Over/Under Valued Right Now

Bjaiken77

Earning My Ears
Joined
Feb 19, 2021
Value is subjective, so I’m curious what your thoughts are on the most overvalued and undervalued contracts on the market right now (direct or resale). To me, value doesn’t mean the lowest price or cheapest, although it can be. It could be price per point, MFs, length of contract, DVC price vs rack rate, low point chart, low entry price, better accommodations in comparison to other resorts, etc. It’s up to you. Where do you see value in the marketplace right now and why? Where is the cost too high?
 

DisneyDad0315

Earning My Ears
Joined
Nov 8, 2019
Aualni is overvalued right now. I paid about $100 a point a couple years ago for a fully loaded contract. Now a stripped contract is going for $130 and up a point. Crazy but hey, if people will pay for it, good for the seller.
 
Joined
Apr 27, 2016
Under valued-SSR. I know there are a lot of people who aren’t fans but I like it. SSR certainly isn’t my favorite resort but I do think it is under valued.

can get it it for around $100 a point on the resale market.
rooms are being refurbed
Decent amount of years left
Reasonable dues
Reasonable point charts
Walking distance to DS

Over valued -Rivera. The grounds are beautiful and I love the decor but I just don’t see the value. Others will disagree but I think the location stinks. People like to call it an Epcot resort and IMO, Riv is an Epcot resort as much as pop is.

Resale restrictions
High dues
Ridiculously high point charts
Can’t walk to a park

One of the reasons DVC is so popular Is just about anybody can find value in one of the many options available. Someone can look at my choices for over/under valued and completely disagree and that is ok.
 

Ruttangel

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Over-valued direct purchases, these stand-out to me
  • BCV - $245pp - a high demand resort but this price makes no sense to me when resale $130
  • AUL - $201pp - I don't know why they don't just put higher incentives on this resort, over 250pts $50 discount, it's never going to sell out otherwise
  • BRV - $186 - a bit close to CCV in pricing, especially when 200pts CCV is $204 after incentives
Over-valued resale purchases - this can be due to the ROFR floor created by Disney
  • SSR - sub-100 point contracts that are stripped selling at $120-$130 make no sense to me
  • AKV/BLT - currently under the ROFR eye of Disney so not much of a bargain as they were 6 months ago
  • RIV - why are listings $145+? much superior resale products out there at that price and heading towards direct prices after incentives
  • OKW 2042 - makes much more sense to wait for a unicorn listing of an extended 2057 OKW
Under-valued direct purchases
  • Unlikely to be any of these but fixed weeks where points already give a saving could be a sound option
Under-valued resale purchases
  • PVB at $140-$150 is a good purchase with those dues and location, ROFR seems to be starting which could push this price up 10% or so
  • VGF has gone up a lot lately, can still be good value at $160pp but brokers pushing stripped listings at $180+ which is a concern
  • CCV has not had any ROFR, due to Disney getting contracts back on foreclosures, if you can get this at $130, looks tempting
 
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Bjaiken77

Earning My Ears
Joined
Feb 19, 2021
If I had to put undervalued direct, I think I’d go with OKW. The difference between resale 2057 and direct is not that large. Going direct, you get points that can be used at Riviera and future resorts, points towards a blue card (if needed), a nice expiration date, an extremely favorable point chart, and super large rooms.

I do think PVB resale is undervalued for reasons you mentioned. There’s over $100 gap between resale and direct.
 

Ruttangel

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
If I had to put undervalued direct, I think I’d go with OKW. The difference between resale 2057 and direct is not that large. Going direct, you get points that can be used at Riviera and future resorts, points towards a blue card (if needed), a nice expiration date, an extremely favorable point chart, and super large rooms.

I do think PVB resale is undervalued for reasons you mentioned. There’s over $100 gap between resale and direct.
I think a lot of people pick SSR over OKW as a direct purchase due to lower dues and the uncertainty of the OKW 2042/2057 mix which may leave a lot less owners to cover costs in 2042. Who knows?
SSR also has direct incentives atm, so that helps too.
However, I prefer OKW as a resort....just the vibe suits me
 

The Jackal

DIS Veteran
Joined
Oct 24, 2017
I this is very subjective. For me personally any sold out resort direct is way, way over valued. Along with Aulani direct. RIV direct is OK.

Resale prices are extremely high right now. Most likely due to the 50th anniversary of the MK and fewer people are selling causing a supply problem. Great for sellers, bad for buyers. Some sites have 1 or 2 SSR contracts.

Resale undervalued SSR, AKV and OKWE. For the length of term and price per point. Resale over valued BCV, VGF and BLT. BCV rooms are same design as SSR, BRV and BWV. For me there is no pool or walking distance to parks, that makes it $30-40 per point more than other 2042 resorts. You still need to bus it to the best park MK. BLT has a great location, but style is our least favorite. VGF is nice but even $160 is a little high.

Way over priced VGC. It’s the only game in town and very limited. Way cheaper to rent points there than to even think of buying it. Will the DLT lower VGC? It’s a wait and see.

Now if you have unlimited funds, nothing really matters.
 

havoc315

DIS Veteran
Joined
Aug 22, 2010
Value is subjective, so I’m curious what your thoughts are on the most overvalued and undervalued contracts on the market right now (direct or resale). To me, value doesn’t mean the lowest price or cheapest, although it can be. It could be price per point, MFs, length of contract, DVC price vs rack rate, low point chart, low entry price, better accommodations in comparison to other resorts, etc. It’s up to you. Where do you see value in the marketplace right now and why? Where is the cost too high?
So many ways to look at it...

Best direct value:
Riviera -- Buyers benefit from the huge supply and Covid, both of which cause Disney to keep the price relatively low with lots of incentives. Can subjectively argue the pros and cons of the resort, but can't debate that it's a nice resort, with some of the nicest and biggest rooms on property, longest contract, and the per point pricing isn't that much greater than some re-sale resorts. Paying $20-30 more per point than re-sale at BLT or PBV or BCV and get a blue card, future resorts, etc. Riviera direct is often cheaper than GFV re-sale. [I suspect you will see re-sale prices drop a bit over the next 3-4 years as supply increases... and then re-sale prices to really start to rise as Riviera becomes sold-out and Disney raises the direct prices significantly].

Best re-sale value:
Animal Kingdom Villas -- With resale prices of $110 to $120 for medium sized contracts, it's among the cheaper contracts -- Only OKW, SSR and BRV are cheaper, and not much cheaper. Meanwhile, of those 4 resorts, AKV has the longest contract -- 2057. It's a gorgeous resort. And it offers 2 unique features that you really need the 11 month ownership: For bargain point hunters, you have the value rooms. And you have concierge level rooms. Spending a few extra points for concierge can actually save you money if you take advantage of the breakfasts, booze and snacks.
 
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havoc315

DIS Veteran
Joined
Aug 22, 2010
And most over-valued...

It's not even close: Beach Club Villas.
Yes, it's an amazing resort for its location and pool.

But there are only 21 years left on the contract.
The resale value will plummet within the next 10 years.
Direct pricing is $245 per point, dues are $7.50 per point.
That means -- You are paying $19 per point, per year. You can rent points every year for cheaper than that!

Even resale, around $145 per point -- Doesn't exactly give you much value. You still are paying $14.50 per year. Might save you a tiny amount over renting points, but the tiny discount probably isn't worth loss of flexibility and huge upfront payment.

So it's not that BCV is a bad resort, just the pricing is out of whack for a 2042 contract expiration.
 

RoseGold

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jan 21, 2020
Def a seller's market right now!!

CCV has so much on the market right now, while everything else is moving. Not a fan myself, but I did see a contract I considered for SAP. If you're looking for a deal, I'd try to negotiate on CCV.
 

ofcabbagesandkings

DIS Veteran
Joined
Aug 16, 2014
I've been shocked to see AKV prices going up up up, especially with no FP, no entertainment and no DP, and with the resort availability issue of so many points unused in 2020. At this time last year, I was looking for a resale AKV contract, but now I've cancelled my DCL cruise and my planned late 2021 WDW trip for UO/IOA instead. Hard to believe there really is that much demand for resale contracts, but I guess the sellers are getting these prices.
 

Bjaiken77

Earning My Ears
Joined
Feb 19, 2021
I get there’s double points here but this price isn’t far off direct pricing. It’s getting silly now.

View attachment 566441
Yeah, some of these contracts are crazy. I guess they are hoping to appeal to a person who just wants to stay at AK and only cares about saving a few bucks. To me, if it gets close to direct pricing, I’m just going to buy direct. Even if you already have your blue card, you can use those points at Riviera and future resorts. Plus, no hassle. I see the crazy over-pricing with 50 point contracts and think the same thing: I’ll just buy 50 points direct.
 

sethschroeder

DIS Veteran
Joined
Feb 24, 2013
The "value" issue with BWV and BRV is the 2042 expiration, which will likely really start to eat away at re-sale value within the next 10 years.
That's in 10 years not today though.

BWV would be $160-$180 if it had 40 years left because of its point chart while BRV would be slightly more than CCV in the $150 range as it has bigger rooms and more capacity.
 

sethschroeder

DIS Veteran
Joined
Feb 24, 2013
Ya if AKV is now $140 I just have to LOL.

AKV isn't really ever going to be hard to get a room at with SAP because there are so many rooms.

It's a good resort with bad transportation options and not near really anything but AK.

I think what's happening is people still are thinking it's a good option for SAP and conversations haven't caught up to buy Poly or something else instead.
 

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