Poly1 v (?) Poly 2

[Sandisw]

I have said many times that the Resale restrictions are here to stay. My only point is they will not want to have 2 resorts selling at the same time with the restrictions. The resort after the Poly tower will have the restrictions.

So, if RIV sales take off and is closer to be considered “sold out” by the time Poly tower needs to go on sale, then they would put them in place because there won’t be a lot of overlap. Could be why they are in no rush to make the decision.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I have said many times that the Resale restrictions are here to stay. My only point is they will not want to have 2 resorts selling at the same time with the restrictions. The resort after the Poly tower will have the restrictions.

I don't think Disney will care the slightest if they have any number of new resorts selling simultaneously with resale restrictions. Both VDH and Poly2 will be big draws regardless, so in my opinion its a no brainer that both will have restrictions. Not sure where you got the notion that every other new resort will have them, so in your opinion they’re supposed to alternate? Seems implausible and odd. If you discount VGF2 for all the reasons we've already discussed, its just pure conjecture that doesn't make much sense at all.

 

[DVChris]

A big part of Poly1's appeal is that the studio fits 5 and the split bath. The studio at VDH appears to fit only 4 and no split bath. It will be interesting to see if Poly2 will follow VDH in order to squeeze in as many rooms as possible into the tower. If so, how many will lose interest in Poly2?

 

[AvidDisReader]

I don't think Disney will care the slightest if they have any number of new resorts selling simultaneously with resale restrictions. Both VDH and Poly2 will be big draws regardless, so in my opinion its a no brainer that both will have restrictions. Not sure where you got the notion that every other new resort will have them, so in your opinion they’re supposed to alternate? Seems implausible and odd. If you discount VGF2 for all the reasons we've already discussed, its just pure conjecture that doesn't make much sense at all.

We just do not agree on this issue. I never said every other resort will be restrictions, so do not put words in my mouth. I will look at each resort on a case by case basis. Poly tower will be part of Poly 1, that is my opinion. The next resort should be ready for sale about the time RIV is selling out. It is a no brainer in my opinion to not have resale restrictions on the new Poly Tower, but continue on the next project. Also, your conjecture just does not make any sense to me at all, but unlike you I accept everyone's opinion. We will see what we will see.

 

[Paul Stupin]

We just do not agree on this issue. I never said every other resort will be restrictions, so do not put words in my mouth. I will look at each resort on a case by case basis. Poly tower will be part of Poly 1, that is my opinion. The next resort should be ready for sale about the time RIV is selling out. It is a no brainer in my opinion to not have resale restrictions on the new Poly Tower, but continue on the next project. Also, your conjecture just does not make any sense to me at all, but unlike you I accept everyone's opinion. We will see what we will see.

Yes we do disagree! So, as has been brought up several times, if DVC owners or new buyers want to stay in the new Poly tower, if it’s in the same Poly1 association, there’s no need to buy direct points from Disney, right? They can just buy cheaper resale Poly contracts, the kind on which Disney makes zero money, correct? Even Poly owners could skip buying direct and just buy more resale if they wanted more points, right? The price of resale would go up, but it would have to stay below Disney’s direct price for contracts to be bought or sold.

Am assuming the Poly2 construction costs are in the hundreds of millions of dollars. That’s a lot of money for Disney to spend in order to give Poly resale a huge shot in the arm. Of course less knowledgable buyers would go the direct route, but many wouldn’t, and that’s a lot less money for Disney. But, uh, maybe they don’t care?

 

[RoseGold]

I think there's no reason to make the decision until they are forced to. A lot can happen in the next couple years, and it might not get built at all. No need to pin them down if Poly2 ends up actually opening 2030 and they want to do restrictions.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I think there's no reason to make the decision until they are forced to. A lot can happen in the next couple years, and it might not get built at all. No need to pin them down if Poly2 ends up actually opening 2030 and they want to do restrictions.

True. But if Disney announced the restrictions now, I think it would cause downward pressure on Poly 1 resale prices, for years, and that doesn’t seem good for business either, especially if the tower doesn’t get built. So if I were them I’d wait as well.

 

[RoseGold]

A big part of Poly1's appeal is that the studio fits 5 and the split bath. The studio at VDH appears to fit only 4 and no split bath. It will be interesting to see if Poly2 will follow VDH in order to squeeze in as many rooms as possible into the tower. If so, how many will lose interest in Poly2?

Room variety is a good thing. Some value tower studios help the pitch and the math, even if there aren't many of them. I would expect to see tower studios, like at DLT and RIV.

 

[Sandisw]

Yes we do disagree! So, as has been brought up several times, if DVC owners or new buyers want to stay in the new Poly tower, if it’s in the same Poly1 association, there’s no need to buy direct points from Disney, right? They can just buy cheaper resale Poly contracts, the kind on which Disney makes zero money, correct? Even Poly owners could skip buying direct and just buy more resale if they wanted more points, right? The price of resale would go up, but it would have to stay below Disney’s direct price for contracts to be bought or sold.

Am assuming the Poly2 construction costs are in the hundreds of millions of dollars. That’s a lot of money for Disney to spend in order to give Poly resale a huge shot in the arm. Of course less knowledgable buyers would go the direct route, but many wouldn’t, and that’s a lot less money for Disney. But, uh, maybe they don’t care?

Regardless of what we all think , or what someone’s opinion is, these are points that DVD will consider when deciding what and how to go,

I too think they are waiting to share/make the decision until they need to make that decision.

It is hard to see why DVD would go the same association if restrictions stay a goal. At some point, they will have to have more than one Selling with them and if VDH comes with them…yes, I know.l.different coast…they will be supporting that restrictions are still on their radar.

Plus, DVD really only cares about sales and marketing and making people want to be part of DVC.

Sure, guest happiness is important but not everyone sees restrictions as a negative. And, we already know some of us want Poly tower to be it’s own resort and I am sure they know that as well.

Going to be a long 15 to 18 months! Lol

 

[AvidDisReader]

Ok, let me take the time to more fully explain my rational. First, like GFV, they will ROFR all Poly contracts in the 4 to 6 months prior to selling the new points, thus driving up demand. Second, selecting Poly as the next new offering was not an accident. I look at the big picture of Disney, they have not issued a dividend in 2 years and are carrying a ton of debt. I believe picking Poly was not necessary a DVD decision, but by those high up. This is a money grab. A recession is on the horizon. Disney needs CASH and they need it now. While Resale restrictions are DVD plans for the future, right now the corp wants cash fast. Do the restrictions cause a slow down in sales? If we learned one thing is that it does for existing owners who are major drivers in the selling of GFV (over 25% of total points sold in 3 months). So do not take the chance, offer Poly tower as part of Poly one for quick churn of points. On the back side of the recession, full go on future resorts and restrictions.

 

[Sandisw]

Ok, let me take the time to more fully explain my rational. First, like GFV, they will ROFR all Poly contracts in the 4 to 6 months prior to selling the new points, thus driving up demand. Second, selecting Poly as the next new offering was not an accident. I look at the big picture of Disney, they have not issued a dividend in 2 years and are carrying a ton of debt. I believe picking Poly was not necessary a DVD decision, but by those high up. This is a money grab. A recession is on the horizon. Disney needs CASH and they need it now. While Resale restrictions are DVD plans for the future, right now the corp wants cash fast. Do the restrictions cause a slow down in sales? If we learned one thing is that it does for existing owners who are major drivers in the selling of GFV (over 25% of total points sold in 3 months). So do not take the chance, offer Poly tower as part of Poly one for quick churn of points. On the back side of the recession, full go on future resorts and restrictions.

I definitely think Poly was chosen on purpose. But you really don’t think the Poly..being in the MK area and priced right won’t sell better than RIV is with restrictions?

VGF is doing well and I am sure it’s in part because of no restrictions but not sure that is the only reason.

 

[AvidDisReader]

I definitely think Poly was chosen on purpose. But you really don’t think the Poly..being in the MK area and priced right won’t sell better than RIV is with restrictions?

VGF is doing well and I am sure it’s in part because of no restrictions but not sure that is the only reason.

That is just the point. On this we can agree in that we do no KNOW what is the cause on RIV sales. In a money grab, eliminate all doubt and go for the cash. I never saw what the big draw is on the new GFV units, yet they are selling like hotcakes. I really like the new RIV, but at current rate will take 4 more years to sell out. Disney Corp does not want to take the chance of 5 plus years to sell out the Poly tower, they want the money now.

 

[RoseGold]

In a money grab, eliminate all doubt and go for the cash. I never saw what the big draw is on the new GFV units, yet they are selling like hotcakes.

You don't see the appeal of the flagship resort next door to MK?

The money grab option wouldn't be a giant tower from scratch and moving around all that parking and stuff. It would be another cheap flip, like the bad view Yacht Club or Jambo, or even a wing of CB/RIV.

 

[Sandisw]

That is just the point. On this we can agree in that we do no KNOW what is the cause on RIV sales. In a money grab, eliminate all doubt and go for the cash. I never saw what the big draw is on the new GFV units, yet they are selling like hotcakes. I really like the new RIV, but at current rate will take 4 more years to sell out. Disney Corp does not want to take the chance of 5 plus years to sell out the Poly tower, they want the money now.

The only thing is I am not sure people are buying VGF for the new units…we didn’t…but did to get home resort for the 1 and 2 bedrooms since all those resort studio points will most likely change our ability to get them with our SSR points like we have been

Poly tower won’t have that issue…I think that will sell itself and one thing I do believe..even though RIV is my favorite,,is that people will overlook restrictions for the Poly that wouldn’t for RIV.

If RIV is still not sold out or closer to sold out…I can see them just saying forget it, price Poly tower less with the restrictions because it is located so close to MK. If they want to do it all, get the money grab, I think they will find a way and stick with them.

I think abandoning them for Poly will honestly make it harder for them to sell it as a direct benefit down the line because people could be soured that it was put in play and then abandoned for not only VGF but for Poly. tower which was a ground up full fledged resort with pretty much it all.

So, if they don’t put them on Poly tower, I think it will mean they changed course, and could be for the all the reasons you mention.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I still maintain, in the big scheme of things, that the restrictions on resale points are meaningless to the average buyer, whether a current member or not. I've often seen the point being made here on DIS that the average first-time buyer isn't as aware of all the ins and outs of DVC, resale, etc. as are many of the people here. I've also seen it argued that the average, run-of-the-mill member also doesn't have the same level of awareness as folks here do. Granted, it is likely a deeper knowledge than a newbie, but still not like many here.

So, if we accept both of these premises then the overall percentage of buyers that have the in-depth knowledge, understanding, and interest in resale restrictions has to be pretty darned small and the number of points in play with this subset is a rounding error in overall sales.

Resale restrictions are a big deal to many of the savvier DVC buyers, but I have serious doubts that it is a factor at all to the majority of buyers.

Just my $.02

 

[AvidDisReader]

The only thing is I am not sure people are buying VGF for the new units…we didn’t…but did to get home resort for the 1 and 2 bedrooms since all those resort studio points will most likely change our ability to get them with our SSR points like we have been

Poly tower won’t have that issue…I think that will sell itself and one thing I do believe..even though RIV is my favorite,,is that people will overlook restrictions for the Poly that wouldn’t for RIV.

If RIV is still not sold out or closer to sold out…I can see them just saying forget it, price Poly tower less with the restrictions because it is located so close to MK. If they want to do it all, get the money grab, I think they will find a way and stick with them.

I think abandoning them for Poly will honestly make it harder for them to sell it as a direct benefit down the line because people could be soured that it was put in play and then abandoned for not only VGF but for Poly. tower which was a ground up full fledged resort with pretty much it all.

So, if they don’t put them on Poly tower, I think it will mean they changed course, and could be for the all the reasons you mention.

That would be correct if DVD is making the call, but as I said before I do not believe that is the case. This is a Disney Corp decision, so I could see DVD being told let's put a hold on restrictions and just sell the points without them. I am not going to respond any more, as we do not seem to be swaying each other. I have stated what my opinion is and it does no good to go over the same issues.

 

[AvidDisReader]

You don't see the appeal of the flagship resort next door to MK?

The money grab option wouldn't be a giant tower from scratch and moving around all that parking and stuff. It would be another cheap flip, like the bad view Yacht Club or Jambo, or even a wing of CB/RIV.

Nope, do not see the draw of a glorified hotel room, no small kitchen area (again just my opinion, each to their own as for as choice goes). Just to state the obvious but one of the reasons this building was chosen was the Grand Floridian was having trouble booking out all their rooms. In fact, vacationers were being given upgrades to the Grand Floridian when other resorts were overbooked due to available vacancy.

 

[Sandisw]

That would be correct if DVD is making the call, but as I said before I do not believe that is the case. This is a Disney Corp decision, so I could see DVD being told let's put a hold on restrictions and just sell the points without them. I am not going to respond any more, as we do not seem to be swaying each other. I have stated what my opinion is and it does not good to go over the sam

I would be surprised to see Disney Corp running the show…the divisions don’t work that way typically.

But, none of us know unless we have inside info so we can leave it at that

 

[Paul Stupin]

Ok, let me take the time to more fully explain my rational. First, like GFV, they will ROFR all Poly contracts in the 4 to 6 months prior to selling the new points, thus driving up demand. Second, selecting Poly as the next new offering was not an accident. I look at the big picture of Disney, they have not issued a dividend in 2 years and are carrying a ton of debt. I believe picking Poly was not necessary a DVD decision, but by those high up. This is a money grab. A recession is on the horizon. Disney needs CASH and they need it now. While Resale restrictions are DVD plans for the future, right now the corp wants cash fast. Do the restrictions cause a slow down in sales? If we learned one thing is that it does for existing owners who are major drivers in the selling of GFV (over 25% of total points sold in 3 months). So do not take the chance, offer Poly tower as part of Poly one for quick churn of points. On the back side of the recession, full go on future resorts and restrictions.

As I’ve said, I think the lack of resale restrictions for VGF2 contributes only marginally, if at all, to its greater sales than Riviera. It’s location and iconic stature are impossible to duplicate, and an enormous draw. Flipping a hotel wing with a modest, superficial remodel in 6 months exists in a completely different universe than designing and constructing, from the ground up, a resort tower, restaurants, pools and various amenities for hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars.

Poly2 is the antithesis of a fast cash grab. It’s going to take years! And then even more years! How on earth is this a “fast cash grab“? If anything, it’s a long term investment in DVC. And they’re certainly not going to open it up to resale sales, where they will make zero.

Also, if Disney hasn’t yet decided, a chance I personally think is quite slim, the success of VDH with resale restrictions will seal the deal. The fact that it’s on the west coast is immaterial. Like DVC in general, I would bet buyers will come from across the US.

 

[rljslo]

It’s less than the average Poly guest. Much much less. The average Poly guest is paying $700-$800 per night plus tickets and dining. A DVC guest isn’t spending more on tickets than the average guest. A DVC guest is paying the same or less on dining than an average guest (the whole point of the kitchens). The only place where a DVC guest spends more than the average guest is in the direct point purchase. Take away that direct point purchase — the resale buyer is giving a fraction of the revenue from an average cash guest or an average direct buyer.

Will you PLEASE stop making sense? Lol... very good - actually excellent - points. I stand corrected.... I got ROFR'd twice so I'm just being grumpy. Thank you for the replies.