OKW Listing - No points until 2025??

[Jimmy Geppetto]

This is an odd listing.

No points until 2025. How is that even possible?

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/old-key-west/ok32183/

 

[RoseGold]

You can use them on cruises and I think Adventures by Disney. And I think the cruise already took the points, so it isn't a pending booking delaying close, like a DVC stay would be.

 

[TCRAIG]

Typo?

 

[erionm]

It has a close after 6/18/2022 date, which is the day after the original sail dates for the DVC Wish charter cruise. If the seller was booked on the charter and is still going to sail on the new July 19th date, the close after date would need to be changed.

I suspect the no points until Feb 2025 is an error and possibly should be no points until Feb 2024.

 

[DonMacGregor]

It has a close after 6/18/2022 date, which is the day after the original sail dates for the DVC Wish charter cruise. If the seller was booked on the charter and is still going to sail on the new July 19th date, the close after date would need to be changed.

I suspect the no points until Feb 2025 is an error and possibly should be no points until Feb 2024.

But it also says "Seller will Provide a Credit of $8,000 towards the 2023 + 2024 Annual Dues at closing". The seller wouldn't give a credit for 2024 AF's if 2024 points were available.

 

[HickoryDickory]

You can borrow up to 2 future use years of points for DCL. I'm not sure about ABD. The contract is a February UY so if the seller booked (for example) a Disney cruise sometime in the last two weeks (once their Feb '22 UY began) then they would have been allowed to access and use points from their Feb '23 and Feb '24 UYs, leaving no points until Feb 2025 UY.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

You can borrow up to 2 future use years of points for DCL. I'm not sure about ABD. The contract is a February UY so if the seller booked (for example) a Disney cruise sometime in the last two weeks (once their Feb '22 UY began) then they would have been allowed to access and use points from their Feb '23 and Feb '24 UYs, leaving no points until Feb 2025 UY.

I didnt know that. That makes sense. Thanks for this.

 

[mlittig]

WOW

 

[DonMacGregor]

Yeah, I'm sure folks will be tripping over themselves to spend 40 grand on a contract they can't even use for 3 years...

 

[Where'sPiglet?]

Yeah, I'm sure folks will be tripping over themselves to spend 40 grand on a contract they can't even use for 3 years...

...on a 2042!

The price per point is only $89 AND there's an $8000 credit?! That is more in line with the price for Vero than OKW. I can't see this passing ROFR, but they have been quite erratic lately.

It makes me wonder about when the prices for the 2042 resorts will start to really plummet; this listing makes it seem like they anticipate it will be within the next three years. OKW is going for a lot more per point right now, so it makes me curious as to why they wouldn't wait at least a bit to get more per point and not need to give a credit. Either they think the 2042 price will drop a lot, they want/need the money now, or they just don't want to be holding DVC.

 

[stwaldman]

...on a 2042!

The price per point is only $89 AND there's an $8000 credit?! That is more in line with the price for Vero than OKW. I can't see this passing ROFR, but they have been quite erratic lately.

It makes me wonder about when the prices for the 2042 resorts will start to really plummet; this listing makes it seem like they anticipate it will be within the next three years. OKW is going for a lot more per point right now, so it makes me curious as to why they wouldn't wait at least a bit to get more per point and not need to give a credit. Either they think the 2042 price will drop a lot, they want/need the money now, or they just don't want to be holding DVC.

this contract is effectively ROFR bait, because nobody will pay much for something they can't use, while DVD is probably quite happy pull 450 points back into the system at a discount and convert to the extended use year for a direct sale.

 

[DonMacGregor]

this contract is effectively ROFR bait, because nobody will pay much for something they can't use, while DVD is probably quite happy pull 450 points back into the system at a discount and convert to the extended use year for a direct sale.

But what is Disney going to do with a contract that has zero points for 3 years?

 

[stwaldman]

But what is Disney going to do with a contract that has zero points for 3 years?

a) they could just sit on it, because the 2042 OKW inventory is probably a bigger headache to them than the TVOM of a measly 20-30K
b) this is going into the memory bank, but i thought disney could carve into their allotment of retained points to fill out the contract, but i might be very wrong on that, i thought i recalled reading it here on the boards once about why they at one point got aggressive on stripped contracts (which were obv getting sold cheaper)

editing to note i tried to dig up those old threads, and it might just be that buying the stripped points helps them meet the minimum amount of points they need to retain (which then might free up other points for sales). So, perhaps not the same mechanics, but a similar effect overall of letting DVD stay above board in selling OWK points that they acquired on the cheap.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

...on a 2042!

The price per point is only $89 AND there's an $8000 credit?! That is more in line with the price for Vero than OKW. I can't see this passing ROFR, but they have been quite erratic lately.

It makes me wonder about when the prices for the 2042 resorts will start to really plummet; this listing makes it seem like they anticipate it will be within the next three years. OKW is going for a lot more per point right now, so it makes me curious as to why they wouldn't wait at least a bit to get more per point and not need to give a credit. Either they think the 2042 price will drop a lot, they want/need the money now, or they just don't want to be holding DVC.

My thoughts exactly. The seller is likely done with DVC and will reap the benefits of having cash in hand today. They also de-risk themselves of any future MF increases.

 

[RoseGold]

It makes me wonder about when the prices for the 2042 resorts will start to really plummet; this listing makes it seem like they anticipate it will be within the next three years.

The starter BC/BW contracts will hold for a while. There will always be buyers who can stomach 10 years better than 50 and not have to take out a mortgage. If I were buying in 2029 instead of 2019, I think the 2042s really would have been in play for me.

That's also why this listing makes no sense, LOL. Just hold for a few years and sell loaded. And who pays the 2023 dues? I'm so confused...

 

[kristenrice]

My thoughts exactly. The seller is likely done with DVC and will reap the benefits of having cash in hand today. They also de-risk themselves of any future MF increases.

^^^This^^^
That $8000 credit is more of a gesture of goodwill than actual "maintenance fees". It's based on 2022's MF's and since OKW's fees have gone up no less than 4% each year over the past 5 years (if my memory and math are correct), the buyer is still looking at paying an extra $400 for points they won't even own. That "credit" should be at least $8500, but I can see why the seller would minimize the amount...I cannot see this one getting past ROFR and I would not want to "credit" DVD any additional funds. I imagine the seller is just looking for an offer on the table. It will only take one patient buyer to make an offer and then Disney can snag it back.

 

[DonMacGregor]

It will only take one patient buyer to make an offer and then Disney can snag it back.

You mean like one of the 8,000 Guides who tell you they're not just selling, but "an owner too"? Maybe they make an offer, DVC ROFR's the contract, and team player CM gets a little extra Pixie Dust kiss with their commission check? LOL

 

[DaveNan]

I calculate this way..... Points are worth $16-17 on the rental market. With dues at $8-9. The "income" you would get for renting out 3 years of points (22, 23, and 24 or "losing" in this case) is $8 per year, or $24 total. So $89 on a contract with no 22, 23, and 24 points plays like $113 on a contract with the 2022, 23, and 24 points. - Which is pretty close to going rate on a 450 point contract. The $8000 credit is giving you money up front to pay the $8-9 per point on 450 points for 2 years, otherwise you would need to add/subtract $16-17 per year not just $8 (2023 and 2024 - 2022 is already paid at this point). So they price actually is very consistent with other contracts on the site. Disney can't sell this contract unless they can make it whole with the 2022, 2023, and 2024 points, or they will have to sit on it for 2-3 years before they can sell it. I am guessing they use a pretty high internal rate of return (12-15%) on business decisions, so I suspect this will pass ROFR. But as we all know - guessing an answer to the ROFR question in always just a guess.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I calculate this way..... Points are worth $16-17 on the rental market. With dues at $8-9. The "income" you would get for renting out 3 years of points (22, 23, and 24 or "losing" in this case) is $8 per year, or $24 total. So $89 on a contract with no 22, 23, and 24 points plays like $113 on a contract with the 2022, 23, and 24 points. - Which is pretty close to going rate on a 450 point contract. The $8000 credit is giving you money up front to pay the $8-9 per point on 450 points for 2 years, otherwise you would need to add/subtract $16-17 per year not just $8 (2023 and 2024 - 2022 is already paid at this point). So they price actually is very consistent with other contracts on the site. Disney can't sell this contract unless they can make it whole with the 2022, 2023, and 2024 points, or they will have to sit on it for 2-3 years before they can sell it. I am guessing they use a pretty high internal rate of return (12-15%) on business decisions, so I suspect this will pass ROFR. But as we all know - guessing an answer to the ROFR question in always just a guess.

But, at the end of the day, you’re still stuck holding 450 points that do you zero good for 3 years. Oh, and you’re out 40 grand.

 

[DaveNan]

But, at the end of the day, you’re still stuck holding 450 points that do you zero good for 3 years. Oh, and you’re out 40 grand.

I would say we are in agreement on that. Your out 32K (40K-8K credited at closing) and then you pay 4K per year in 2023 and 2024 and get no points for it. And after all is said and done you paid the financial equivalent to $113, basically the going rate for points today. So you suffer through 3 years of no points and don't get a "deal" on those points. If I was in the market, I would pay $113 for a contract with 2022 points, or $121 for a loaded contract, over paying 89 for this one and waiting 3 years to use any points.