Purchasing DVC Analysis

[RoseGold]

Would somewhere like Alumni make sense as a second resale contract if you’ve got no ambition to go there but want to bump your points for as little as possible?

I wouldn't buy a timeshare in Hawaii at all, given their law changes, evolving tax situation, and their probate laws. I definitely wouldn't want two states, if I already had a FL timeshare. Maybe your crystal ball is different than mine.

Aulani in particular seems like a lovely resort, but not one I'd want to own. It won't be sold out for many years, if ever. It is competing with other, newer timeshares and hotels that are focused on Hawaii and do it well, and on the DVC side it is competing with WDW itself.

If you want a second resale contract as cheaply as possible, I'd stick with good old SSR, unless you want to run out the clock on a 2042 (OKW/BR) or want a longer contract (BLT/Poly). SSR has been the best overall choice for this for many years.

 

[RoseGold]

I bought VGF because I thought it still had room to run, which is what this chart shows. BLT has recently gotten a huge bump, as it should have, from its excellent chart and location, and I think VGF will also reflect its excellent location and chart that will be looking better as points continue to inflate.

From these charts, Poly seems to show similar behavior.

 

[badeacon]

Is he average PPP counting all the prices, including the ones taken ROFR or just the ones that passed?

 

[KPeterso]

VGC – I mean 87% increase, Holy Cow!!!! If you got a $140 contract in 2017 you are laughing now. Resale saving is low but contract volumes are low and in high demand.

Thanks for this analysis. Very interesting. And I loved the comment about those who bought in 2017 laughing at the price now. I bought a VGC in late 2017 for $152/point, but it was a small contract (so always a little higher) and I did not want to lose the contract over a couple dollars per point and less than $500 overall. And when i look at the price now, I know I got an amazing deal! Could sell for close to $75 per point more than I paid 3.5 years ago. Oh and then my direct points from there could sell for over $100/point more than I paid in 2009. But alas, I have 0 plans to sell my VGC since I am a CA local and use those points only at VGC.

 

[upritbass]

AKV took a big jump in 2018 because Avatar opened and the AK park hours were permanently extended.

 

[RoseGold]

AKV took a big jump in 2018 because Avatar opened and the AK park hours were permanently extended.

Eh, I don't think it's Animal Kingdom itself. I think AKL as a timeshare has been doing so well because it's in the middle sweet spot between the 2042 resorts and the expensive longer contracts and newer charts (BLT/Poly).

AKL is a good 11 month booking and an approachable price and chart. These things overall make it good value for someone who doesn't want to expire in 2042, but doesn't want to put up the cash for a BLT purchase.

 

[upritbass]

Yes, that is what happened. AKV prices were flat, took a sudden $22/pt jump when Avatar opened, and has since been flat again.
The same thing happened for BWV when Star Wars opened.

 

[Ruttangel]

Good work!

Just curious, how did you calculate the average price of resale points? For example, if contract one has 50 points, selling for 200 per point, contract 2 has 500 points, selling for 100 per point, then what will be the average price? One way is (200+100)/2=150, the other way would be 50x200+500x100, then divided by 550, result is 110.

It’s the average PPP from the ROFR thread. Across a whole year it’s easy to ignore the small and large contract differences. 2021 might be slightly skewed as we are only 2 months in but there was enough data to make it worth posting. Only RIV didn’t have enough listings

 

[DisneyMountainWoman]

Damn... wish we bought earlier, but we did not have the money earlier, I look at the AKL prices.... but yeah right now I see prices even higher than you have it for AKL.

 

[Spinster Travel]

Thanks for creating/sharing! Love this type of analysis even when I'm not actively hunting for a contract. I know I'll be looking for more points at the end of the year and this will be great to have on hand....plus its fun to watch the trends (I work in finance so numbers are my jam LOL)

 

[JETSDAD]

PVB – Lack of ROFR keeping prices low, one to watch – could see a big resale price increase if DVC start buying back a lot.

And just like that.."Until this past February, DVCRM had only two Polynesian contracts ever purchased back through ROFR going back to when Polynesian first entered the resale market in 2016. This past month, there were nine Polynesian contracts bought back. This is a dramatic uptick for a resort that went mostly untouched in ROFR."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1367545744006279176

 

[Lumee23]

Very interesting and thank you for sharing!

For the 2018 increase wasn't 2016-2017ish when the strategy of DVC point rentals became a lot more mainstream? Perhaps those increased renters translated into increased owners? I wish we would have been in the financial position to buy in 2017!

 

[Spinster Travel]

And just like that.."Until this past February, DVCRM had only two Polynesian contracts ever purchased back through ROFR going back to when Polynesian first entered the resale market in 2016. This past month, there were nine Polynesian contracts bought back. This is a dramatic uptick for a resort that went mostly untouched in ROFR."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1367545744006279176

Yep....closed on my PVB resale contract in September at $140/pp. I think I got about as good as I could before ROFR started happening for the Poly.

 

[Hopfather28]

And just like that.."Until this past February, DVCRM had only two Polynesian contracts ever purchased back through ROFR going back to when Polynesian first entered the resale market in 2016. This past month, there were nine Polynesian contracts bought back. This is a dramatic uptick for a resort that went mostly untouched in ROFR."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1367545744006279176

I picked up my first contract during the mid-spring dip caused by Covid. I'm glad I did because no way would $120pp work now. Since it's so easy to book Poly at 7 months maybe I should flip it and buy as many AKV or SSR points as I can with the proceeds. HAHA!

 

[TeamRiley]

Would somewhere like Alumni make sense as a second resale contract if you’ve got no ambition to go there but want to bump your points for as little as possible?

just to give me more options at WDW

a Subsidized Aulani contract is the best deal in DVC - if you can find one. And if you stay in it until it expires

 

[E2ME2]

I've shown below some of my workings based on average PPP from @pangyal @ScubaCat ROFR thread and I didn't want to clutter that up.
I'll put my analysis up next but would be interested in anyone's views.
*the resale figure is average price from ROFR thread

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Great data, succinctly presented!
Of course, the 2021 data has plenty of time to unfold.....
Thanks for doing this!
I bought resale at SSR & BCV last year, and just made an offer on AKV for this year.
For those 3 resorts, I pieced together some similar data, but having this across all resorts in such an organized way is very handy.

 

[DVC Doctor]

this is an excellent analysis...well done

 

[Lee Matthews]

Personally speaking, no, unless it’s a sub $80 offer.
If you run out of your AKV points then I would just buy more there so you can combine at 11 months.
Unless there is another resort you love.
I added a resale at BWV for walking to 2 parks, but that was 70pts at $100ppt.
If you are just talking economical purchases then look below
SSR is the go to resort for Sleep Anywhere Points (SAP) but I do think PVB/VGF are solid buys right now with a possible higher growth than other resorts.
BLT would be good too but it’s getting heavily ROFRd
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-spring-2020/

just a thought. TBH, if we are successful in the AKL offer that’s fine fir ROFR then my aim within a couple of years is To probably add another 100-120 points cash onto AKL. There isn’t any other resorts I would want to own as a home resort

 

[Yinn]

I've shown below some of my workings based on average PPP from @pangyal @ScubaCat ROFR thread and I didn't want to clutter that up.
I'll put my analysis up next but would be interested in anyone's views.
*the resale figure is average price from ROFR thread

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It's some great analysis!

As much as I'm in on the PVB train, it should have started it's rebound by now. I'm starting to wonder if it will ever rebound.

 

[CarolMN]

It's some great analysis!

As much as I'm in on the PVB train, it should have started it's rebound by now. I'm starting to wonder if it will ever rebound.

Maybe after the hotel reopens. I think interest is " on hold" because of the construction/rehab activity that is occurring right now.