POT (Proof of Time) Race Equivalency Cutoff Confirmed Times

[SheHulk]

I made it into corral B with a 1:35:05 10-mile! Track shack did respond to my email many months ago and said it converted exactly to a 4:30 marathon and would be accepted, which ended up being true.

Interesting... Thanks that's good information!

Edited to add: Wait, are we back to letter corrals? How many were there?

 

[Baloo in MI]

It was:
A - D for the 5K & 10K
A - F for the Half & Full.

 

[GollyGadget]

Apologies in advance if this was already solved int the MW 2023 thread, I didn't scan through it to find out, but were the cutoff times for corrals still the same as had been (well-) predicted in Billy's chart for last year? Trying to decide whether to really go for it in a 10-miler this year.

The marathon corrals had different cut points than in years past. For example, my POT which would have placed me in B last year actually put me in A this year. I think that anyone with POT was placed in B or better instead of C. I’m guessing that the marathon now follows the hm guide but I don’t know that for sure.

 

[ScooterScott44]

Hi DopeyBadger, thanks for your efforts to create that table! I have a question about the elite corral for the half marathon. Is it true there is an elite corral? Some other people told me it only exists for the full marathon.

But if it is there do you know what is roughly needed to get in there?

Sorry came back to this thread late.

Can verify that they have had an elite group for the Half on MW in the past. The Hanson group usually has a group that comes down and run in the area and the clay roads in the winter. I saw them out there on Friday for a training run. Have seen some of their athletes in the half a few different years. Agree that reaching out to runDisney directly will be the best option, if you have a team rep or coach that can do that for you it might make it easier.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Bases on MW 2023, I believe we're looking at this:



Supporting information:

-<1:53:45 HM or <4:00 M in A.
-1:53:45-2:08:02 HM or 4:00-4:30 M in B.
-Club rD in B
-All who submitted 4:30-5:00 are in C.
-All who submitted 5:00-5:30 are in D.
-All who submitted 5:30-6:00 are in E.
-All who submitted 6:00-6:30 or 6:30-7:00 are in F.

-My POT was 1:48:34 for HM and I am in A.
-My 3:58 full POT put me in ‘A’ for the half/full this year!!
-Corral B for Dopey, submitted a 1:35:05 10 mile when they rounded cutoff is 1:35:00.
- B with 4:25 marathon POT
-A for Half/Full with 1:53 half POT
-C for half/full with a 4:30-5:00 estimated finish
-Dopey I had a 2:06 POT that landed me in B!
-I ended up in corral B for all races. I guess that means my 2:08:02 HM POT.

Can I get the following to confirm their MW 2023 placement?

@Herding_Cats - Corral D with a 5:00-5:30 estimate
@bryana - Corral D with a 5:00-5:30 estimate
@QueenFernando - Corral E with a 5:30-6:00 estimate
@Blue Caterpillar - Corral E with a 5:30-6:00 estimate
@nekonekoneko - Corral F with a 6:00-6:30 estimate
@Sleepless Knight - Corral F with a 6:30-7:00 estimate

@pluto377 - Corral C of HM with 2:16-2:30 estimate
Anyone a solo HM event signed up with a POT over 2 hours?

 

[Herding_Cats]

YES. 5:01-5:30, corral D for the half and full as part of Dopey. Bib 255xx

 

[prncssjas]

Anyone a solo HM event signed up with a POT over 2 hours?

Hi @DopeyBadger !

So I just ran only the half this weekend and I submitted a 10k PoT last year with a 58:06 (which is approximately a 9:21 min/mile pace) and I was placed in Corral B. Do you happen to know if I will also be in Corral B for Princess Half next month? I used the same PoT race to RunDisney. I suppose it will depend on the amount of PoT submissions that RunDisney receives? Is that correct? Thank you again!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Hi @DopeyBadger !

So I just ran only the half this weekend and I submitted a 10k PoT last year with a 58:06 (which is approximately a 9:21 min/mile pace) and I was placed in Corral B. Do you happen to know if I will also be in Corral B for Princess Half next month? I used the same PoT race to RunDisney. I suppose it will depend on the amount of PoT submissions that RunDisney receives? Is that correct? Thank you again!

Hi @prncssjas!

Thanks for the data. That lines up. You submitted a 10k time of 58:06 for a solo HM, and were slotted in Corral B which based on the windows I've got accepts 10k POTs of 54:46 to 1:01.

You have a very strong likelihood of being in Corral B at Princess next month if you submitted the same 10k time.

runDisney no longer adjusts corral size based on the submission pool for that weekend. Years ago they would set caps to the number of runners they wanted in any given corral (say 1500 for example). And so then they would have cutoffs that were harder to predict (like instead of Corral B being 10k times of 54:46 to 1:01, it was something much harder for me to pre-predict because it was based on the field). But they ran into issues with non-POT submissions and lots and lots and lots of people were putting the exact fastest non-POT available. Which in turn, because of the desire of a set number of people per corral caused runDisney to have multiple corrals with the same cutoff value. But when "Susan" and "Joey" both submitted the same time but weren't in the same corral it caused headaches (I'm guessing) to the runDisney emails and such. So in turn they moved to the current system. Have set time cutoffs, and then use mini-waves within the corrals to break up the rate release of runners appropriately. So by in large, it doesn't matter how many people submit POTs between 54:46-1:01 for a 10k for Princess. With a high degree of likelihood based on recent runDisney past behavior, you'll be slotted in B.

I don't have the most recent numbers in front of me at this moment, but only about 9-18% of the field will have a 10k POT (or equivalent) faster than 1:01 based on past race weekends. The pool of runners is strikingly similar from year to year.

 

[bryana]

Can I get the following to confirm their MW 2023 placement?

@bryana - Corral D with a 5:00-5:30 estimate

Yep!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Based on the information to date, I have changed the OP to reflect the POT cutoffs using Version 01.12.23.

 

[prncssjas]

Hi @prncssjas!

Thanks for the data. That lines up. You submitted a 10k time of 58:06 for a solo HM, and were slotted in Corral B which based on the windows I've got accepts 10k POTs of 54:46 to 1:01.

You have a very strong likelihood of being in Corral B at Princess next month if you submitted the same 10k time.

runDisney no longer adjusts corral size based on the submission pool for that weekend. Years ago they would set caps to the number of runners they wanted in any given corral (say 1500 for example). And so then they would have cutoffs that were harder to predict (like instead of Corral B being 10k times of 54:46 to 1:01, it was something much harder for me to pre-predict because it was based on the field). But they ran into issues with non-POT submissions and lots and lots and lots of people were putting the exact fastest non-POT available. Which in turn, because of the desire of a set number of people per corral caused runDisney to have multiple corrals with the same cutoff value. But when "Susan" and "Joey" both submitted the same time but weren't in the same corral it caused headaches (I'm guessing) to the runDisney emails and such. So in turn they moved to the current system. Have set time cutoffs, and then use mini-waves within the corrals to break up the rate release of runners appropriately. So by in large, it doesn't matter how many people submit POTs between 54:46-1:01 for a 10k for Princess. With a high degree of likelihood based on recent runDisney past behavior, you'll be slotted in B.

I don't have the most recent numbers in front of me at this moment, but only about 9-18% of the field will have a 10k POT (or equivalent) faster than 1:01 based on past race weekends. The pool of runners is strikingly similar from year to year.

Thank you SO much @DopeyBadger -- you are just brilliant at this! This is very helpful but bummer! I did have a slight hope of getting into Corral A so I could run with my husband but looks like I will have to bust my buns for a faster PoT before the next set of of Disney races. LOL!! Thanks again.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Thank you SO much @DopeyBadger -- you are just brilliant at this! This is very helpful but bummer! I did have a slight hope of getting into Corral A so I could run with my husband but looks like I will have to bust my buns for a faster PoT before the next set of of Disney races. LOL!! Thanks again.

Depending on how long you've been running for, and how many career miles you've done, there's a reasonable chance you could go from a 58 min 10k to 54 min 10k in a single training cycle. That's about a 7% improvement. If you've already been doing 6 days per week, 8-10 hrs per week, 2 speed sessions + a long run per week, then the chances are lower. But if you haven't been doing a training load like the above, then improving by 7% isn't a ton to expect.

It's important to realize though that from a logistical standpoint, there's a difference between Corral A and B in the HM, but it isn't a ton. Corral A has about 4.5-9% of the field, and Corral B has 4.5-9% of the field. So being at the front of Corral B, and the back of Corral A is probably 1-2 min in starting time and a negligible amount of people different. Just something to chew on. Compare that to Corral B and Corral C, and there's a pretty big difference as Corral C (or the first non-POT corral) usually has about 30-40% of the field.

 

[prncssjas]

Depending on how long you've been running for, and how many career miles you've done, there's a reasonable chance you could go from a 58 min 10k to 54 min 10k in a single training cycle. That's about a 7% improvement. If you've already been doing 6 days per week, 8-10 hrs per week, 2 speed sessions + a long run per week, then the chances are lower. But if you haven't been doing a training load like the above, then improving by 7% isn't a ton to expect.

It's important to realize though that from a logistical standpoint, there's a difference between Corral A and B in the HM, but it isn't a ton. Corral A has about 4.5-9% of the field, and Corral B has 4.5-9% of the field. So being at the front of Corral B, and the back of Corral A is probably 1-2 min in starting time and a negligible amount of people different. Just something to chew on. Compare that to Corral B and Corral C, and there's a pretty big difference as Corral C (or the first non-POT corral) usually has about 30-40% of the field.

Your posts ALWAYS make me feel better @DopeyBadger and I thank you for it! Your point is an excellent one about the corral differences. I started in the front of Corral B and the traffic/congestion was totally low/minimal--so it was less about the congestion and more about I wanted to run/keep up with husband. LOL! I do realize he can drop back to my corral but I would not ask him to. ;-)

And yes, right now, I am in base building phase of my training cycle and I have an excellent running coach. My A goal right now is a sub two hour half (scheduled for either Glass City Half Marathon in Toledo OH in April or at Bayshore Half Marathon in Traverse City, MI in May). My last training cycle just ended with the California International Marathon in December (great race, btw). So the 7% improvement sounds reasonable to me right now but again, your support and positivity on these boards are terrific. Thanks again.

 

[prncssjas]

@DopeyBadger, can I trouble you with one more Princess weekend corral question? You are always so super helpful on these boards so I hope you don't mind another one...lol.

So for princess weekend and regarding the 5k race, given that there is no PoT requirement and folks are seeded into the corrals based on "estimated" minute per mile pace, does that mean all the corral sizes will be roughly the same size? Unfortunately, I know that some people will not be as honest about their pace to start earlier and I am just wondering how this will play out--not everyone can start in corral A. Do you have any data or insight on the cut offs for the 5k race? If I can run my 5k at an 8 minute per mile pace, does that still keep me in corral B? This is my first time running a 5k distance at Disney.

Again, thanks for the help!!

 

[DopeyBadger]

@DopeyBadger, can I trouble you with one more Princess weekend corral question? You are always so super helpful on these boards so I hope you don't mind another one...lol.

So for princess weekend and regarding the 5k race, given that there is no PoT requirement and folks are seeded into the corrals based on "estimated" minute per mile pace, does that mean all the corral sizes will be roughly the same size? Unfortunately, I know that some people will not be as honest about their pace to start earlier and I am just wondering how this will play out--not everyone can start in corral A. Do you have any data or insight on the cut offs for the 5k race? If I can run my 5k at an 8 minute per mile pace, does that still keep me in corral B? This is my first time running a 5k distance at Disney.

Again, thanks for the help!!

The 5k and 10k corrals are harder to pre-predict based on past runDisney behavior. Even from weekend to weekend within a year they change up the methodology and number of corrals they have, and even within a weekend have changed these up. We can say two things definitively.

1) Those who register with an estimated time of "under 8" are very likely in Corral A (or s1).
2) Those who register with an estimated time of "14-16 min/mile" are very likely in the last Corral. Sometimes that's C, sometimes D, sometimes E... Depends on the number of corrals.

Whether submitting 8-10 min/mile is in Corral B (s2), or A, or C is going to be an unknown. Maybe some day runDIsney will choose to put all Platinum club members in B, and then 8-10 in C.

So if the goal is to run an 8 min/mile 5k or faster, then you should always register with an "under 8" estimate.

Running the Disney 5k for time is hard for anyone not towards the front of Corral A. Certainly not impossible, but certainly harder than a normal race. The 5k race path is not conducive for fast running for 12,000-14,000 runners released within a 60 min gun time start timeframe. It's tight in many places from a width of course, and some sharp turns slow everyone down. And 3.11 miles is just not conducive to separating a variety of paces out. So keep that in mind when you're running the Disney 5k.

 

[prncssjas]

This is so very helpful as usual. Thanks so much and I’ll keep this in mind.

 

[DopeyBadger]

This is so very helpful as usual. Thanks so much and I’ll keep this in mind.

Hopefully you'll join us for the pre-race meets and Hurricane Hannahs meet on Saturday at 2:30 at Princess weekend as well!

 

[prncssjas]

Hopefully you'll join us for the pre-race meets and Hurricane Hannahs meet on Saturday at 2:30 at Princess weekend as well!

Yes!!! I just told DH and he said let’s do it! We have a dining ressie at Beaches and Cream at 4pm so it works out perfectly!!!

 

[Zutroy]

Hi DopeyBadger, thanks for your efforts to create that table! I have a question about the elite corral for the half marathon. Is it true there is an elite corral? Some other people told me it only exists for the full marathon.

But if it is there do you know what is roughly needed to get in there?

I’m not sure if there is an official corral, but when Brittany Charboneau ran the 2022 Dopey, they had her off to the side near the stage and brought her to the starting line where she started at the front of corral A.

 

[Tall Todd]

I’m not sure if there is an official corral, but when Brittany Charboneau ran the 2022 Dopey, they had her off to the side near the stage and brought her to the starting line where she started at the front of corral A.

Top 25/Elite runners are the first off the line.