POT (Proof of Time) Race Equivalency Cutoff Confirmed Times

[Pukvg]

Can confirm there was an elite bib during the half marathon at marathon weekend 2023. They were entered at the side in corral A and blended with some people who were camping the front start line and filming every second with their phone.

Unfortunately I didn't get an elite bib myself, but that was mainly due my POT that wasn't that strong (37:32 10k). All tough i managed to get to the second start row of corral A. So I could immediately start with the lead group. Hopefully 11th overall place will be enough for elite bib next year.

 

[flav]

There were Elite bib for the Springtime Surprise but no special corral or placement within the A.

 

[prncssjas]

Hi @DopeyBadger , hope you are having a nice summer! So, I literally have this chart taped to my desk as I work on my Corral A goals

I wanted to confirm with you that this is the most up to date "estimated" cut off times....I just signed up for Princess Half. I have 2 10ks, 1 ten miler and a half marathon scheduled for this summer/early fall. If I am shooting for Corral A at Princess Half 2024, I need run any of the following at my races:

10k= 54 mins, 15 seconds or faster
10 miler= 1:31:15 or faster
Half Marathon= 2:00 on the nose or faster

Is this right? I think it is but wondering I should include a buffer? Thanks again!!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Hi @DopeyBadger , hope you are having a nice summer! So, I literally have this chart taped to my desk as I work on my Corral A goals

I wanted to confirm with you that this is the most up to date "estimated" cut off times....I just signed up for Princess Half. I have 2 10ks, 1 ten miler and a half marathon scheduled for this summer/early fall. If I am shooting for Corral A at Princess Half 2024, I need run any of the following at my races:

10k= 54 mins, 15 seconds or faster
10 miler= 1:31:15 or faster
Half Marathon= 2:00 on the nose or faster

Is this right? I think it is but wondering I should include a buffer? Thanks again!!

View attachment 769763

Yes, that is the most up to date projections (dated 01.12.23). It's always possible they shift the HM Corral A standards to something tougher than a sub-2 equivalent. In 2018, it was a sub-1:50 to get into Corral A.



Even sub-1:46 was used as a cutoff when there were even more corrals (for example Wine and Dine 2016)



According to my notes, MW 2022 was the first recent instance where sub-2 was used as the cutoff for Corral A for HM Solo Events (or Challenges without a M). So it's always possible they go back to sub-1:50. Now based on percentage of runner population and mini-waves, and such, I think sticking with sub-2 is likely here to stay. It's a nice balance for POT and having two corrals.

So with that "things can change speech" out of the way, if you want to run the 2024 Princess HM from Corral A based on the current info, then you need to run a 10k in sub 54:45, 10 miler in sub 1:31:15, M in sub 4:21:45, or HM in sub 2:00:00. We have seen some wiggle room around these values. For instance, someone ran a 2:08:02 HM and submitted it for M/Goofy/Dopey and was given Corral B despite the cutoff being "2:08". I don't think the cutoff is 2:08:59, but rather the person just barely got in. But my values are not absolutes, just very good estimates.

When it comes to the race equivalency calculations, running a 10 miler or M for POT submitting to a Disney HM solo event (or challenge without a M) is an easier mark to hit than the 10k. The 10k represents a value closer to actual race equivalency (i.e. if someone is capable of a 2:00 HM, then they're also likely capable of a 54:10 10k). Comparatively, if someone were capable of a 2:00 HM, they'd also be capable of a 1:29:45 10 miler or 4:12 marathon (although not as realistic based on real world data). So the 10k has an added bonus of about 5 sec/mile, 10 miler a bonus of 9 sec/mile, and M a bonus of 22 sec/mile (although a realistic M projection for a 2:00 HM runner is more like 4:17-4:26). So the most likely event that you'll hit the Corral A standard at is going to be your 10 miler. It's an easier time to hit than is the 2:00 HM time. The HM time of 2:00 actually represents the hardest standard to hit of the four submittable times.

Hope that helps!

 

[GollyGadget]

When it comes to the race equivalency calculations, running a 10 miler or M for POT submitting to a Disney HM solo event (or challenge without a M) is an easier mark to hit than the 10k.

Thank you for explaining this! I’ve heard that the 10 miler is easier for POT than the HM but I just assumed it was because it was a shorter distance and that’s all that made it easier. I didn’t realize there was actual math involved!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Thank you for explaining this! I’ve heard that the 10 miler is easier for POT than the HM but I just assumed it was because it was a shorter distance and that’s all that made it easier. I didn’t realize there was actual math involved!

Both are true. The 10 miler is an easier standard to hit because it's a shorter distance and thus it's easier to be "well trained" on less than it is for the HM distance.

However, if they kept the Corral A standard as a sub-2 HM, but changed the 10 miler equivalency cutoff to 1:29:00 instead of 1:31:15, then it would shift the 10 miler to being a harder standard to hit mathematically. A "well trained" person would be more likely to run the sub-2 HM than the 1:29:00 10 miler assuming the race/course conditions are the same.

In my opinion (and based on some math), the standards would go M, 10 miler, 10k, HM (from easiest to hardest) based on the conversion value runDisney appears to be using for HM POT submissions. The same "mathematical advantage" difference does not exist in the case of the M/Goofy/Dopey POT submittable times. They all use what appears to be the same R value (around 1.079) and thus from the race equivalency standpoint are roughly equal. Thus, the ranked order of "easiness" would then default back to race distance (10 miler, then HM, then M) in the case of M/Goofy/Dopey POT submissions.

When I submitted my POT for the Disneyland Dumbo Challenge (HM without a M challenge), I submitted my 2021 M time of 3:15:13. From a race equivalency standpoint, my 2023 1:32:25 HM is a better time, but the 3:15:13 is a faster conversion using runDisney's calculation. My 3:15:13 converts to a 1:32:44 using a standard calculation, and a 1:30:19 using runDisney's calculation. For me, these differences are only about vanity of bib number. But for other people, it shows where some advantages could be found in POT submission or hitting a certain goal standard.

 

[prncssjas]

So the most likely event that you'll hit the Corral A standard at is going to be your 10 miler. It's an easier time to hit than is the 2:00 HM time. The HM time of 2:00 actually represents the hardest standard to hit of the four submittable times.

Hope that helps!

This is just magic to me! Amazing analysis @DopeyBadger once again. Earlier today, I told DH about the PoT cutoffs and he said, “sounds like the 10 miler is your best bet…” and I thought it was odd. Now I read this and I’m tickled pink! Wait until I tell him!

This is super helpful and I have a plan. My 10 miler is not until end of august and the race will have its own training cycle so I can hopefully smash it!

Again, thanks so much! I love these boards!

 

[striker1064]

When it comes to the race equivalency calculations, running a 10 miler or M for POT submitting to a Disney HM solo event (or challenge without a M) is an easier mark to hit than the 10k.

Thank you for explaining this! I’ve heard that the 10 miler is easier for POT than the HM but I just assumed it was because it was a shorter distance and that’s all that made it easier. I didn’t realize there was actual math involved!

I thought you were going to say "Yeah, it's easier to run a marathon." Sure it is!

I totally get the math involved, there's just something really funny to me about the idea of "If you can't hit the 10k time, have you considered running 26.2 miles?"

 

[Herding_Cats]

My 10 miler is not until end of august and the race will have its own training cycle so I can hopefully smash it!

I'm assuming you're running the CRIM? There are a few other 10mi races including one in GR, and a few in what I think is the Detroit/AA area in the fall. Not that I looked into those one year and then realized I was still too slow or anything. HAHAH!

 

[prncssjas]

I'm assuming you're running the CRIM?

Yes! I just hope it isn't hot as hades that morning....

 

[prncssjas]

I totally get the math involved, there's just something really funny to me about the idea of "If you can't hit the 10k time, have you considered running 26.2 miles?"

You know, I read that too and I was like...in what universe would I think ok maybe....and then actually tossed the idea around for about 5 seconds.

 

[prncssjas]

Not that I looked into those one year and then realized I was still too slow or anything. HAHAH!

You can totally do it! I have faith in the training process, no matter how long it takes. If you want to do it, you will and we will support you!!

 

[WxKristin]

I just want to thank @DopeyBadger and everyone else for the discussion and updates in this thread.

I was hoping to set a PR in the 10K OKC Love Run this morning for submission to W&D, but with 75 deg F dewpoints I had to slow down around mile 4 to an 11 min mile. Finished at 1:05:50, which was actually pretty great for me in the ridiculous humidity, but according to the equivalence charts not good enough to submit.

This squarely puts me in the 2:15-2:30 HM corrals which I put as my estimated finish time at signup. It is also MUCH better than my 2022 W&D (due to a half hour wait for Mickey Mouse)… is this worth submitting as verification for the estimated time anyway or no?

 

[DopeyBadger]

I just want to thank @DopeyBadger and everyone else for the discussion and updates in this thread.

I was hoping to set a PR in the 10K OKC Love Run this morning for submission to W&D, but with 75 deg F dewpoints I had to slow down around mile 4 to an 11 min mile. Finished at 1:05:50, which was actually pretty great for me in the ridiculous humidity, but according to the equivalence charts not good enough to submit.

This squarely puts me in the 2:15-2:30 HM corrals which I put as my estimated finish time at signup. It is also MUCH better than my 2022 W&D (due to a half hour wait for Mickey Mouse)… is this worth submitting as verification for the estimated time anyway or no?

Always the worst when mother nature doesn't play nice on race day.

I'd say there's a virtually 0% chance that your submitted 10k time of 1:05:50 will place you in a POT corral at Wine and Dine with the current cutoff set at 2:15 equivalent.

I am aware of a few cases when people whose POT was not really all that close to the POT cutoff submitted POTs. Most are slotted in the first non-POT corral. But I have seen a very few times that those people were placed in the last corral. I don't have direct evidence to say that it was because their POT was fairly far off from the cutoff.

So my advice, since there's a virtually 0% chance that a 1:05:50 would be accepted for POT for the 2:15 cutoff, then you're safest choice is just to keep the first non-POT selection of "2:15-2:30" and not submit the 1:05 POT.

As a side note, whenever this conversation comes up sometimes people ask the same question with a much closer time to the cutoff. For instance when the cutoff was projected at 2:08:00, and a person submitted a 2:08:02. In that case, the person's time was accepted, and honestly it was close enough that since they don't publish the actual cutoffs it's not unreasonable to believe that a 2:08:02 could justify a 4:30 M.

 

[GirlfromTN]

I have a HM PoT of 1:57 that I submitted for the 2024 Dopey challenge. Should I expect to be in corral A or B, based on what we’ve seen in prior years?

 

[DopeyBadger]

I have a HM PoT of 1:57 that I submitted for the 2024 Dopey challenge. Should I expect to be in corral A or B, based on what we’ve seen in prior years?

Based on what runDisney has done recently, that would be a solid Corral B assignment.



See the top table (WDW M, Goofy, Dopey). Go to "HM" and see that your 1:57 falls between 1:53:45-2:08:02. That correlates with the Corral B assignment. Based on prior year's data, about 20-25% of M runners and 15-20% of HM runners will be assigned to Corral A or B (about 9-10% in Corral A). The difference between Corral A and B start time will be about 4-6 min.

 

[Dimickey]

I ran a marathon in 4:23 so if 2024 follows the recent corrals, I would be in corral B?

My running mate ran the same marathon in 4:52:04 but halfway he was at 2:11:27. Can he give proof of time of that halfway or will they look to the final result (the full marathon) to be sure he's in corral B?

 

[DopeyBadger]

I ran a marathon in 4:23 so if 2024 follows the recent corrals, I would be in corral B?

If you plan on running the 2024 Disney World Marathon, Goofy or Dopey, then a 4:23 marathon POT would put you in Corral B.

If you plan on running any of the half marathons not associated with a marathon (such as Princess Half, Wine and Dine Half, Disneyland Half, or Disney World Half as a standalone race), then a 4:23 marathon POT would also put you in Corral B, but just barely as the estimated cutoff is a 4:21:45 for Corral A.

My running mate ran the same marathon in 4:52:04 but halfway he was at 2:11:27. Can he give proof of time of that halfway or will they look to the final result (the full marathon) to be sure he's in corral B?

If your mate is running a half marathon not associated with a marathon (such as Princess Half, Wine and Dine Half, Disneyland Half, or Disney World Half as a standalone race), then a 4:52:04 marathon POT would possibly be a Corral B assignment or non-POT corral assignment as it just barely misses the estimated cutoff of 4:52:00.

My recollection from someone else's prior communication with runDisney is that they won't accept a mid-way split of a race despite it being an official result. They will only consider the final official result of the full distance being raced. You could email runDisney directly to confirm that they won't accept a mid-split result.

If your mate was capable of a 2:11:27 HM, then I would suggest trying to hit that mark in a separate HM race before the POT submission deadline. Repeating the 2:11:27 HM as a standalone race would get them into Corral B for Disney half marathon races. However, if your mate is doing the marathon, Goofy, or Dopey, then they will need a HM POT of 2:08:02 or less to have a POT submittable time.

As always, all of this information is based on past precedent, and runDisney tends to change these things every once in a while. So no guarantees.

 

[GollyGadget]

I ran a marathon in 4:23 so if 2024 follows the recent corrals, I would be in corral B?

My running mate ran the same marathon in 4:52:04 but halfway he was at 2:11:27. Can he give proof of time of that halfway or will they look to the final result (the full marathon) to be sure he's in corral B?

What race are you running? The corrals vary slightly between HM and full marathon. A 4:23 should put you in B regardless.

The proof of time must be the entire race distance and again this will vary based on the race. Either 10mi, HM or marathon for the marathon. The HM races additionally accept a 10K result.

My suggestion would be for your friend to run a shorter race for POT before the cutoff date. That date will be different for each race. But keep in mind that the times are slightly different. 2:11 is too slow for a marathon POT but would be accepted for the half.

 

[fatmanatee]

What race are you running? The corrals vary slightly between HM and full marathon. A 4:23 should put you in B regardless.

The proof of time must be the entire race distance and again this will vary based on the race. Either 10mi, HM or marathon for the marathon. The HM races additionally accept a 10K result.

My suggestion would be for your friend to run a shorter race for POT before the cutoff date. That date will be different for each race. But keep in mind that the times are slightly different. 2:11 is too slow for a marathon POT but would be accepted for the half.

My read on this is that both of them are running the marathon, and if that's the case, I don't think RD would look at the first half and ignore the complete result.