Over/Under Valued Right Now

[Drew729]

Ya if AKV is now $140 I just have to LOL.

AKV isn't really ever going to be hard to get a room at with SAP because there are so many rooms.

It's a good resort with bad transportation options and not near really anything but AK.

I think what's happening is people still are thinking it's a good option for SAP and conversations haven't caught up to buy Poly or something else instead.

AKV and Poly are my favorite combo if owning multiple resorts. I guess for me it’s the versatility of room types at AKV but at a price point that is comparable to OKW/SSR (maybe a slight premium) and favorable points chart along with length of contract that makes it both desirable enough to own but also priced to still be fine to use as SAP.

Poly lack of rooms types holds me back from a bigger contract but I think smaller Poly contracts offer a good value for its location. AKV and Poly are top of my list for theming which I have actually come to really appreciate as my park commando days are over and resort time has increased.

 

[sethschroeder]

price point that is comparable to OKW/SSR

That's the thing $140 is a price point for BLT, Poly, CCV.

At $110 AKV is in that range of slight premium over SSR and OKW.

 

[Drew729]

That's the thing $140 is a price point for BLT, Poly, CCV.

At $110 AKV is in that range of slight premium over SSR and OKW.

Agree. 140 is a head scratcher. I think 110 is fair.

 

[Bjaiken77]

I’ve also seen some really good CCV contracts recently. Around $140 per point seems like a great price for that resort and the length of contract.

 

[sethschroeder]

I’ve also seen some really good CCV contracts recently. Around $140 per point seems like a great price for that resort and the length of contract.

Issue with CCV is going to be studios will never get easier to book only worse likely. The points dumped in to Cabins just killed that resort availability.

The only saving grace at POLY is that they only have studios so with so many rooms of the same type its a little easier for the resort to absorb since various owners will look to move for a 1BR, 2BR, GV at the 7 month window.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

I wouldn’t pay more than $110 for AKV. I wouldn’t pay more than $105 for SSR. I wouldn’t pay more than $135 for BLT. I wouldn’t pay more than $105 for AUL. I wouldn’t pay more than $110 for BRV.

 

[808blessing]

Sounds so 2020. says newbie me.

 

[Bearval]

I think a lot of people pick SSR over OKW as a direct purchase due to lower dues and the uncertainty of the OKW 2042/2057 mix which may leave a lot less owners to cover costs in 2042. Who knows?
SSR also has direct incentives atm, so that helps too.
However, I prefer OKW as a resort....just the vibe suits me

I personally do not think there is going to be a big issue with OKW 2042/2057 contracts. In ~ 10 years when the price of the OKW 2042 contracts begin to plummet you will be lucky to get one to pass ROFR. DVC will be buying them all up and reselling them as 25 year 2057 contracts. Any remaining owners of the 2042 contracts who didn't sign the quit claim deeds will be few in number and would have to sue to and win to get the extension. Good luck with that , I would hate to lose and have all those lawyer fees.

 

[CarolMN]

Any remaining owners of the 2042 contracts who didn't sign the quit claim deeds will be few in number and would have to sue to and win to get the extension.

My understanding is that the 2042 contracts cannot be sold unless the quit claim is signed. Could be wrong, though.

 

[Bearval]

My understanding is that the 2042 contracts cannot be sold unless the quit claim is signed. Could be wrong, though.

Yes that is correct, quit claim deed has to be signed when the 2042 contracts are sold. But when the bottom falls out on the price with 10 years or less , DVC will snap them up add 15 more years and sell them for a hefty profit. Think about it, the closing costs alone are going to be a major expense per point for contracts with less than 10 years to go., who is going to buy them?

 

[CarolMN]

Think about it, the closing costs alone are going to be a major expense per point for contracts with less than 10 years to go., who is going to buy them?

You might be surprised at how many people do not want a long term commitment. As long as the contract is a better deal than paying Disney prices, it will have some value. I agree that most in the market at that time will have other priorities, though.

 

[jmurray2446]

Over-valued direct purchases, these stand-out to me

• BCV - $245pp - a high demand resort but this price makes no sense to me when resale $130
• AUL - $201pp - I don't know why they don't just put higher incentives on this resort, over 250pts $50 discount, it's never going to sell out otherwise
• BRV - $186 - a bit close to CCV in pricing, especially when 200pts CCV is $204 after incentives

Over-valued resale purchases - this can be due to the ROFR floor created by Disney

• SSR - sub-100 point contracts that are stripped selling at $120-$130 make no sense to me
• AKV/BLT - currently under the ROFR eye of Disney so not much of a bargain as they were 6 months ago
• RIV - why are listings $145+? much superior resale products out there at that price and heading towards direct prices after incentives
• OKW 2042 - makes much more sense to wait for a unicorn listing of an extended 2057 OKW

Under-valued direct purchases

• Unlikely to be any of these but fixed weeks where points already give a saving could be a sound option

Under-valued resale purchases

• PVB at $140-$150 is a good purchase with those dues and location, ROFR seems to be starting which could push this price up 10% or so
• VGF has gone up a lot lately, can still be good value at $160pp but brokers pushing stripped listings at $180+ which is a concern
• CCV has not had any ROFR, due to Disney getting contracts back on foreclosures, if you can get this at $130, looks tempting

I'm actually glad to see people saying SSR is over valued resale right now. We just bought direct from Disney at SSR for $160 ppt. That was with a $5 incentive over 150 points. It was important for us to get the Blue card, and it seemed like what I saw on resale markets the price gap was less than other resorts. Plus the newly refurbished rooms, and low annual dues. Maybe we got hosed, but it still felt like a good value for a Direct purchase.

 

[Bearval]

You might be surprised at how many people do not want a long term commitment. As long as the contract is a better deal than paying Disney prices, it will have some value. I agree that most in the market at that time will have other priorities, though.

The one thing that will definitely change is how smaller contracts right now command a much higher price per point. When there is less than 10 years left on the 50 and 25 point contracts the fees you have to pay can be more than the costs per point especially for the 25 point contracts.

 

[Ruttangel]

Yes that is correct, quit claim deed has to be signed when the 2042 contracts are sold. But when the bottom falls out on the price with 10 years or less , DVC will snap them up add 15 more years and sell them for a hefty profit. Think about it, the closing costs alone are going to be a major expense per point for contracts with less than 10 years to go., who is going to buy them?

BWV could still be selling at $120 in 2030 - a 200 point contract could have 2,400 points left - that's $10pp, dues could be $12. Meaning $22pp which will surely be less than a rental cost still?

 

[bdphill22]

The price of a contract is simply a combination of just 3 factors.


1) The annual dues per point.

This one’s easy. The lower the annual dues amount (GFV, BLT, SSR, etc.) the higher the initial purchase price because your future value of discount vs normal rate is higher. The higher the dues the lower your future value is.


2) The duration of the contract.

This one’s also pretty easy. Since DVC’s up front cost buys you discounted booking in the calculation of the price of the room booked normally compared to the dues of your points, the longer you get that discount the more valuable it is.

Even if you don’t plan to use it for as long, or are old in age to where it will likely exceed your life, this still factors in because when you go to sell, or your heirs do, it will be worth more with more years left. Or if passed down it provides more value to your heirs with more years left.

The longer duration contracts (RIV, CCV, PVB, etc) have more value in this regard than the 2042 resorts.


3) The need and value for the 11-month booking window at that specific resort.

Let me first clarify by saying that this is NOT how much you like the resort or the quality of it. You can love a resort but if you never need the 11-month booking window then this part has no excess value. You may love Saratoga Springs but you don’t need to own there to book there, pretty much ever.

All DVC points, regardless of home resort, are worth the same at 7 months.

Even within resorts, depending on room type this can change. Points you want to use for Studios at BWV are worth more than if you want to use points for 1-BR. Even OKW needs the 11-month advantage if you want a low-point Grand Villa, or VB if you want a Beach Cottage, but generally there’s very little advantage to 11-months at these resorts.

This is where it’s both strictly quantitative and very subjective. The availability charts are what they are, but they differ for room types even within resorts. If you like a resort / room type / time of year combination, and that combination needs the 11-month window, then that contract has value to you.


Conclusion

I’ve looked at the availability charts here, and at an outside place we can’t disclose, along with checking availability almost daily for years. I’ve combined that with what people say about demand for different combos to come up with what the general need for availability is. I’ve indexed duration and dues to compare the resorts and I’ve found the following…

The best values right now are CCV and PVB, along with AUL before the recent surge last month.

The worst values right now are BCV, BWV and BLT.

However, if you want to stay at BCV, BWV and BLT in fall Christmas, or if Studios are a much more important factor to you, then these go up.

 

[sethschroeder]

BWV could still be selling at $120 in 2030 - a 200 point contract could have 2,400 points left - that's $10pp, dues could be $12. Meaning $22pp which will surely be less than a rental cost still?

They were talking about OKW though. Direct prices will be like $250+/point for OKW and the 25 year contract it will have left likely.

Also BWV resale if it wasn't handicapped by the time left in 2030 would more likely be worth $200 not $120 at that point.

 

[havoc315]

BWV could still be selling at $120 in 2030 - a 200 point contract could have 2,400 points left - that's $10pp, dues could be $12. Meaning $22pp which will surely be less than a rental cost still?

I'd stick with current dues and current rental costs. While they both may rise, if in accordance with inflation, then we are still talking 2021 dollars. Besides, I'm not so confident of significant rises in rental costs -- As DVC point supply grows, it can cause a drop in rental rates.
Currently, you can rent BWV for $17-$18 per point.

2030... 11 years of points left. $8 in current dues per point.. Compared to renting, break even would be about $9 per point per year. So about $100 per point.
But why make a huge down-payment in advance just to break even??
Cut that by at least 20-30% as an incentive for a huge downpayment.

So using 2021 dollars, I wouldn't expect re-sale value of BWV to be any higher than $70-$80 per point. Caveat -- This is in 2021 dollars. With inflation, it can be higher. But would be far below the value of re-sale at resorts with 2057-2070 contracts.