Purchasing DVC Analysis

[Ruttangel]

I've shown below some of my workings based on average PPP from @pangyal @ScubaCat ROFR thread and I didn't want to clutter that up.
I'll put my analysis up next but would be interested in anyone's views.
*the resale figure is average price from ROFR thread

 

[Ruttangel]

Quick analysis
I’m not touching on Dues here, that’s one for another day
Overall – big jump in Resale PPP in 2018, I haven’t worked out what that is yet?

AKV – Resale values have out-run the increase in direct, is a drop due? AKV and SSR by far biggest contract volumes and prices influenced by what is going to get through ROFR. Contracts were going through at $90-$99 last year but ROFR seems to have started again now.

AUL – Honestly, why not just go around offering $70 a point, never been ROFR’d.

BCV – Low level taken in last 2 years has helped bring resale PPP down a bit. Direct price is pretty much non-sensical.

BLT – Solid increases in resale and direct, ROFR has recently been painful, pushing average price up.

BRV – Is now $34 PPP cheaper direct than CCV, that value will surely keep growing.

BWV – More heavily ROFR’d than BCV, pushing it’s price up.

CCV – Small data samples – direct cost is going up so will eventually be followed by resale once contracts get taken by DVC.

HHI – Direct and resale tracking each other well – those taken by ROFR appears to have slowed

OKW – high ROFR rate – it’s the old ROFR a 2042 contract and make it a 2057 contract trick

OKW-E – Resale at $110 and Direct at $165 – if it’s a 50pt contract at $130, you’re getting into the realms of buying direct if you can get the current UY points added as well

PVB – Lack of ROFR keeping prices low, one to watch – could see a big resale price increase if DVC start buying back a lot.

SSR – Similar to OKW-E, low point contracts may be not far off a direct price. Very high ROFR rates keeping prices fairly high.

VB – Resale increasing but Direct prices going nowhere

VGC – I mean 87% increase, Holy Cow!!!! If you got a $140 contract in 2017 you are laughing now. Resale saving is low but contract volumes are low and in high demand.

VGF – Disney is pushing direct price up and up, this is my No.1 resort tip for future growth of a resale contract. Only time will tell, don’t burn your money on my recommendation!

 

[Lee Matthews]

Great thread.
I’m still holding out of my AKL $106 pp going through ROFR but I’m not hopefully now as it seems we went in based on what we could of expected last year.
If direct price has increased so then maybe both us and seller have undervalued in Disney’s eyes

 

[WDWEPCOT]

Quick question - where are you getting the current price for AKL? The reason I ask I’m selling some contracts and on a another site they had a tool where you could punch in what points you have and use year and it gave you an estimate value per point for your contract - the numbers were running about $116 to $125 for most contracts depending if you had current points or if the contract was stripped
I’m not arguing with your numbers I find them very informative and interesting and I appreciate your work as I find this very interesting and you did a lot of research - thank you! I was just wondering about where your number is coming from
Thank you!!

 

[Ruttangel]

Quick question - where are you getting the current price for AKL? The reason I ask I’m selling some contracts and on a another site they had a tool where you could punch in what points you have and use year and it gave you an estimate value per point for your contract - the numbers were running about $116 to $125 for most contracts depending if you had current points or if the contract was stripped
I’m not arguing with your numbers I find them very informative and interesting and I appreciate your work as I find this very interesting and you did a lot of research - thank you! I was just wondering about where your number is coming from
Thank you!!

They are all straight from the ROFR thread. Your sale price will likely by $5-10 higher and then people will try to haggle you down. It will also depend on number of points on the contract and stripped/loaded factors.

 

[Ruttangel]

Great thread.
I’m still holding out of my AKL $106 pp going through ROFR but I’m not hopefully now as it seems we went in based on what we could of expected last year.
If direct price has increased so then maybe both us and seller have undervalued in Disney’s eyes

I think $106 would have been fine any time in last 18 months, just seems Disney is snagging some up right now

 

[WDWEPCOT]

I agree - funny the place I listed with wanted me to list way lower than I did - I didn’t for the very reasons you posted as I assumed I would / will be offered $10 or so less per point - which was the case on one contract - I countered a higher amount slightly above what the site said the value was and the buyer accepted - it’s a stripped contract so I am very happy
I am wondering now if Disney will snatch it because they want points (?)
Thank You again for this it’s very interesting !!

 

[gskywalker]

Thanks so much. I just love looking at analysis of numbers(I really should have become an accountant). Only issue is you gave away my $70 a point for aulani secret,, lol

 

[gskywalker]

Seeing the analysis, I wonder if Aul will keep dropping. I don't see how it can, the value I got was so insane, eventually people will come in to buy them for stay around points like I did.

 

[Bobby2443]

Great info thanks!

 

[princesscinderella]

Thanks so much for compiling this data!! It’s a great resource.

 

[Ruttangel]

Seeing the analysis, I wonder if Aul will keep dropping. I don't see how it can, the value I got was so insane, eventually people will come in to buy them for stay around points like I did.

I think it would need to sell out and then ROFR to kick in to see a big increase.
However, I think it will get back to $100 soon, simply due to direct price increases. I also haven’t separated subsidised contracts which are sold at a premium.

 

[gskywalker]

I think it would need to sell out and then ROFR to kick in to see a big increase.
However, I think it will get back to $100 soon, simply due to direct price increases. I also haven’t separated subsidised contracts which are sold at a premium.

I would have loved a subsidized contract but in the 3 months I was trying to buy resale I never saw a single one in my use year(Feb) so when my lowball offer was accepted, for some reason I was ok with it.

 

[Ruttangel]

I would have loved a subsidized contract but in the 3 months I was trying to buy resale I never saw a single one in my use year(Feb) so when my lowball offer was accepted, for some reason I was ok with it.

Yeah, you would be paying $100ppt now for a subsidized contract, so you have many years of dues covered!!
Well played.

 

[Lee Matthews]

Would somewhere like Alumni make sense as a second resale contract if you’ve got no ambition to go there but want to bump your points for as little as possible?

just to give me more options at WDW

 

[Ruttangel]

Would somewhere like Aulani make sense as a second resale contract if you’ve got no ambition to go there but want to bump your points for as little as possible?

just to give me more options at WDW

Personally speaking, no, unless it’s a sub $80 offer.
If you run out of your AKV points then I would just buy more there so you can combine at 11 months.
Unless there is another resort you love.
I added a resale at BWV for walking to 2 parks, but that was 70pts at $100ppt.
If you are just talking economical purchases then look below
SSR is the go to resort for Sleep Anywhere Points (SAP) but I do think PVB/VGF are solid buys right now with a possible higher growth than other resorts.
BLT would be good too but it’s getting heavily ROFRd
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-spring-2020/

 

[CarolMN]

@Ruttangel -Thank you for sharing your analyses. Always fun to see these.

I've always thought that the prices in ROFR threads are lower than whatever the "true" average would be, if we could ever even know what that was, LOL. IMO, those who believe they got better deals post their results a whole lot more often than those who don't. (No one seems to want to admit they "overpaid" compared to others). Also, the ROFR thread lags the current market by a month or so and if the market is especially volatile it probably isn't a particularly great indicator.

That said, I'm very glad we have the data from DIS posters to give us at least an idea of what's happening in the resale market, and I am very grateful to @pangyal and @ScubaCat for the time they have spent making this tool available to us.

 

[Ruttangel]

@Ruttangel -Thank you for sharing your analyses. Always fun to see these.

I've always thought that the prices in ROFR threads are lower than whatever the "true" average would be, if we could ever even know what that was, LOL. IMO, those who believe they got better deals post their results a whole lot more often than those who didn't. (No one seems to want to admit they "overpaid" compared to others). Also, the ROFR thread lags the current market by a month or so and if the market is especially volatile it probably isn't a particularly great indicator.

That said, I'm very glad we have the data from DIS posters to give us at least an idea of what's happening in the resale market, and I am very grateful to @pangyal and @ScubaCat for the time they have spent making this tool available to us.

Haha, well I’ve got 3 contracts on the thread so at least I know they are right!

 

[starfrenzy]

Thanks so much for this wonderful info. Very interesting and I like your points of analysis for each, too.

 

[BlackTea]

Good work!

Just curious, how did you calculate the average price of resale points? For example, if contract one has 50 points, selling for 200 per point, contract 2 has 500 points, selling for 100 per point, then what will be the average price? One way is (200+100)/2=150, the other way would be 50x200+500x100, then divided by 550, result is 110.