Point Charts - Call with Disney Management Tomorrow (12/16)

[Sandisw]

Because they asked all of us what we thought? Or they are indicating they know what members will do before they even do it so they don't have to bother doing it? They could never know what you interpret they are using as a basis for no change but I actually did not garner that as their reasoning for that time. "Difficult to balance based on when Thanksgiving and Christmas fall". We all can figure out for decades when those dates are and neither are going to be during Dec 1-14th or even Dec 1-21st. That specific response is a bit non-sensical without further clarification. I'd guess they misspoke on the reason or it's a choice they are making and so were being extremely vague because that choice doesn't align with the reasons that point shifts are being done for other times.

I don’t think I was clear, I was responding to someone who said they shouldn’t be making decision based on WDW demand and I think they were talking about it in conjunction within DVC demands as based on booking patterns.

So, to me, the answer that both are taken into consideration when deciding what and how to adjust does make sense, And, sure, I was surprised early December was kept by itself and not made higher, but only so many dates can shift in the year, and while it seems an odd response, I can sort of understand it.

 

[NoTime42]

If the only out of balance demand/season period is 2 weeks of December, then I think they did a fairly good job, overall.
It was getting ridiculous when 1/3 of the year, October-Mid January was a problem, but I’m not sure 2 weeks is enough to be a major club issue.

 

[Lorana]

I may have missed it, but was the overall increase in total points at PVB addressed at all in the call?

 

[sethschroeder]

I may have missed it, but was the overall increase in total points at PVB addressed at all in the call?

It was not and they were explicit about each resort having a very fixed amount of total points.

I tried apply the 2019/20/21/22 point charts across the life of the contract accounting for days of week but keeping the point chart the same. I could not find a single year in which the point charts were the same across even two of those point charts sometime during the life of the contract to possibly point to a base year.

At a loss might attack another time again.

 

[CarolynFH]

It was not and they were explicit about each resort having a very fixed amount of total points.

I tried apply the 2019/20/21/22 point charts across the life of the contract accounting for days of week but keeping the point chart the same. I could not find a single year in which the point charts were the same across even two of those point charts sometime during the life of the contract to possibly point to a base year.

At a loss might attack another time again.

Did you try using one of the potential base years that @i<3riviera identified, e.g. a year that begins on a Sunday and isn’t a leap year? I think I remember they told you that each resort has its own base year, but I don’t remember anyone saying it was a year that the resort was open.

 

[sethschroeder]

Did you try using one of the potential base years that @i<3riviera identified, e.g. a year that begins on a Sunday and isn’t a leap year? I think I remember they told you that each resort has its own base year, but I don’t remember anyone saying it was a year that the resort was open.

Based on what they said the base year is a real year that exists during the life of the contract. I ran the 2019-2022 point charts against every year between 2016 and 2066 for POLY and 2020 and 2070 for RIV. There was not a single alignment of the totals for the year.

The smallest point difference at POLY for a single year using the 4 different point charts was 70k points in 2032/38/2049/2055/2060/2066.

Ranked it was most expensive 2022, 2020, 2019, and 2021 to least expensive.

I will probably go back through the formulas again. I am not adjusting for:

• Thanksgiving - Shouldn't matter as its always all of November same price except 3 days
• Christmas - Shouldn't matter its a set 24th to 31st
• Easter - This one might actually matter

I am not sure if they adjust for base year easter or not which would throw off the points.

 

[CarolynFH]

Based on what they said the base year is a real year that exists during the life of the contract. I ran the 2019-2022 point charts against every year between 2016 and 2066 for POLY and 2020 and 2070 for RIV. There was not a single alignment of the totals for the year.

The smallest point difference at POLY for a single year using the 4 different point charts was 70k points in 2032/38/2049/2055/2060/2066.

Ranked it was most expensive 2022, 2020, 2019, and 2021 to least expensive.

I will probably go back through the formulas again. I am not adjusting for:

• Thanksgiving - Shouldn't matter as its always all of November same price except 3 days
• Christmas - Shouldn't matter its a set 24th to 31st
• Easter - This one might actually matter

I am not sure if they adjust for base year easter or not which would throw off the points.

Even using a base year, I wouldn’t expect the points charts to add up to exactly the same number of points every time. I think a variance of 1% or less would be reasonable.

 

[Sandisw]

Based on what they said the base year is a real year that exists during the life of the contract. I ran the 2019-2022 point charts against every year between 2016 and 2066 for POLY and 2020 and 2070 for RIV. There was not a single alignment of the totals for the year.

The smallest point difference at POLY for a single year using the 4 different point charts was 70k points in 2032/38/2049/2055/2060/2066.

Ranked it was most expensive 2022, 2020, 2019, and 2021 to least expensive.

I will probably go back through the formulas again. I am not adjusting for:

• Thanksgiving - Shouldn't matter as its always all of November same price except 3 days
• Christmas - Shouldn't matter its a set 24th to 31st
• Easter - This one might actually matter

I am not sure if they adjust for base year easter or not which would throw off the points.

Did they tell you, though, the exact number of points that are in the base year?

Or just said there is a set amount for each resort? Without their number, I think all we can do is estimate,

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Did they tell you, though, the exact number of points that are in the base year?

Or just said there is a set amount for each resort? Without their number, I think all we can do is estimate,

Doesn't the POS outline that the number of points declared at the resort are the number required to book in the base year? That's how the calculate the point assignments to the units.

 

[Sandisw]

Doesn't the POS outline that the number of points declared at the resort are the number required to book in the base year? That's how the calculate the point assignments to the units.

I am not sure which is why I asked. Are the points retained by DVD declared as well?

But the total has to be figured out before declaration or the Charts couldn’t be set until 100% of the units are declared, correct?

I have seen a few different totals around, so wanted to know if they mentioned the exact number on the call because if it is indeed set, and easy to find, then I wondered if they actually gave the number for RIV which is what Seth was asking about.

ETA: I just skimmed through BLT and don’t see it.

 

[sethschroeder]

Even using a base year, I wouldn’t expect the points charts to add up to exactly the same number of points every time. I think a variance of 1% or less would be reasonable.

I don't think so. I don't think even 1 point varition should be expected when they have 500+ rooms, with 365 days, across 6-10 room categories, with currently 7 but no limit on seasons.

As an example if you look at total points for VGF GV it is a 0% change year over year this year.

There is no real legitimate reason it can't be perfectly balanced honestly. Sure maybe a specific room category changes and season changes but not total points. They say they understand it so at this point have to accept that they are not going over the total points based on the base year.

 

[drusba]

I don't think so. I don't think even 1 point varition should be expected when they have 500+ rooms, with 365 days, across 6-10 room categories, with currently 7 but no limit on seasons.

As an example if you look at total points for VGF GV it is a 0% change year over year this year.

There is no real legitimate reason it can't be perfectly balanced honestly. Sure maybe a specific room category changes and season changes but not total points. They say they understand it so at this point have to accept that they are not going over the total points based on the base year.

Do calendar changes mean varying totals? Examples: (a) each 365 day year has 52 weeks plus 1 day. In 2022 that extra day is a weekend day whereas in 2021 it is weekday; (b) in the second highest point season, which is impacted by the date movements for Easter and Thanksgiving, the total number of days have remained the same, but 2021 has 15 weekend days (Fri and Sat) and 2022 has 17.

 

[Sandisw]

Do calendar changes mean varying totals? Examples: (a) each 365 day year has 52 weeks plus 1 day. In 2022 that extra day is a weekend day whereas in 2021 it is weekday; (b) in the second highest point season, which is impacted by the date movements for Easter and Thanksgiving, the total number of days have remained the same, but 2021 has 15 weekend days (Fri and Sat) and 2022 has 17.

I am not sure how this fits in but according to the statue 721.05 (25) reference in the POS about how many points can be sold, it says one to one ratio. In the statue it is defined as 365 days on a regular year, and 366 in the leap year,

That reads to me that DVD can sell points to consider that? But then raises the question that since they do not sell all the points, and maintain ownership, could that give some wiggle room in the charts during whatever they determined is the base year?

 

[Roughians_satchel]

Looking at the discrepancies in Riviera points, I was curious about one of my other home resorts, mainly AKL. It looks like funny stuff is going on there as well - only one "season" goes down in points and 4 other seasons all go up (across multiple room categories.) How is this possible? They can't be declaring more rooms? And then my question is about the base year - does 2022 have an extra day that allows them to add points?

 

[Lorana]

Maybe I'm misremembering, but wasn't the issue with PVB that the total number of points in 2022 exceeds the total number of points in the POS? Regardless of what year is the base year, shouldn't that NOT be possible, since that should be the max # of points in whatever year is the base year? Or am I fundamentally misunderstanding something?

 

[Sandisw]

Maybe I'm misremembering, but wasn't the issue with PVB that the total number of points in 2022 exceeds the total number of points in the POS? Regardless of what year is the base year, shouldn't that NOT be possible, since that should be the max # of points in whatever year is the base year? Or am I fundamentally misunderstanding something?

I have seen different numbers of total points included in a base year. DVC did not say what the base year is and that different resorts have different ones.

Now, reading the FL statute I posted above, it makes me curious as to how that effects things because it says sold, but DVD does not sell all the points...

As I said, I think one has to know what the actual base year is, and what the exact number of points are. I am having trouble finding in my BLT, SSR and RIV POS...maybe someone can tell me the pages?

 

[Sandisw]

Looking at the discrepancies in Riviera points, I was curious about one of my other home resorts, mainly AKL. It looks like funny stuff is going on there as well - only one "season" goes down in points and 4 other seasons all go up (across multiple room categories.) How is this possible? They can't be declaring more rooms? And then my question is about the base year - does 2022 have an extra day that allows them to add points?

It is about the base year, and how many points the 2022 takes away from the total on the chart in that base year. So, you can’t look at 2021 and compare to 2022 only.

I think that is why some of us indicate that a small discrepancy is within reason when we do not have that exact year for each resort,

I averaged both RIV and BLT against max charts and am satisfied that 2022 is in line with what it should be.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Maybe I'm misremembering, but wasn't the issue with PVB that the total number of points in 2022 exceeds the total number of points in the POS? Regardless of what year is the base year, shouldn't that NOT be possible, since that should be the max # of points in whatever year is the base year? Or am I fundamentally misunderstanding something?

It can. It shouldn't be a lot but it can. At least that's my understanding of it.

 

[sethschroeder]

Do calendar changes mean varying totals? Examples: (a) each 365 day year has 52 weeks plus 1 day. In 2022 that extra day is a weekend day whereas in 2021 it is weekday; (b) in the second highest point season, which is impacted by the date movements for Easter and Thanksgiving, the total number of days have remained the same, but 2021 has 15 weekend days (Fri and Sat) and 2022 has 17.

I think @Sandisw said it was well but think of it this way:

• 2021 vs 2022 just adding up total points it will change - as you point out calendar changes and they change the point chart
• 2021 point chart applied to the base year and 2022 point chart applied to the base year both should not surpass the total points for the resort

Its why the base year is important to know. They didn't seem to want to share when I chatted with them but I didn't really push it on that specific call since I was just trying to get some baseline answers to start with.

 

[drusba]

Looking at the discrepancies in Riviera points, I was curious about one of my other home resorts, mainly AKL. It looks like funny stuff is going on there as well - only one "season" goes down in points and 4 other seasons all go up (across multiple room categories.) How is this possible? They can't be declaring more rooms? And then my question is about the base year - does 2022 have an extra day that allows them to add points?

The main complication in figuring out what actually occurred is caused by the fact that 66 summer days, June 11- August 15, were moved down into a lower point season and 66 other days, October and Nov (other than the three Thanskgiving days) and Dec 16-23 were moved to a higher season. When you just look at point changes for those days resulting from those seasonal moves, that summer 66-days went down more than than that fall 66-days went up, and as a result of that difference, an increase in points was spread out to other seasons in the chart, thus creating the probably incorrect impression that there are more increases than decreases.