OK ... If you booked a GUARANTEE CABIN ... share the news of what you got!!

[captaincrash]

OK...

At this point we have 1,087 visits to this page... and 45 "votes" reporting something about the sort of cabins that were given off a guaranteed reservation. We assume that most of these were "guaranteed catagory 12" even though 9 and 7 guarantee reservations have been seen.

So what are the odds - in a totally non-scientific - uncertified - and statistically insignificant way?

Well - so far - if you start in a 12 then the odds of getting a catagory ....

12 = 15.5%
11 = 17.7%
10 = 17.7%
9 = 24.4%
8 = 13.3%
7 = 4.4%
6+= 6.7%

Put another way ... the odds for a veranda or better are 11.1%; and for a window = 37.7%; and for an inside cabin that is above a 12 = 35.4%. It looks like it is an 86.5% chance for something better than a catagory 12 -or- better than the level at which you reserved. IE - you reserve a catagory 9 guarantee and GET a "8".

In addition to that - if you're a Cast-Away club repeat cruiser this is how the odds look. Only 1 in 5 of those with a veranda upgrade were CC members. And 6 of 17 receiving a window were CC members. Of course, 9 of 25 receiving an inside cabin assignment were CC members. So - overall - 16 of 45 reporting were Castaway Club members anyways.... which is 35.6%. SO ... having 1 in 5 get a veranda is like having a 20% chance for a V-upgrade if you're a CC member - substantially worse than the average. And getting a window is a 35.3% probability IF you're a CC member - which is consistent with the overall average. AND ... if you're a CC member than your EXPECTION for an INSIDE cabin is 36%... the overall average is 35.6%. So again, this is consistent with the overall average?

I guess inventory control has decided NOT to reward repeat clients with the best upgrades - instead they are focusing subtly on trying to "WOW" a 1st time patrons with better veranda cabins - specificly VERANDAs.

I am mildly disappointed even though I have NOT received my cabin assignment yet. Of course - there remains an ESTIMATED 11.1% chance for a veranda overall. Or as a DIS member... 1 in 15 got a veranda... which is comparable to a 6.7% chance. As a non-DIS member there appears to be a 4 in 30 which is comparable to a 13.3% probability.



SO... aside from all that .... I remain hopeful for a veranda - as the odds are slightly worse then hitting a 3 number combination bet on a roullette wheel (7.89%) ... or put another way since we're talking about gambling.... how many of you have played 21 in Vegas? Well... the single deck odds for the dealer to draw to 21 is 7.36% That is slightly better than my adjusted odds for a CC member to get a veranda cabin ~ 6.7%. So - how often does this happen to you in Vegas where the dealer draws to 21? Well... I'd say the ratio of payoff is BETTER on VEGAS roulette then on DCL for a Veranda given the ratio of payoff. IE... the Vegas payoff is 11:1 ... and 1.19% more often while Disney amounts to about 2:1 payoff. SO - gamble more at Vegas - and reserve what YOU WANT on DCL... especially if you're a CC member. Of course.... with Disney if you you are assured of getting something with an 84.5% for a "win" with a catagory 11 or better. And at Vegas when you lose (92.64% of the time with a 3 number combination on roulette) you walk away with nothing but the moments of brief excitement.

Maybe the catagory 12 guarantee "bet" with DCL is not so bad after all - as we always have a fantastic time no matter which catagory we've had in the past!!!! Plus - we DO get decent CC member cabin gifts too as a spiff. That's actually more of a "trophy" then a simple souveneer towel or shoulder bag, eh!!!!

​

 

[classicdisney]

OK...

At this point we have 1,087 visits to this page... and 45 "votes" reporting something about the sort of cabins that were given off a guaranteed reservation. We assume that most of these were "guaranteed catagory 12" even though 9 and 7 guarantee reservations have been seen.

So what are the odds - in a totally non-scientific - uncertified - and statistically insignificant way?

Well - so far - if you start in a 12 then the odds of getting a catagory ....

12 = 15.5%
11 = 17.7%
10 = 17.7%
9 = 24.4%
8 = 13.3%
7 = 4.4%
6+= 6.7%

Put another way ... the odds for a veranda or better are 11.1%; and for a window = 37.7%; and for an inside cabin that is above a 12 = 35.4%. It looks like it is an 86.5% chance for something better than a catagory 12 -or- better than the level at which you reserved. IE - you reserve a catagory 9 guarantee and GET a "8".

In addition to that - if you're a Cast-Away club repeat cruiser this is how the odds look. Only 1 in 5 of those with a veranda upgrade were CC members. And 6 of 17 receiving a window were CC members. Of course, 9 of 25 receiving an inside cabin assignment were CC members. So - overall - 16 of 45 reporting were Castaway Club members anyways.... which is 35.6%. SO ... having 1 in 5 get a veranda is like having a 20% chance for a V-upgrade if you're a CC member - substantially worse than the average. And getting a window is a 35.3% probability IF you're a CC member - which is consistent with the overall average. AND ... if you're a CC member than your EXPECTION for an INSIDE cabin is 36%... the overall average is 35.6%. So again, this is consistent with the overall average?

I guess inventory control has decided NOT to reward repeat clients with the best upgrades - instead they are focusing subtly on trying to "WOW" a 1st time patrons with better veranda cabins - specificly VERANDAs.

I am mildly disappointed even though I have NOT received my cabin assignment yet. Of course - there remains an ESTIMATED 11.1% chance for a veranda overall. Or as a DIS member... 1 in 15 got a veranda... which is comparable to a 6.7% chance. As a non-DIS member there appears to be a 4 in 30 which is comparable to a 13.3% probability.



SO... aside from all that .... I remain hopeful for a veranda - as the odds are slightly worse then hitting a 3 number combination bet on a roullette wheel (7.89%) ... or put another way since we're talking about gambling.... how many of you have played 21 in Vegas? Well... the single deck odds for the dealer to draw to 21 is 7.36% That is slightly better than my adjusted odds for a CC member to get a veranda cabin ~ 6.7%. So - how often does this happen to you in Vegas where the dealer draws to 21? Well... I'd say the ratio of payoff is BETTER on VEGAS roulette then on DCL for a Veranda given the ratio of payoff. IE... the Vegas payoff is 11:1 ... and 1.19% more often while Disney amounts to about 2:1 payoff. SO - gamble more at Vegas - and reserve what YOU WANT on DCL... especially if you're a CC member. Of course.... with Disney if you you are assured of getting something with an 84.5% for a "win" with a catagory 11 or better. And at Vegas when you lose (92.64% of the time with a 3 number combination on roulette) you walk away with nothing but the moments of brief excitement.

Maybe the catagory 12 guarantee "bet" with DCL is not so bad after all - as we always have a fantastic time no matter which catagory we've had in the past!!!! Plus - we DO get decent CC member cabin gifts too as a spiff. That's actually more of a "trophy" then a simple souveneer towel or shoulder bag, eh!!!!

​

GOING ON FIRST CRUISE IN JAN 07. HAVE CAT 12 GUARANTEE SINCE FEB 06. DO YOU HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO GET UPGRADED TO A BETTER CABIN THEN SOMEONE WHO RESERVED AFTER YOU. JUST HOPEING FOR SOME OF THAT PIXIE DUST.

 

[cepmom]

we booked a gty 12 and were just assigned a cat 11 the other day. I was secretly hoping for a verandah, but I'm happy with the 11 as well. It is just 2 of us, so we could have been put in the 12 also

 

[RubyCam]

I booked a CAT 6 Gty in 5/06 for 3 day cruise in 6/06. Myself and my daughter were 1st time cruisers. We got a CAT 6 and we loved our cabin, we would choose it again.

 

[captaincrash]

So what are the odds - in a totally non-scientific - uncertified - and statistically insignificant way? We're at 1306 viewings and 51 votes or opions reported... and this is getting statistically significant.

Well - if you start in a 12 then the odds of getting a catagory ....

12 = 17.6%
11 = 21.6%
10 = 17.6%
9 = 23.5%
8 = 11.8%
7 = 3.9%
6+= 5.9%​

Put another way ... the odds for a veranda or 5+ catagories are 9.8%; and for a window or 3+ catagories = 35.3%; and for an inside cabin that is above a 12 or +1 or 2 catagories = 39.2%. It looks like it is an 82.4% chance for something better than a catagory 12 -or- better than the level at which you reserved. IE - you reserve a catagory 6 guarantee and GET a "6".

So... now that we have some developing statisitical significance here... the good news simply is that its' not all that bad. Especially with no one voting they has a BAD cabin assignment. Some posted that they went lateral on their guarantee assignment by buying an upgrade and new location.

I'm still waiting for my guarantee 12 assignment - and as such - I am hoping DCL will not find a quad cat 12 for me INSIDE the engine room. We've never booked a guarantee cabin before (that I can recall... sometimes I think I might be having a "senior moment" sometimes). At any rate - with 1300 visits and 51 responses I think we have a working impression of what goes on. Maybe if we get some interesting changes in the total votes I'll resummarize this - otherwise I think it's time to let this thread fade.

Cheers everyone - and thank you for your contributions, curiosity and interest.

Bloody Captain Crash

 

[ReallyFunMom]

We booked Cat 12 GTY and got a Cat 11. Not a "real" upgrade, we are party of 4 so there wasn't a choice.

 

[DisneyGirlTinkerbell]

Well, we got the bad news yesterday. After five DCL cruises, we have NEVER received an upgrade ! We booked on the 10 night S. Caribb., through a TA, over a year ago! She was sure our cat. 12 gty would be at least an 11.

I'm glad my kids are growing up now and we won't do Disney anymore paying these ridiculous prices when they don't even appreciate all the thousands of dollars I've given them over the years. I was considering the Med cruise for next summer, but no way on Disney now. I'm going for RCL...I'll be a new customer to them. Perhaps I'll get an upgrade !

 

[mruhaak]

DisneygirlTinkerbell-
So sorry to hear you didn't get an upgrade!! We got one on our 3 night in January as first time cruisers from 12 to 9. We had booked 2 cabins for ourself and mother and grandmother and we both got the same upgrade. I felt very fortunate indeed. Maybe the time of year has to do with it? It was the week AFTER new year's.

I would be interested in hearing all about your 10 day cruise though! I've never cruised more than 5 days. Sounds glorious!! I'm sure you will have a wonderful time anyway... will be watching for your trip report when you return.

By the way I have cruised (sans kids) with RCL on Voyager of the Seas and it was awesome... Ours boys are really small right now so I'd prefer to do Disney if we can for our next cruise in a couple years. Hope I can afford it!

 

[GoofyGuy777]

Well, we got the bad news yesterday. After five DCL cruises, we have NEVER received an upgrade ! We booked on the 10 night S. Caribb., through a TA, over a year ago! She was sure our cat. 12 gty would be at least an 11.

I'm glad my kids are growing up now and we won't do Disney anymore paying these ridiculous prices when they don't even appreciate all the thousands of dollars I've given them over the years. I was considering the Med cruise for next summer, but no way on Disney now. I'm going for RCL...I'll be a new customer to them. Perhaps I'll get an upgrade !

Don't give up hope.....I am on the same cruise as you and got no upgrade either. I just checked the DCL website and noticed the the Cat 12 are availible again. This might be good news for us as they are trying to fill an empty ship.

Good luck to the both of us getting surprise upgrades at the port

Steve

 

[S.S.Oceanlover]

Don't give up hope.....I am on the same cruise as you and got no upgrade either. I just checked the DCL website and noticed the the Cat 12 are availible again. This might be good news for us as they are trying to fill an empty ship.

Good luck to the both of us getting surprise upgrades at the port

Steve

Steve,
How does this upgrade at the port work?? Very curious. We are in a cat 11 handicapped room. Do the 2 bathroom cabins start in cat 10?

Bill

 

[stampinshauna]

We had a cat 12 booked for 2 cruises, both were booked through our local TA:

1st cruise ever we booked in April 2004 for Oct 2004, received a cat 11 (5133) and loved the location.

2nd cruise we booked in Feb 2005 for Oct 2005 and received a cat 9 (2074) and enjoyed this location as well.

 

[GoofyGuy777]

Steve,
How does this upgrade at the port work?? Very curious. We are in a cat 11 handicapped room. Do the 2 bathroom cabins start in cat 10?

Bill

Hi Bill,

You could call DCL and see if they can switch to another Cat.11? The split bathrooms start at cat 10.

One of two things can happen when you go to port:

1) A surprise upgrade is given to you at no cost

2) You can ask if there are any upgrades available?
-at this time either you will be quoted a price for an upgrade or given one if you are very lucky.
-or you will be directed to the managers desk where you can inquire on the cost for an upgrade.

Hope this helps you. Good Luck!!!

Steve

 

[S.S.Oceanlover]

Hi Bill,

You could call DCL and see if they can switch to another Cat.11? The split bathrooms start at cat 10.

One of two things can happen when you go to port:

1) A surprise upgrade is given to you at no cost

2) You can ask if there are any upgrades available?
-at this time either you will be quoted a price for an upgrade or given one if you are very lucky.
-or you will be directed to the managers desk where you can inquire on the cost for an upgrade.

Hope this helps you. Good Luck!!!

Steve

Steve,
Yes that is very helpful! I appreciate the info. I heard you could get changed all the way up to the time you are getting on the ship. I keep checking every day. I'll ask when checking in if we don't get changed before getting on the ship. It doesn't hurt to ask right? In the end we'll be very happy in the cabin we were assigned if all else fails.

Thanks again
Bill

 

[PoohJen]

Great poll, Cap'n!!!

anyone else out there with a vote to cast?

 

[captaincrash]

So what are the odds - in a totally non-scientific - uncertified - and statistically insignificant way? We're at 1804 viewings and 61 votes or opions reported... and this is getting statistically significant.

Well - if you start in a 12 then the odds of getting a catagory ....

12 = 16.4%
11 = 21.3%
10 = 16.4%
9 = 26.2%
8 = 9.8%
7 = 3.3%
6+= 6.6%​

Put another way ... the odds for a veranda or 5+ catagories are 9.9%; and for a window or 3+ catagories = 36.0%; and for an inside cabin that is above a 12 or +1 or 2 catagories = 37.7%. It looks like it is an 83.6% chance for something better than a catagory 12 -or- better than the level at which you reserved. IE - you reserve a catagory 6 guarantee and GET a "6".

ALSO... here is the data if YOU are a repeat customer (Castaway Club) and indicated so...

Cat 12 .... 5 of 10 were CC (50%)
Cat 11 .... 5 of 13 were CC (38.5%)
Cat 10 .... 3 of 10 were CC (30%) split bath
Cat 9 .... 4 of 16 were CC (25%) window
Cat 8 .... 3 of 6 were CC (50%)
Cat 7 .... 1 of 2 were CC (50%) veranda
Cat 6+ ... 0 of 4 were CC ( 0% )

Only 21 of 61 who voted what they were assigned AND admitted they were CC means that among the whole voting group ~ 34.4% were CC members. SO... if any given catagory had more then 34.4% with CC members than this was an above average possibility. IE... in a catagory 9, 10 or 6+ we had a lower than average representation of CC members. While in catagories 12, 11, 8 and 7 we had an above average representation of CC members.

Or put another way.... the 21 CC members seem to have the following probabilities for an cabin assignment.... and the 40 non-CC members enjoy the following probabilities:

Castaway Club Non-Castaway Club

Cat 12 ... 23.8% Cat 12 ... 12.5%
Cat 11 ... 23.8% Cat 11 ... 20.0%
Cat 10 ... 14.3% Cat 10 ... 17.5%
Cat 9 ... 14.3% Cat 9 ... 10.0%
Cat 8 ... 14.3% Cat 8 ... 7.5%
Cat 7 ... 4.8% Cat 7 ... 2.5%
Cat 6+ ... 0% Cat 6+ ...10.0%

Comparing the odds for various cabin catagories broken out for CC and non-CC members shows that for a....

catagory 12 ... a CC member is 11.3% more likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 11 ... a CC member is 3.8% more likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 10 ... a CC member is 3.2% LESS likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 9 ... a CC member is 4.3% LESS likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 8 ... a CC member is 7.2% more likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 7 ... a CC member is 2.3% more likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 6+... a CC member is 100% LESS likely to get this than non-CC

I'm not very impressed by the catagory 12 and 6+ implications for CC members. Of course ... this is all fairly unscientific and more educated guess then science.

At least we now have some developing statisitical significance and "indication" here... and the good news simply is that its' not all that bad. Especially with no one voting they has a BAD cabin assignment. Some posted that they went lateral on their guarantee assignment by buying an upgrade and new location. AND if you're a CC member there is a 76.2% chance of getting better than a catagory 12 assignment. And of course, non-CC members can look forward to an 87.5% chance for a catgory 11 or better! Loyalty pays....?

I'm still waiting for my guarantee 12 assignment (less than 5 weeks before my embarkation)- and as such - I am hoping DCL will not find a quad cat 12 for me INSIDE the engine room with a coal shovel. We've never booked a guarantee cabin before (that I can recall... sometimes I think I might be having a "senior moment" sometimes). At any rate - with 1800+ visits and 61 responses I think we have a working impression of what goes on. Maybe if we get some interesting changes in the total votes I'll resummarize this - otherwise I think it's time to let this thread fade.

BTW... for giving up cabin location selection I estimate we would save $1100+ if we only get a catagory 11. Which is generally what I think is most likely given we are a party of 4. Even if we get a 12 we save a little $. So - we really don't LOSE. And we booked fairly recently. I would of course be very pleasantly surprised IF we got a window .... or dare I dream ... a veranda. I see no hope for better than a catagory 7 as a CC member. Sigh.... I do wish loyalty paid with DCL... but sadly it does not seem so. If any DCL folks are seeing this... it would do well to rebalance the distribution of cabins to give your loyal patrons who have likely spent 10,000+ or 10s of 1000s with the Mouse. Many of could be LIFETIME fans... and we do appredciate all tokens of affection for our patronage - like the nice welcome gifts for CC folks in the cabin.

It would be nice if every sailing DCL ran a SPECIAL FREE lottery among repeat patrons (like me) - and the lucky winner got a FREE sailing! But I suspect this is not very likely to happen ... especially if the top tier of cabins are taken by repeat patrons! But it IS a wild eyed notion I thought I'd aire! Just in case a decision maker is looking and feels it is "doable"! Just think of the FREE BUZZ you'd generate !!! That would be way out of porportion to the lost revenue. In fact ... if the promotion brought in 2 new patrons for the 1 given away on an other-wise less than 100% full sailing then it is a net GAIN for the line. And if we booked a cheap cabin then we would have a low dollar payout... and if we booked a high dollar cabin then our payout would be larger! That seems fair to me!!! And you'd give us all something to talk about on the DIS and Cruise Critic! To say nothing of all the FREE MEDIA BUZZ and PARK BUZZ you'd generate ... and the mad scramble of past patrons returning to DCL!!!! What do ya say????

Cheers everyone - and thank you for your contributions, curiosity and interest.

Bloody Captain Crash

 

[logan1_2000]

I did not initally see a way to indicate that I booked a Cat. 8 GTY and got a Cat. 5. The choices all presume a cat. 12 GTY was booked until the parenthetical, and I confess I did not read that far. So I was only able to vote that I was a CC member, that our location was ok (though we hated the solid walled verandah) and that we used a TA. So statistically, add one more +3 category result.

 

[wendyl]

I have not yet booked out cruise for March, so cannot add to your survey...but just want to say that I'm DROOLING over these statistics as I just finished teaching a Prob. & Stats class (final exam was today) -- this would have been a great in-class study!!

 

[The Great Baboo]

What is a GTY cabin? We just booked our 1st cruise w/ DU and since we requested connecting staterooms, we have cabins already assigned to us = cat.8 #6024 & 6026.....is there a chance we coould get better connecting cabins when we pay the cruise off?

 

[The Great Baboo]

bump

 

[captaincrash]

I did not initally see a way to indicate that I booked a Cat. 8 GTY and got a Cat. 5. The choices all presume a cat. 12 GTY was booked until the parenthetical, and I confess I did not read that far. So I was only able to vote that I was a CC member, that our location was ok (though we hated the solid walled verandah) and that we used a TA. So statistically, add one more +3 category result.

OK...

... I'll keep your results in mind the next time I run a summary. I really should have mentioned that this is not purely a series of cat 12 comparisons... but a number of catagory jumped Query. Earlier summaries mentioned this - and I have grown lazy and copied the most recent summary and plugged in new numbes and a little new commentary.


I'll try to be more careful next time. As I am going to get MY cabin assignment some day soon - and when I do I'll contribute my vote.

Anyone who believes in faries - say a little prayer for a fellow DIS enthusiast who would like to get better than an inside assignment on their catagory 12 guarantee.

In advance - thanks for humoring me!