Pear Harbor is no bomb

[Captain Crook]

Well, initial critical comment on the movie seem to be giving way to better and surprising reviews as pointed out by AV on another thread (and throughout media reports). Further, another thread and numerous TV reports indicate overwhelming customer satisfaction with the movie and it appears to be headed for one of the biggest openings ever...Can you say Blockbuster?

I have read other reports that have Disney movie industry rivals "scratching their head" in wonder and amazement regarding the breadth and potential of this movie.

So...Was this another case of Disney bashers (thery're everywhere) seeking to exterminate the Mouse or will the success be attributed to a well oiled Disney PR blitz? Or is the movie just that good?

On a related note, will these events change what we will see prior to the release of Atlantis? And are the initial negative responses surrounding this film accurate or part of another Disney smear?

 

[MikeS]

I think we are looking at not a bomb but a stinker. The best PH might do is 80+million way under JP2 the lost world and a little above The Mummy Returns both of those were follow up movies.Disney will never recoup it's money back. Believe me heads will roll over this.

 

[Disnsyncey]

I'm totally lost......are you saying that its gonna bomb at the box office??

All I gotta say is, I think it will do great......the critic in the Jax paper actually liked it (just to say that at least 1 critic liked it haha) and the last time I have found it hard to find a seat in a movie where I live was Aladdin, and that was when we had a smaller movie theater......On friday when I went to see it (we had to get there 30 minutes earlier to get a good seat), there wasn't an empty chair, and when I saw it today at the matinee, it was the most people I have ever seen in a matinee in my life.....and when I came out of the matinee, there were at least 60 people waiting to go in for the 7:15 show......
Later!
Kat

 

[Testtrack321]

I went.
I saw.
I LOVED!

Despite all the bad things this movie has gotten, it is one of the best movies ever! The line to get into the movie was out the door (that was 40 min. prior to the 3:05 showing!) The movie was excelent! THIS WAS AWSME! The begining was great a little slow, but it made up for it in the fighting sceans. The fighting sceans were sprinkled around here and there, finaly ending with Pearl Harbor. But it isn't the END! There is at least an hour and thirty min. left in the movie! The Pearl Harbor scean was long and amazing! The person who played FDR was great. They showed a lot of him and his whole "a day that will live in infimay" speech.

As for the Pearl bashers, they won't give up till they find that there beloved Shrek falls like a rock in earnings! Plus the only reason why it is getting a lot of money is that it is the only PG movie out there till June 15, and you know what is comming out then!

Anyone who dosen't like this movie is un-patriotic and illerterit in history. THIS IS THE BEST AND MOST HYPETED MOVIE THIS SUMMER! JP3 HASN'T GOT THIS MUCH ADVERTISTING!!!!!! inkbounc inkbounc inkbounc inkbounc

 

[MikeS]

I'm not sying it's a bomb I'm saying it is not what the Disney Machine Hyped it up to be and the numbers proved it. 75.1 million in 4 days. Under the 80 I predicted. The Mummy did 72.2 in 3 days so you can see it failed to do what Disney said and hoped it would. Only 18% of the audience was under 25 and the 17-25 bracket make up 70% of the movie going public. They were not turned on by the young cast and didn't care about the historic aspect. It will be a tough sell in weeks to come.
As for Shrek, 54 million in the second week. AWESOME this one will be around all summer long which doesn't do Disney's Atlantis any good.
I am not bashing Pearl as a film it was OK but Far under what Disney played it up to be and the numbers proved it. The Mummy which is a blah film with little hype still made 19 million in week 4 and 150 Million so far. Weird as it sounds it could be the film of the summer.
I am not unamerican as one poster said just because I did not like the film. The meaning was good the delivery was bad.

 

[JimB.]

I saw a guy on the "Today" show this morning (whom, unfortunately I cannot remember his name, but he was some "in the know" type of movie industry analyst), and he said that, based on the Memorial Weekend numbers, that PH will easily break $200 million + domestically, and could go over $300 million overseas.

Real Bomb.

In the tank.

Fire 'em all!!

The bottom line........ if you like it, you like it. If you don't, you don't.

Personally, I thought "Shrek" was an insipid, moronic bore that spent most of it's time on bathroom humor.

But hey, I'm just one opinion, as are we all............

 

[Andy123]

MikeS,
You might want to check your stats on the age group demographics... according to a story on the MSNBC website... more than HALF of all those who saw the film were in the 17-25 age bracket... And many polls of younger girls leaving the theater said thay would go back and see it again and again... comparing it with Titanic, which if you remember opened "poorly", only to go on to gross over $600mm. It might not get up that high, but it will make money, and as a Disney shareholder I'm encouraged by this!!!

 

[Disnsyncey]

I was just wondering how many people here are shareholders....I am!! haha but not like a huge amount =)
Later!
Kat

 

[DVC-Landbaron]

It might not get up that high, but it will make money, and as a Disney shareholder I'm encouraged by this!!!

And I'm not! I too am a shareholder. But I would be very willing to trade in my short term profits (i.e. PH turning a profit) for a long term gain (i.e. Ei$ner's ouster!!). One can only hope.

 

[MikeS]

Andy
My figures were from an independant source The box office Guru. His tracking has been right on for the 2 years I have followed him. I tend to stay away from large news sources(CNN, MSNBC ABC CBSetc) since they have many ties to many studios and slant things some as not to offend anyone. In fact most cable sources have major ties to Time Warner and therefor are biased.
Here are the stats from Disney:
53% of audience was male 63% of those males were over 25. Teens made up only 19% of the audience. 87% rated the film good or very good.
That blows out what MSNBC said about young crowd. Only 19 % were young and most were older males.
Now the tale of the tape. The take.
18.9 million Friday 20.8 Saturday (10% gain)
20.3 Sunday (2% slip) and 15.1 Monday.
Unlike Shrek whose numbers went up from weekend 1 to 2 Pearl is losing money. Up the first day then down everyday there after. Now Monday was the end of the holiday and sales should drop alittle but not Sunday. Sunday should have been higher.
Now dispite Pearls big press release Shrek had almost a big a weekend the second weekend and it did the first.
And sadly to say The Mummy Returns after 4 weeks out was still untouched by Pearls debut pullin in 19 Million. Now some films don't pull 19 million the first week much less week 4.
My prediction is Pearl will lose more and more business week after week. It peaked already and will wind up with about 175 Million or less at the end of the domestic run.
It may play good in Europe but won't do well in Japan for obvious reasons.
It's not a total bomb but far from what Disney hyped it up to be and it is far from Titantic which ended up with 600 million. If it makes 170 Million it still will not recoup what it cost( with the film plus all the promotion) The point being you have to watch what it costs to make a film and bigger does not always mean success. The Mummy Returns only cost 94 Millionto make and promote and made 168M so far. That's a hit. Sadly the film is not THAT good.
Pearl is average and expensive and that combo equals financial trouble.

 

[JeffH]

The biggest opening of any Disney film.
One of the biggest openings ever (#2) of any new film, except for the highly anticipated, hyped to the hilt, Phantom Menace, despite the fact that it was a 3 hour film.
The biggest opening ever (by far!) of any non-sequel film ever.
The biggest opening ever (by far!) of any "long" film.

Right, this is a failure.
Right, this is a bomb.
WRONG!

Jeff's spin...
Let's see, Shrek, had a significant increase in its second week. It is therefore assumed that it is just doing sooo good. Well this doesn't normally happen to a film, especially to this much of an increase.
Did we ever stop to think that perhaps, that was the film that everyone went to see (newest film, already saw Mummy 2 weeks ago...) when they found Pearl Harbor SOLD OUT!?!?!?!?
Now hopefully those who went to the movies hoping to see Pearl Harbor and had to instead see Shrek, come back to see Pearl Harbor next week, and don't pay attention to the rediculous critics and PE bashers.

 

[Figment78]

Being a big movie "buff", I couldn't wait to see this movie. I was planning on going to see it Friday night, but after all the horrible things I heard, I put it off. Not for long however, I went to see it Sunday night. I thought it was very good!! It didn't feel to me like I was sitting in the theater for 3 hours. Many of the reviews said it was too much of a love story and not enought action, well there was a good hour of action, more than Titanic, which got great reviews from everyone. I say go see it!!!

 

[MikeS]

Jeff
You are partially right but most theatres had Pearl on many screens as many as 5. if you wanted to see it, you could. I saw in in a Disney theater The AMC at downtown and had no trouble getting a ticket on Friday at 7Pm. Shrek was doing just as well. One thing that Shrek had going for it was word of mouth most people who saw it told others to see it. That will be Pearls fate.If you remember back to Jurassic Park 2 it did not get good word of mouth and sales fell of quickly despite the biggest opening weekend ever.
A lot of people went the first weekend because The Disney machine conditioned them to go. Pearl was everywhere.Every talkshow every newscast every 5 minutes on commercials. Now the the opening numbers are in Disney won't promote the film as much and it will survive on it's word of mouth. Believe me 75.1 million,although the highest Disney ever scored is not that big for a holiday weekend. The Mummy Returns scored 72.5 million on a non holiday 3 day weekend. Pearl had the advantage of a holiday weekend and a extra day and only did a few (3) million more. It it was on more screens than Mummy was. And while all the Numbers sound impressive Like Mission Impossible 2 and Jp2 remember their ticket prices were $1.50 less than Pearls. Jp was released in mid 90's to do 90+ million at $5.75 is more impressive than 70 Million at $6.50 or even $7.50 in NY. A lot more tickets would have to be sold at the lower price than the higher.
Believe me there are a lot of Disney execs checking want ads this week. Already finger pointing is starting . I've seen the producers (Not Jerry B.) blaming Michael Bay the Director. That would NOT happen if everyone felt it was a Hit.
Is it a bad film, no it's not. Is it the best Pearl harbor film and a monument to history...NO Is it the one you had to see this last weekend... No . Will it fade in the next few weeks..... My opinion is yes. With highly commercial films like Tomb Raider, Planet Of the Apes, Fr. Doolittle 2 and Jurassic Park 3 Pearl should be wrapped up by the 3rd week in June.
I am not bashing Pearl here I'm just going by the Numbers. If you look at my last post it fell 5 million from day 3 to Monday day 4. That is a bad sign. If it does not do 45+ million this week it's a goner. The theaters will cut the number of screens it plays on to make way for other films and then the profits go down etc. (example: after Shreks opening weekend theatres actually ordered more prints of the film and added more screenings. They knew this film would make THEM money. It paid off. They can also do the opposite and drop screens if a film is not pulling.) This upcoming weekend will tell the tale for Pearl. With a full week anything less than 45 million is fatal.

 

[ladyntramplover]

Okay, need to get my two cents in on this one. I was really looking forward to seeing this movie. I love great epic films ("Saving Private Ryan," "Schindler's List," even the "Patriot" last year). So when my fiance suggested we go, I was very excited.

I sat down with my big bucket of popcorn and my large Pepsi, and I prepared to be mesmerized. All I got was an upset stomach. I don't think I learned anything from this movie (God, please help the thousands of school children who might see this and really think everything in this movie was true). All I learned was that Ben Affleck does a REALLY good job at playing Ben Affleck with a southern accent (someone else said this on another board, and I thought it was true!). The love story is too mushy, and it isn't even believable. If I had to hear Mr. Affleck say to the girl "You're so pretty, you're so beautiful," I think I was going to hurl. I didn't care for any of these characters, and I think to have a really good movie, the audience needs to feel for the characters. I was beginning to cheer for the Japanese when they came in, because I thought maybe Ben Affleck, Kate Beckinsale and that other guy who played Danny might die. I know that is sort of harsh, but man, their acting was lame. (I am in community theater all the time, and I've seen my share of bad acting, but this takes the cake!!!)

As for Testtrack321, I felt personally offended when you said that I would be unpatriotic if I didn't like the movie. Let's just say if the movie took out the love story and the actors that did such a horrible job, I would have loved the movie!!!


lady

 

[YoHo]

Ladyntramplover

Most of the Pearl Harbor footage was true although the 2 main characters were fictional.

2 Fighter Pilots DID manage to get off the ground and harrass the Japanese.
Cuba Gooding Jr.'s Character did shoot down those planes (posthumously, awarded the Iron Cross He died later in the war)
Doolittle did make that raid over Tokyo, although I don't think the two pilots from pearl were amoung them.
A Japanese Pilot DID wave off Children motioning them to flee for there Saftey.


Yes, the movie takes a few Dramatic Licenses. But, It is acurate in terms of the battle itself.

 

[ladyntramplover]

Okay, maybe you're right. The actual bombing sequence is pretty accurate to a certain degree. I guess it really is up to the schools and the parents to teach children what is real and what is not. I just don't want people running around saying that there really were two characters like Affleck and the other guy. (Sorry, but I got my share of that right after "Titanic" when my students really believed that Rose and Jack actually existed. I tried to tell them that there COULD have been stories like that, but the actual people of Rose and Jack were made up.)

lady

 

[JeffJewell]

I got my share of that right after "Titanic"

You might already know this, but the business plan for Pearl Harbor was borrowed directly from the hugely successful Titanic campaign.

Ben Affleck was to serve as Leo DiCaprio, in the sense of bringing the teenage girls to multiple showings (which he might, it's still too early to make a call on the number of repeat customers), Faith Hill does the Celine Dion thing, the combo love story/special effects sequence creating a "perfect" date night movie.

The major difference is that the cost (and therefore risk) of Titanic was split between studios. Disney alone fronted the hundreds of millions for Pearl Harbor, with the intention of not having to split the Titanic-like profits with anyone. Unfortunately, that also means Disney alone will bear the brunt of any revenue shortfall.

Jeff

 

[MikeS]

Well week two is telling the tale. Pearl Harbor dropped 49% to take 30 million over the weekend. That is a death knoll. Heck, on its third week Shrek took in 28.4 million and next week will overtake Pearl and be #1. Mark my words Pearl is not going anywhere. The public did not buy Disney's hype. I predict the best it will do is 175-185 Million. Not enough to earn back it's costs.
Shrek on the other hand became a big hit.On Monday it will be the fastest animated film to hit 150 Million in just 17days.
It takes more than a millions of dollars of promotion to turn a film into a hit. It takes a good story and believable characters . The public didn't but Pearl and it's hype. It's a OK film but not a epic it was played up to be. The proof is in the numbers.

 

[JeffH]

The wartime drama, which stars Ben Affleck and Kate Beckinsale, lost 49 percent of its audience from the equivalent three days of the Memorial Day holiday last weekend. While the fall seems steep, it was actually less than the 53 percent drops for previous Memorial Day holiday openers "The Lost World: Jurassic Park" (1997) and "Mission: Impossible 2" (2000).

So, Jurassic Park and MI2 were also bombs?

So the truth be told, Pearl Harbor is doing better than TLW:JR and MI2 did.

 

[MikeS]

Jeff
To answer your question Yes they were. Jurassic Park 2 The lost world only grossed 229.1 million far from what it's namesake Jurassic Park 1 made 357.1 Million. A film like the Lost World was a shoe in to be a hit but guess what.. The public came out in droves the first weekend then found out it wasn't that good and POW! they didn't go back. This film had the potential of making $400 Million but it was a stinker and the public knew it.
Same was true of Mission 2. It only made 215.1 million. Mrs Doubtfire made 219 Milllion on its run with far less hype. Jaws made 260 million. Home Alone 285 million. These films DID NOT have publicity blitzes behind them. They were released, were loved by audiences, and made tons of money. Disney was trying to sell a B+_ picture as this years Titantic, a film of historical greatness, and the public said NO Way. It's a B+ picture with a Million $$$ campaign behind it and is fading quickly. It is Disney's answer to Jurassic Park Lost World.
It will be out of number 1 spot by next week and I say will be history by the end of the month. The sad thing is it will be beat out most like ly by Shrek in it's forth week or by Evolution in week 1 .
You have to remember that while my prediction of about $180 million seems like a lot of money Pearl cost $140.M to make and almost another $70 million to promote. That means it has to break $210 million just to pay the bills. The best I heard it can do is $200 Million so Disney we have a problem. I can see layoffs coming.
With Shrek doing so good and possibly #1 next week that puts a black cloud on Atlantis on June 15th. Disney had hoped Shrek would vanish by then but with the film in the #1 or 2 spot Atlantis seems in trouble especially since it opens against Tomb Raider.
The Disney machine has 1 hope for summer, Scary Movie 2 on July 4th. The only other film Disney has is a film called the Princess Diaries onAug 3 but with Planet of the Apes and Jurassic Park 3 still in theatres I don't think it will fare well.