Pandemic?

[dumboiu]

------------

No - I don't believe I need to "rethink" my comments - because as every day individuals (not the professionals who willing be dealing with these things) what benefits can be derived from worrying about "coulds" that we can't control? Even if we change it to "will" - again, as every day individuals what would be the benefit of sitting here conjuring up the "worst case scenario"?

We need to deal with today - and what we can do today - in a calm and rational manner.. Discussing "worst case scenarios" will only result in further panic and hysteria.. To me, that is counterproductive.. We have scientists to deal with the "coulds" and "wills".. Let them do their jobs while we do ours..

I am not going to argue with you, C.Ann. This topic of Tamiflu and viral mutation isn't about worrying.....it is about being prudent. If people start taking Tamiflu for no reason, the virus will become resistant via mutation. Fact, pure and simple.

 

[dumboiu]

Shouldn't they be able to make a vaccine for our next flu season that contains this new strain? I realize it will have mutated by then, but wouldn't there be at least partial coverage?

That is the hope.

 

[jakoky]

worth a read!!!


http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090429/WHO_panic_090429/20090429?hub=Health

 

[Tinijocaro]

Link not working

 

[C.Ann]

I am not going to argue with you, C.Ann. This topic of Tamiflu and viral mutation isn't about worrying.....it is about being prudent. If people start taking Tamiflu for no reason, the virus will become resistant via mutation. Fact, pure and simple.

----------------

I don't want to argue either - - but I think you need to go back and re-read my posts.. At no time did I say that people should be taking Tamiflu for no reason.. I said the exact opposite..

 

[C.Ann]

-------------------

People are so focused on waiting for a vaccine that "might" protect them, they are forgetting that if they are unfortunate enough to come down with this disease they can be treated with medication that is currently available and in all likelihood will recover..

--------------

I agree - one should only take it if they have been exposed - but people are acting as though there is no current medication available to deal with this flu should they be exposed or actually come down with the virus - and that is what has them so distraught..

Here you go.. Could you point out where I said that people should be taking Tamiflu "for no reason"?? I'm seeing "if they are unfortunate enough to come down with this disease" - and "one should only take it if they have been exposed or have actually come down with the virus".. I believe this is what the doctors are reccomending as well.. I have no idea where people are obtaining it "just to have on hand" or to take "just in case" - nor have I said that they should.. Maybe you just read my posts too fast..

I am not going to argue with you, C.Ann. This topic of Tamiflu and viral mutation isn't about worrying.....it is about being prudent. If people start taking Tamiflu for no reason, the virus will become resistant via mutation. Fact, pure and simple.

 

[dumboiu]

----------------

I don't want to argue either - - but I think you need to go back and re-read my posts.. At no time did I say that people should be taking Tamiflu for no reason.. I said the exact opposite..

I never thought that you said people should be taking Tamiflu. In fact, this discussion has never been about you. It has been about potential resistance (via mutation) to a drug that.....right now, today, this moment, gives us some way of treating the influenza virus which the WHO has just raised to a Level 5 alert.

It seems to me that you are only looking at this moment in time, period. Is it not prudent to look ahead to prepare for the future? Why do you deem doing so as "conjuring up worst case scenarios"? Education is power. Putting your head in the sand is not.

But, having said that, I do agree that one should not panic......just be informed.

 

[dumboiu]

Here you go.. Could you point out where I said that people should be taking Tamiflu "for no reason"?? I'm seeing "if they are unfortunate enough to come down with this disease" - and "one should only take it if they have been exposed or have actually come down with the virus".. I believe this is what the doctors are reccomending as well.. I have no idea where people are obtaining it "just to have on hand" or to take "just in case" - nor have I said that they should.. Maybe you just read my posts too fast..

see above post.

 

[Tinijocaro]

I never thought that you said people should be taking Tamiflu. In fact, this discussion has never been about you. It has been about potential resistance (via mutation) to a drug that.....right now, today, this moment, gives us some way of treating the influenza virus which the WHO has just raised to a Level 5 alert.

It seems to me that you are only looking at this moment in time, period. Is it not prudent to look ahead to prepare for the future? Why do you deem doing so as "conjuring up worst case scenarios"? Education is power. Putting your head in the sand is not.

But, having said that, I do agree that one should not panic......just be informed.

I totally agree with you.

 

[C.Ann]

.

It seems to me that you are only looking at this moment in time, period. Is it not prudent to look ahead to prepare for the future? Why do you deem doing so as "conjuring up worst case scenarios"? Education is power. Putting your head in the sand is not.

But, having said that, I do agree that one should not panic......just be informed.

-------------

Hmm.. I don't believe I am "putting my head in the sand".. However, I will agree that I am dealing with what is currently happening - in a calm and a rational way - which is preferable to being in panic mode..

Yes - it is certainly prudent to "look ahead" and "prepare for the future" - but since most of us here are not scientists - the people who will actually have to "do the work" so to speak - what is it that "we" can or should be doing now? If you can give me some examples of something I (we) can actually do - other than worry about what's coming down the pike - I'm more than willing to listen..

This is a sincere request for information.. Seriously.. "Knowing" about mutations falls into the category of "having knowledge" - a good thing - providing that information with no suggestions as to what people should do with it, not so much.. Leaves the door wide open for more worry; more panic; and more hysteria..

So - what do "we" (every day citizens) do with this "knowledge"??

I'm all ears..

 

[mommy*RN]

My DH just came off a shift at the ER where he works as a RN. I guess they triaged over 160 people complaining of possible swine flu infection. This is a small community hospital so 160 patients is crazy for them. In Milwaukee they've closed 4 schools due to suspect cases. This is in an area that has a high population of Hispanic patients and apparently a lot of them visited family in Mexico over spring break. We will have confirmed cases soon.

I asked him if the docs were writing scripts for Tamiflu and he said he didn't know. Since as of 8am this morning WI had no confirmed cases of swine flu, I'm really hoping these people aren't being sent home with the drug unless a rapid flu test is showing a positive result.

If I'm not mistaken, isn't Tamiflu an anti-replicating drug?? So why would people who are not currently infected with influenza be taking it and what would the benefit be? I'm not trying to start anything, just curious. I work with a very "at risk" population since I work with newborns (postpartum unit) and I don't think I would take the medication unless I tested positive for any type of the flu. It's my understanding that because the swine flu is a mixture, a rapid flu test would come up positive and they are sending samples to the CDC for reporting purposes -- they can prove or disprove if it is swine flu.

I heard on our local news tonight that there is currently a vaccine in the making, but it probably won't be available until next fall (WTMJ Channel 4). They also reported that our state (WI) will not be sending tests to Atlanta or wherever. Apparently Children's Hospital of WI has a test that checks for a multitude of influenza types and the swine flu is one of them...so now our tests will go there and hopefully take some of the pressure of the main testing facility (I believe the CDC in Atlanta).

 

[Tinijocaro]

The next few days will be very telling-seems like this whole thing is gonna blow.

 

[Tinijocaro]

This is simply a discussion about the possible impending pandemic. It's not meant to serve as a "what to do" thread. We are discussing all the possibilities, not panicking ain any way.

I'm guessing that discussing the ugly side of pandemic is worrying you. Maybe this is not the thread for you? I saw another thread where the whole idea of a pandemic is being joked about and mocked-maybe you would be more comfortable on that one?

-------------

Hmm.. I don't believe I am "putting my head in the sand".. However, I will agree that I am dealing with what is currently happening - in a calm and a rational way - which is preferable to being in panic mode..

Yes - it is certainly prudent to "look ahead" and "prepare for the future" - but since most of us here are not scientists - the people who will actually have to "do the work" so to speak - what is it that "we" can or should be doing now? If you can give me some examples of something I (we) can actually do - other than worry about what's coming down the pike - I'm more than willing to listen..

This is a sincere request for information.. Seriously.. "Knowing" about mutations falls into the category of "having knowledge" - a good thing - providing that information with no suggestions as to what people should do with it, not so much.. Leaves the door wide open for more worry; more panic; and more hysteria..

So - what do "we" (every day citizens) do with this "knowledge"??

I'm all ears..

 

[praline3001]

I heard on our local news tonight that there is currently a vaccine in the making, but it probably won't be available until next fall (WTMJ Channel 4). They also reported that our state (WI) will not be sending tests to Atlanta or wherever. Apparently Children's Hospital of WI has a test that checks for a multitude of influenza types and the swine flu is one of them...so now our tests will go there and hopefully take some of the pressure of the main testing facility (I believe the CDC in Atlanta).

There is a big problem with this and I think everyone needs to be aware of this. Wonder WHY there are only 91 confirmed cases?
The ONLY cases that the CDC can confirm are the ones collected and tested in their labs in Atlanta. If states decide to do their own testing, the cases are never confirmed. This is what is going on in Orlando currently. They can say no confirmed cases in Fl. all they want to as they never sent the samples to the CDC. They could have a 1,000 cases of it but until the state sends the sample ~ no confirmed cases so they are swine flu free.

I am in NO way blaming the CDC for this policy. It is a GOOD policy to ensure the same lab tests and get accurate results. BUT politicians are using this loop hole to their advantage. I think the leaders need to explain how the testing works a bit more. By the time a case is actually confirmed on the CDC, the person has already recovered.

Take that case of the 23 month old in Texas. He was hospitalized on April 13. We never heard anything about him being tested or the CDC confirming he had it.

This flu has been in our country since AT least April 13, not since this past weekend which media is making us think.

It is something to be concerned about. Just this morning Orlando news is reporting 18 high school kids are sick in SC after going to Disney. They are closing the school.
http://www.wftv.com/news/19328563/detail.html


This flu has spread a heck of a lot more than they are letting on. Here is a link to a real time map. This map sights sources of local media reports of swine flu in their areas ~ either confirmed or suspected. I am NOT saying all of the suspected cases are swine flu BUT remember some states are not even sending in samples to the CDC so they may never be confirmed.
http://maps.google.co.uk/maps/ms?hl=en&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=109496610648025582911.0004686892fbefe515012&ll=26.115986,-9.140625&spn=144.408712,283.007813&t=p&z=2

 

[OK!]

Local news this morning is reporting that a student at Loyola in Chicago is a "probable" swine flu victim who's now recovering at home in Ellisville, MO, which is about 5 miles away from me, and is the town over from my parents. He's under what they're calling "personal quarantine," meaning that he's on his honor not to leave the house.

 

[dumboiu]

-------------

Hmm.. I don't believe I am "putting my head in the sand".. However, I will agree that I am dealing with what is currently happening - in a calm and a rational way - which is preferable to being in panic mode..

Yes - it is certainly prudent to "look ahead" and "prepare for the future" - but since most of us here are not scientists - the people who will actually have to "do the work" so to speak - what is it that "we" can or should be doing now? If you can give me some examples of something I (we) can actually do - other than worry about what's coming down the pike - I'm more than willing to listen..

This is a sincere request for information.. Seriously.. "Knowing" about mutations falls into the category of "having knowledge" - a good thing - providing that information with no suggestions as to what people should do with it, not so much.. Leaves the door wide open for more worry; more panic; and more hysteria..

So - what do "we" (every day citizens) do with this "knowledge"??

I'm all ears..

Examples of what you can do:
- frequent handwashing and follow good hygiene practices (cough and sneeze into your elbow as an example)
- call your doctor if you have any flu symptoms
- stay out of very crowded areas if at all possible
- stay informed
- don't panic
- understand that the "people doing the work" are still trying to figure things out from a genetic standpoint. It appears that this virus is different than anything most of us have been exposed to and therefore why it it has been elevated to phase 5 by the WHO (our immune systems are naive to this particular virus, it seems).

I disagree that knowing that a virus mutates is cause for alarm. It is simply what it does. A virus does not want to kill its host (that's you and me), it can only live using our body to manufacture its DNA or RNA. It can not do it on its own. Having said that, often times when a virus jumps species (pigs to humans, birds to humans, etc) it does just that (becomes more virulent). That appears to be what is happening now, however no one will be sure for quite a while what the impact of this particular influenza will be. The good news is that science has come a long way since 1918 and many good and smart people are working this problem 24/7.

This is simply a discussion about the possible impending pandemic. It's not meant to serve as a "what to do" thread. We are discussing all the possibilities, not panicking ain any way.

I'm guessing that discussing the ugly side of pandemic is worrying you. Maybe this is not the thread for you? I saw another thread where the whole idea of a pandemic is being joked about and mocked-maybe you would be more comfortable on that one?

I think you hit the nail on the head here!

 

[LuvOrlando]

-

 

[dumboiu]

I was thinking about this too. They can only CONFIRM what they see. BUT why isn't the CDC demanding the samples be sent to them as well. I mean, how hard could it be to take 2 swabs instead of one or recover residual matter from the State's tests???

The whole idea is just so amateur.

I am going to hazard a guess that the CDC is quite over-worked right now and therefore it would take them too long to analyze every single sample.

 

[praline3001]

I was thinking about this too. They can only CONFIRM what they see. BUT why isn't the CDC demanding the samples be sent to them as well. I mean, how hard could it be to take 2 swabs instead of one or recover residual matter from the State's tests???

The whole idea is just so amateur.

POLITICS AS USUAL!
The states don't want their state to be known as a swine flu state. Use FL as an example ~ how many people are going to cancel trips to FL if the CDC comes back and says there are 80 confirmed cases in Fl? Their tourism would go down the drain. The same for my city of New Orleans. We have Jazz fest going on this weekend and it brings in a lot of $$ for the tourism industry. If the CDC actually confirms cases ~ the festival is out the window.

The tracking of this flu is faulty.

Say you go to a Doc and your sick with a fever. He will do the quicky in office screening. If it comes back with the flu its up to that Doc to send in the samples to the CDC.. as of now. BUT states have their own state labs they want the samples to go to. SOOO the Doc sends his positive flu sample to the state lab, they test it and decided if there is enough genetic material to send to the CDC... and they CAN sit on the samples for a few weeks before deciding.
Then the CDC gets the sample, runs their own test and has their own investigation and after ALL of that is done ~ they confirm the case. This has a 48 hour incubation period so the CDC is WAY behind on it official tracking (the stuff they show us)
NOW its 100% sure the CDC findings so what they do it GOOD but politics are using it to their advantage so please be careful.

Example is Mexico ~ CDC has confirmed 23 cases there. The health officials are saying its more like 2,500 cases with 160 deaths? They have more deaths recorded for this flu than lab confirmed cases.

The same thing is going on here in the states. I am not sure of the exact ratios but the lab confirmed cases are a very small % of people who actually have this flu.

All I can say is I am glad this is just the flu and not the plague the way our leaders are handling it!!!

 

[raven69david]

You'd cancel a trip to WDW rather than fly out of a Rio Grande Valley Airport? Although I certainly hope they're taking health precautions with cleanliness, etc., we haven't thought of cancelling our trip on Saturday.

The only reason we're flying out of MFE is because we got the airfare at $29.00 each way. The rates at HRL are no different than the rates in San Antonio. If we weren't taking my parents, who live in Falfurrias, then we would have flown directly from SAT.

What precautions will you take when boarding the plane? Will you be using masks? Any advice from anyone on this issue? I want to be as safe as possible and protect DD4 as best I can.

DD4 is ready for the trip and is excited about it. I don't want to disappoint her, but when it comes to her health I'd cancel it in a heartbeat if it means keeping her safe from this virus. At this time we are still on for the trip and I hope things play themselves out. My decision to fly will be made when we arrive at MFE and take a look at that airports situation.