Poly owner, Help me spend $20k-ish

[AstroBlasters]

This is exactly the struggle we had/have. We used to be direct only buyers. BLT at $96/pt during the Great Recession effected fire sale. Then PVB (can’t recall if it was 160-165). Those resorts didn’t have restrictions and at least held resale value fairly well or really well. Story was the same from people who bought during DVCs first 25 or so years. The equation changed and really makes it difficult for us.

We bought our first resale and while the sellers were a bit painful (didn’t even respond to the salesperson for nearly a week when it was time to close). However, the savings is significant. We were all set to sign a third PVB contract (returning to direct), but that price difference was a nagging factor. Every night we slept on it, we realized our resale PVB was far better for us. Even if we can’t use at the new resorts, those are not as impactful until 2042. After 2042, BCV/BWV point charts are going to make PVB point charts look reasonable. (My opinion walking access to 2 parks deserves the highest point charts).

I often wonder if Disney would have ever convinced us to buy if the product had changed like it has. I even struggle with the concept of what will happen in 10-20 years to these restricted resorts. Resale buyers will have to book their resort, so the 10-11 month booking might be even more required. That works for 90% of our trips, but 10% of the time we book under 7 months. If estimates of 2% of all direct points get resold each year are correct, after 25 years half of the points in the restricted resorts may be fighting at 11 months. Using RIV (first restricted resort), earlier this year DVD had roughly 800k more points declared than @wdrl (DVCNews sales tracker) showed were sold. RIV has actually been easier to book for 5+ years than it will be once it reaches the sold out stage. 97-98% sold vs 100% declared is much different than RIV (and all new resorts) experience.

BLT direct at $96pp…. having capital during times of a liquidity crisis sure is valuable….

 

[AstroBlasters]

Folks, the OP asked about BUYING points, not selling hypothetical points down the road. We all know about the END OF THE WORLD RIVIERA RESTRICTIONS THAT WILL END LIFE AS WE KNOW IT ON VACATION FOREVERMORE. Sheesh.

Back to the topic at hand, OP is a family of three and already has 250 Poly points. Do they want to double down on more Poly but get less points if direct, or diversify with Riviera or some other product. We're assuming they mean Riviera based on new incentives and their heading title in their question, but maybe they're open to something else.

My vote earlier was diversification for Epcot/HS area and group size utilizing unique smaller room options and standard view booking options. OP can mull that over and see if it resonates or if they want to go baller at Poly.

Folks…. it’s important to take into account how much you can sell an asset for when deciding how much you are willing to pay for it….

 

[Moonspinner]

I would do resale if you already have enough direct points to qualify for member privileges. If you only want to stay at poly, definitely buy more poly. But if you are going to stay at other resorts, I would buy at a different resort to get another early booking window. Good luck. There is no wrong decision here.

 

[Brian Noble]

I'm stalking to see what the 7-month availability will be at Poly. Right now it looks like not great.

I think it is going to be very interesting to see how the villa availability at the Poly evolves. I know if I needed a larger unit there, I'd strongly consider a Favorite Week.

I just don’t see a reasonable price at the moment.

I'm not sure I would expect it to get any better. That doesn't mean "buy now." It could just mean "I will wait until my circumstances change, and if they don't change, I won't buy."

Folks…. it’s important to take into account how much you can sell an asset for when deciding how much you are willing to pay for it….

That's true---if you consider timeshares an asset.

I don't. I consider them liabilities, and assume the money is gone gone gone when I buy it. Getting any back is found money, like change in the couch.

 

[Chili327]

Do I own at Riviera? Yes. Because I wanted an EPCOT area resort, but wanted something that lasted beyond 2042, especially for the Festival of the Arts and Food & Wine Festival (I prefer Poly when we do the Flower & Garden Festival).

Just curious, but why is that?

 

[atthebeachclub]

I'm not sure I would expect it to get any better. That doesn't mean "buy now." It could just mean "I will wait until my circumstances change, and if they don't change, I won't buy."

Yes, this is probably what will happen.

I’m really regretting a few “smart” (but maybe dumb in retrospect) money moves I made a few years ago that are hard to unravel (as an example…staring at my $40k I stuffed into a deferred compensation plan, wishing I didn’t have to leave my job to access that money…).

 

[Brian Noble]

I don't think that's dumb at all. Paying yourself first is always a good idea! Future you will thank current you. I know I am grateful to past me for setting aside money for retirement, the kids' educations, etc. so that I can be in the position I am in now.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I don't think that's dumb at all. Paying yourself first is always a good idea! Future you will thank current you. I know I am grateful to past me for setting aside money for retirement, the kids' educations, etc. so that I can be in the position I am in now.

It can be hard to balance today’s wants and tomorrow’s needs. I tend to historically be an oversaver, but some events have made me reconsider this tendency and work toward a more balanced life approach. But the message does make me feel better; thank you!

 

[AstroBlasters]

Yes, this is probably what will happen.

I’m really regretting a few “smart” (but maybe dumb in retrospect) money moves I made a few years ago that are hard to unravel (as an example…staring at my $40k I stuffed into a deferred compensation plan, wishing I didn’t have to leave my job to access that money…).

If you have access to a NQDC plan then you are likely in a very high tax bracket and also have e a variable income based on bonuses and share vestings.

Future you will most likely be very happy with past you.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I think it is going to be very interesting to see how the villa availability at the Poly evolves. I know if I needed a larger unit there, I'd strongly consider a Favorite Week.


I'm not sure I would expect it to get any better. That doesn't mean "buy now." It could just mean "I will wait until my circumstances change, and if they don't change, I won't buy."


That's true---if you consider timeshares an asset.

I don't. I consider them liabilities, and assume the money is gone gone gone when I buy it. Getting any back is found money, like change in the couch.

The law would consider DVC contracts an asset, although a depreciating one….. it’s not an “investment”, but it is an asset.

How you mentally account for it is of course 100% for you to decide.

But, if someone is looking at 2 cars and one has a 50% instant depreciation and the other has a 25% depreciation then it should be considered even though it is moot if both cars are driven for 20 years until they are worthless.

 

[Brian Noble]

I guess it should be considered. But if I don't like one and like the other, I don't really care. That's because unless my life goes very seriously sideways in a hurry, I'm driving it into the ground one way or the other. I think a DVC purchase is probably in that same category. From where I sit, anyone thinking of a time horizon of less than ten years is probably at least as well off just renting.

Now, if you like both cars equally well, then maybe that matters a little more. But, for me, it is still pretty low on the list of Things That Matter.

-brian, who drives a 2014 Ford Edge with 115K miles and a lot of life left on it!

 

[Brian Noble]

Funny story: For other reasons, I had to put a value on that car about six months back. KBB came in at something like $3,500 or so. I remember thinking that there was no way I would sell it for that little! I mean I'm going to get years more out of it before the maintenance gets to be onerous.

 

[atthebeachclub]

If you have access to a NQDC plan then you are likely in a very high tax bracket and also have e a variable income based on bonuses and share vestings.

Future you will most likely be very happy with past you.

Well…I qualify for the nongovernmental “top hat” 457(b), but I’m pretty sure that’s mostly because the large majority of hospital jobs are underpaid and I’m in the top 15% of earners. I’m not making MD compensation and I am not making Amazon software engineering compensation here either though.

No bonuses or sharevesting, unfortunately! And my income is shockingly steady. To the point that it is boring. Basically exactly what I made at graduation, accounting for inflation. But I’m doing fine and because of my commitment early on to savings (and even a very small pension; hard to believe I have a pension!) I expect to have enough when I retire, which is a lot more than most people can say.

Also, I keep getting more PTO, and earn more PTO per pay period the longer I work here, which I can’t complain about. Certainly helps with the whole Disney vacation thing.

 

[atthebeachclub]

Funny story: For other reasons, I had to put a value on that car about six months back. KBB came in at something like $3,500 or so. I remember thinking that there was no way I would sell it for that little! I mean I'm going to get years more out of it before the maintenance gets to be onerous.

KBB always seems ridiculous to me, too. My car is definitely worth more to me than the quoted numbers.

It’s also a “fancy” (to me anyway) 2018 model with only 45k miles on it. I drive 3k per year. It may last me until death. lol.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Thank you everyone for taking the time to offer your input. So many good points and suggestions!

We want to buy direct so that we can use points wherever we want for the next 40 years. We are in this for the long game, but if we ever downsize our contracts, it will be our 50 Poly resale that goes first. We can see a case for resale points, especially BWV or BC, but after 2042 we would strongly prefer to have direct vs resale. So at WDW that really does leave it between Poly and RIV (CFW we can not justify owning although we'd love to stay there).

Our two favorite resorts are Poly and RIV. As a family of three, Poly longhouses have worked out great. And we've also stayed at BLT, RIV, BC, AUL, VB, AK, and SS. As our tween gets older it would be great to have options for larger accommodations, so our home resort of Poly adding those options seems like hitting the jackpot (well almost). It seems to make sense to add on to Poly so we have the option to stay at studios or larger and then if we want to try to switch at seven months we can. If we get "stuck" at Poly we will always be happy.

Since we love RIV too it would be great to have home resort advantage for RIV studios. But we'd be okay with preferred view if standard is not open. The RIV one bedrooms are gorgeous (we've stayed in one) but the shower situation is actually better in a RIV studio so the Poly longhouse studio or one-bedroom is better for us. RIV two bedrooms would be amazing but we would not need them unless maybe our kid's friends were travelling with us. It is expensive to buy Poly but we are already in for 250 points and don't need to add much to really expand our options. We wonder if adding on at RIV for studios would eventually encourage us to buy even more points than we would if we just added on to our existing Poly. From a practical perspective it seems to make more sense to add to Poly. It would be easier to manage all points at the same resort. There is some RIV FOMO, however. But I think we can switch into RIV enough to make us happy. And, we enjoy staying at all DVC properties.

And as foolish as this may be... we want this to be the last time we add on!

Thanks again!

 

[atthebeachclub]

Thank you everyone for taking the time to offer your input. So many good points and suggestions!

We want to buy direct so that we can use points wherever we want for the next 40 years. We are in this for the long game, but if we ever downsize our contracts, it will be our 50 Poly resale that goes first. We can see a case for resale points, especially BWV or BC, but after 2042 we would strongly prefer to have direct vs resale. So at WDW that really does leave it between Poly and RIV (CFW we can not justify owning although we'd love to stay there).

Our two favorite resorts are Poly and RIV. As a family of three, Poly longhouses have worked out great. And we've also stayed at BLT, RIV, BC, AUL, VB, AK, and SS. As our tween gets older it would be great to have options for larger accommodations, so our home resort of Poly adding those options seems like hitting the jackpot (well almost). It seems to make sense to add on to Poly so we have the option to stay at studios or larger and then if we want to try to switch at seven months we can. If we get "stuck" at Poly we will always be happy.

Since we love RIV too it would be great to have home resort advantage for RIV studios. But we'd be okay with preferred view if standard is not open. The RIV one bedrooms are gorgeous (we've stayed in one) but the shower situation is actually better in a RIV studio so the Poly longhouse studio or one-bedroom is better for us. RIV two bedrooms would be amazing but we would not need them unless maybe our kid's friends were travelling with us. It is expensive to buy Poly but we are already in for 250 points and don't need to add much to really expand our options. We wonder if adding on at RIV for studios would eventually encourage us to buy even more points than we would if we just added on to our existing Poly. From a practical perspective it seems to make more sense to add to Poly. It would be easier to manage all points at the same resort. There is some RIV FOMO, however. But I think we can switch into RIV enough to make us happy. And, we enjoy staying at all DVC properties.

And as foolish as this may be... we want this to be the last time we add on!

Thanks again!

This is the choice I would also make! As someone who owns three locations…I do often wish I only owned at two for convenience. And you will really enjoy this purchase I suspect.

 

[Steelers0854]

Folks, the OP asked about BUYING points, not selling hypothetical points down the road. We all know about the END OF THE WORLD RIVIERA RESTRICTIONS THAT WILL END LIFE AS WE KNOW IT ON VACATION FOREVERMORE. Sheesh.

Unless you can afford to light $20k on fire I think you need to make a decision taking all factors into consideration. Do I think it should be the main factor, not necessarily, but you are making an inference that their financial situation is one where they don’t care about this and I think its best to fully understand what you’re getting into when writing a check for $20k.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Unless you can afford to light $20k on fire I think you need to make a decision taking all factors into consideration. Do I think it should be the main factor, not necessarily, but you are making an inference that their financial situation is one where they don’t care about this and I think its best to fully understand what you’re getting into when writing a check for $20k.

If anyone wants to light $20k on fire, I’ll take it off your hands. LOL. At least with DVC points you are getting something vs lighting money on fire. Holy smokes! What!

 

[Judique]

It's only money....

 

[maui22]

BLT direct at $96pp…. having capital during times of a liquidity crisis sure is valuable….

Disney was in panic mode. 2007-2008 was a shoe shine boy giving stock tips warning. Some were telling people to buy DVC with 10% down payment, take the “free” (incentive stay at SSR). Then, foreclose on the contract. They were pointing out, it was cheaper than staying at a moderate (maybe they said value) resort with discounts available and you stayed at a deluxe.

On top of that boom, DVD added over 10 million points in 2008-2009 for sale thinking those good times would keep going. 2009, Kidani opened, then THV at SSR, August BLT opened, and later that year GCV opened.

Not surprising, Disney also saw major foreclosure crisis (more 2010-2011). Disney used a third party for financing prior to that crisis. That company stopped with DVC financing and Disney took over their own financing sometime in the 2009-2012 window. Tim at DVCNews posted something about it back then.

The BLT spring webcast incentive was as low as $91/pt for more points.

While BLT sounds great, I regret we didn’t choose GCV for $87/pt during the same sale. I believe some bought GCV for 85 or 83/pt direct. It was the first DL DVC and people didn’t know how well it would sell. Some experienced DVC owners from the 90s thought BLT 5.7 million points might sell out before the small GCV.

Resale stories from 2010-2012 make my direct prices look terrible. I recall someone posting they bought BWV resale for $25. They submitted a ton of offers until they found someone who accepted. Thing was there were thousands of sellers and not many buyers.