oversold?

[twinklebug]

I think we've also been seeing some lessened availability because of people using developer's points in the last years. For a while, AKV was offering double developers points and they're still offering developers points... and I know they are from a different pool and subject to different rules.

I think that, and the fact that there are more owners in general that account for greatly decreased availability in the more popular times of year.

DVC smartened up and now the Developers points are only available to use at SSR within DVC, they can also be used at DLR, and traded out for collection items.

 

[DebbieB]

In 9 years of DVC, the only time I could not get a reservation was when I called 3 weeks before for a mid-October Sunday night.

I think part of the problem is resorts are sold "buy here, you can stay anywhere". So people buy expecting to be able to book anywhere at 7 months. Then they try to book BWV or BCV for October at 7 months and it's not available, leaving them disillusioned.

 

[doconeill]

Actually, I was (to my amazement) able to book a 1BR at BCV at the 7-month window for F&W. I really didn't think it would happen, but it did.

Some contributing factors to the feeling of "oversold", aside from the ones already stated:

- SSR is nearly sold out if not already. That is a lot of active points in the system people are trying to use.

- AKV wasn't able to sell their entire inventory due to it being under construction until more recently. Once those points were declared, you still couldn't book those rooms. So there were more active points but no additional rooms. (I know those purchasing Kidani points couldn't use them, but they got developers points, which they could use at SSR...potentially displacing SSR owners booking late)

- More people may have traded out of the system, taking a lot of rooms out of points inventory and placing them in CRO.

- Such issues are far more pronounced at the smaller resorts like BCV and BWV, since there is a limited number of rooms and a lot of desirability because of location.

Remember, the goal of ANY system is to be as near to 100% occupied as possible, year round. Every year has less desireable times than others, but SOMEONE has to stay then.

In order to alleviate the pressure, DVC would have to keep building rooms and have points that have not been sold yet to allow some wiggle room. But that goes along with my idea that DVC needs to do so to maintain their income anyways, and will continue building rooms so long as people keep buying points up until the earliest contracts expire, and they can begin reselling the existing inventory, getting in to a "steady state".

DVC does NOT guarantee that you can use your points whenever you want, even at the 11 month window. You only have the same chance as anyone else at getting one of the available (and not all are) rooms at the 11 month window.

 

[ShkNBak911]

Disney has such a huge impact on the economic status of the state of FL....oh, im sure overselling points would never get overlooked.

 

[hurricaneb]

I was able to book in February at Wilderness Lodge during Mardi Gras 09 without a problem. However, I had reservations in November which I had to move a week later and had problems finding anything. I ended up with a 2 bedroom at OKW and waitlisted for a 1 bedroom at SSR which I got. I changed the reservation in September for the November trip.

My points have to be used by the end of November and I was told by Member SErvices that if they expired because of no availability that was just too bad. EAsy for them to say, they wont be out 220 points!!!


I think they oversold. Last year we stayed at SSR the second week of December. We had a problem getting a reservation (made the reservation almost 7 months out) and when we got to SSR they were at capacity.

Betsy

 

[jbrowna]

Disney has such a huge impact on the economic status of the state of FL....oh, im sure overselling points would never get overlooked.

Are you kidding me? Disney is the biggest target around! If the state of Florida could prove any of these allegations they could levy some huge fines. You can be sure the Orlando Sentinal would love to dish up the dirt if there was any evidence that what you say is true.

 

[ont/ohana]

After reading all this information I sure have gianed more insight into DVC than I thought I knew.
Thank you to all who know your dvcstuff- Walt would have been proud!

 

[Chuck S]

snip.... The smaller contract issue: Originally, when it was just OKW a new buyer had to purchase a large number of points (Can't remember actual number but it was well into the 200s). .....

The original OKW minimum purchase was 230 Points.

 

[BobCosta]

I bet if you call with cash in hand you can get whatever room you want @ any time.... I also think they should STOP the e-bayers. they should only be allowed to sell the points after the 7th month mark.. Or Banked points only

 

[JimMIA]

Actually, I am not a "rookie" ive been a member for almost 10 years. Maybe thats why I seem to think things have lately become difficult when in the past it hasnt been an issue.

Rookie or not, not understanding the difference between points inventory and cash inventory - as well as where cash inventory comes from - is a common area where people don't understand the system, and therefore make erroneous assumptions.

You can almost always get cash rooms, but it's because one of us already used our points for an exchange out. Often people assume they've somehow been cheated out of points inventory, when in fact, another owner has just taken advantages of one of the benefits of DVC and exchanged...giving Disney the villa to rent for cash in return.

 

[DebbieB]

I bet if you call with cash in hand you can get whatever room you want @ any time.... I also think they should STOP the e-bayers. they should only be allowed to sell the points after the 7th month mark.. Or Banked points only

You probably can, those rooms come out of the cash inventory, not DVC, so it does not affect points availability.

Regarding e-bay or renting in general, it shouldn't make a difference if I make a reservation for myself or someone else, I paid for the points and paid the dues, they should not be restricted (for the record, I've never rented).

 

[crisi]

Are you kidding me? Disney is the biggest target around! If the state of Florida could prove any of these allegations they could levy some huge fines. You can be sure the Orlando Sentinal would love to dish up the dirt if there was any evidence that what you say is true.

They also need to undergo their SEC audit each year. Something like overselling points would be difficult to hide in an audit - and DVC revenues against inventory is CERTAINLY an audit item. Since the demise of Arthur Andersen, I doubt their CPA firm would be eager to help them cover up fraud.

 

[BobCosta]

quite a hand full of explainations
Thanks!!

 

[Deb & Bill]

...However, I had reservations in November which I had to move a week later and had problems finding anything. I ended up with a 2 bedroom at OKW and waitlisted for a 1 bedroom at SSR which I got. I changed the reservation in September for the November trip.

My points have to be used by the end of November and I was told by Member SErvices that if they expired because of no availability that was just too bad. EAsy for them to say, they wont be out 220 points!!!...

That's the hazard with trying to change your reservation during an extremely busy time only two months out. And it would be too bad if you didn't get a reservation before losing your points. You could have banked them before the end of August to avoid losing them, too. Unless they were already banked.

 

[jbrowna]

I bet if you call with cash in hand you can get whatever room you want @ any time.... I also think they should STOP the e-bayers. they should only be allowed to sell the points after the 7th month mark.. Or Banked points only

You lose. Pay up. I've been trying -- with cash in hand -- to get a room for a certain day early December. No go. Nowhere on property. I've tried several times, hoping some blocks of rooms might be set loose -- and that still may happen, given that the time I want is when Pop Warner/Cheerleading is happening. But that has nothing to do with DVC being either under- or oversold. That's just my bad for trying to book at a relatively late date for a very popular time!

 

[Dean]

I bet if you call with cash in hand you can get whatever room you want @ any time.... I also think they should STOP the e-bayers. they should only be allowed to sell the points after the 7th month mark.. Or Banked points only

Stopping one from renting on ebay per se would not be possible under the rules. Nor would limiting private rentals to those after 7 months. This is an emotional response as well as a selfish one. There are many reasons people rent and DVC will not to to review each transaction that is under a different name than the owner. Lets just say though that it was possible. There are many other ways to rent including DIS and there's no way to police any given rental under such a rule unless you made changing the name a cancelation and rebooking.

 

[stitchineeyore]

we nearly always book well in advance. However, very late last month we decided to try for a reservation at BWV in late February, and didn't really expect to get one. Not only did we get a 1BR for eight consecutive nights, but I had three views to choose from when I booked.

 

[hakepb]

I do think that the Internet and great information like here, do help more owners use more of their points every year. Pre-Internet resale boards an owner would have to get lucky and find a co-worker that might be willing to rent their points, now there's a large community to use them instead of getting "thrown away" into increased availability

There's also much better computer based planning tools available to help owners use more of their points on themselves


There's also the new resort growth factor. Current owners of Kidani and BLT points might be borrowing their current 2009 points in 2008 because they'll have new resort points to use by the end of 2009.

It seemed when SSR was occupiable and selling there was always availability at SSR. When there is an occupiable selling resort, non-owners will buy points, inventory becomes available at the new resort, but the new owner may not use their points right away.

 

[Monorail Purple&Gold]

OP:

I can't speak in great volumes about this, because so far I've only NOT been able to get a ressie I wanted one time, because I had to book at 7 months out using dev. pts. Plus the ressie was for Thanksgiving, so we had to go with Plan F when booking (which was fine). Otherwise, I've gotten every ressie I've called for!

There's also the new resort growth factor. Current owners of Kidani and BLT points might be borrowing their current 2009 points in 2008 because they'll have new resort points to use by the end of 2009.

Keep in mind that Kidani points cannot be used until May '09. I sure could not use those points when I borrowed last month. May be the same for BLT.

 

[hakepb]

OP:

I can't speak in great volumes about this, because so far I've only NOT been able to get a ressie I wanted one time, because I had to book at 7 months out using dev. pts. Plus the ressie was for Thanksgiving, so we had to go with Plan F when booking (which was fine). Otherwise, I've gotten every ressie I've called for!





Keep in mind that Kidani points cannot be used until May '09. I sure could not use those points when I borrowed last month. May be the same for BLT.

I was just guessing that, say, a current OKW owner that just bought BLT or Kidani may be more likely to borrow from their 2009 or 2010 OKW points because they know they will be able to use their new Kidani points after May or new BLT points after Sept..