Poly1 v (?) Poly 2

[PolynesianPip]

That wording of “another option” could also mean another DVC resort….it’s why everything can be explained depending on how you want to see it.

If they wanted it to be clear it’s part of the current Poly, they would have said so, just like VGF…which is the most recent project announced,

Since they did not, and much of the language just refers to the Poly Village Resort…which is the cash side…it means it’s either new, or they have not yet decided which way to go..but lack of the wording on the DVC website referring it to Poly villas means they don’t want it interpreted in anyway that it will definitely be part of Poly 1.

The language for construction is there for Grand Floridain too which is undergoing construction no longer related to DVC.

I posted this earlier but wondered everyone else's thoughts on it:

I still feel like the new tower will rely on Poly 1 studios in order to pitch a full array of available types of accommodations— this makes me think it will be an expansion of offerings rather than a new association.

I know Poly has existed as essentially a studios only DVC resort but I would think this decision would fix that problem rather than create the same problem in another Poly association.

 

[Sandisw]

I posted this earlier but wondered everyone else's thoughts on it:

I still feel like the new tower will rely on Poly 1 studios in order to pitch a full array of available types of accommodations— this makes me think it will be an expansion of offerings rather than a new association.

I know Poly has existed as essentially a studios only DVC resort but I would think this decision would fix that problem rather than create the same problem in another Poly association.

I don’t think it will need them as long as there are studios part of the Poly tower.

They don’t need 300+ studios to sell Poly tower unless it only has 1 and 2 bedrooms which doesn’t seem likely. I think we will see lock off 2 bedrooms which puts plenty of studios.

And Poly 1 studios are typically avail at 7 months so they will just promote that. As mentioned, this is the long game for them and if they don’t put restrictions on a project of this magnitude then it means they don’t want them anymore.

 

[Nursemanit]

The tower will be further away from TTC and although it will be new and shiney it will probably not have 400+ Sq foot studios. I also think we will have 2 separate DVC offerings like CC and BR.

I think the one without restrictions will sell just as well to people who are DVC savy and the new tower will sell better to new customers.

 

[Paul Stupin]

The tower will be further away from TTC and although it will be new and shiney it will probably not have 400+ Sq foot studios. I also think we will have 2 separate DVC offerings like CC and BR.

I think the one without restrictions will sell just as well to people who are DVC savy and the new tower will sell better to new customers.

Maybe Poly1 could continue selling ok to DVC savvy buyers, but that’s a very small percentage of the entire buyer pool, so I think the tower will probably be considerably more popular. Hard for me to believe that Poly1 resale prices won’t take a hit.

 

[Nursemanit]

Maybe Poly1 could continue selling ok to DVC savvy buyers, but that’s a very small percentage of the entire buyer pool, so I think the tower will probably be considerably more popular. Hard for me to believe that Poly1 resale prices won’t take a hit.

I think poly1 will go up significantly - if they put restrictions on the tower. Same resort , same pools , larger studios and no restrictions.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I think poly1 will go up significantly - if they put restrictions on the tower. Same resort , same pools , larger studios and no restrictions.

Possible! But law of supply and demand says fewer buyers equals lower prices. I also think DVC, like they did with VGF2, will price Poly2 quite competitively, or even close to equivalent to Poly1 resale. Restrictions also mean the points will be usable at VDH, Riviera, and no doubt some Epcot resort DVC expansion Disney will have announced by then, which will be meaningful. And personally I don’t think restrictions mean much to new buyers, since they won’t be affected and very few buyers think about selling years down the line when they’re buying.
Again, just my thoughts. I also think the new resort will be beautiful, which will probably be the strongest selling point. At least it will be for me!

 

[havoc315]

I think poly1 will go up significantly - if they put restrictions on the tower. Same resort , same pools , larger studios and no restrictions.

That's not true --- You're missing the point of the restrictions. A resale buyer of Poly 1 would be quite restricted -- Unable to use their points at Poly 2, unable to use their points at Riviera, unable to use their points at the new Disneyland tower.

Yes, same resort and same volcano pool. Not so sure they would be able to use the new infinity pool at the Poly tower. But most critically, not able to book the 1 and 2 BRs at Poly 2.

Great marketing for Disney direct -- "If you want access to ALL of Poly DVC, you have to buy direct."

Could actually see it hurting the resale prices of Poly 1 to some degree, as such buyers would very clearly only be getting half the resort.

 

[lovethesun12]

That's not true --- You're missing the point of the restrictions. A resale buyer of Poly 1 would be quite restricted -- Unable to use their points at Poly 2, unable to use their points at Riviera, unable to use their points at the new Disneyland tower.

Yes, same resort and same volcano pool. Not so sure they would be able to use the new infinity pool at the Poly tower. But most critically, not able to book the 1 and 2 BRs at Poly 2.

Great marketing for Disney direct -- "If you want access to ALL of Poly DVC, you have to buy direct."

Could actually see it hurting the resale prices of Poly 1 to some degree, as such buyers would very clearly only be getting half the resort.

I don't really see that as *that* restricted. If you are going to WDW for the next 10 years, there is maybe 1 resort you can't stay at, and since the theme isn't even in the ballpark of poly I can't see someone who prefers that resort buying at poly hoping for a stay at RIV. They would just buy RIV wouldn't they?

If you look at the resale restrictions (which many seem to do judging by the threads for RIV here) you can still access almost all resorts if you decide to buy or sell poly1 resale. Poly1 resale will also be substantially cheaper than poly2 direct.

A poly2 resale buyer is getting an inferior product to a poly1 resale buyer, unless they plan to stay only at poly 1/2 bedrooms in the new tower. I have no idea whether or not that will actually impact the resale value of poly1 vs poly2 though.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I don't really see that as *that* restricted. If you are going to WDW for the next 10 years, there is maybe 1 resort you can't stay at, and since the theme isn't even in the ballpark of poly I can't see someone who prefers that resort buying at poly hoping for a stay at RIV. They would just buy RIV wouldn't they?

If you look at the resale restrictions (which many seem to do judging by the threads for RIV here) you can still access almost all resorts if you decide to buy or sell poly1 resale. Poly1 resale will also be substantially cheaper than poly2 direct.

A poly2 resale buyer is getting an inferior product to a poly1 resale buyer, unless they plan to stay only at poly 1/2 bedrooms in the new tower. I have no idea whether or not that will actually impact the resale value of poly1 vs poly2 though.

I don’t think Poly1 resale will be substantially cheaper than Poly2 direct at all. VGF2 was priced lower than many VGF resale contracts in early March, and with incentives the VGF2 direct points I bought in March were cheaper than almost every single one of my resale VGF contracts. DVC will use the same strategy selling Poly2. That’s just going to drive the Poly1 resale price lower, as its doing with VGF.

In less than 20 years, all those resale points will be worthless not only at Epcot resorts, but also Riviera, VDH, Poly2 and other resorts yet to be announced. And when Poly2 goes on sale, I don’t think buyers will care about restrictions imposed on resale buyers years later if or when they sell.

 

[lovethesun12]

I don’t think Poly1 resale will be substantially cheaper than Poly2 direct at all. VGF2 was priced lower than many VGF resale contracts in early March, and with incentives the VGF2 direct points I bought in March were cheaper than almost every single one of my resale VGF contracts. DVC will use the same strategy selling Poly2. That’s just going to drive the Poly1 resale price lower, as its doing with VGF.

In less than 20 years, all those resale points will be worthless not only at Epcot resorts, but also Riviera, VDH, Poly2 and other resorts yet to be announced. And when Poly2 goes on sale, I don’t think buyers will care about restrictions imposed on resale buyers years later if or when they sell.

If it drives poly1 resale even lower, it should be substantially cheaper.

You could look at that another way. While selling, the only resorts poly2 will have over poly1 at WDW is RIV (no guarantee they can use this though) and, well, poly.

I guess there is a possibility VDH could be a benefit, *if* you also go to California and *if* you actually are able to transfer in at 7 months. I guess some people might buy on the hope of new resorts in a couple decades, which they may or may not be able to transfer into.

Anyway, I do see why people buy direct. I would like to own direct myself. However, I wouldn't bother purchasing poly 2 if they aren't the same association. Everyone has different circumstances. I would either just add more resale points, or if I went the route of selling contracts to buy direct (don't see that happening) I think VGF would be the resort I would go through that for (prior to the sale of poly2 when the plan is announced) since it doesn't have the resale restrictions.

 

[Sandisw]

If it drives poly1 resale even lower, it should be substantially cheaper.

You could look at that another way. While selling, the only resorts poly2 will have over poly1 at WDW is RIV (no guarantee they can use this though) and, well, poly.

I guess there is a possibility VDH could be a benefit, *if* you also go to California and *if* you actually are able to transfer in at 7 months. I guess some people might buy on the hope of new resorts in a couple decades, which they may or may not be able to transfer into.

I know people mention that future resorts are not guaranteed, but as long as DVD makes them part of DVC, then direct points will be eligible there. Nothing they have done has every limited where direct points can be used. So, if they continue with restrictions, its a safe bet that your direct points will be good at all those future resorts.

Buying resale means they will not. But, the point is that resale does carry restrictions and it may not be a lot, but it could be the three you mention...RIV, VDH, and Poly tower. So, owners with direct points do have more options than resale...now, whether those options matter now or in the future, is an individual decision.

But, I know that 2042 is still 19 years away, but I bet in 15 years, you are going to see more BWV and BCV owners using points more exclusively at those locations...to get in the last stays at those resorts...and trading for resale buyers will shrink....by then, there will most likely be even more.

So, if Poly tower becomes a new association, and it comes out decently priced, then it drive those prices down if the initial gap, like VGF, makes going direct a better choice. But, anyone buying PVB now, and before any decision is made, should at least, IMO, assume Poly tower won't be available for booking using those points, and be okay with that.

 

[Paul Stupin]

If it drives poly1 resale even lower, it should be substantially cheaper.

You could look at that another way. While selling, the only resorts poly2 will have over poly1 at WDW is RIV (no guarantee they can use this though) and, well, poly.

I guess there is a possibility VDH could be a benefit, *if* you also go to California and *if* you actually are able to transfer in at 7 months. I guess some people might buy on the hope of new resorts in a couple decades, which they may or may not be able to transfer into.

Yes, I agree, VDH will be a big benefit. And considering that Poly2 was announced right as VGF 2 sales started, I think we’ll see other new DVC expansions/Towers a lot sooner than two decades, especially around the Epcot areas. All that, of course, is closed to Poly1 resale.

But you’re also right, Poly2 will drive Poly1 resale downward, but I’m sure not sure a product’s diminishing worth is a particularly good selling point.

 

[havoc315]

I don't really see that as *that* restricted. If you are going to WDW for the next 10 years, there is maybe 1 resort you can't stay at, and since the theme isn't even in the ballpark of poly I can't see someone who prefers that resort buying at poly hoping for a stay at RIV. They would just buy RIV wouldn't they?

But what if they want to stay at the Poly tower? Want a Poly 1BR or 2BR? I could certainly see someone who likes the Poly wanting to stay at the whole Poly.

… and what if they are actually think a whole 18 years ahead… realizing that in 18 years, they would be restricted out of potentially more than half the resorts.

That’s quite restricted.

If you look at the resale restrictions (which many seem to do judging by the threads for RIV here) you can still access almost all resorts if you decide to buy or sell poly1 resale. Poly1 resale will also be substantially cheaper than poly2 direct.

Probably not substantially. Poly2 will have incentives, probably about 20% more than resale.

But you said it yourself — if you want Riv, then buy Riv. If you want Poly1, then you can buy Poly1 resale. If you want Poly2 only, you can buy Poly2 resale. But if you want all 3— if you even want just 2 of the 3, then you have to buy direct.

A poly2 resale buyer is getting an inferior product to a poly1 resale buyer, unless they plan to stay only at poly 1/2 bedrooms in the new tower.

And Poly studios in the new tower, and Grand Villas. I dare say that a Poly2 resale buyer is getting the superior product — 4 different room types at Poly. While a Poly1 resale buyer only gets studios (and bungalows).

But… ultimately, they are both “restricted” as is the resale general direction. Only way to get unrestricted is to buy direct.

And Direct Poly2 would be far far more valuable than resale of Poly1 or Poly2.

I have no idea whether or not that will actually impact the resale value of poly1 vs poly2 though.

 

[havoc315]

If it drives poly1 resale even lower, it should be substantially cheaper.

You could look at that another way. While selling, the only resorts poly2 will have over poly1 at WDW is RIV (no guarantee they can use this though) and, well, poly.

So… “only” the 2 newest nicest resorts are off limits… as well as the newest resort in California..

That seems like a pretty big deal. It’s like saying, “come to Epcot and ride anything you want except Ratatouille and Guardians of the Galaxy.. but go ride Spaceship Earth as much as you want!”

And then knowing… that within 17 years, those resale points will be valid at only about half the resorts (and the older half). Like buying an annual pass, but after 6 months, the annual pass only covers older secondary attractions.

I guess there is a possibility VDH could be a benefit, *if* you also go to California and *if* you actually are able to transfer in at 7 months. I guess some people might buy on the hope of new resorts in a couple decades, which they may or may not be able to transfer into.

Anyway, I do see why people buy direct. I would like to own direct myself. However, I wouldn't bother purchasing poly 2 if they aren't the same association. Everyone has different circumstances. I would either just add more resale points, or if I went the route of selling contracts to buy direct (don't see that happening) I think VGF would be the resort I would go through that for (prior to the sale of poly2 when the plan is announced) since it doesn't have the resale restrictions.

 

[lovethesun12]

I know people mention that future resorts are not guaranteed, but as long as DVD makes them part of DVC, then direct points will be eligible there. Nothing they have done has every limited where direct points can be used. So, if they continue with restrictions, its a safe bet that your direct points will be good at all those future resorts.

Buying resale means they will not. But, the point is that resale does carry restrictions and it may not be a lot, but it could be the three you mention...RIV, VDH, and Poly tower. So, owners with direct points do have more options than resale...now, whether those options matter now or in the future, is an individual decision.

But, I know that 2042 is still 19 years away, but I bet in 15 years, you are going to see more BWV and BCV owners using points more exclusively at those locations...to get in the last stays at those resorts...and trading for resale buyers will shrink....by then, there will most likely be even more.

So, if Poly tower becomes a new association, and it comes out decently priced, then it drive those prices down if the initial gap, like VGF, makes going direct a better choice. But, anyone buying PVB now, and before any decision is made, should at least, IMO, assume Poly tower won't be available for booking using those points, and be okay with that.

Yes I'm in the group that just bought more resale at poly, understanding it quite likely won't be used at the tower. I am meh on direct because I don't think the pros outweigh the cons, but I do have FOMO for sure. I was considering selling my contracts and buying VGF when the price was announced along with the fact it's the same association. In the process of deciding (before my next visit, I can't purchase over the phone due to laws here) the news of the tower came out so I decided to wait.

I would prefer the tower was the same association so I could add on enough for a 1/2 bedroom and use with my other contracts, but I don't expect it to be. In that case, I just don't think I'll even bother with direct given the hassle, but will consider the VGF route again depending on the pricing at that time.

 

[lovethesun12]

So… “only” the 2 newest nicest resorts are off limits… as well as the newest resort in California..

That seems like a pretty big deal. It’s like saying, “come to Epcot and ride anything you want except Ratatouille and Guardians of the Galaxy.. but go ride Spaceship Earth as much as you want!”

And then knowing… that within 17 years, those resale points will be valid at only about half the resorts (and the older half). Like buying an annual pass, but after 6 months, the annual pass only covers older secondary attractions.

Why do we say buy where you want to stay then?

I think saying it's worthwhile for those reasons is like saying GOTG and Remy will likely be completely booked with ILL and virtual queue the day you come to the park, but if you pay extra and come to the park anyway and line up we *may* get you in if a lot of people cancel and no one else looking for a ride gets to the park before you.

You could just buy an ILL for GOTG and Remy yourself if you really want to ride.

 

[Sandisw]

Why do we say buy where you want to stay then?

I think saying it's worthwhile for those reasons is like saying GOTG and Remy will likely be completely booked with ILL and virtual queue the day you come to the park, but if you pay extra and come to the park anyway and line up we *may* get you in if a lot of people cancel and no one else looking for a ride gets to the park before you.

You could just buy an ILL for GOTG and Remy yourself if you really want to ride.

It is important to buy where you want to stay. That remains true.

But having options can be good too because some do like to stay more than one place occasionally or like split stays like we do.

And, If someone really has one they go to over and over, then restrictions don’t really matter to them

I still think the majority of the buyers care more about the use of DVC then what the resale value will be

It makes much more sense for DVD to make this new and continue making resale and direct different products. Add in the potential for more membership extras, and it further helps push people to spend that little bit extra.

Definitely happy for you that you knew being shut out didn’t matter enough to not buy.

 

[Nursemanit]

Right now and for the foreseeable future the only resort you lose out on is RR which is at best an overpriced moderate.

 

[havoc315]

Why do we say buy where you want to stay then?

Exactly. Which is why Poly1 resale won’t have any “extra” value. It will have value for people who want to stay at Poly1. Poly2 will have value for people who want to stay at Poly2. Riv with value for those that want to stay at Riv.
And direct for those that want all of the above.

I think saying it's worthwhile for those reasons is like saying GOTG and Remy will likely be completely booked with ILL and virtual queue the day you come to the park,

No, not “likely.” Absolute certainty — your ticket does not include GOTG, Remy, ROTR, Slinky, Tron, Mine Train, or FOP.
You are completely excluded from those rides with your “resale” ticket. Such ticket will have greatly diminished value, even if still valid for 80% of the rides.
And that’s where we will be with DVC resale in just a few years.

but if you pay extra and come to the park anyway and line up we *may* get you in if a lot of people cancel and no one else looking for a ride gets to the park before you.

You could just buy an ILL for GOTG and Remy yourself if you really want to ride.

Nope… your ticket is totally invalid. Just as a Poly1 ticket is potentially invalid for Riv, Poly2 and VDH.

 

[RoseGold]

So… “only” the 2 newest nicest resorts are off limits… as well as the newest resort in California..

That seems like a pretty big deal. It’s like saying, “come to Epcot and ride anything you want except Ratatouille and Guardians of the Galaxy.. but go ride Spaceship Earth as much as you want!”

I mean, yea, there will always be the newest thing. And maybe Poly2 will be GOTG, but RIV sure isn't. I'm OK over here on Soarin' at the Beach Club for now. I'll be out in less than 10 years anyway, so I'm good. Though, to be fair, I would have bought points at the Star Wars hotel, and I don't even like Star Wars.

There is a price point at which people will stop buying. It's possible RIV was that price point. With the increases in charts, minimums, and price per point, there is a point where sticker shock kicks in. Minimum RIV buy in is over $30K. That's a lot. And suddenly a legacy starter contract looks pretty good, even if it expires in 10 years. As 2042 gets closer, DVC will be competing against those contracts.