POT (Proof of Time) Race Equivalency Cutoff Confirmed Times

[matt and beth]

Depends on what they have the POT cutoff be. Anyone above 2:30? That would be a LOT of people stuffed into the last corral.

You’d might be surprised how few people can produce a sub 2:30 POT.

 

[LorrieAnn5]

Bree, I wasn't implying anyone that wants a character photo should start at the back, just that there might be a benefit to knowing who wants to stop and who doesn't.
My runDisney experience comes only from the Disneyland races with no waves.
What if there was a wave first of people that want to stop then the next wave is people who won't stop so they keep going filling in the space left by the faster people that stopped.

Like I said, I trained hard, but what if I trained hard and my best was 10:30 or 12:00+ per mile. How much physical space does a runner need and does that amount of required space change based on pace? What can runDisney ask for questions or proof to make runners in C, D, + have a similar running experience as those running in A, B?

 

[nancipants]

You’d might be surprised how few people can produce a sub 2:30 POT.

That was what I meant. If POT is 2:30 and only the last corral is for people who don’t have one, it’s going to be humongous. If you keep the last corral for no POT, you’ll need to raise it.

 

[Zutroy]

I believe that proper seeding is a safety issue. I was in coral A for MW, but ran in C for the 5k with someone. I saw so much weaving from runners trying to race an untimed race, and one even knocked over an older woman (and just kept on running). I’ve also experienced walkers starting from the timing mat of the 10k in coral A. You are dealing with people running 5:30 miles, there is no reason for a person walking the 10k to place themselves in front of those racers.

Expand the corals to M, expand the POT for multiple corals, and place like runners with like runners. I‘m not one to stop for character photos, I like to see if I can place in my age group—but that’s my race. I go with a group of runners who ride Everest, or don’t care about time, or try to get every character photo. It’s a pet peeve of mine when people try to devalue my experience by saying Disney races “are just for fun” and “not for time.” That’s your race, not mine, and both are equally valid.

 

[Tiggerette]

Thank you for the rich discussion. I have thoughts about 10 mile and longer distances:
I've been pondering doing my first marathon as a rD marathon, because I plan to stop for as many characters as possible. I like stopping and recovering, and it's what worked well for me during the Pemberton Ultra Race. That made me think... my time on a rD marathon is going to look like 14-15min pace, because of the stopping. Back when I trained to get a rD Corral B placement, I was at 9:40min pace for 10milers and half-marathons.

rDisney races are 3-4 times as expensive as regular timed road races. I only pay that excessive amount to soak up as much Disney bonus magic as possible, meaning character stops. I feel very strongly about having a very good PoT (whatever my body can do) to get a better corral placement, in order to have more time between me and the balloon ladies. If others want to spend $4x to just speed by all the stuff that makes the high race cost unique, it's their $$ not mine. I just think it's a lot of money to toss in the wind, but different cheese for different mice.

MEANWHILE.... this all adds to the valid discussion about PoT and having that mostly shredded once we start getting into queues for character stops. Having experienced a very meaningful easy (open) course in Corral B for '22 Food/Wine Half, versus crowded course in a much later corral for the '22 Princess Half, I was surprised how much the earlier corral made a difference. I feel strongly about having a solid PoT system, and not buying earlier placement than what your PoT says- although I recognize once the course gets going it's going to become a hot gumbo mix. I would never deliberately start later just because I intend to participate in character spots. That only gets me closer to the sweep, and I did not train nor pay to get swept. (Though, again, I don't judge the folx that do! I heard about the DL HM post-park sweeps.)

Thanks again for all the different points of view. It's really cool to hear how different runners approach these unique races.

 

[SheHulk]

To my mind, being placed in an early PoT corral, and then having a longer finish time because you are stopping for character lines, rides, etc., is different from being placed in an early PoT corral and just planning on moving significantly more slowly right from the beginning. Moving at a speed that is appropriate to the corral placement (or even within a minute or 2 per mile) and then pulling off and stopping, doesn't have an effect on the ability of other people to move ahead at their planned or comfortable speed. Setting off at a much slower speed and moving at that speed on course throughout is going to cause more congestion. These are different things, as far as affecting others' race experience.

 

[RunWI1265]

If runDisney were races for time, I'd agree with most of you. But many people, even those with POTs, treat runDisney as a fun run and don't get anywhere near their POT times during the races.

I don't think this point is fair. rD is for time, for some. I see a lot of this narrative in the rD FB groups as a reason why people shouldn't care about corral placements. Like, "why are you running so hard, it's Disney. You're not going to win so who cares?" I'll use myself as an example. Last year I was trying to PR the marathon. And I'm already looking towards next year to do the same. Why? Because the rD marathon has a great course set up for me to be distracted, have fun, while still running a marathon. Everyone has different reasons they run and why they do rD. Who are we to say whether or not a race is for time or not? @azrivest - I'm not singling you out for this comment so please don't take it that way! I have read this same sentiment a lot and I get where it's coming from. It's not always true though.

To my mind, being placed in an early PoT corral, and then having a longer finish time because you are stopping for character lines, rides, etc., is different from being placed in an early PoT corral and just planning on moving significantly more slowly right from the beginning. Moving at a speed that is appropriate to the corral placement (or even within a minute or 2 per mile) and then pulling off and stopping, doesn't have an effect on the ability of other people to move ahead at their planned or comfortable speed. Setting off at a much slower speed and moving at that speed on course throughout is going to cause more congestion. These are different things, as far as affecting others' race experience.

I agree with this very much! I know I ran pretty close to my POT pace in between stops. The extra time reflected in my finishing time was the actual stopping of movement, not because I ran much slower.

I hate to say this, because I get people want the security of more time to finish, but the worst corral is C. And it's because it has a mixed bag of people intending to run and people who are there to get a head start. And not only do they want the head start some will place themselves in the front of C. It is unsafe. And I'd argue is where post-race dialogue holds the most complaints between runners and walkers.

I always have a hard time expressing my thoughts on this matter because I don't want to come off as insensitive or elitist (I am a very average runner). I want there to be room for everyone, of all paces, but not at the expense of someone else's race experience...just because it's Disney. So I guess selfishly, I don't want my race experience to be negatively impacted because runners slower than myself self-seed themselves into a higher corral. I don't know if expanding the POT to 2:30 is enough but I guess we will see next race season.

 

[Kerry1957]

I think if rD really cared about this issue they would have kept the 2:45 POT and maybe even expanded it into a 3:00 corral. Unfortunately for the runners, that apparently entails more work verifying POTs than rD is willing to invest in.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I've got some stats on this discussion and will try and pull something together tomorrow. I have numbers in memory for some of these things, but I'd rather give accurate information when I've got a moment to put it down.

 

[DopeyBadger]

So, if they move the HM corral cutoff to 2:30, then I believe the cutoff will look something close to this:



Something like a 1:08 10k, a 1:53 10 miler, and a 5:24 marathon. These are unconfirmed values.

As for the discussion around how many runners would hit that criteria. Here are the corral breakdowns for 2018, 2019, and 2020 for WDW Marathon Weekend when they required POT out to a 2:45 HM/5:30 M.



You can see in the lower half of the chart that approximately 8-10% of the field has a sub-2 POT, 8-10% of the field has 2:00-2:15, and the new one would be 8-10% of the field with a 2:15-2:30. That still leaves ~70% of the field in the non-POT corrals. We would still expect to see roughly 30-40% of the field in the first non-POT corral based on how runners respond to the question of estimating finish time and the on-course advantage of choosing the fastest non-POT based on year over year data. Even including 2:45 as the cutoff still leaves about 60-65% of the field as non-POT runners.

There are assumptions with this. That each population of runners that attend each weekend are roughly the same. The above tables would suggest that is a good assumption. The biggest bump came in the first non-POT corral in 2018 to 2019 when many runners figured out the system. I also have tables from 2014-2017, but the spread is a lot bigger because of the old system of corral placement. But suffice to say they're similar. So I think we can use the above to make good generalizations about how many runners would be contained in each pool of POT brackets in a normal runDisney weekend.

 

[GollyGadget]

I don't think this point is fair. rD is for time, for some. I see a lot of this narrative in the rD FB groups as a reason why people shouldn't care about corral placements. Like, "why are you running so hard, it's Disney. You're not going to win so who cares?" I'll use myself as an example. Last year I was trying to PR the marathon. And I'm already looking towards next year to do the same. Why? Because the rD marathon has a great course set up for me to be distracted, have fun, while still running a marathon. Everyone has different reasons they run and why they do rD. Who are we to say whether or not a race is for time or not? @azrivest - I'm not singling you out for this comment so please don't take it that way! I have read this same sentiment a lot and I get where it's coming from. It's not always true though.

I agree with this very much! I know I ran pretty close to my POT pace in between stops. The extra time reflected in my finishing time was the actual stopping of movement, not because I ran much slower.

I hate to say this, because I get people want the security of more time to finish, but the worst corral is C. And it's because it has a mixed bag of people intending to run and people who are there to get a head start. And not only do they want the head start some will place themselves in the front of C. It is unsafe. And I'd argue is where post-race dialogue holds the most complaints between runners and walkers.

I always have a hard time expressing my thoughts on this matter because I don't want to come off as insensitive or elitist (I am a very average runner). I want there to be room for everyone, of all paces, but not at the expense of someone else's race experience...just because it's Disney. So I guess selfishly, I don't want my race experience to be negatively impacted because runners slower than myself self-seed themselves into a higher corral. I don't know if expanding the POT to 2:30 is enough but I guess we will see next race season.

Thank you for expressing this sentiment. I'm always very bothered by the "you're wasting your money" or "you're not going to win" narratives but can never find the right words.

Sometimes I run for fun, sometimes for time, and sometimes for both. There's room for all of us and there's no reason to shame anyone for running their own race.

 

[DisneyParrothead]

I've PR'd both ways at Disney. I PR'd for time in the 10K in 2022, and I PR'd the other way because i decided to wait for a must-stop-for character. You can absolutely go for time or fun, but be willing to change plans based on elements out of your control. I wanted to PR so badly at Princess last year, every little thing that didn't go my way threw me off and I was miserable and moping. I learned my lesson, that being flexible is super important.

 

[SheHulk]

Sooo.... would the marathon PoT be moved out to 5 hours, if the half is moved out to 2:30:00?

 

[GollyGadget]

Sooo.... would the marathon PoT be moved out to 5 hours, if the half is moved out to 2:30:00?

If the half is moved to 2:30, it's a pretty safe assumption the marathon PoT would change to 5 hours. The bigger question in my mind is if the new 2:30 is just for Disneyland or will also apply to WDW. I think there's a 90% chance it's the same on both coasts. It would cause a lot of confusion and frustration if it's not, but who knows.

 

[DopeyBadger]

For the curious, the cutoff for a 5:00hr M/Goofy/Dopey POT would be a ~1:46:00 10 miler and ~2:22:00 HM

 

[camaker]

Sooo.... would the marathon PoT be moved out to 5 hours, if the half is moved out to 2:30:00?

If the half is moved to 2:30, it's a pretty safe assumption the marathon PoT would change to 5 hours. The bigger question in my mind is if the new 2:30 is just for Disneyland or will also apply to WDW. I think there's a 90% chance it's the same on both coasts. It would cause a lot of confusion and frustration if it's not, but who knows.

I'm certainly hoping they make that change. It would be a whole lot easier for me to hit the PoT goal in Mar/Apr if they do!

 

[Zutroy]

I think if rD really cared about this issue they would have kept the 2:45 POT and maybe even expanded it into a 3:00 corral. Unfortunately for the runners, that apparently entails more work verifying POTs than rD is willing to invest in.

I think you are right, and it exemplifies Disney financial logic. They will have Photopass photographers have to manually tag each bib of the hundreds of pictures for each of the 20,000+ runners, but won’t put any staff on verifying POTs. I bet someone with a passing knowledge of Excel could easily create a spreadsheet to seed the corrals, and then 10 staff members could verify the field in a day.

 

[SheHulk]

I think you are right, and it exemplifies Disney financial logic. They will have Photopass photographers have to manually tag each bib of the hundreds of pictures for each of the 20,000+ runners, but won’t put any staff on verifying POTs. I bet someone with a passing knowledge of Excel could easily create a spreadsheet to seed the corrals, and then 10 staff members could verify the field in a day.

I'm going to guess that a significant contributor is all the complaints they got over corral placement when there were more people placed via PoT. "Why am I in E when my friend is in D and our times are almost the same" etc etc. For very little benefit to the experience once you get beyond a certain pace. Just guessing but it's an educated guess from observing internet reaction to corral placement. Better (from the org's perspective) to just let people seed themselves for the most part. I also guess this is why they don't publish corral placement to bib number grids prior to race weekend anymore as well.

 

[Herding_Cats]

I think you are right, and it exemplifies Disney financial logic. They will have Photopass photographers have to manually tag each bib of the hundreds of pictures for each of the 20,000+ runners, but won’t put any staff on verifying POTs. I bet someone with a passing knowledge of Excel could easily create a spreadsheet to seed the corrals, and then 10 staff members could verify the field in a day.

if all 12k runners for the half submitted a POT (as in, there was no cap, and you didn't start verifying them until 10/7, after the POT window/submission window) and you stopped on 12/20, they would only have to do ~250/day only using business days (i.e. taking off thanksgiving weekend.) and we know that plenty of people submit their POT well before that and they could get those done with a few days per month over the summer/early fall. Couple that with the fact that everyone doing Dopey/Goofy is included in that, and you'd only have a few thousand others to verify for "just" the marathon.

 

[accm]

runDisney should somehow link the race results to people's accounts, and use that as a preliminary POT verification. And also "save" previous submitted POT that have been submitted and verified to the runner's account, which again, would minimize the number of times they need to verify that POT.
If they really wanted to, they could really optimize the POT system to not need so many manual verifications.