Placeholder Discount Increased to 30% Off Select Sailings

[Sleepyluke]

Disney has increased supply of ships. Of course prices must fall as they need to find more passengers to fill them.

You are funny. You said Disney and prices fall.....

 

[jwalk03]

Right, it's been a massive expansion already for DCL by adding the Wish and Treasure (and Adventure and Destiny also taking booking $$s away from the rest of the fleet even though they're not running yet).

I haven't yet seen signs from other cruise lines that they are dealing with waning demand. I think some of these issues are DCL-specific while they scale out their fleet as much as they have.

Yes they have dramatically increased the size of the fleet while also doubling (or more) the price. The current prices are just not sustainable IMO. All that extra inventory will drive prices down- particularly at slower times of year and on less popular itineraries and ships.

I do think as more additional ships come online they will have to get even more creative with new home ports and destination choices. You can only fill so many 3 & 4 day Bahamas cruises 365 days a year!

 

[Sleepyluke]

Flight prices certainly have not come down at all! Higher than they have ever been- yet planes are flying full! So people are certainly still traveling!!

At least around here that is because there are fewer flights to the same places as 2-3 years ago. We are cutting even from the post covid schedules.

 

[peder]

Yes they have dramatically increased the size of the fleet while also doubling (or more) the price.

I wasn't sure how much prices had gone up so I didn't mention it, but obviously it's a huge factor for them also.

I also don't think Galveston is going to be a winner for them. If I look at Carnival Jubilee vs Carnival Mardi Gras pricing out of Galveston, Galveston is a bit cheaper on average. Same thing with a comparison of the MSC Seascape out of Galveston compared to their Miami cruises. It's just not as a high of a margin home port as Florida.

I'm not 100% persuaded that Disney needs to lower prices. I agree that their current supply-demand charts would suggest they now have a capacity glut and therefore need to take pricing action to maximize profitability. However, that's with their current market segments. There's still room to try and bring over cruises from other lines like Celebrity. A recent DCL ad I saw showed more of the refined elements of DCL like the spa and fine dining. It looked more like a Celebrity advertisement than a traditional DCL advert (meanwhile NCL's ads with one of the dads from Modern Family is going in a completely different direction focused on "fun"). This repositioning within the cruise industry will take some time, and it's a bit untested (we really don't know how many cruisers from more premium lines or even luxury lines are interested or ever will be interested in DCL). If DCL is successful, they won't need to play with pricing much.

 

[jwalk03]

I wasn't sure how much prices had gone up so I didn't mention it, but obviously it's a huge factor for them also.

I also don't think Galveston is going to be a winner for them. If I look at Carnival Jubilee vs Carnival Mardi Gras pricing out of Galveston, Galveston is a bit cheaper on average. Same thing with a comparison of the MSC Seascape out of Galveston compared to their Miami cruises. It's just not as a high of a margin home port as Florida.

I'm not 100% persuaded that Disney needs to lower prices. I agree that their current supply-demand charts would suggest they now have a capacity glut and therefore need to take pricing action to maximize profitability. However, that's with their current market segments. There's still room to try and bring over cruises from other lines like Celebrity. A recent DCL ad I saw showed more of the refined elements of DCL like the spa and fine dining. It looked more like a Celebrity advertisement than a traditional DCL advert (meanwhile NCL's ads with one of the dads from Modern Family is going in a completely different direction focused on "fun"). This repositioning within the cruise industry will take some time, and it's a bit untested (we really don't know how many cruisers from more premium lines or even luxury lines are interested or ever will be interested in DCL). If DCL is successful, they won't need to play with pricing much.

That surprises me about Galveston. When I was following other line prices more closely a few years ago; Galveston was consistently higher priced than equivalent Florida based inventory because Florida always had so many more options it kept prices lower.

I guess Galveston supply has increased quite a bit since then.

I think Galveston can be a winner for Disney if they do 2 things:
- send a larger newer ship there
- offer more diverse itineraries

But in general they have to develop more home ports beyond Florida with so many more ships. Southern California getting a year round ship, Galveston getting a year round ship, etc.

Maybe a seasonal return to New York.

Personally I would love to see a more robust set of sailings from San Juan. Starting cruises that far south just opens up so many more port choices.

 

[peder]

That surprises me about Galveston. When I was following other line prices more closely a few years ago; Galveston was consistently higher priced than equivalent Florida based inventory because Florida always had so many more options it kept prices lower.

As with all things, it probably depends. MSC is new to the market there, so they might be pricing the Seascape a bit lower as a way to get their name out to Texas. Also MSC typically has a lot of Europeans flying in for any of their US-based cruises, and from what I understand, Houston is not an "easy" city for Europeans to reach. Not in the same way that New York is, for instance, and MSC had already been prioritizing New York because Miami was even that much more difficult for Europeans to reach.

And with Carnival, they run multiple ships out of Galveston, and their newer ships are quite large relative to the rest of Carnival's fleet. They might just be hitting more price-sensitive customers now and they can't command pricing like they can out of Florida.

But also, itineraries out of Galveston are generally pretty unimpressive. DCL won't stop at either of their private islands, so unless they want to create their own private "island" like Royal is doing at Costa Maya, then DCL won't have a competitive advantage in terms of itineraries to offer to cruisers out Galveston.

Really in general, I don't know how the Galveston market makes much sense for the industry unless they can increase the variety of ports. Maybe Veracruz or some other port in that area can be developed, and maybe Cuba is in play eventually. But otherwise, that market is going to be heavily saturated with cruisers that get bored with the same 3 stops.

 

[jwalk03]

As with all things, it probably depends. MSC is new to the market there, so they might be pricing the Seascape a bit lower as a way to get their name out to Texas. Also MSC typically has a lot of Europeans flying in for any of their US-based cruises, and from what I understand, Houston is not an "easy" city for Europeans to reach. Not in the same way that New York is, for instance, and MSC had already been prioritizing New York because Miami was even that much more difficult for Europeans to reach.

And with Carnival, they run multiple ships out of Galveston, and their newer ships are quite large relative to the rest of Carnival's fleet. They might just be hitting more price-sensitive customers now and they can't command pricing like they can out of Florida.

But also, itineraries out of Galveston are generally pretty unimpressive. DCL won't stop at either of their private islands, so unless they want to create their own private "island" like Royal is doing at Costa Maya, then DCL won't have a competitive advantage in terms of itineraries to offer to cruisers out Galveston.

Really in general, I don't know how the Galveston market makes much sense for the industry unless they can increase the variety of ports. Maybe Veracruz or some other port in that area can be developed, and maybe Cuba is in play eventually. But otherwise, that market is going to be heavily saturated with cruisers that get bored with the same 3 stops.

Disney certainly can go to their private islands from Galveston- it just has to be a 7-day cruise not a 3/4 day cruise. That is one of the reasons they need to offer more variety with the year round ship.

Galveston makes sense for the huge population that is within driving distance. Not having to fly is a huge cost savings for an average family.

And honestly there is a large segment of cruisers (particularly Disney but others as well) that couldn’t care less what ports are on the itinerary- they see the ship as the destination. That’s why a newer bigger ship is necessary for success in Galveston. (And I think that’s why we see so many of the ships being deployed to Galveston are just that- newer, larger ships with lots of bells and whistles to compete.)

 

[Mommb]

Personally I would love to see a more robust set of sailings from San Juan. Starting cruises that far south just opens up so many more port choices.

Galveston makes sense for the huge population that is within driving distance. Not having to fly is a huge cost savings for an average family.

And honestly there is a large segment of cruisers (particularly Disney but others as well) that couldn’t care less what ports are on the itinerary- they see the ship as the destination. That’s why a newer bigger ship is necessary for success in Galveston. (And I think that’s why we see so many of the ships being deployed to Galveston are just that- newer, larger ships with lots of bells and whistles to compete.)

These are both real but contradictory concerns.

The original "target audience" for Disney cruises is families with preschool or school-age kids. These customers often prefer to drive rather than fly, both to save money and to reduce the stress of dealing with kids at airports and on planes. Driving to Galveston is quicker for people in many parts of the country than driving to Florida, so porting a ship in Galveston makes sense.

San Juan, on the other hand, is accessible only by plane for people not in Puerto Rico, and requires a change of planes for a large chunk of travelers. This makes it less appealing to people traveling with children, as it is more expensive, more time-consuming, and more stressful than flying or driving to Florida or Texas for almost everyone.

The Caribbean ports don't have a lot that interests kids, other than beaches, and Disney's private islands have beaches that are easier to access and more family-friendly. So yes, a large segment of customers won't care much about the ports and will care about the ship. I agree that the newer ships have more to do onboard.

For people without young children, and particularly with no children, it's a different situation. San Juan and the ports it can open up are appealing to adults who are tired of the choices on most Eastern and Western Caribbean cruises and don't mind as much taking a long flight. The question is how many of these people will choose Disney over another less expensive cruise line. My thinking when I read on these boards of people choosing between Disney and Virgin Voyages or Viking is that these people are not Disney's target audience and Disney is unlikely to make changes just to appeal to them.

Personally, I would love it if DCL cruised from and to more interesting ports. In the last 8 years, I've done 4 European cruises and just 1 Caribbean cruise on DCL because most of the Caribbean ports just don't interest me. I am doing a Southern Caribbean cruise this fall because those ports will be new to me. But I know that I'm not who Disney is targeting. I typically buy 1 shirt per cruise, I buy very few specialty beverages, and I don't take many Disney excursions. I am hoping that as Disney introduces more new ships, the older ships are sent to more exotic locations, but I don't know if that will happen.

 

[jwalk03]

These are both real but contradictory concerns.

The original "target audience" for Disney cruises is families with preschool or school-age kids. These customers often prefer to drive rather than fly, both to save money and to reduce the stress of dealing with kids at airports and on planes. Driving to Galveston is quicker for people in many parts of the country than driving to Florida, so porting a ship in Galveston makes sense.

San Juan, on the other hand, is accessible only by plane for people not in Puerto Rico, and requires a change of planes for a large chunk of travelers. This makes it less appealing to people traveling with children, as it is more expensive, more time-consuming, and more stressful than flying or driving to Florida or Texas for almost everyone.

The Caribbean ports don't have a lot that interests kids, other than beaches, and Disney's private islands have beaches that are easier to access and more family-friendly. So yes, a large segment of customers won't care much about the ports and will care about the ship. I agree that the newer ships have more to do onboard.

For people without young children, and particularly with no children, it's a different situation. San Juan and the ports it can open up are appealing to adults who are tired of the choices on most Eastern and Western Caribbean cruises and don't mind as much taking a long flight. The question is how many of these people will choose Disney over another less expensive cruise line. My thinking when I read on these boards of people choosing between Disney and Virgin Voyages or Viking is that these people are not Disney's target audience and Disney is unlikely to make changes just to appeal to them.

Personally, I would love it if DCL cruised from and to more interesting ports. In the last 8 years, I've done 4 European cruises and just 1 Caribbean cruise on DCL because most of the Caribbean ports just don't interest me. I am doing a Southern Caribbean cruise this fall because those ports will be new to me. But I know that I'm not who Disney is targeting. I typically buy 1 shirt per cruise, I buy very few specialty beverages, and I don't take many Disney excursions. I am hoping that as Disney introduces more new ships, the older ships are sent to more exotic locations, but I don't know if that will happen.

They make sense together because they each appeal to different audiences. With MORE ships you have to appeal to MORE customers not less, and you do that with more variety. I am sure Disney would never send a ship to San Juan year round by any means- but the Magic or the Wonder for 2-3 months or something would be feasible. But its only feasible if you have larger/newer ships filling the demands in the more bread and butter ports like FL/TX/CA, etc

They already offer some limited cruises from San Juan- I would just to see them offered a bit more. The Magic is offering like a month's worth of San Juan cruises later this year actually.

 

[brentm77]

Yes, we booked that in February 2009. it even included a 200$ gift card. Just pulled out the old confirmation: 9 nights at Poly, 7 day park hoppers for two people, 200$ gift card: 2972 $.

That's around $4,500 in today's dollars. What would that actually cost to book now? 10K +? That has been the hardest thing about wanting to vacation as much with Disney - they have far outpaced inflation while constantly decreasing the quality of the product. It's not a good long-term plan, and frankly, I won't mind if they have a good kick in the pants to get them back on track.

 

[brentm77]

As with all things, it probably depends. MSC is new to the market there, so they might be pricing the Seascape a bit lower as a way to get their name out to Texas. Also MSC typically has a lot of Europeans flying in for any of their US-based cruises, and from what I understand, Houston is not an "easy" city for Europeans to reach. Not in the same way that New York is, for instance, and MSC had already been prioritizing New York because Miami was even that much more difficult for Europeans to reach.

And with Carnival, they run multiple ships out of Galveston, and their newer ships are quite large relative to the rest of Carnival's fleet. They might just be hitting more price-sensitive customers now and they can't command pricing like they can out of Florida.

But also, itineraries out of Galveston are generally pretty unimpressive. DCL won't stop at either of their private islands, so unless they want to create their own private "island" like Royal is doing at Costa Maya, then DCL won't have a competitive advantage in terms of itineraries to offer to cruisers out Galveston.

Really in general, I don't know how the Galveston market makes much sense for the industry unless they can increase the variety of ports. Maybe Veracruz or some other port in that area can be developed, and maybe Cuba is in play eventually. But otherwise, that market is going to be heavily saturated with cruisers that get bored with the same 3 stops.

Disney must really be banking on the millions of locals to make extended Galveston porting work, because let's be frank, there isn't anything exciting to draw people there for pre-cruise activities like Florida, California, NYC, etc., plus you get mediocre itineraries. I can't imagine there are many people eager to fly there and then cruise from there. I know I wouldn't even consider it over other U.S. ports unless it was steeply discounted and I just wanted to enjoy the ship. Am I remembering wrong that they used to be some of the cheaper cruises when they sailed out of there more often?

I sure wish Disney would take some bigger swings with some limited sailings. I know I would book NYC to Bermuda on opening day if they put that out there, for example.

 

[jwalk03]

Disney must really be banking on the millions of locals to make extended Galveston porting work, because let's be frank, there isn't anything exciting to draw people there for pre-cruise activities like Florida, California, NYC, etc., plus you get mediocre itineraries. I can't imagine there are many people eager to fly there and then cruise from there. I know I wouldn't even consider it over other U.S. ports unless it was steeply discounted and I just wanted to enjoy the ship. Am I remembering wrong that they used to be some of the cheaper cruises when they sailed out of there more often?

I sure wish Disney would take some bigger swings with some limited sailings. I know I would book NYC to Bermuda on opening day if they put that out there, for example.

That’s exactly what they are banking on- that’s the whole point.

Galveston has 36 million people within a 5-hour drive.

I actually just flew there for spring break for the Magic repositioning cruise to San Juan. We flew in 3 days early and visited NASA and Galveston Island- so yes there are attractions for a pre-cruise stay if you want. (Plenty of other things we could have done in Houston as well.)

But we chose this particular cruise because it lined up almost perfectly with our spring break (the kids had to miss 1 extra day of school) and because it visited both Disney private islands.

For the right ship and itinerary we would fly there again and cruise- but flying to Florida is certainly easier for us so that is always more likely.

But those driving in is certainly more of the target.

 

[brentm77]

That’s exactly what they are banking on- that’s the whole point.

Galveston has 36 million people within a 5-hour drive.

I actually just flew there for spring break for the Magic repositioning cruise to San Juan. We flew in 3 days early and visited NASA and Galveston Island- so yes there are attractions for a pre-cruise stay if you want. (Plenty of other things we could have done in Houston as well.)

But we chose this particular cruise because it lined up almost perfectly with our spring break (the kids had to miss 1 extra day of school) and because it visited both Disney private islands.

For the right ship and itinerary we would fly there again and cruise- but flying to Florida is certainly easier for us so that is always more likely.

But those driving in is certainly more of the target.

That is a big market! But I just don't remember those being particularly popular cruises when they were there more frequently. Maybe my memory is faulty (wouldn't be the first time), but it seems like they had to discount them a lot. It will be interesting to watch. I personally would fly to San Diego to cruise DCL somewhat frequently if they had more frequent options there. But, like I said, I wouldn't even look at Galveston as an option absent a big discount, because I would rather pick and option that either has a) better pre-cruising things to do; b) a better itinerary than what they can offer from that port; or c) both. Hopefully the local market is as receptive as they are expecting.

Yes, I know there are a few things to do in the area, as I have spent my fair share of time in Houston and even in Galveston, but none of it has the same draw or depth of things to do as the coasts. I don't mean to put the area down, but that's just the truth. It's not exactly a tourist destination, absent some fantastic food. I'm sure it's a great place to live though.

 

[peder]

I've also done the fly-into-Houston-for-a-Galveston-cruise thing and it's ok. Easily our least favorite embarkation port but traffic wasn't terrible and it's pretty well managed.

 

[asgur5]

You are funny. You said Disney and prices fall.....

Its not by choice. And they are doing it through hidden tricks like discounts rather than directly lowering the price like they should.

 

[jwalk03]

I've also done the fly-into-Houston-for-a-Galveston-cruise thing and it's ok. Easily our least favorite embarkation port but traffic wasn't terrible and it's pretty well managed.

It’s really not any more difficult to get to than Port Canaveral- if you fly into Hobby at least. Flying into Bush makes it further than MCO to Pt. Canaveral.

 

[Mommb]

Its not by choice. And they are doing it through hidden tricks like discounts rather than directly lowering the price like they should.

How is a discount a hidden trick? Disney sets a cruise at a price. Some people book a room on the cruise at that price. If some cabins have not yet been purchased by some date, Disney offers a lower price in order to fill the ship. We don't know what Disney's expectations have been for profit and for number of cabins sold. For some time after the pandemic pause, it appears that Disney deliberately kept cabins open in case they were needed for quarantine. That's probably no longer a concern, but Disney could still be setting prices so that they don't need to fill the ship to make a profit.

In most cases, getting a lower price requires paying in full immediately and taking whatever cabin Disney assigns, which are conditions under which many of the earlier purchasers would not have made their purchase.

When Disney offers a discount prior to the Paid-in-Full date that is not a restricted fare, people who have previously booked can usually apply the discount to their reservation, or simply make a new reservation with no negative effects. (I did this a few years ago when a "half price for 3rd and 4th passengers" offer for Disney+ subscribers came out.) If the discount is offered after the Paid-in-Full date, people who have waited until that time to book will lose out on the opportunity to book excursions and activities as soon as they are available.

 

[DCLMP]

You are funny. You said Disney and prices fall.....

They raise the prices so they can offer discounts and everyone thinks prices are falling.

 

[DCLMP]

Right, it's been a massive expansion already for DCL by adding the Wish and Treasure (and Adventure and Destiny also taking booking $$s away from the rest of the fleet even though they're not running yet).

I haven't yet seen signs from other cruise lines that they are dealing with waning demand. I think some of these issues are DCL-specific while they scale out their fleet as much as they have.

Maybe Disney got ahead of their skis thinking everyone would pay the exorbitant price tag for the new ships.

The Wish also hasn't gotten the greatest reviews on trip advisor or cruise critic.

 

[Cfabar1]

I do not think the current pricing disparity is possible....

When we first started sailing DCL if you were flexible with your pricing, you could find ways you could justify paying DCL prices i.e. that ship out of south Florida costs as much as the competitor in a jr. suite out of PC..

Sometimes with VGT rates, it was actually cheaper to do DCL than RCCL or others... I remember this well...

Now we are seeing the opposite - looking at some March itineraries, we were seeing 9 nights on RCL/Celebrity being cheaper than say a 4-5 night on Disney... In one instance, the pricing for a long cruise on RCL was comparable to a 3 night trip on DCL...

I'm not a fan of RCL, but I also am not deluded enough to think DCL is 3x better...

Cruising is for us a luxury, and we don't mind opening the wallet a little more for something objectively better, but some of DCL prices are getting to me, truly outrageous...

and the discounts are making me think I am not alone in that assessment...

and they are growing the fleet at the same time... Don't see how that won't put downward pressure on prices...

I personally think adding parks capacity would have been the smarter play than going to 13 ships - DCL is such a niche product, and the new ships are even more niche in my view... The Magic (especially in the original Eisner/Chao iteration) was a luxury cruise liner with a healthy sprinkle of Disney magic. The new boats are DISNEY with a capital D - I just don't think the appeal is as wide. If the new small boats go that way, I think it will be a big mistake...