Pandemic?

[Maroon]

This is all quite interesting but I think that it's WAY too early to panic or even react unless you're right there where it's all happening.

 

[LuvOrlando]

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[nd5056]

That's not good. If it's being transferred from human-to-human, that tourist came in contact with alot of people at WDW, especially since it was spring break.

This shouldn't be taken lightly. We're closer to phase 6 then ever before.

Official: US flu victims may be infecting others
By ANDREW O. SELSKY, Associated Press Writer Andrew O. Selsky, Associated Press Writer 37 mins ago

MEXICO CITY – The swine flu epidemic crossed new borders Tuesday with the first cases confirmed in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region, as world health officials said they suspect American patients may have transmitted the virus to others in the U.S.

Most people confirmed with the new swine flu were infected in Mexico, where the number of deaths blamed on the virus has surpassed 150.

But confirmation that people have been infecting others in locations outside Mexico would indicate that the disease was spreading beyond travelers returning from Mexico, World Health Organization spokesman Gregory Hartl told reporters on Tuesday in Geneva.

Hartl said the source of some infections in the United States, Canada and Britain was unclear.

The swine flu has already spread to at least six countries besides Mexico, prompting WHO to raise its alert level on Monday but not call for travel bans or border closings. On Tuesday, countries, including Canada, Israel and France, warned their citizens to avoid nonessential travel to Mexico.

"Border controls do not work. Travel restrictions do not work," Hartl said, recalling the 2003 SARS epidemic that killed 774 people, mostly in Asia, and slowed the global economy. "There was much more economic disruption caused by these measures than there was public health benefit."

Hartl said WHO is advising countries to provide sick people with treatments such as Tamiflu, and make sure national plans are in place to ease the impact of a larger outbreak.

"Governments will need to start thinking about larger-scale care for a specific disease in accident and emergency wards," he said. "Do they have the infrastructure? Do they have the equipment? Do they have the medicines? This is the time, now, to prepare."

WHO raised the alert level to Phase 4, meaning there is sustained human-to-human transmission causing outbreaks in at least one country. WHO's pandemic alert system was revised after bird flu in Asia began to spread in 2004. Monday was the first time it has ever been raised above Phase 3.

Flu deaths are nothing new in the United States or elsewhere. The Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that about 36,000 people died of flu-related causes each year, on average, during the 1990s in the United States.

But the new flu strain is a combination of pig, bird and human viruses that humans may have no natural immunity to.

Tuesday, Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard ordered gyms, sports clubs, swimming pools and pool halls closed — extending a growing shutdown that already included schools, state-run theaters and other public places.

The city was evaluating whether to keep open a subway system that provides 5 million trips a day.

New Zealand reported Tuesday that 11 people who recently returned from Mexico contracted the virus. Tests conducted at a WHO laboratory in Australia had confirmed three cases of swine flu among 11 members of the group who were showing symptoms, New Zealand Health Minister Tony Ryall said.

Officials decided that was evidence enough to assume the whole group was infected, he said.

Israel's Health Ministry confirmed Tuesday the region's first swine flu case in the city of Netanya. The patient, 26, recently returned from Mexico and had contracted it. A hospital official said the patient had recovered, but will remain hospitalized until the health ministry approves his release.

A hospital in the central town of Kfar Saba said a 47-year-old man who returned from Mexico two days ago and checked himself in when he felt ill had the strain and was being kept in isolation. He was expected to recover.

Meanwhile, a second case was confirmed Tuesday in Spain, Health Minister Trinidad Jimenez said, a day after the country reported its first case. The 23-year-old student, one of 26 patients under observation, was not in serious condition, Jimenez said.

With the virus spreading, the U.S. stepped up checks of people entering the country and warned Americans to avoid nonessential travel to Mexico.

"We anticipate that there will be confirmed cases in more states as we go through the coming days," Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said on NBC's "Today" show on Tuesday.

The Food and Drug Administration late Monday issued emergency guidance that allows certain antiviral drugs to be used in a broader range of the population in case mass dosing is needed to deal with an outbreak.

Mexico, where the number of deaths believed caused by swine flu rose by 50 percent on Monday to 152, is suspected to be the center of the outbreak. But Mexican Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova late Monday said no one knows where the outbreak began, and implied it may have started in the U.S.

"I think it is very risky to say, or want to say, what the point of origin or dissemination of it is, given that there had already been cases reported in southern California and Texas," Cordova told a press conference.

Mexico City Health Secretary Armando Ahued said three people died in the capital Monday, but it was unclear if they were included in the national toll. He said 6,610 people went to city hospitals Monday with flu symptoms, but only 29 were remained hospitalized.

Dr. Nancy Cox of the CDC has said she believes the earliest onset of swine flu in the U.S. was on March 28. Cordova said a sample taken from a 4-year-old boy in Mexico's Veracruz state in early April tested positive for swine flu. However, it is not known when the boy, who later recovered, became infected.

A decision by WHO to put an alert at Phases 4 or 5 signals that the virus is becoming increasingly adept at spreading among humans. Phase 6 is for a full-blown pandemic, characterized by outbreaks in at least two regions of the world.

Fifty cases — none fatal and most of them mild — were confirmed in the United States. Including the New Zealand, Israeli and new Spanish reports, there were 92 confirmed cases worldwide on Tuesday. That included six in Canada, one in Spain and two in Scotland.

Amid the alarm, there was a spot of good news. The number of new cases reported by Mexico's largest government hospitals has been declining the past three days, Cordova said, from 141 on Saturday to 119 on Sunday and 110 Monday.

Symptoms include a fever of more than 100, coughing, joint aches, severe headache and, in some cases, vomiting and diarrhea. Many victims have been in their 30s and 40s — not the very old or young who typically succumb to the flu.

So far, no deaths from the new virus have been reported outside Mexico.

It could take four to six months before the first batch of vaccines are available, WHO said. Some antiflu drugs do work once someone is sick.

The best way to keep the disease from spreading, the CDC's acting director, Richard Besser, said, is by taking everyday precautions such as frequent handwashing, covering up coughs and sneezes, and staying away from work or school if not feeling well.

Russia, Hong Kong and Taiwan said they would quarantine visitors showing symptoms of the virus.

World stock markets fell Tuesday as investors worried that any swine flu pandemic could derail a global economic recovery. In the U.S., stocks fell moderately in early trading as investors worried that a growth in swine flu cases could hurt industries such as travel and tourism.

 

[raysnkaysmom]

Thanks for posting this!! I guess we all kind of figured it would show up in Florida. Lots of people from all over the World visit there and many of us are reluctant to cancel our vacations if we are feeling a bit under the weather...or we don't start feeling ill until we are already there. This where I just remind people to keep washing those hands, don't touch your face and cover those coughs and sneezes...it just can't be said enough!!

I haven't followed the swineflu at all, really only knew about it because of this thread.
But...now, we are going to WDW in 4 weeks with my daughter who will only be 7 weeks at the time...and right now, my son is sick with a fever. The dr yesterday said she doesn't see what the fever is coming from (they did bloodwork, urine test etc) so I'm assuming they would have known if it was this... but as of now, his fever is 'unknown'...but all he does is lay around

I'm not concerned about WDW right now with that one guy, because, unless it was airborn, it wouldnt matter where we were anyways.. But, I think I may be following it a bit more closely now...

 

[JimFitz]

I haven't followed the swineflu at all, really only knew about it because of this thread.
But...now, we are going to WDW in 4 weeks with my daughter who will only be 7 weeks at the time...and right now, my son is sick with a fever. The dr yesterday said she doesn't see what the fever is coming from (they did bloodwork, urine test etc) so I'm assuming they would have known if it was this... but as of now, his fever is 'unknown'...but all he does is lay around

I'm not concerned about WDW right now with that one guy, because, unless it was airborn, it wouldnt matter where we were anyways.. But, I think I may be following it a bit more closely now...

How old is your son and has he had Roseola?

 

[Colleen27]

Why were they letting anyone in from Mexico 2 days ago? DW is definitely "non-essential", so in my opinion, they shouldn't be allowing anyone in until this we have a better grasp on this thing. Everyone is so hung up on being "PC" we're not even protecting our own citizens.

We're not closing the borders because it is ineffective, not because we're being "PC". Unless you do it before a single person has brought it back to the US *and* you make it an absolute closure (no one can come in from Mexico, not even American citizens returning home, and no one can enter the country from other countries that are still allowing arrivals from Mexico), the virus will spread.

Do you think we should also be preventing folks from NYC, San Diego, and other areas that have had confirmed cases from traveling within the US?

 

[raysnkaysmom]

How old is your son and has he had Roseola?

Roseola? Isnt that a sort of rash?
He's 14 months... and the dr just told me yesterday he has exzema as well (although he's had that for over a month and it's unrelated)

 

[dalt01]

Roseola? Isnt that a sort of rash?
He's 14 months... and the dr just told me yesterday he has exzema as well (although he's had that for over a month and it's unrelated)

thats rosacea.

 

[dalt01]

roseola is a child viral infection.

 

[FergieTCat]

Why were they letting anyone in from Mexico 2 days ago? DW is definitely "non-essential", so in my opinion, they shouldn't be allowing anyone in until this we have a better grasp on this thing. Everyone is so hung up on being "PC" we're not even protecting our own citizens.

Now ALL those travelers from all over the country were exposed and now will go home to spread it to everyone else. From one person. Unreal.

The government had to have known something about this before this past weekend. In the cases in New York City, they think one student went to Mexico for vacation. Why didn't they issue warnings, especially since the past 2 or 3 weeks were Spring Break weeks?

As I said, I'm concerned because the NYC cases are about 5 miles down the road from me. And I ride the subway through Queens every day. I've been washing my hands whenever I leave the subway. I don't care if I'm being paranoid or not.

 

[raysnkaysmom]

roseola is a child viral infection.

I just read about it.....so, I guess when this fever breaks I'll look for an immediate rash...
He's had the fever since Sunday....

 

["Got Disney"]

yesterday I had to take my son to the Dr. for a problem with eczema on his head....he keeps getting a bad case of dandruff. Anyway there was this lady in there talking out loud about this flu and that if we get it we will die and things like that. she was so panicky. So I spoke out loud and set her straight and also a few others. They said that they have been watching the news and that they have made them very afraid. You should have heard her

I have no more fear about this flu than I do about any other flu. I find it very interesting to see how fast this is spreading and learning about this(please dont take that the wrong way). I have taken the precautions that I take with all other flu....well maybe a little bit more only because we are still learning about this one.

Part of me wants to get this flu since at this point why it is still a mild strain. My concern is not so much this strain but a possible mutation for the upcoming fall. Any Kind of immunity to this going into the fall will be helpful. However this gives the CDC time to come up with a plan for that time. Also watching New Zealand getting this in the midst of their flu season will help the CDC better understand how this may affect us at that time.

As a Nurse I have talked with a number of my friends that are MD's and they are honestly not that concerned. The main concern they are hoping will not happen is that they are so many get ill that they are unable to treat all of them in a timely fashion.

they said today the average age getting this flu is 16.....but I thought it was like from age 25-45 or something? I will have to wait to hear that again. Maybe they meant here not Mexico.

 

[dizluvah]

I am a late joiner to this thread and do not have time to read the previous posts right now. My DH is a history buff and he sent me the following information. I thought it might be interesting to post a few links about swine flu in US history. They are an interesting read if you a few a few minutes.

http://www.twoop.com/medicine/archives/2005/10/1918_spanish_flu.html


http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2008/03/dayintech_0324

 

[robinb]

I haven't followed the swineflu at all, really only knew about it because of this thread.
But...now, we are going to WDW in 4 weeks with my daughter who will only be 7 weeks at the time...and right now, my son is sick with a fever. The dr yesterday said she doesn't see what the fever is coming from (they did bloodwork, urine test etc) so I'm assuming they would have known if it was this... but as of now, his fever is 'unknown'...but all he does is lay around

I'm not concerned about WDW right now with that one guy, because, unless it was airborn, it wouldnt matter where we were anyways.. But, I think I may be following it a bit more closely now...

The difference between being at home and being at WDW is that people are more concentrated at WDW. You come in direct and indirect contact with many more people at WDW than at home. Now, I am no germ-o-phobe by any stretch of the imagination (I don't even own a single bottle of Lysol ) but I probably wouldn't have planned a trip to WDW with a 7-week old to begin with.

Keep your eye on things. I assume that if this becomes an epidemic that WDW and your airline will work with you to rebook your vacation. I know that the airlines are allowing people to reschedule airline travel to Mexico right now and WDW has worked with people during hurricane season. I hope that things work out for you.

 

[nd5056]

We need to respod i bit better then this too:

...
St. Francis students began lining up at the nurse's office on Thursday, with aches, pains and fever. Abigail Medina-Masilang said she sat down determined to make it through an English test Thursday, when she got "really hot inside" and asked to be excused. The 17-year-old senior said a small crowd was outside the nurse's office, including one who threw up outside the door.

Health officials defended their response to the outbreak. Health Department crews didn't show up to test sick students until 3:30 on Friday, when almost everyone had gone home. That limited the number of students the department could test.

"By the time we knew there was a problem at St. Francis, anybody at the school who was going to be affected, we think already was," Bloomberg said Monday.
...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_swine_flu_states

 

[mickeyboat]

We need to respod i bit better then this too:

IIRC, they weren't lax in their response, they were stuck in traffic.

 

[pansmermaidzlagoon]

here's an interesting interview from Charlie Rose. I had mentioned Laurie Garrett earlier - she is one of those interviewed:

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10256

outlines the need to know why this hitting young people harder and why it is less virulent in US than Mexico. ives some info I had not heard elsewhere.


also, some are asking why we should be more concerned about this than any seasonal flu..because as it spreads it can mutate and become more virulent and/or no longer responsive to Tamiflu/etc....someone correct me if this is wrong!

ETA: the interview cuts ff too early - gonna see if I can find the full interview....no luck, hopefully they will fix it - it was just getting to some important points!!!!

 

[HLAuburn]

We're not closing the borders because it is ineffective, not because we're being "PC". Unless you do it before a single person has brought it back to the US *and* you make it an absolute closure (no one can come in from Mexico, not even American citizens returning home, and no one can enter the country from other countries that are still allowing arrivals from Mexico), the virus will spread.

Do you think we should also be preventing folks from NYC, San Diego, and other areas that have had confirmed cases from traveling within the US?

I don't expect that closing the borders would prevent the spread completely, but it would most definitely decrease the number of people coming to the US and spreading it, and would buy some time until we could get a grip on this flu. The more people who come to the US who have it, the faster its spread - isn't that pretty basic? Of course US citizens should be let back in, and no I don't think we should restrict travel thru the US, but the fewer people we have coming in this country from the country where it started, the fewer the number of people here exposed and the more time we have tobe prepared.

I don't buy the "ineffective" argument at all....I think that's an excuse for not hurting people's feelings. Even if a more secure border stopped one person with the flu (like the Orlando guy), it would go a long way against spreading it here.

 

[nd5056]

IIRC, they weren't lax in their response, they were stuck in traffic.

And the dog ate my homework too long time ago...

Nothing personal, we need action, not excuses. Anyone around NYC, Chicago, LA, etc. is fully aware of the traffic. I don't think anyone realized what this was about too.

“The later we get there, the less work we’ll have to do. And by Monday no one will even remember they didn’t feel good on Friday…”

.

 

[harleyquinn]

I don't expect that closing the borders would prevent the spread completely, but it would most definitely decrease the number of people coming to the US and spreading it, and would buy some time until we could get a grip on this flu. The more people who come to the US who have it, the faster its spread - isn't that pretty basic? Of course US citizens should be let back in, and no I don't think we should restrict travel thru the US, but the fewer people we have coming in this country from the country where it started, the fewer the number of people here exposed and the more time we have tobe prepared.

I don't buy the "ineffective" argument at all....I think that's an excuse for not hurting people's feelings. Even if a more secure border stopped one person with the flu (like the Orlando guy), it would go a long way against spreading it here.

It's already here, and it isn't killing anyone. It is mild. Before you decide to close the borders you need to understand the economic concequences that would have. Why in the world should we close the borders over a flu that responds to current medication, especially when it is already here!?