Well, in one sense it won't ever be. The market is constantly growing on the young end. Some of the people buying Poly points were in college or high school when the likes of BCV and SSR were selling.
As long as that new business grows at a faster rate than older members selling-off unwanted points,
DVC will remain healthy.
But I think DVC is also trying to change the program's identity. MY original motivation for buying DVC was to have access to the larger One and Two Bedroom villas. But not everyone shares that mindset. Walt Disney World successfully fills 20,000 - 25,000 hotel rooms every single night...even at its inflated rates.
Poly rooms often run $500-600 per night, plus tax. Let's assume some pretty healthy discounting and use a figure of $400 per night. A 7-day / 6-night stay will run about $2400.
Those same 6 nights cost 99-110 DVC points in the two cheapest seasons. At $160 per point, figure $18k up front.
Even with annual dues, it will pay for itself in less than 10 years...with 40 years of discounted trips remaining. Disney wraps it all up in an affordable monthly payment.
Forget what we know about resale. Timeshare sales have always thrived on the uninformed. *I* could sell DVC points at those numbers.
I think we have to abandon any personal bias that many of us have for the larger villas. Many people are still quite content with a Studio-sized accommodation--particularly with the split bathroom and large square footage of the Poly.
