Recent experience in selling BWV contract

[luvdisneyland]

Actually, I’ve staked out my position when I woke up 8 days ago, thank-you-very-much.

No, DVC value is driven by economic factors and disposable income. 99% of DVC owners are unaware of what a Hilton timeshare on the secondary market is worth. Prices are set on the margin: the marginal DVC buyer has no clue of Hilton or Marriott timeshares, or dues, or rentals. Just because YOU are is irrelevant, because prices are set by the marginal purchaser, who isn’t privy to the secondary timeshare rental market—good grief.

A fraction of DVC buyers are even aware of the resale market, and a fraction of the resale buyers are aware of the rental market. So your argument is the rentals are what drives prices? I think not, but this is a chicken and egg argument so it’s rather pointless. The rental market is much more of a “dumping ground” for sellers not content with prevailing prices, and so they’re “waiting it out” only to now find rentals are hard to get rid of, so now they’re eating annual dues

Case-in-point, I cannot tell you how many contracts that are listed where 2021/22 points are expiring before closing. Sellers are losing thousands of dollars in points they couldn’t use or get rid of. This suggests my previous argument above stands true: a lot of people aren’t aware of the rental market.

Finally, trees don’t grow to the sky. I’ve made the case several times on other posts: Disney has hit the top they can charge. Everyone points out Disney hikes prices every year and the same has been said for decades; however, the price of deluxe hotels for standard rooms hit $1000/night at Contemporary. So for a week, you’re asking $7k plus taxes for a family to stay in a studio. People think that’ll double because, hey, when they went 5 years ago it was half that. Again, trees don’t grow to the sky.

Above $10k for a vacation, you’re crossing into home remodeling and car purchases. When Disney cost $2-10k you were in an area where people had MANY choices/trade offs/substitutes. That’s why Disney has been able to raise prices and it’s become muscle memory and a foregone conclusion. It used to be deciding between upgrading a couple appliances vs. take that dream Disney vacation. Somehow people think it’ll shift to buying a car vs. that dream Disney vacation. But that’s what you have to believe if you honestly think Disney prices “will only go up, because that’s what’s been going on since 1971!” But just as a 20 foot tree can grow to 50, that doesn’t mean it’s going to grow to 100 feet. People seem to not understand this.

DVC competes with Disney hotels. Disney hotels can discount and bundle to get people in rooms. DVC dues are fixed and escalating. There’s no relief. You’re holding a timeshare you bought at $30-50k or more and having to service what’s an extra mortgage payment or more to have a hotel room for a week. Let’s see: car loans are 72-84 months today, phones are now 36 months vs 24 months before for trade in programs….it seems like the consumer is so tapped they have to stretch payments in perpetuity in order to “afford” anything.

Doom and gloom? Nah, it’s reality. Interesting how DVC can go from $60-100pp direct to $150-300pp resale and people puff their chests at what a great deal it is. Then the moment it descends back to $100pp, it’s “doom and gloom.” Human psychology is interesting. To say it’s doom and gloom that I think a timeshare contract will go from $30k to $20k that has a mortgage payment as the annual carrying cost on top of it speaks to the irrationality tied up in the marketplace.

We realize you want so badly for your apocalyptic theory to be true so you can convince yourself that someone will give you their DVC contract for free. However, history proves you wrong. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but it is just that. Most here have enough common sense to know the difference between a correction and a crash. You are obviously extremely new to this 2/3/23

 

[DonMacGregor]

We realize you want so badly for your apocalyptic theory to be true so you can convince yourself that someone will give you their DVC contract for free. However, history proves you wrong. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but it is just that. Most here have enough common sense to know the difference between a correction and a crash. You are obviously extremely new to this 2/3/23

Looks like even cash guests haven't reached their spend breaking point either...

Disneyland visitor spending increases despite 20% smaller crowds during holidays

"Shifting Disneyland's attendance mix from annual passholders to daily guests who spend more on food, souvenirs and upgrades has helped manage capacity without hurting profits."

​

 

[Stank]

We realize you want so badly for your apocalyptic theory to be true so you can convince yourself that someone will give you their DVC contract for free. However, history proves you wrong. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but it is just that. Most here have enough common sense to know the difference between a correction and a crash. You are obviously extremely new to this 2/3/23

Well, that’s an interesting take given DVC resale prices have ALREADY collapsed $40-70pp in the past year given the resort—-the deepest fall in DVC history. It’s like you’re showing up after halftime of the Super Bowl unaware the kickoff you’re watching isn’t the start of the game, but halfway through it. It’s rather perplexing so many in the DVC community maintain this, “Oh, shucks, we just don’t know what will happen, doomsayer!! Ah-yuck!” Completely ignoring Grand Cal is $230pp when months ago it was $300. Or that BLT is now $140 list when it was $190-200 in 2022. I find it interesting BLT prices have already backed off and fallen an additional $5pp in the past week alone.

I may be new here, but I’m not new to DVC. And I’m not hoping someone gifts me DVC for free. I’m just pointing out how it’s funny BLT has fallen from $190 to now $140 and the apocalypse isn’t here….yet if I so much as suggest it falls $140 to $100pp, why, that’s the end of the world!! A timeshare going for $20k instead of $30k—-what a shock!! What’s more, that $20k timeshare is being “given” to me at $20k. Sheesh…sounds like a car dealer when you offer $20k for something that Blue Books for that and they cry and make it seem like you’re taking their leg.

I’d like to say “we’ll see what happens” but I’m afraid we’re already seeing what’s happening: DVC prices are cratering and supply is 2,700 listings, or 4x normal. Soooo…where’s this demand swooping in to stabilize the market? How do DVC prices stabilize and go up with 4x the supply of listings?? Because prices have already cratered and supply is superabundant, and really we haven’t had desperate selling levels with people losing jobs en masse.

I just have this strange feeling all the people thinking I’m preaching the end of times would’ve had the same take one year ago if I suggested BLT would be $140pp in February 2023. I have to laugh, because I’m sure plenty would wager their contract that wouldn’t be the case…in which case, yes, I suppose that would be giving me DVC for free.

Prediction: BLT is lower one year from today. I’ll say BLT will be closer to $100pp than it’ll be to today.

 

[Lulubelle17]

I just thought that I'd post a timeline of my recent sale of my Boardwalk Villa contract. It was August UY with 29 2022 points, 200 for 2023 and 200 for 2024 and was done through the https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/ a sponsor of this site.

- Contract listed on 8/30/2022 for $149 per point. This was the recommended amount that the broker said would be a good starting point. At this time IIRC there were 42 other BWV contracts up for sale at the site.
- On 10/11/2022 I requested that the price be lowered to $147 per point since there had not been one single offer made at this point. A couple years ago I sold three other BWV contracts which had multiple offers and were sold within a month.
- On 12/1/2022 I requested that the price be lowered to $144 per point as I've yet to receive an offer.
- On 12/16/2022 I requested the price be lowered to $139 per point, still no offers.

Just so you know I was not in a big rush to sell these contracts. It wasn't like I was going through a divorce or bankrupt and needed the cash, I just wanted to cut my ties with Disney. But I was starting to get concerned that things weren't turning around since the broker was now lowering the price they said was a good starting point for newer sales and the number of contracts on their site for sale kept increasing. Was the economy and interest rates going up slowing things down? Was the 2042 end date for BWV starting to play a role in slowing sales? All I know was I was not seeing things turn around in a while so I took the broker up on an offer that they have where they will buy your contract, at a reduced price. I had asked them about this program back in November and the would pay $123 per point with that price guaranteed for 45 days, so on December 20th I took them up on that offer and as of January 27th the title company has closed the contract.

And just for a point of reference, the broker now shows 62 BWV contracts and they recommend a selling price of $136/PP and their instant buying offer is $112/PP.

Sorry for the stupid question, but does the broker still have to pass ROFR when they buy your contact with the instant buying offer?

 

[Matty B13]

Sorry for the stupid question, but does the broker still have to pass ROFR when they buy your contact with the instant buying offer?

Yes, even gratuitous transfer to family members still has to get an ROFT waiver from DVC.

 

[Lulubelle17]

Yes, even gratuitous transfer to family members still has to get an ROFT waiver from DVC.

Thank you for the clarification. So if that passes, wouldn't that help set a new low price for that resort?

 

[Bearval]

The prices on this broker’s listings, as well as a few others, are too high. They need to adjust as quickly as the market is. I offered well below listed price on two contracts they had. I quickly realized that it was not worth my time to do so. I got a better response and service, thus far, elsewhere.

What I find amazing is that there are "newer" listings ( less than 6 days old) with higher pricing per point that are exactly the same or very similar ( number of points, points banked, UY etc.) to contracts that are several weeks to several months old already. These brokers are not doing anyone any favors by not sharing/telling the sellers their asking price is too high and will not sell at that price at this time.

 

[Bearval]

Thank you for the clarification. So if that passes, wouldn't that help set a new low price for that resort?

A gratuitous transfer is generally a "gift". You may run the risk of the contract being ROFR if there is a documented exchange of funds for the property.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Yes, even gratuitous transfer to family members still has to get an ROFT waiver from DVC.

Although a gratuitous transfer is not held to the “ pricing” threshold as it is with a regular sale. It’s basically a formality.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

What I find amazing is that there are "newer" listings ( less than 6 days old) with higher pricing per point that are exactly the same or very similar ( number of points, points banked, UY etc.) to contracts that are several weeks to several months old already. These brokers are not doing anyone any favors by not sharing/telling the sellers their asking price is too high and will not sell at that price at this time.

I believe on one of the more recent podcasts on DVC Fan, DVC Resale Market came out and did just this. Explained how inventory has increased and is driving the sales price down. However, the brokers need to do a better job and present lower offers, not just lowering the sales prices.

 

[Brian Noble]

These brokers are not doing anyone any favors by not sharing/telling the sellers their asking price is too high and will not sell at that price at this time.

There is saying it. And there is hearing it. Both have to happen, and we don’t know which one is missing.

 

[RamblinWreck]

Hmm. That's what people told us. But they were wrong. We financed. Paid it off 20 years ago. It was terrific for us, in fact.

It's great that it worked out!

It was certainly risky though, I don't think anyone would argue that!

 

[Sandisw]

Well, that’s an interesting take given DVC resale prices have ALREADY collapsed $40-70pp in the past year given the resort—-the deepest fall in DVC history. It’s like you’re showing up after halftime of the Super Bowl unaware the kickoff you’re watching isn’t the start of the game, but halfway through it. It’s rather perplexing so many in the DVC community maintain this, “Oh, shucks, we just don’t know what will happen, doomsayer!! Ah-yuck!” Completely ignoring Grand Cal is $230pp when months ago it was $300. Or that BLT is now $140 list when it was $190-200 in 2022. I find it interesting BLT prices have already backed off and fallen an additional $5pp in the past week alone.

I may be new here, but I’m not new to DVC. And I’m not hoping someone gifts me DVC for free. I’m just pointing out how it’s funny BLT has fallen from $190 to now $140 and the apocalypse isn’t here….yet if I so much as suggest it falls $140 to $100pp, why, that’s the end of the world!! A timeshare going for $20k instead of $30k—-what a shock!! What’s more, that $20k timeshare is being “given” to me at $20k. Sheesh…sounds like a car dealer when you offer $20k for something that Blue Books for that and they cry and make it seem like you’re taking their leg.

I’d like to say “we’ll see what happens” but I’m afraid we’re already seeing what’s happening: DVC prices are cratering and supply is 2,700 listings, or 4x normal. Soooo…where’s this demand swooping in to stabilize the market? How do DVC prices stabilize and go up with 4x the supply of listings?? Because prices have already cratered and supply is superabundant, and really we haven’t had desperate selling levels with people losing jobs en masse.

I just have this strange feeling all the people thinking I’m preaching the end of times would’ve had the same take one year ago if I suggested BLT would be $140pp in February 2023. I have to laugh, because I’m sure plenty would wager their contract that wouldn’t be the case…in which case, yes, I suppose that would be giving me DVC for free.

Prediction: BLT is lower one year from today. I’ll say BLT will be closer to $100pp than it’ll be to today.

I will be shocked to see BLT that low, I am not sure the average selling of BLT was $190…I think it ranged $170 to $180…and IMO, that was overpriced and influenced by DVD using ROFR on it at lower levels.

What I think we are now seeing is that correcting back to a normal level for its value because DVD has stepped away.

We shall see what it looks like in a year from now, but I just believe that if you have BLT in the $120s to $140#, those contracts won’t sit long…it will be the less popular resorts that take the hit.

 

[nalabear]

I will be shocked to see BLT that low, I am not sure the average selling of BLT was $190…I think it ranged $170 to $180…and IMO, that was overpriced and influenced by DVD using ROFR on it at lower levels.

What I think we are now seeing is that correcting back to a normal level for its value because DVD has stepped away.

We shall see what it looks like in a year from now, but I just believe that if you have BLT in the $120s to $140#, those contracts won’t sit long…it will be the less popular resorts that take the hit.

Exactly. DVC isn't collapsing. There's certainly a correction - even a bear market level which is predictable in all things real estate. Sensitivity to market: Timeshare > Condos > regular real estate > prime real estate. There was a super white hot market in 2021 into early-2022 then inflation hit and market topped out.

VGC went from 170s > 280s in two years. That's crazy hot. now it's 240s and probably will settle at 200-220s where it probably should live.

Correction/Buyer's market? Yes. Collapse? Nope.

 

[RamblinWreck]

Well, that’s an interesting take given DVC resale prices have ALREADY collapsed $40-70pp in the past year given the resort—-the deepest fall in DVC history. It’s like you’re showing up after halftime of the Super Bowl unaware the kickoff you’re watching isn’t the start of the game, but halfway through it. It’s rather perplexing so many in the DVC community maintain this, “Oh, shucks, we just don’t know what will happen, doomsayer!! Ah-yuck!” Completely ignoring Grand Cal is $230pp when months ago it was $300. Or that BLT is now $140 list when it was $190-200 in 2022. I find it interesting BLT prices have already backed off and fallen an additional $5pp in the past week alone.

I may be new here, but I’m not new to DVC. And I’m not hoping someone gifts me DVC for free. I’m just pointing out how it’s funny BLT has fallen from $190 to now $140 and the apocalypse isn’t here….yet if I so much as suggest it falls $140 to $100pp, why, that’s the end of the world!! A timeshare going for $20k instead of $30k—-what a shock!! What’s more, that $20k timeshare is being “given” to me at $20k. Sheesh…sounds like a car dealer when you offer $20k for something that Blue Books for that and they cry and make it seem like you’re taking their leg.

I’d like to say “we’ll see what happens” but I’m afraid we’re already seeing what’s happening: DVC prices are cratering and supply is 2,700 listings, or 4x normal. Soooo…where’s this demand swooping in to stabilize the market? How do DVC prices stabilize and go up with 4x the supply of listings?? Because prices have already cratered and supply is superabundant, and really we haven’t had desperate selling levels with people losing jobs en masse.

I just have this strange feeling all the people thinking I’m preaching the end of times would’ve had the same take one year ago if I suggested BLT would be $140pp in February 2023. I have to laugh, because I’m sure plenty would wager their contract that wouldn’t be the case…in which case, yes, I suppose that would be giving me DVC for free.

Prediction: BLT is lower one year from today. I’ll say BLT will be closer to $100pp than it’ll be to today.

Grand Californian probably isn't the best example. Their resale prices were propped up massively by the fact that it is so small and is the only Disneyland DVC resort. Which is no longer going to be the case.

 

[sndral]

I am a bit concerned with DVC with regards to Disney’s restructuring and cuts. Does Disney even care about proping up DVC pricing? They are cutting 7,000 jobs, reorganizing, and cutting budgets. This has me nervous as to the long game Disney has with DVC. Big article out today about it.

My suspicion is that the re-org & cost cutting was to enable Disney to resume stockholder dividend payments to fend off corporate raider Peltz’s proxy battle https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/media/bob-iger-disney-nelson-peltz/index.html. Disney’s projections are that streaming will become profitable in 2024 & I suspect that dividends would have returned at that point anyway, but due to Peltz‘ pressure they needed to pay their shareholders earlier, thus the cost cutting.
They’ll need to squeeze every penny of profit they can from their profit makers so the present course of providing less (cost cutting) while charging more (pricing) will continue. Direct sales have slowed so I could see them slowing Poly 2’s construction timeline down & cheapening the build, but I doubt they’ll pull a Reflections (DVC) or a Legends (cash rooms) & abandon the project.

 

[Stank]

Exactly. DVC isn't collapsing. There's certainly a correction - even a bear market level which is predictable in all things real estate. Sensitivity to market: Timeshare > Condos > regular real estate > prime real estate. There was a super white hot market in 2021 into early-2022 then inflation hit and market topped out.

VGC went from 170s > 280s in two years. That's crazy hot. now it's 240s and probably will settle at 200-220s where it probably should live.

Correction/Buyer's market? Yes. Collapse? Nope.

We haven’t even had a massive economic shock and DVC prices are falling hard and fast. You also have a dynamic that hasn’t existed before with DVC: people having bought contracts significantly higher than the prevailing prices. While some may argue that’s good proof people will “hold on” to at least get their money back—that’s not how markets actually work. For consumer goods mistaken as investments (primary homes, timeshares, etc), as prices go up, people confusingly buy more; as prices go down, people panic and sell more. This is unlike consumer goods everyone knows are consumer goods (food, vacations, TVs, etc.).

DVC had panic buying 2021-2022. Now you’re seeing panic selling. People panic bought VGC at $300, BLT at $190-200. People aren’t panic buying at $230 and $140, respectively. There are panic sellers, though.

I’m told cheap contracts won’t sit long on the market…yet I’m staring at the lowest DVC prices I’ve seen in many years, and we have 2,700 listings. Soooo, where’s the demand?

Oh and the yield curve is massively inverted. Banks haven’t raised deposit rates anywhere like they have before precisely because raising deposit rates would create massive losses. They have many 5-30 year loans at 3-5%. If they had to pay their creditors (depositors) what the Fed funds rate is (over 4%), they’d quickly lose billions a quarter as their loan portfolios would invert.

Now what we are seeing is cash flee banks and go to money markets as people are tired of 0.1% interest rates when money markets are fetching 4%. So yeah, looking out at the economy, there are serious concerns that people are moving cash to higher yielding accounts, which will create an deep recession. I can point this out now and be ridiculed because most people don’t know there’s a problem until it’s blatantly obvious. Even then I get pushback—helloooooo, BLT is $140 and falling and you’ve internalized it. Had I said BLT would be $140 several months ago, you’d roll your eyes and
dismiss it.

 

[Stank]

I will be shocked to see BLT that low, I am not sure the average selling of BLT was $190…I think it ranged $170 to $180…and IMO, that was overpriced and influenced by DVD using ROFR on it at lower levels.

What I think we are now seeing is that correcting back to a normal level for its value because DVD has stepped away.

We shall see what it looks like in a year from now, but I just believe that if you have BLT in the $120s to $140#, those contracts won’t sit long…it will be the less popular resorts that take the hit.

That’s all fair. I may be completely wrong. My read of things is we haven’t had big time layoffs across the economy yet DVC prices have cooled substantially, and will fall further as we get into 2023.

There are a lot of people who panic bought DVC at prices we will never see again barring another glob of stimulus checks. There are a lot of people holding contracts for the purpose of rental income, and rentals are superabundant. There’s a lot of overhang in the DVC market.

Had anyone told you in February 2022 that BLT would be $140 in February 2023, I think everyone here would’ve scoffed at that/called it doomsayer nonsense. Yet here we are. The complacent and dismissive, “Yeah, so what.” Is the headscratcher for me.

Guys, BLT is $140 and falling. I think the overall numbness and disbelief have lulled people into gradually accepting and normalizing just how far and fast DVC has, yes, collapsed. In a deep recession, timeshares are tough sales. People don’t have to go to Disney. Those that do don’t have to stay on property, let alone buy in at DVC. You can rent houses for a week for half the dues of DVC. There’s just a lot of substitution people will be doing. Walmart is noting more traffic from affluent customers. People are trading down across the board, whether DVC owners want to hear it or not.

 

[tellingson]

That’s all fair. I may be completely wrong. My read of things is we haven’t had big time layoffs across the economy yet DVC prices have cooled substantially, and will fall further as we get into 2023.

There are a lot of people who panic bought DVC at prices we will never see again barring another glob of stimulus checks. There are a lot of people holding contracts for the purpose of rental income, and rentals are superabundant. There’s a lot of overhang in the DVC market.

Had anyone told you in February 2022 that BLT would be $140 in February 2023, I think everyone here would’ve scoffed at that/called it doomsayer nonsense. Yet here we are. The complacent and dismissive, “Yeah, so what.” Is the headscratcher for me.

Guys, BLT is $140 and falling. I think the overall numbness and disbelief have lulled people into gradually accepting and normalizing just how far and fast DVC has, yes, collapsed. In a deep recession, timeshares are tough sales. People don’t have to go to Disney. Those that do don’t have to stay on property, let alone buy in at DVC. You can rent houses for a week for half the dues of DVC. There’s just a lot of substitution people will be doing. Walmart is noting more traffic from affluent customers. People are trading down across the board, whether DVC owners want to hear it or not.

I understand your arguments, but I’m not sure what your goal in making them is.

 

[Stank]

I understand your arguments, but I’m not sure what your goal in making them is.

I suppose the same goal as anyone agreeing or saying otherwise. Note the forum is, “Purchasing DVC,” that’s implied there’s a general consensus in interest over the DVC market. So, I’m stating my view on the market as others disagree. Again, human psychology is interesting—I’ll venture a guess that no perma-bull on DVC pricing has ever been confronted with, “I don’t get what your purpose is.” If someone typed VGC to $500, people would find it entertaining and innocuous. If I type BLT $100, why, that’s met with hostility.