POC - Good Enough yet? / Weekly Update

[EUROPA]

WOW that is a lot of chest banging for a movie made by Pixar(read Disney had Zero creative control and input in) and movie in it's third week that by all accounts on this board seems to be made up of repeat "Disney hooked" viewers. I never made a call on POTC myself. I thought the whole idea was downright uncreative.( Even though I did go see the movie and liked it a lot.) Thats not to say that it can't make money. I mean come on people the guy that invented the "Pet Rock" was a miilioinare. You just got to wonder when Disney is going to run out of ideas to Milk what Walt did? Or is the next idea going to be a movie based on the Back Lot Tour? Or maybe a movie based on Tower of Terror...opps they did that already.

 

[d-r]

Europa, are you talking to me?

 

[EUROPA]

Originally posted by d-r
Europa, are you talking to me?

Yes... and in general.

 

[d-r]

Well, if it was in particular I don't think you read what I said. I wasn't talking about finding nemo, so let's skip that part instead of getting distracted by it.

And I ain't talking about the future either. I'm talking about today, right here and now.

I'll be crystal clear then. I'm talking to hb2k and AV - I'm talking about AV saying that potc would have a 50% drop, and that a 30% drop is considered "good" (remember that hulk, t3, charlie's angels, matrix reloaded, 2f2f, all dropped around 60% this summer; Bruce and Blond dropped about 45%, even our buddy nemo dropped 33%). Here it is with an under 30% drop (that's right folks, the lowest first week drop of any of the "blockbusters" this sumer), and I'm good naturedly serving up the crow.

But, just like hb2k didn't come around after laughing about reading the matrix had poor word of mouth and then it dropped like a rock, I don't expect anyone to show up for it. I figure there will be a new version of just wait and see it is still going to be a disappointment. But I didn't figure you'd be the one starting it Europa. Anyway, about what you said, I really am beginning to think they have added some appeal to the theme park attraction with the movie, rather than milking what Walt did they are adding to it, making it more interesting to people who wouldn't have found it that appealing before. And I think they did a good job of walking the line between not taking anything away from those of us who liked it already.

Hell, we are just talking about a movie anyway, and its all in fun as far as I'm concerned. Predicting is just predicting and if anybody was always right about it, well they wouldn't be human. I'm just saying if you are going to write a check you ought to be able to cash it.

DR

 

[AKemel]

During my last trip to Disneyland I got a POTC T-shirt. I was wearing it, when I was checking out at a grocery store on Sunday.

The cashier said, “That’s a great movie, did you see it?”
I said, “Not yet, but I rode the ride”

 

[crusader]

Europa -

I'm sure you're probably placing me in that category of chest bangers because I've been brass enough to compliment this movie.

and movie in it's third week that by all accounts on this board seems to be made up of repeat "Disney hooked" viewers.

Not true. Or it would have dropped way below what it has. This movie is generating a wide audience appeal beyond its' loyal fans. There are not enough disneyites to keep a bad picture from tanking. Pirates is a great fun movie and very likable. The people who are going to the theatres are not going because of Disney per se - they would have gone anyway.

 

[EUROPA]

Originally posted by d-r
and I'm good naturedly serving up the crow.

....that is the point. Why? because AV thought it would not do this well. Or that someone was upset because they were taking a 30 year old theme park ride and making a movie out of it? I just don't think you got a lot of Crow to server there. Right here and right now the movie looks good. I'm not sure what else you are really looking for these people to say. AV has said several times that he has sat though what he thought would be blockbusters that ended up tanking and sitting though crap that ended up pulling in millions. The questions are weather this is a good creative plan and a good business plan.....That is taking 30 year old theme park attractions and making them into movies.

 

[Planogirl]

I don't see any reason to serve anyone crow. Predicting these movies is such a difficult thing, I don't see how anyone can get it right very often.

d-r, I like what you wrote though except that I think that you give Orlando Bloom more credit than he deserves. But what can I say, I'm very biased myself. Seriously, I think the appeal of the movie is a combination of cute guys, a few good characters, everyone's childhood desire to be a pirate and those cool skeletons. Word of mouth has obviously been good because people are having fun while they watch the movie. I believe that the vast majority of people (not just girls ) just want to have fun after all. Serious arthouse movies are fine but their box offices don't exactly show that the public is excited about them.

I'm a strong Disney critic and I can definitely get excited when Disney does something right. It doesn't happen often enough in my opinion but rather than find fault, I'm always trying hard to find something good. This movie is "right" so kudos to Disney.

 

[HB2K]

But, just like hb2k didn't come around after laughing about reading the matrix had poor word of mouth and then it dropped like a rock, I don't expect anyone to show up for it. I figure there will be a new version of just wait and see it is still going to be a disappointment. But I didn't figure you'd be the one starting it Europa. Anyway, about what you said, I really am beginning to think they have added some appeal to the theme park attraction with the movie, rather than milking what Walt did they are adding to it, making it more interesting to people who wouldn't have found it that appealing before. And I think they did a good job of walking the line between not taking anything away from those of us who liked it already.

Huh? I don't understand what you're getting at, but I'm going to clarify (once again) where I stood and where I stand.

Here's where I stand.

I have not seen Pirates (as I have said MANY times through this thread). I want to see the movie, but family circumstances have prevented it (and probably will until it's video release).

Through out this thread I have been trying to quash the whole "It's got legs" proclaimation after a single week in release. I made no statements that I thought the movie was poor quality (I haven't seen it).

I will admit that I thought (and stated in this thread) the drop off would have been steeper, and I was wrong on that. Good for Disney....they need any positive news they can get.

But the bottom line is I don't feel anyone can proclaim this movie has legs.....yet. I'd feel comfortable saying it looks like it will have them, but as of now it's still too early to say for sure. Nemo has been out for almost two full months and continues to pull in $8-9 Million a weekend.

When will I say Pirates has legs for sure? Give it a full month and I'll make that statement. For now, it looks like it might have them.

And on that note, I'll leave this thread. I've had enough banging my head against a wall...

 

[*Robin*]

Just as a side note, if this keeps up:Bad Boys

Pirates may be back on top this week!

 

[Peter Pirate]

Thanks for pointing that out Robin...That allowed me to waste a little more time!

While I was at RT I noticed that POC is up to 78% approval as well. Not bad...

While I'm thinking about it, I asked earlier and received no response, does anyone else think that Depps quirky performance just might get him an Oscar nom?

 

[crusader]

And on that note, I'll leave this thread. I've had enough banging my head against a wall...

Sorry about that. Best of luck with your new addition!

Peter - Don't hold you breath waiting for an oscar nod for Depp. Harrison Ford never got one - neither did Arnold or Sean Connery or any of the more entertaining roles for lead actors that I can think of. It's just not considered artistically challenging enough by the Academy, I suppose.

 

[Redcon1]

Wow!
BoxOfficeMojo.com has the actual figures for the weekend out
and another $500,000 or so has been added to POTC's booty
from the estimates.
It's now cleared $133 million and only had a 27% drop!
In fact, it actually took more in on the first weekend than Bad Boys II did: $46.6 to 46.5, as BB II was adjusted as well.
BB II did have a higher screen per average since it played on 83 less screens than POTC did its first weekend.
Still, I wonder if POTC hadn't opened on Wednesday, instead of a Friday, what the weekend gross would've been?

Redcon1

 

[d-r]

I'm not sure what else you are really looking for these people to say.

"Well, it looks like I was wrong on that one."

I will admit that I thought (and stated in this thread) the drop off would have been steeper, and I was wrong on that. Good for Disney....they need any positive news they can get.

And there you have it - see it wasn't that hard!

So, HB2K, if you do look back at this thread, thanks for having a little bite of the crow I was serving, it wasn't too bad now, Lord knows I've had my share. And please let us all know what sort of criteria you'll be looking for in a month, I'm interested in that. Let's don't do it post hoc, now. What seems reasonable to you? Over/Under? 10 million for the fourth weekend?
DR

 

[AKemel]

Most of us root for the home team. It is fun, and if the home team wins, well it is just great. Some of us like to root for the visitor. They have fun egging others and reminding that the home team should be better.

The movie is doing well and I think that's great! But NO ONE could have predicted it.

But the message I will take away is that Disney is still putting big monies to make big movies. The more good movies there are, the happier I will be.

 

[HB2K]

Originally posted by d-r
"Well, it looks like I was wrong on that one."



And there you have it - see it wasn't that hard!

So, HB2K, if you do look back at this thread, thanks for having a little bite of the crow I was serving, it wasn't too bad now, Lord knows I've had my share. And please let us all know what sort of criteria you'll be looking for in a month, I'm interested in that. Let's don't do it post hoc, now. What seems reasonable to you? Over/Under? 10 million for the fourth weekend?
DR

DR-

Quite frankly if you get this much of a rise by getting me to admit I'm wrong about something than I think you should evaluate your free time a little more.

Quite frankly I wasn't going to give this immature post a response, but I'll leave you with this on topic message.

No Pirates is not good enough yet, and I still wonder if it will EVER be good enough.

As a shareholder I question the logic of investing $180 Million dollars for a return of $20-40 Million. The Wachowski's made TWO movies for close to what Pirates

I hardly classify that as a raging success. Heck I can think of better ways to invest $180 Million dollars of capital (Theme parks, products for the stores, multiple movies vs one block buster which will barely cover it's production costs). For a company who is in DESPERATE need of funds, this is a silly use of said capital.

As for how I would classify legs....if the movie hangs in the top 5 (Good Luck) on August 20, I will say it's got legs. That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.

(EDIT to remove some flamable material.)

 

[Another Voice]

Yes, it's looking like Pirates is going to be much better at the box office than I thought. Still doesn't change my opinion of the movie, but it will do some business. If trends continue it should top out at a little over $200 million and place in the top five for the summer.

Yes, it's nice that Disney finally has a summer hit that actually comes from Disney (well, from Jerry anyway). And I see nothing wrong with the company thumping its chest about it – after Treasure Planet and Bad Company and The Recruit and Atlantis they need something.

The best thing for Disney is that film is in the company's "core business" – imaginative family entertainment. If Eisner still can't control his spending, at least he can be guided to spend it in the right areas.

For Hollywood (and the real reason most people in town are crediting the film's box office success), it's another bit of proof that the audience wants something original – not just a string of endless sequels, remakes and moving comic books.

While I still think Pirates is a mediocre movie, if it can help kill the that trend then I will be happy for its success.

 

[d-r]

and thank you, AV-

Quite frankly if you get this much of a rise by getting me to admit I'm wrong about something than I think you should evaluate your free time a little more.

Quite frankly I wasn't going to give this immature post a response, but I'll leave you with this on topic message.

just burns you up doesn't it - maybe if you hadn't been such a smart *** to my wife and then never admitting she was right in the first place I wouldn't have gotten a kick out of it, you reckon? I mean it was nice to see you finally stand up and take credit for something you said, even if it was sort of weak and begrudging. Maybe I should spend some more of my free time hanging out with you.

Thanks for letting us know how you define legs, its a pretty unique definition so its probably good that you let us know up front. That's six weeks, thought you said a month, but whatever.

DR

 

[d-r]

"$20-40 Million. "

Personally, I think they'll pull in a couple hundred million just from video/dvd in the US. And I think the investment will be recouped by then from domestic and international box office, so that will be long past gravy. And that doesn't count the extra theme park tickets they will sell to people who want to go check out the attraction, merchandise, etc.
DR

 

[Another Voice]

The examples are but a few of the big budget "can't miss" blockbusters" of which Eisner is so fond (mostly because they let him pretend he's a big boy in Hollywood).

Whatever box office success (and very marginal profit) Pirates will make still does not disprove that strategy is a bad one for Disney.

At the current trend Pirates will make about the same amount at the box office as Signs did. But the guys in the crops cost much less than half to put on the screen as the skeltons on the boats did. From a "you're running the studio" perspective, which is the better strategy?

As for the studio rankings, Warners seems to have this little movie about hobbits later this year...