Poly Tower Speculation

[🍀TwinsMom]

And this is what's giving me hope that they'll introduce sales with a blowout incentive. Would love a "come and get it while it lasts" pricing to start sales.

That's what I'm thinking. Revenge travel tanking, domestic travel cooling, CFW points to sell to a dubious crowd for a site not adjacent to the parks, Riviera to finish selling out. Fingers crossed!

 

[PolyRob]

Completely agree. I think the only big uncertainty I have is how much they lean into the "Theme Park View", if at all.

With TPV, they can keep the Standard View and Lake/Lagoon View points near PVB/VGF levels but still move the entire resort's average points per night per room up.

VGF got the resort studio theme park view category and they're about 45-55% more points than a standard view resort studio/deluxe studio. Not cheap at all!

 

[ehh]

VGF got the resort studio theme park view category and they're about 45-55% more points than a standard view resort studio/deluxe studio. Not cheap at all!

Yeah, even with the fact there's 114 SV, 105 LV, and just 27 TPV, the introduction of them and their ~50% bump in points over SV raised VGF's average studio pts/night (across the year) from ~22.4 to ~24.

With Poly Tower, they have a lot of lagoon-facing rooms that point toward the castle that they could categorize as TPV.

A large proportion of TPV rooms, plus having them in 1BR/2BR/GV/Duos, could mean a solid 10-15% bump in points sold 'without changing the points chart'. I don't see them passing on that opportunity, unless they know that there will be rampant dissatisfaction with the view of the TPV rooms.

 

[0FF TO NEVERLAND]

Half the hotel faces the water, these are gonna be $1,000 a night rooms for sure. Lake views / Theme park hover around 750-1000 on poly 1.

 

[Jwaire]

This tower is going to end up being one of the worst decisions management has made in years for a variety of reasons.

There’s no way they classify those prime firework view rooms with just a lake view designation.

This is going to be the new $$$ on the Seven Seas lagoon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689347039836971009

 

[ehh]

This tower is going to end up being one of the worst decisions management has made in years for a variety of reasons.

There’s no way they classify those prime firework view rooms with just a lake view designation.

This is going to be the new $$$ on the Seven Seas lagoon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689347039836971009

Building rooms that justify high $ or pts seems like a win for management to me.

 

[BamaGuy44]

This tower is going to end up being one of the worst decisions management has made in years for a variety of reasons.

There’s no way they classify those prime firework view rooms with just a lake view designation.

This is going to be the new $$$ on the Seven Seas lagoon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689347039836971009

Why would that be a mistake from Disney's perspective? They don't have any trouble filling expensive rooms at the monorail resorts.

 

[awestbrook23]

This tower is going to end up being one of the worst decisions management has made in years for a variety of reasons.

There’s no way they classify those prime firework view rooms with just a lake view designation.

This is going to be the new $$$ on the Seven Seas lagoon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689347039836971009

I actually think it will go pretty well for management. My rationale is that this is new construction at a high profile monorail resort. It's much more visibly "obvious" and likely to spark interest for casual park-goers when compared to Riviera, and the recent retrofits, such as VGF, Copper Creek, and the original PVB (with the exception of cabins/bungalow construction). Most people who visit WDW and stay off property or at all-star resorts/some of the moderates never see any deluxe resorts except the ones on the monorail line unless they happen to take some other transportation method between parks or make a resort dining reservation. I would guess the majority don't even have DVC on their radar. But EVERYONE sees the monorail resorts.

I don't think they will have any problem at all selling out this tower just based on visibility/location/curiosity alone. According to the data I found, Bay Lake Tower - a similar high profile new build on the monorail - was built and opened during the Great Recession, yet it still managed to fully sell out its 5.7M points in less than 3 years. Comparatively, Riviera opened during a strong economy and endured the 2021/2022 DVC boom (minus the 2020 COVID closure), yet Disney had sold only about 50% of Riviera's 6.7M points when it hit the 4-year mark this past spring.

 

[Jwaire]

My rationale is that this is new construction at a high profile monorail resort.

That's the problem. It's not a new monorail resort. It's a tower that's piggybacking off an already busy and stressed monorail resort.

If they wanted to build a completely new resort at that location, fine. But that's not what they chose to do because of $$$.

It's going to have lasting repercussions on infrastructure and amenities for years.

They don't have any trouble filling expensive rooms at the monorail resorts.

That's actually not true. That's how we got PVB and GFV's Big Pine Key in the first place.

 

[Cybertruck]

That's the problem. It's not a new monorail resort. It's a tower that's piggybacking off an already busy and stressed monorail resort.

Agree, increase riders is the last thing the monorails need. Past their prime. But it is way to help fund their replacement. I can already at hear at the annual meeting transport costs increased at these resorts when that finally happens.

That's actually not true. That's how we got PVB and GFV's Big Pine Key in the first place.

My view Disney built DVCs to shift costs to us members.

 

[Jwaire]

My view Disney built DVCs to shift costs to us members.

Definitely built PVB, CCV and Big Pine Key to shift room inventory to members, but that's OK. We love them.

Agree, increase riders is the last thing the monorails need. Past their prime. But it is way to help fund their replacement. I can already at hear at the annual meeting transport costs increased at these resorts when that finally happens.

They had an opportunity to get free new ones from Siemens and blew it.

And it's not just the monorail. The Poly bus service has been scaled back too. We waited over 60 minutes just for a bus to Studios last September. It was ridiculous. Now you're going to add a tower to that? The boats are pretty full too considering they also go to Grand Floridian.

It's just going to snowball. More crowds at an already busy Trader Sam's, the Volcano pool is crowded during the night, Ohana is tough to get into, you have all the locals parking at the resort to avoid the TTC, etc.

I don't think current management is interested in anything but short term gains.

 

[Mai Ku Tiki]

While at Aulani, we talked with someone who worked at one of the top resorts in Poipu. (Unfortunately, I forget the name of the resort he worked at). He was born and raised on Kauai. His family are not fans of the Marriott or St Regis.

 

[Cybertruck]

And it's not just the monorail. The Poly bus service has been scaled back too. We waited over 60 minutes just for a bus to Studios last September. It was ridiculous. Now you're going to add a tower to that? The boats are pretty full too considering they also go to Grand Floridian.

Yikes, the last time we stayed at Poly there was no DVC. Shortly after that say we made jump to DVC but need 1 or 2 bedrooms for our stays. We are looking to buy at PVB2 but 60 minutes for a bus is insane. I did notice road improvements, expanded World Drive to 4 lanes so hopefully that will improve the logistics.

 

[Mai Ku Tiki]

Stayed at the Poly '72 & thought then it was designed in the longhouse image of the legendary Coco Palms on Kauai.
Stayed at CoCoPalms '85 & yep, was convinced of it.
Sadly, it was destoyed by Hurricane Iniki '92.
Now, the new TOWER...Similar to newer hotels in all over Hawai'i (New Kona Village Resort on Big Island an exception)...And to me very similar to Aulani...
Bottom line: Nothing not to like going forward...Just to decide buy now or buy later.

Aloha & thoughts for all those impacted in Lahaina, Maui & on the Big Island.

 

[Mai Ku Tiki]

We always noticed that Kaua’i was a little different and in a good way. Relatedly, Kaua’i was never conquered by Kamehameha.

Aloha! Are you able to share here your thoughts on Kaua'i timeshares?
Considering Aulani but can't imagine getting all the way to Oahu & not going to Kaua'i as well...

 

[Brian Noble]

My view Disney built DVCs to shift costs to us members.

I think it is more about shifting risk than cost, and have thought that for a while.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/disney-resorts-occupancy-rates.3526255/post-56147965

 

[PolyRob]

Definitely built PVB, CCV and Big Pine Key to shift room inventory to members, but that's OK. We love them.



They had an opportunity to get free new ones from Siemens and blew it.

And it's not just the monorail. The Poly bus service has been scaled back too. We waited over 60 minutes just for a bus to Studios last September. It was ridiculous. Now you're going to add a tower to that? The boats are pretty full too considering they also go to Grand Floridian.

It's just going to snowball. More crowds at an already busy Trader Sam's, the Volcano pool is crowded during the night, Ohana is tough to get into, you have all the locals parking at the resort to avoid the TTC, etc.

I don't think current management is interested in anything but short term gains.

In all fairness Poly is also overrun by guests not staying at Poly. 'Ohana doesn't only fill from resort guests. I am guilty of it because I walk over from GF every time I stay there.

I am hopeful the tower adds deluxe dining, more QS dining, and an additional shop. It has it's own pool with splash pad and parking lot based on the plans. It will probably have it's own porte cochere, bell services, and concierge/check-in like VGF1 since it's going to have the parking lot and lobby. I agree with the monorail issue, but the tower will be close to VGF1 and if I were staying at Poly2 I would just walk to MK. I prefer walkable resorts.

Yikes, the last time we stayed at Poly there was no DVC. Shortly after that say we made jump to DVC but need 1 or 2 bedrooms for our stays. We are looking to buy at PVB2 but 60 minutes for a bus is insane. I did notice road improvements, expanded World Drive to 4 lanes so hopefully that will improve the logistics.

All busses from MK resorts are terrible. Nothing is close and they're shared. CR/WL isn't much better.

Waiting at AK for a Poly/GF or CR/WL bus is terrible. In years past I would jump on whichever arrived first just to leave the park. Now I would ride share, Minnie Van, or just drive myself. WDW's bus problem is much larger than Poly.

 

[maui22]

The last couple years of revenge travel make it easy to forget the frequent deals Disney hotels had to do to fill rooms.

Before DVC, Disney had post 9/11 40% off promotions and still had many rooms available. During Great Recession they had the same 40% off promotion but then increased it to buy 4 get 3 free. During Great Recession, even with those deals the had to close several hotels, moving/upgrading people to other resorts. Some were upgraded from moderates to 1BR and 2BR SSR rooms (Disney had a ton of points and used the upgrades to convince some to buy DVC).

Many new owners used to complain about no free dining deals With DVC. As people pointed out back then, every DVC owner could still pay full price for a hotel room to get the free dining promotions.

 

[MartyParty]

I think it is more about shifting risk than cost, and have thought that for a while.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/disney-resorts-occupancy-rates.3526255/post-56147965

Yep, agree with your analysis Brian.

Mitigating risk against low to no travel. No cash resorts built in over 10 years. With DVC it’s cash up front plus maintenance costs for facilities covered via dues even if folks don’t travel. Also % of some future guests secured for fear of not using or losing their points.

Makes for a good mitigated business plan.

 

[emchen]

In all fairness Poly is also overrun by guests not staying at Poly. 'Ohana doesn't only fill from resort guests. I am guilty of it because I walk over from GF every time I stay there.

I am hopeful the tower adds deluxe dining, more QS dining, and an additional shop. It has it's own pool with splash pad and parking lot based on the plans. It will probably have it's own porte cochere, bell services, and concierge/check-in like VGF1 since it's going to have the parking lot and lobby. I agree with the monorail issue, but the tower will be close to VGF1 and if I were staying at Poly2 I would just walk to MK. I prefer walkable resorts.


All busses from MK resorts are terrible. Nothing is close and they're shared. CR/WL isn't much better.

Waiting at AK for a Poly/GF or CR/WL bus is terrible. In years past I would jump on whichever arrived first just to leave the park. Now I would ride share, Minnie Van, or just drive myself. WDW's bus problem is much larger than Poly.

The new bus fleet (circa 2021) was a huge wasted opportunity...instead of replacement with electric buses. Disneyland Resort did it around the same time (with cooperation with Anaheim/OC transit). So much quieter, zero exhaust smell, would've been a game changer and made the wait tolerable - pleasurable.