Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios/ some 1-bedrooms (Prepared 2015)

[skier_pete]

i echo the sentiments of others. Thanks for sharing your work with the rest of us! Very much appreciated! I'm considering purchasing vgf resale and another poster directed me to your link. Very informative! We typically travel early to mid December and early February. I was planning on purchasing enough points to cover two trips in a studio but others suggested that I would be better off getting enough points to get a 1br for the December trip. Based on your research I now see why. I don't know if you can answer this or not but I'm trying to determine exactly how quickly the studios fill up in December. Is it a case where they are gone by the end of the first day or is it a matter of minutes after 8am? Thanks

In early December it can be gone within seconds of 8am - if you are 8:01 you'll likely not get a studio.

The answer to this question question is that it depends on location. The more popular locations and categories can fill up at 8:01 AM on the 11 month day for certain days in the first week of December. However, this is not true of all resorts and room categories. VGF fills very fast. BWV Standard does. AKV value does - but there are only 18 rooms. As I've stated elsewhere I think owners at the new WLV-CC will see a big issue with getting studios at 11 months. However, most of the room categories are not going to disappear at 8:01 AM @ 11 months. Even BCV and WLV-BR - very popular holiday resorts - are routinely available for a several weeks before they are filled up, even in a studios.

If you travel early december though - I would definitely take that into consideration with what your home resort is, because availability at 7 months is essentially nil, so you would definitely want to own a property that you don't have to struggle with. I would avoid VGF and the new CC for that reason. Anywhere else you should be fine in a studio, just don't expect the more restricted categories to be available easily. (BLT standard might go quick for instance.)

While I would agree with the assessment that 1-bedrooms will always be more available than studios, I wouldn't suggest that you HAVE to purchase that many points just to get into a room.

This thread also helped us in deciding on some of our contracts. Thank you!

BTW, please do include 1 and 2 BRs in your next update (as well as Aulani). It would also be interesting to breakdown 2 BR dedicated and lock-offs. Thanks, again.

Easy for you to say! You don't have to come up with all the free time to do it!

So - I've thought about the 2 BR dedicated vs lock-offs, but truthfully there should be no reason to do lock-offs. Lock-offs are tied directly to studios.

Since you can't book a studio to be specifically a stand-alone or a lock-off, it is quite likely that each resort would "fill" all the stand-alone studios first, and then the studio lock-offs would "fill" second. Studios are 100% gone first at every resort - when the studios are all gone for any given date, that also means the lock-offs are all gone. So just look at the studio charts and they will tell you the lock-off trends.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

i echo the sentiments of others. Thanks for sharing your work with the rest of us! Very much appreciated! I'm considering purchasing vgf resale and another poster directed me to your link. Very informative! We typically travel early to mid December and early February. I was planning on purchasing enough points to cover two trips in a studio but others suggested that I would be better off getting enough points to get a 1br for the December trip. Based on your research I now see why. I don't know if you can answer this or not but I'm trying to determine exactly how quickly the studios fill up in December. Is it a case where they are gone by the end of the first day or is it a matter of minutes after 8am? Thanks

In early December it can be gone within seconds of 8am - if you are 8:01 you'll likely not get a studio.

One other thing about this. 1 bedrooms in the first week of Dec at VGF are also not what I'd consider guaranteed at 11 months - this year I saw some days were already gone prior to the 11 month date just like studios as people have already done what was suggested to you - planned on a 1br then instead of a studio.

 

[skier_pete]

One other thing about this. 1 bedrooms in the first week of Dec at VGF are also not what I'd consider guaranteed at 11 months - this year I saw some days were already gone prior to the 11 month date just like studios as people have already done what was suggested to you - planned on a 1br then instead of a studio.

Well - I agree with this. The newer builds are a real mess with how they are doing them - back when the prices were reasonable, they sold a lot of points in quantities such that people were renting one and two bedrooms. Since they raised the prices so excessively between 2011 and 2014 (From $115 to $165 a point in 4 years.) the sales demographic tends to be that a lot more buyer are buying smaller contracts and wanting studios or maybe 1-bedrooms, but they built VGF with no favor towards this. The Poly they built all studios (because of what was available) so it's not a problem there, but now with Copper Creek the situation will be even worse with the cabins. I predict CC will be virtually impossible to get into studios for most of the high season (Oct-Jan 7th).

So I'll go back to what I said - stay away from buying VGF if you want a studio in early December. Go with a second choice (and not WLV-CC).

 

[Duck1]

Thanks to both of you for your responses! Are my odds slightly better over week 3 of December ? I do have some flexibility in that respect . If not I think I may be better off just buying points for our February trip and just look for discounts for December. I'm open to trying other resorts but the majority of the time I would prefer staying at gf especially just before the holidays. I really enjoy it there!! Thanks again.

 

[mustinjourney]

Thanks to both of you for your responses! Are my odds slightly better over week 3 of December ? I do have some flexibility in that respect . If not I think I may be better off just buying points for our February trip and just look for discounts for December. I'm open to trying other resorts but the majority of the time I would prefer staying at gf especially just before the holidays. I really enjoy it there!! Thanks again.

Third week has better availability, but the point cost goes up significantly too.

If you login right at 8 am, there's a decent shot of getting a studio. @drusba would have a better idea of how fast they go.

It's not quite as bad as club level AKV or standard view BWV.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Thanks to both of you for your responses! Are my odds slightly better over week 3 of December ? I do have some flexibility in that respect . If not I think I may be better off just buying points for our February trip and just look for discounts for December. I'm open to trying other resorts but the majority of the time I would prefer staying at gf especially just before the holidays. I really enjoy it there!! Thanks again.

Yes, the third week is better than the first two. If nothing else I'd think the 1BR should be relatively possible to secure if a studio weren't.

 

[skier_pete]

Thanks to both of you for your responses! Are my odds slightly better over week 3 of December ? I do have some flexibility in that respect . If not I think I may be better off just buying points for our February trip and just look for discounts for December. I'm open to trying other resorts but the majority of the time I would prefer staying at gf especially just before the holidays. I really enjoy it there!! Thanks again.

Agree - as of the 15th of December points costs go up and popularity drops significantly. You would likely have no problems getting a studio at 11 months past that date and even likely a few days before that.

 

[StaciaRae]

What does everyone think the odds are of renting points for CCV for MLK weekend in January 2018? I submitted a request though Davids last week, I know that booking doesn't start until 4/26 and Davids told me that they put me in the queue. We really want CCV so I'm impatiently waiting and hoping to get a reservation. I don't have any other resorts selected because CCV is our first choice.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

For CCV? They will be 7 month points, not home resort. Because the reality is there are not a lot of home resort points sold and almost no one rents out a new resort's points in the first 6 months.

 

[CarolMN]

What does everyone think the odds are of renting points for CCV for MLK weekend in January 2018? I submitted a request though Davids last week, I know that booking doesn't start until 4/26 and Davids told me that they put me in the queue. We really want CCV so I'm impatiently waiting and hoping to get a reservation. I don't have any other resorts selected because CCV is our first choice.

Those who bought CCV points can book a stay right now. 4/26 is the date for booking CCV with non-CCV points.

The largest factor NOT in your favor for a booking between now and mid-June is that very few owners who just bought the new resort will want to rent their points - they generally use them for their own vacations for at least one trip. IMO, it is highly unlikely that the brokers will have owners with CCV points to book anything during the home resort priority period for the foreseeable future.

You may have a shot when the 7 month window opens for your dates and anyone's points will work. The 7 month window for MLK weekend bookings won't open until mid-June.

We have no idea how quickly CCV will book - it depends on how far ahead DVD declares units into the condominium (supply) and member desire to try the new resort (demand). That's unknown at this time. In the past, demand has been quite high for new resorts.

Good luck! Hope it works out for you.

 

[StaciaRae]

Thanks for the reply, CarolMN! We really want CCV, so I haven't put a request in for points for BRV or Poly (which I know both had MLK weekend availability as of yesterday). I'm torn between just waiting patiently and hoping we can get CCV, or just booking somewhere else. This is only our second time renting points so I'm not all that familiar with how it works. The last time I just submitted a request and had a room within 24 hours. I do appreciate the insight of those more familiar with the inner workings of DVC though - so thank you!

 

[Tardisblue]

Easy for you to say! You don't have to come up with all the free time to do it!

A tad presumptuous isn't it? I'm sure you've got nothing better to do than jump on this request from an internet stranger to help them decide which DVC contract they should buy.

Thanks for what you've done. If you don't add any more data to this, you've already done enough.

 

[skier_pete]

Thanks for the reply, CarolMN! We really want CCV, so I haven't put a request in for points for BRV or Poly (which I know both had MLK weekend availability as of yesterday). I'm torn between just waiting patiently and hoping we can get CCV, or just booking somewhere else. This is only our second time renting points so I'm not all that familiar with how it works. The last time I just submitted a request and had a room within 24 hours. I do appreciate the insight of those more familiar with the inner workings of DVC though - so thank you!

This is something that is impossible to predict. As I've said, CCV is going to have probably less than 10 % of the points available as studios - and a good chance that 30-40% of ownership will WANT studios, so I think studios at CCV are going to be a worse problem to get than even VGF. You are very unlikely to see CCV points available to rent as there are only a few owners that exist, and those owners are new owners so they are going to want to stay there. You will therefore likely have to wait until the 7 month mark to rent. I would guess that there may still be availability since that is not a particualrly popular week, but I also think studios will disappear near-instantly at 8:00 AM on the day they become available, so unless your rental company is willing to stalk the site - it may not be possible. Basically, I would suggest you not get your hopes up.

A tad presumptuous isn't it? I'm sure you've got nothing better to do than jump on this request from an internet stranger to help them decide which DVC contract they should buy.

Thanks for what you've done. If you don't add any more data to this, you've already done enough.

Well, I don't think that the PP really intended it that way, but yes - it certainly was implied. The tables I made here probably took me around 100 hours to develop. To do every resort in every category will likely be 200-300 hours or about 4-6 hours every two weeks for an entire year. I only WISH I had that much free time. (Or if someone out there wants to pay me to do it...)

In the end I'm primary doing this for my own use...and I simply will quite likely never be renting 2-bedrooms or Grand Villas, so they are quite low on my priority list. I will likely expand to add more 1-bedrooms if/when I re-do this, but yeah 2-bedrooms probably won't happen. (Though I may see if it's possible to do one 2-bedroom category at each resort - probably the most common one..i.e. Lake View at BLT, Garden/Pool view at BWV. )

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

Well, I don't think that the PP really intended it that way, but yes - it certainly was implied. The tables I made here probably took me around 100 hours to develop. To do every resort in every category will likely be 200-300 hours or about 4-6 hours every two weeks for an entire year. I only WISH I had that much free time. (Or if someone out there wants to pay me to do it...)

Wouldn't it be great of you could publish your process and then crowd-source the data gathering? For instance, you could divide up the work by resort and have 15 people contribute. Having said that, I am pretty busy myself. But I could contribute, say, the work for VGF, since I obsess about it anyway.

I have similar thoughts about pricing. I tracked resale pricing for a while from the OC Controllers web site, but it was just too much work to keep up, so I decided to quit until I have another "addonitis event".

 

[CarolMN]

Wouldn't it be great of you could publish your process and then crowd-source the data gathering? For instance, you could divide up the work by resort and have 15 people contribute. Having said that, I am pretty busy myself. But I could contribute, say, the work for VGF, since I obsess about it anyway.

I have similar thoughts about pricing. I tracked resale pricing for a while from the OC Controllers web site, but it was just too much work to keep up, so I decided to quit until I have another "addonitis event".

I can't help but ask if it would really be worth it? Interesting as it is, it really is a series of snapshots over time. - and it validated the general availability posts drusba does for us.

Between skier_pete's existing work, drusba's work and the RAT, I just don't see how repeating pete's time-consuming process over the next year can give us any more "predictive" or reliable info than we already have. We really can't know if something will be available until we can actually book it. Apart from that, everything else (at best) is an educated guess.

I'm grateful to skier_pete for the work he's done, the time he spent (and continues to spend) gathering data and very happy he decided to share his results with us.

IMO, the 80-100 hours it would take to repeat the process is not worth it, even if the labor is shared. YMMV.

 

[Karencita623]

Thanks for this info! Very helpful. Decided to not buy at GF...too complicated to book at.

 

[skier_pete]

Wouldn't it be great of you could publish your process and then crowd-source the data gathering? For instance, you could divide up the work by resort and have 15 people contribute. Having said that, I am pretty busy myself. But I could contribute, say, the work for VGF, since I obsess about it anyway.

I have similar thoughts about pricing. I tracked resale pricing for a while from the OC Controllers web site, but it was just too much work to keep up, so I decided to quit until I have another "addonitis event".

I suppose that would be something that could be done. The current availability tool actually makes the work easier - however, I am not sure how to go about getting 15 people interested in putting in the effort. It would still probably be about an hour a week (or at least every two weeks) for a year. The process I do isn't very complicated, it's just time consuming.

I can't help but ask if it would really be worth it? Interesting as it is, it really is a series of snapshots over time. - and it validated the general availability posts drusba does for us.

Between skier_pete's existing work, drusba's work and the RAT, I just don't see how repeating pete's time-consuming process over the next year can give us any more "predictive" or reliable info than we already have. We really can't know if something will be available until we can actually book it. Apart from that, everything else (at best) is an educated guess.

I'm grateful to skier_pete for the work he's done, the time he spent (and continues to spend) gathering data and very happy he decided to share his results with us.

IMO, the 80-100 hours it would take to repeat the process is not worth it, even if the labor is shared. YMMV.

Well - I would agree with you I would bet if someone were to re-do the Tables I already have done using the same technique, then the results would be about 90% identical. (Since these tables use broad strokes as opposed to actual day-to-day data.) However, I do believe over years of time patterns will shift, especially as new inventory is added.

For instance - before the Poly opened, there was a maximum number of DVC studios on property of 1523. The Poly added 360 studios to this total, an increase of 24%, which is HUGE, but added zero 1- and 2-bedrooms. I would actually expect this to cause a slight shift in improving the overall availability of studios across the property. However, with point prices increasing, more and more buyers may be looking for studios, which would be an opposing effect. (Less availabilty of studios.)

Before and After SSR for instance had a massive effect on the overall DVC population. While SSR has it's fans - overall, the resort dumped a whole bunch of points into the pool with owners that mostly didn't want to stay at their home resort. The result is this cause a large increase in the # of owners looking to change at 7 months.

Anyways, back to my original point, this particular shifting pattern really is a long term thing - changing over years. So say a year after I did these charts, if I re-did them again they'd be practically Identical. 10 years later however, they could be considerably different.

However, what I am really interested in doing is (a) re-visting SSR with the two room categories, (b) charting the Polynesian (c) adding more 1-bedrooms.

If there are enough people out there interested in doing this for all room categories - I certainly could help co-ordinate. We would certainly want to get at least 8-10 people involved. Some resorts are considerably easier than others - so in some cases people could do more than 1 resort. (The Poly for instance only has 3 room categories, as does Beach Club, and WLV-BR has 4, while AKV alone has by my count around 12 - not counting lock-offs - so doing the Poly, BCV, VWL-BR would actually take less time then just AKV.)

 

[Tardisblue]

I suppose that would be something that could be done. The current availability tool actually makes the work easier - however, I am not sure how to go about getting 15 people interested in putting in the effort. It would still probably be about an hour a week (or at least every two weeks) for a year. The process I do isn't very complicated, it's just time consuming.



Well - I would agree with you I would bet if someone were to re-do the Tables I already have done using the same technique, then the results would be about 90% identical. (Since these tables use broad strokes as opposed to actual day-to-day data.) However, I do believe over years of time patterns will shift, especially as new inventory is added.

For instance - before the Poly opened, there was a maximum number of DVC studios on property of 1523. The Poly added 360 studios to this total, an increase of 24%, which is HUGE, but added zero 1- and 2-bedrooms. I would actually expect this to cause a slight shift in improving the overall availability of studios across the property. However, with point prices increasing, more and more buyers may be looking for studios, which would be an opposing effect. (Less availabilty of studios.)

Before and After SSR for instance had a massive effect on the overall DVC population. While SSR has it's fans - overall, the resort dumped a whole bunch of points into the pool with owners that mostly didn't want to stay at their home resort. The result is this cause a large increase in the # of owners looking to change at 7 months.

Anyways, back to my original point, this particular shifting pattern really is a long term thing - changing over years. So say a year after I did these charts, if I re-did them again they'd be practically Identical. 10 years later however, they could be considerably different.

However, what I am really interested in doing is (a) re-visting SSR with the two room categories, (b) charting the Polynesian (c) adding more 1-bedrooms.

If there are enough people out there interested in doing this for all room categories - I certainly could help co-ordinate. We would certainly want to get at least 8-10 people involved. Some resorts are considerably easier than others - so in some cases people could do more than 1 resort. (The Poly for instance only has 3 room categories, as does Beach Club, and WLV-BR has 4, while AKV alone has by my count around 12 - not counting lock-offs - so doing the Poly, BCV, VWL-BR would actually take less time then just AKV.)

I'd definitely be interested in helping. Count me in.

 

[CookieandOatmeal]

I've looked at the data and wanted to ask if it's really impossible to book a studio at VGF at 7 months. Are there any times where one might have a slight chance for about four days?

 

[skier_pete]

I've looked at the data and wanted to ask if it's really impossible to book a studio at VGF at 7 months. Are there any times where one might have a slight chance for about four days?

Dates that say "mostly" or "open" at 8 months, but "spotty" at 7 months are your best bet. This means that there is probably availability before the 7 month window opens, but because of the limited space and popularity of the resort, it books up very quickly right at 7 months. (Grand Californian is also like this, much of the year it show availabilty at 7 months + a few days, but then right at 7 months to the date it fills up.)