POC - Good Enough yet? / Weekly Update

[rwodonnell]

Originally posted by Another Voice
The examples are but a few of the big budget "can't miss" blockbusters" of which Eisner is so fond (mostly because they let him pretend he's a big boy in Hollywood).

This almost seems like a "danged if you do and danged if you don't" (this is a family forum after all ). Some folks get upset at the low-budget releases, claiming poor quality and a watering-down of the Disney name. Others get upset at the big budget variety basically saying they're too much of a risk. I'm not trying to bash what you're saying, just making an observation I guess. I for one am glad they spent the money on Pirates - it turned out to be a very fun movie. Could money have been trimmed from the budget? Probably, but I'm certainly no expert on that topic, not even when it comes to trimming my home budget.

Whatever box office success (and very marginal profit) Pirates will make still does not disprove that strategy is a bad one for Disney.

I don't understand how Pirates' profit is going to be "marginal". Perhaps I don't understand Hollywood accounting. After all, I have heard that Sony is claiming they lost money on Spiderman, so as to screw Stan Lee out of any more money.

As for the studio rankings, Warners seems to have this little movie about hobbits later this year...

Yes, I had the same thought when I read the initial post about which studio will win the year. Still a long way to go.

 

[HB2K]

Some folks get upset at the low-budget releases, claiming poor quality and a watering-down of the Disney name.

Quite the contrary. I'd be thrilled if Disney ran a bunch of mid range budgeted movies such as Princess Diaries, Signs, The Rookie, etc.

Quite frankly I don't care (from a movie watchability perspective) how much a movie cost to make. I want a good story. The above movies (and their modest budgets) were made by someone who cared about the movie....not an intern who was assigned the task of writing a script.

From a stock holder perspective, I'd rather Disney make 2-3 movies from the Pirates budget than 1 "blockbuster".

Don't forget....even if the movie makes $200 Million in theatrical release, there are more people eating from that "pie" than just Disney. The actors, producers, movie theaters (and I'm sure there are others) who all get a cut of the film's box office receipts. So a $200 million box office isn't what it seems to be.

And scoop....while I don't quite get the crux of your post, I'll respond to this line:

Selective examples designed to inaccurately represent the whole

The public's apparent perception of the Disney company is due to the films listed by AV. Lately it seems for every Princess Diaries there are two Block Bombs. That can't continue. While any profit Pirates does make will be marginal, it at least gives the appearance of a success for Disney, and that is something they need to counter the perception that everything they are touching turns to ****.

 

[scooby-the-doo]

Originally posted by Another Voice
of which Eisner is so fond (mostly because they let him pretend he's a big boy in Hollywood).

Er, he is one of the five major players in Hollywood.

 

[crusader]

Whatever box office success (and very marginal profit) Pirates will make still does not disprove that strategy is a bad one for Disney.

When you measure it in terms of simply comparing costs - yes! It is true that strategically a picture like Signs was a much lower risk to produce and generated a tremendous return.

But we really need to take these two examples one step further in terms of the rate of return on an investment such as Pirates vs. Signs:
Which one will yield the most in merchandising?
Which one will yield the most in DVD sales?
Which one will generate a mini fan club ready to buy in to the continuing saga.

There is a fairly prominent consumer market for Pirates which doesn't go away once the movie stops playing and is released on video. For Signs and The Princess Diaries and The Rookie it most certainly does.

This movie will pay off way beyond what we are marginalizing here.

And when it does - this statement will have to be revisited:
.

The examples are but a few of the big budget "can't miss" blockbusters" of which Eisner is so fond (mostly because they let him pretend he's a big boy in Hollywood).

What I'm hoping is the Company becomes a big boy in Hollywood or at least moves beyond that kid image. This may be our year to grow up. With the proper exercize of humility, Eisner may very well gain an access card within the realm of those who have superficially self-coronated themselves following smashing sequel successes such as Raiders; Jaws;Star Wars; and so forth.

Pirates is like a mini soap - it can go on and on.

 

[d-r]

Last night I was playing with the disney world in my attic, and I realized that somehow along the line we had gotten two die cast ride vehicles from pirates of the carribean. I think this might be a good time to e-bay one of them, what do y'all think?

 

[crusader]

Me thinks the bounty just went up on all that vintage Pirate fare mate!

 

[*Robin*]

Originally posted by d-r
Last night I was playing with the disney world in my attic, and I realized that somehow along the line we had gotten two die cast ride vehicles from pirates of the carribean. I think this might be a good time to e-bay one of them, what do y'all think?

Wow! I want a Disneyworld in MY attic!! How'd you do that??

 

[Redcon1]

Yo, Ho, Ho-
Pirates beat Bad Boys yesterday!!!!

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/



Redcon1

 

[Peter Pirate]

Well, two weeks has finally gone by and 'POC' has moved back up to number one (Tuesdays numbers). After 2 weeks, 'Pirates' stands at just shy of 144M.

Things look very good indeed for this film and has been bandied about the best may be yet to come with international box, DVD sales & merchandising. Not to mention the unexpected uptick reported at the Parks for the ride...

Good show all the way around.

 

[airlarry!]

Awbum D-R...

As you are well aware, predictions are like opinions which are like...well you know the rest of the quote.

Just like the Warplaintiggers must temper their enthusiasm just because they are winning right before the 'Earthquake' happened, so must the members of this board temper their criticism when one of our own misses on a prediction.

Heck, as you know I like to run little contests on box office predictions for Disney's animated features, and man, are the guesses wildly different!

Which is more important? AV's prediction that the movie would score big early, and then fade fast (just as almost all of the big summer movies have done this year---I even hear commentators on the radio talking about the Big Opening Syndrome, so it must be entering the pop vernacular)? Or AV's prediction that Cou$in Mikey's obsession with becoming Media Tycoon and his open wallet for anything with special effects (but his squeaky tightness for all things in the parks) is a big problem for a mid-player like Disney is in Hollywood?

Heck, I'm as surprised as you seem to be that AV got this one wrong. (Just as I'm sure Tubby was surprised that 'cigar games' are a mite insulting to rabid Tigah fans.) I was, 'cause he's almost always right. But it was a prediction, a guess, a hunch. His takes on the DIRECTION of Disney's business are more important.

p.s. You know I'm just Terrying you with the AU references. One of my fondest memories is a great weekend spent in B'ham, and on the Plains, for an LSU-AU game three or four years ago. Great stadium, great fans. Heck, way back when, we hosted some fraternity brothers from AU for the 'earthquake' game. I still have the t-shirt to prove it.

Besides, now we can both rag on the Little 10/11 and the Big 2 conferences.

Sorry, AV. Pac-10 football went out when the band won the game.

 

[Another Voice]

Where oh where to start…

"Some folks get upset at the low-budget releases, claiming poor quality and a watering-down of the Disney name."

Being "low budget" and "poor quality" are two different things. Disney's greatest financial success have come from their moderate budget, "quality" movies. More pure profit is being made from Signs and The Rookie and Lilo and The Princess Diaries than will ever be made from Bad Company, The Recruit, Pirates and all their other $100+ million movies.

Even better for the business is that with low budgets you can make more movies. That improves your chances of getting a big hit.


"I don't understand how Pirates' profit is going to be "marginal"."

Because Hollywood is set up to funnel money to individuals, not to companies. Look at history – a lot of people have gotten rich out here but how many major corporations can turn a profit? Everyone from French sewer owners to dial-up providers, soda companies to video game makers have lost a bundle.

And look at Disney's financial reports. Look at how much money they make from the studio. It's a rounding error compared to the other business units.


"Er, he is one of the five major players in Hollywood."

Not even close. Disney is truly the forgotten step child of the Mega Media Giants (too bloated with debt and failing businesses to even hint at joining the Vivendi game). And Eisner is so disliked around town that he has interns write scripts because no one is bringing their big projects to him. Jerry didn't make Pirates because he was in love with the script – it's because Eisner is willing to pay everything he has to keep the last "name" producer in town on the lot one day a week.


"Which one will yield the most in merchandising? Which one will yield the most in DVD sales? Which one will generate a mini fan club ready to buy in to the continuing saga."

You mean all those eager mini fans clubs that propelled Matrix, X-Men and 2 Fast 2 Furious to their stunning box office success? Or the big fan clubs and conventions that caused Star Trek: Nemisis to soar into the upper reaches of financial success?

Or you mean the thousands of 'Pirates' t-shirts in the malls? The 'Pirates' breakfast cereral in the supermarket? Or the sudden fashion craze for gold teeth that's causing all the problems on high school campuses these days?

Yup, you just can't escape 'Pirates' merchandise at the moment, can you.


"Pirates is like a mini soap - it can go on and on."

Nope – when Matrix Revolutions tanks this November the era of the sequel will officially be over. You can already hear people taking about, about how sequels are going back to how they used to work – making only half of what the original movie made.

Or to quote:
Confronting Sequel-Itis
Several top film executives have conceded that they may have miscalculated by betting too heavily on sequels for their summer releases. Amy Pascal, chairman of Sony/Columbia, told today's (Monday) Los Angeles Times: "You can't rely on formula. ... You have to look at what's working and what's working is stuff that's fresh." Added Nina Jacobson, production president of Walt Disney Studios: "Certainly a lesson to be learned is: Don't make sequels that cost twice as much as the originals. ... You're basically betting double or nothing that twice as many people want to go see your movie." Similarly Revolution Studios chief Joe Roth observed, "It's a fallacy to think that just because you had a big hit movie, that your audience is going to grow" with a sequel.


"where does our resident insider predict that Disney will finish in the final 2003 total box office receipt order?"

Fourth. Depends if someone can squeeze out another $80+ weekend this summer and if the more adult aimed movies catch. It also depends if Disney can hold on to Miramax for the rest of the year.

And by the way – for the "everyone is rushing to the movies" crowd:

Box Office Slump Not Over, Say Analysts
Despite the solid performance of the movie box office last weekend, the industry is facing a 3 percent slump in revenue for the year, with the number of tickets sold down 4.5 percent for the summer and 7 percent for the year, according to Exhibitor Relations. "It's going to take many weeks of boffo box office just to break even or make money," Exhibitor Relations chief Paul Dergarabedian told USA Today. "I'm not ready to write this year off yet. But we need a consistently strong effort, not just one or two good weekends, to get us out of this deficit.".

P.S. As for being wrong - let's see what this weekend brings.

 

[rwodonnell]

Originally posted by Another Voice
Where oh where to start…

Thank you for coming down off the mountain...

Ok, I guess I can see where you guys are coming from now with the "mid-budget" movies. That argument makes sense to me. I had heard a lot of disgusted banter about the low-budget movies (mostly Jungle Book 2 and Piglet) earlier this year, and now I am hearing a lot of "why did you spend so much?" Kind of reminded me of when George Steinbrenner told the Yanks GM to sign Brien Taylor (lefty phenom in the late 80s) "whatever it takes" and then, when he heard the contract details, said basically, "what are you nuts? The kid hasn't proved anything!"

But I digress. The mid-budget movie argument does make sense.

"I don't understand how Pirates' profit is going to be "marginal"."

Because Hollywood is set up to funnel money to individuals, not to companies. Look at history – a lot of people have gotten rich out here but how many major corporations can turn a profit? Everyone from French sewer owners to dial-up providers, soda companies to video game makers have lost a bundle.

Ok, I am a thick-headed engineer. In my world, companies that don't make money go out of business. (Except for some late 90s companies that were able to continue to get investors to open their wallets, but that didn't last too long.) I don't understand how major corporations who can't "turn a profit" stay in business.

 

[Planogirl]

Or you mean the thousands of 'Pirates' t-shirts in the malls? The 'Pirates' breakfast cereral in the supermarket? Or the sudden fashion craze for gold teeth that's causing all the problems on high school campuses these days?

I've been wondering why there is no Pirates merchandise available anywhere. Where are the books? The action figures? The anything? I even thought that the Disney Store might have SOMETHING. And why isn't McDonald's doing something besides mentioning the movie in one of their ads? It all seems odd.

OT, I just saw where Burger King is offering Sinbad toys. Poor guys.

 

[crusader]

You mean all those eager mini fans clubs that propelled Matrix, X-Men and 2 Fast 2 Furious to their stunning box office success?

Don't discount a following. They've helped many an actor and many a series of films. Matrix and X-Men both had successful sequels with strong opening weekends greatly assisted by their fans. The Pirates sequel will have an excellent opening as well - and will prove successful a second time around provided the movie is good. 2 Fast 2 Furious is not even in the same ballpark here. Nice try.

Not everything can be produced again and I agree with the
"Sequel-itis" statements. I've said before that I think certain projects are greenlighted because they have a borderline chance of breaking even and are mainly designed to keep the industry fluid. But to say that Disney should shy away from major films because the public responds well to sleepers or mid-range productions is much too conservative in approach.

Why keep this company in a category which doesn't produce blockbusters? I disagree with this. Our culture loves the big screen pics and will always pay to see them provided they are good. We also patronize the good quality independent and mid-range films as well because movies happen to be a significant part of the entertainment budget.

I see absolutely no reason to reserve all the greats for WB or the like and keep Disney imprisoned in a sappy family film environment.

Or you mean the thousands of 'Pirates' t-shirts in the malls? The 'Pirates' breakfast cereral in the supermarket? Or the sudden fashion craze for gold teeth that's causing all the problems on high school campuses these days?

Comeon! I'm talking about what Planogirl already mentioned - the TOYS!!!! Where's the pirate ships??? Where's the pirate garb??? Where's the pirate headgear????? Where's the Johnny Depp action figure????? Although I like that gold teeth comment- very nice indeed!!!!

This isn't an Atlantis problem here. There's a market ripe for merchandising.

 

[d-r]

Robin- You can have one, too. Just get a monorail or train, and then get a new attraction or something every time you go, and pretty soon you'll have to keep your disney world in your attic, too, because it is the only place it will fit - it is really easy to get started.

Larry - wonder what the siesmograph would have said that night Jamie Howard threw all those interceptions over and over and over! One of my best friends was from LSU and is now back in Baton Rouge teaching there. There are more stories about AU-LSU than anything; the earthquake, the hurricane, the barn burning, etc. I think it is one of the best SEC rivalries; AU's traditional rivalries of UT and UF are hurt by the conference split, and Ga Tech hardly ever schedules us anymore, so the LSU rivalry is really coming on. Maybe y'all don't play uga enough to understand the point about always crowing when your right but never showing up when you are wrong - of course people are going to be wrong all the time in games like these, so it shouldn't be like pulling teeth for somebody to admit it once.

AV - you don't see happy meal toys, disney store plush, commericals on the disney channel, play sets at wal-mart, etc., because Disney is not "marketing the hell out of it to kids as usual" as some people have complained. Darned if you do, darned if you don't.

HB2K - Lizzy McGuire, Holes, Spy Kids, Freaky Friday. It seems like there are a lot of the modest budget films to accompany one high budget ones. Maybe they should just make fewer movies altogether. But I don't think the occasional big budget movie is a bad idea for Disney (see 20kluts, sfr), as it keeps them from being pidgeon holed as the crappy kiddy movie company that they were known as in the 70's. Right?

 

[Peter Pirate]

'POC' remains #1 with another 5+M day (M, T & W) at nearly 149M; Bad Boys continues to watch the bottom fall out.

'Nemo' is back up to #4 at 307M and is certainly showing no signs of going away. What was the domestic totals for LK & Shrek?

If 'Sinbad' were a Disney film we'd be raking it over the coals...Only 397,105 on Wed for a whopping total of 24,541. With a 90M price tag, this is a huge flop!

 

[FriendsOfEeyore]

Ok... Another day, Another $5M. When will this madness end. This movie according to AV and H2BK is a flop, and cannot make money. Ok... Another day, Another #1. Still dropping by 26-28% from previous week's #s. If this keeps up, we are going to have to call this movie a non-successful $215M movie. Boy, Disney must be upset with these results.

 

[d-r]

let's see what this weekend brings.

POTC had its stiffest competition yet on this, its third weekend; Lara Croft opened to draw the adventure crowd, spy kids to draw the kids, sea biscuit to draw the adult crowd.

According to Boxofficemojo.com

The weekend estimate for POTC is $22,375,000, a 34.3% drop, and narrrowly ahead of last weekend's number 1 bad boys 2, which dropped 53% in its second weekend. League of ext. gentlemen, which opened the same weekend as POTC, is now at 4.8 million.

POTC is number 2, behind spy kids 3 at 32.5 million, and ahead of debuting Lara Croft at 21.7 and seabiscuit at 21.5. The top five all pulled in over 20 million, then it drops off sharply. They are all bunched closely. Finding Nemo took a really hard knock from spy kids, with the biggest % drop since it opened, a 50% drop to 3.9.

So...maybe if we just wait one more weekend, huh?

Here is the top 10 for reference, sorry about the formatting-
1 N Spy Kids 3D: Game Over Dim. $32,500,000 - 3,344 - $9,718 $32,500,000 $38 / - 1
2 2 Pirates of the Caribbean Dis. $22,375,000 -34.3% 3,416 +57 $6,550 $176,077,000 $140 / $40 3
3 1 Bad Boys II Sony $22,000,000 -52.7% 3,202 +16 $6,870 $88,452,000 $130 / $40 2
4 N Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life Par. $21,760,000 - 3,222 - $6,753 $21,760,000 - / - 1
5 N Seabiscuit Uni. $21,521,000 - 1,989 - $10,820 $21,521,000 $87 / - 1
6 4 Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines WB $5,040,000 -46% 2,660 -744 $1,894 $137,430,000 $200 / $40 4
7 3 The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen Fox $4,858,000 -52.2% 2,532 -470 $1,918 $52,716,000 $78 / $30 3
8 5 Johnny English Uni. $4,274,000 -53.2% 2,236 - $1,911 $18,383,000 $35 / $20 2
9 6 Finding Nemo Dis. $3,955,000 -45.6% 2,025 -455 $1,953 $312,683 $90 / $40 9
10 7 Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde MGM $2,650,000 -56.7% 2,120 -1,085 $1,250 $82,115,000 $45 / $30 4

 

[Planogirl]

I posted a scaled down version of this list on the other thread too. I think that the results for Tomb Raider (expected more) and LXG (expected less) are surprising. It seems like the four that are almost tied are splitting most of the moviegoers while Spykids is attracting the kids. Now, if Pirates truly has legs most of the three others which are tied should theoretically start falling behind. Which ones? Seabiscuit looks real strong so far.

 

[crusader]

Planogirl you're looking at it from a different perspective. If Pirates didn't have legs it would not have sustained itself for two solid weeks given the competition.

We need not look any further. This was already substantiated last weekend. (Now - to drum up some mainstream press on the repeat viewership issue)

Thanks for the updates.