The one thing that I'm uncomfortable with regarding my DVC ownership is the number and rate of changes DVC makes.
...Anyway, my best advice to any prospective owner--whether direct or by resale--is to be aware that DVC changes, frequently, but that adjustment to those changes is mostly doable (so far, anyway).
Good observations, and great advice, Dani.
But another observation I've had for a long time here is that we often focus a microscope on trivial changes and features of DVC while ignoring the big, important trends.
To me, the little changes (point reallocations, valet parking, AP discounts, free internet) have been more positive than negative overall. But the BIG trends have all been detrimental to the owners' interests (not to DVC's interests, but to the owners' -- they are
not the same thing!).
I have three main trends that I think are negative, and they all are part of what Brian aptly described as a "maturation" of the DVC program.
SIZE: While the growth of DVC does provide additional options, it also greatly reduces some options. For example, when there were only a couple hundred thousand DVC owners, you stood a pretty good chance of getting into non-home resorts at seven months. Today, with a much larger membership base, the 11-month booking advantage has become much more important and the non-home options have become more difficult. In addition, the likelihood of booking your own home resort inside 7 months has gotten more iffy. This is a trend that's not going away.
BOTTOM-LINE ORIENTATION: We often hear that DVC is not like it used to be, and that is both true and a natural effect of the maturation process. Originally, the main focus of DVC was to create a superior product...and they succeeded. Today, not so much -- and you see it in everything from room cleanliness to valet parking to cheap furniture falling apart at BLT to the lack of basic 20th Century online booking availability. The focus has shifted from product and owner value to Disney profit, and that is also probably a permanent change.
I think DVC will always remain in the upper tier of timeshares, but it will increasingly look more and more like the other good ones.
COST OF OWNERSHIP: The cost of ownership has several components: initial outlay minus any recovery you have if you sell; annual dues; interest costs if you finance; and points costs per night.
DVC owners who bought in the early 90's and sold before 2009 probably made
profits from their initial buyin...and DVC timeshare salesmen still use that historical factoid out of context as a selling point. It's not technically LYING, but it's a historical fact that is no longer true.
The reason was, and is, ROFR. For the first 15 years or so, DVC used ROFR to keep resale prices pretty close to direct prices to assist their sales. For the vast majority of transactions today, however, Disney is no longer using ROFR at all. The obvious result has been a huge decline in resale prices. When I first purchased DVC, I saved about $12 per point buying resale. Today, resale prices are $40 or more below direct.
To the prospective DVC buyer, this trend
should dramatically affect the math. I think this downward trend will continue, because I don't think it really hurts DVD direct sales enough to worry about.
Sensible "traditional" timeshare buyers buy resale for very low entry costs and count on
zero return when they sell. If they get anything back at all, they're thrilled. That's just a clear-headed recognition of reality.
I don't think DVC will ever reach the point where you can buy a 200-point contract on eBay for $1 plus closing. But I think anyone in the market for
DVC today who is counting on recovering more than 20-25% of their original buyin price is either uneducated to this trend or living in a dream world. And that's for buyers paying cash -- for those financing, the math is even worse.
The long-story-short of these trends is that DVC is rapidly maturing into a "traditional timeshare."
I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing, but it's certainly NOT what a lot of DVC owners
thought they were buying.