Possible proof of Commercial renting of confirmed reservations

[TheDailyMoo]

Ok this is pure speculation but I'm pretty sure I saw solid proof today that a commercial entity was releasing a lot of confirmed reservations of desirable rooms during a very desirable time. For context:

I have a reservation during a vacation break (regional not nationwide). I have been stalking these dates for modifications for...and this is zero hyperbole...30-50 times a day, 7 days a week, for at least 3 months. It's obsessive but without fail I have recognized the small trickle of rooms that open up here and there every few days. Many days I have checked and no movement. It is a popular time so there is barely anything available anyway...until today. Around 1:30 this afternoon I noticed a dump beginning. And as I refreshed over the next hour or two I noticed more and more availability opening up. And I don't think this was Disney releasing rooms because it was sporadic and across many resorts. Also if it was Disney releasing these rooms there would be full weeks I would assume...only one full week opened up at the GF in a Lake View but that only lasted about 20 minutes. The Boardwalk and Boulder Ridge were the only two that I haven't seen any openings yet. I even saw an AKV open up in the vicinity of the week I was looking at. Point being there were way over 1000 points of rooms that opened just in the week I was watching alone. Then when opening the calendar I noticed adjacent weeks had many openings as well. This may or may not have been a commercial renter releasing many small to medium confirmed reservations but in my mind there is no doubt. Today proved to me without a shadow of a doubt how much one commercial entity can take up so many desired rooms and dates.

 

[Doingitagain]

I was stalking a time period and noticed a lot more opening up as it got closer to the 75 day mark. I thought part of it might be new Poly owners who closed and could book at the new island tower, and canceled their other reservations that had been booked with non-Poly points.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I was stalking a time period and noticed a lot more opening up as it got closer to the 75 day mark. I thought part of it might be new Poly owners who closed and could book at the new island tower, and canceled their other reservations that had been booked with non-Poly points.

On the day Poly bookings opened I noticed a lot of movement but nothing close to this. That was the only other day where there was a noticeable opening of some dates...but mostly Poly. There have been a few days in the last few months where I've seen a nice room open up and I was able to modify but today was extraordinary in the amount of rooms and dates that were released. Again it was 2 nights here 3 nights there, 4 nights, some 5 night blocks. I always expand the calendars and the three Boardwalk rooms were the only ones I still saw nothing for...presumably because they've all been rented or easy to rent. Not a ton of Beach Club or CCV but there was still some of those two as well...again because of how easy they rent I'm sure

 

[Cfabar1]

Until Disney wishes to change the rules, this is likely only going to increase..

My view it is only a matter of time until they do - as to a certain extent commercial renters are cannibalizing Disney's own rentals of these resorts...

 

[Sandisw]

The only piece I can add is that I don’t think we can assume DVC only takes 7 days of rooms at a time.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I’ll add another interesting piece of data. I got a text from the board sponsor advertising that they were slashing rates on rentals (trying to entice me as a former renter client). I’m no longer a potential renter, but I happen to be in the market to rent out some banked points I got on a loaded contract and when I logged onto their site to see which properties they are looking for owners to book, I saw they had slashed reimbursement rates and were paying $2 less per point for most resorts than they were last week.
(Didn’t mean to imply that it was DVCRS that was dumping reservations that OP noted, only point out that the rental market appears to be cooling down quickly)— I’m curious if it’s people approaching a holding period.

@TheDailyMoo — would you mind telling us what dates you are stalking or at least general time of month?

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I’ll add another interesting piece of data. I got a text from the board sponsor advertising that they were slashing rates on rentals (trying to entice me as a former renter client). I’m no longer a potential renter, but I happen to be in the market to rent out some banked points I got on a loaded contract and when I logged onto their site to see which properties they are looking for owners to book, I saw they had slashed reimbursement rates and were paying $2 less per point for most resorts than they were last week.
(Didn’t mean to imply that it was DVCRS that was dumping reservations that OP noted, only point out that the rental market appears to be cooling down quickly)— I’m curious if it’s people approaching a holding period.

@TheDailyMoo — would you mind telling us what dates you are stalking or at least general time of month?

curiouser and curiouser!

I'm still looking to modify so without any exact dates it's February but you can probably figure it out pretty easily!
Boardwalk...nothing available with expanded calendar. Same for Boulder Ridge. CCV and Beach Club some availability. All easy to rent. All the big ticket resorts and rooms and the non park ones as well. Whoever released them had a glut of confirmed reservations. I'm assuming they either were bailing on them seeing as no one was renting or wanted to reallocate the points to food and wine next year.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

curiouser and curiouser!

I'm still looking to modify so without any exact dates it's February but you can probably figure it out pretty easily!
Boardwalk...nothing available with expanded calendar. Same for Boulder Ridge. CCV and Beach Club some availability. All easy to rent. All the big ticket resorts and rooms and the non park ones as well. Whoever released them had a glut of confirmed reservations. I'm assuming they either were bailing on them seeing as no one was renting or wanted to reallocate the points to food and wine next year.

Too lazy to try and figure it out, but Feb would be too soon for people worrying about risking holding. Maybe they have a banking deadline coming up though…no, wrong time of month for that.

ETA: I was thrilled to have a BCV waitlist clear in the last week for the weekend of DHS moonlight madness, I figured that was a REALLY long shot.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Too lazy to try and figure it out, but Feb would be too soon for people worrying about risking holding. Maybe they have a banking deadline coming up though…no, wrong time of month for that.

ETA: I was thrilled to have a BCV waitlist clear in the last week for the weekend of DHS moonlight madness, I figured that was a REALLY long shot.

I can see them reallocating for 11 month food and wine bookings. Glad the waitlist came through!

 

[Chuck S]

While typical "commercial renting" could be having an impact as prices seem to be dropping slightly on rentals, I also wonder if this has anything to do with the normal end of year sell off for members looking to actually sell their contracts. Many COULD have booked some spec rentals, and when they didn't rent immediately, decided to sell rather than rent for paying their upcoming maintenance fees. And look at the increase in YouTube blogs that are very anti-Disney, nitpiking every thing from ride closures for maintenance and reimagineering, ticket price increases, politics, safety, and so forth. And the impact of the Epic Adventure opening in May people just may be waiting until it opens.

 

[Disdreaming479]

I think that if members booking the elusive bwv standard view studios and value rooms at jambo at 11 months start reporting that it’s getting easier, this would be evidence of who is using the scripts.

 

[VGCgroupie]

This happened at Aulani last August. It was much closer to the check in day than what you noticed though. I was very new to DVC and the DVC boards at that time and didnt think about this possibility, but it was all booked then suddenly a bunch of availability.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Poly Tower listings at $28 per point! Holy cow!

 

[McCrae]

It could easily be unsold Disney inventory and reservations.

 

[Genie+]

It could easily be unsold Disney inventory and reservations.

On points DVD owns or breakage?

 

[Mle8308]

Poly Tower listings at $28 per point! Holy cow!

That's what the board sponsor charges at the 11 month mark, and not for just Poly!

 

[TheDailyMoo]

While typical "commercial renting" could be having an impact as prices seem to be dropping slightly on rentals, I also wonder if this has anything to do with the normal end of year sell off for members looking to actually sell their contracts. Many COULD have booked some spec rentals, and when they didn't rent immediately, decided to sell rather than rent for paying their upcoming maintenance fees. And look at the increase in YouTube blogs that are very anti-Disney, nitpiking every thing from ride closures for maintenance and reimagineering, ticket price increases, politics, safety, and so forth. And the impact of the Epic Adventure opening in May people just may be waiting until it opens.

I wouldn't doubt this happens but this was an anomaly of a day. No way every member that was thinking of doing that did it all on the same day by coincidence or otherwise. No this was thousands of points spread out randomly. And if it was Disney then why not Boardwalk (which did just appear before but as a singleton day). Boardwalk is probably the bread and butter of commercial spec renters. Now I was looking again today...all day...like I've done for months (don't judge my insanity or how much I ignore my actual job to do this!) and there was quite a bit of movement again but nothing like yesterday. Of course I can't say as fact it was what I assume it to be...but to me I very much believe I was seeing the spec rental dump from a major player. It is what it is we know it happens for better or worse but to actually see it in action was fascinating.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I wouldn't doubt this happens but this was an anomaly of a day. No way every member that was thinking of doing that did it all on the same day by coincidence or otherwise. No this was thousands of points spread out randomly. And if it was Disney then why not Boardwalk (which did just appear before but as a singleton day). Boardwalk is probably the bread and butter of commercial spec renters. Now I was looking again today...all day...like I've done for months (don't judge my insanity or how much I ignore my actual job to do this!) and there was quite a bit of movement again but nothing like yesterday. Of course I can't say as fact it was what I assume it to be...but to me I very much believe I was seeing the spec rental dump from a major player. It is what it is we know it happens for better or worse but to actually see it in action was fascinating.

In theory the dump would be even greater and you’re ONLY seeing what came to market after all the waitlists filled, right?

 

[RichVIII]

I actually went looking for a confirmed reservation since we drastically had to move up our trip and nothing was available. What shocks me is are the ones still listed less than 30 days. Lots of little bits and scraps. Do those rent? What happens if they don’t? Go into holding and book something else?

 

[Sandisw]

I actually went looking for a confirmed reservation since we drastically had to move up our trip and nothing was available. What shocks me is are the ones still listed less than 30 days. Lots of little bits and scraps. Do those rent? What happens if they don’t? Go into holding and book something else?

My guess is that they do cancel and then have to try for something else.

I am actually surprised to see so many last minute ones sometimes.