So what are the odds - in a totally non-scientific - uncertified - and statistically insignificant way? We're at 3,109 viewings and 119 contributors and 87 catagory votes plus 5 "catagory vote adjustments" reported... and this is getting statistically meaningful at 92 cabin votes.
Well - if you start in a 12 then the odds of getting a catagory OR the odds of gaining the following catagory improvements are....
12 (+0) = 16.30%
11 (+1) = 21.74%
10 (+2) = 20.65%
9 (+3) = 26.09%
8 (+4) = 7.61%
7 (+5) = 2.17%
6+(6+)= 5.43%
Total accounted for = 99.99%
Put another way ... the odds for a veranda or 5+ catagories are 7.60%; and for a window or 3 or 4 catagories = 33.70%; and for an inside cabin that is above a 12 or +1 or 2 catagories = 43.39%. It looks like it is an 83.7% chance for something better than a catagory 12 -or- better than the level at which you reserved. IE - you reserve a catagory 6 guarantee and GET a "7" or higher.
ALSO... here is the data if YOU are a repeat customer (
Castaway Club) and indicated so...
Cat 12 .... 7 of 15 were CC (46.67%)
Cat 11 .... 9 of 20 were CC (45.00%)
Cat 10 ....10 of 19 were CC (52.63%) split bath
Cat 9 ....10 of 24 were CC (41.67%) window
Cat 8 .... 3 of 7 were CC (42.86%)
Cat 7 .... 1 of 2 were CC (50.00%) veranda
Cat 6+ ... 0 of 5 were CC ( 0% )
Only 40 of 92 who voted what they were assigned AND admitted they were CC means that among the whole voting group ~ 43.48% were CC members. SO... if any given catagory had more then 43.48% with CC members than this was an above average possibility. IE... in a catagory 9, 8 and especially in 6 or better we had a lower than average representation of CC members. While in catagories 12, 11, 10 and 7 we had an above average representation of CC members.
Or put another way.... the 40 CC members seem to have the following probabilities for an cabin assignment.... and the 52 non-CC members enjoy the following probabilities:
Castaway Club Non-Castaway Club
Cat 12 ... 17.50% Cat 12 ... 15.38%
Cat 11 ... 22.50% Cat 11 ... 21.15%
Cat 10 ... 25.00% Cat 10 ... 17.31%
Cat 9 ... 25.00% Cat 9 ... 26.92%
Cat 8 ... 7.50% Cat 8 ... 7.70%
Cat 7 ... 2.50% Cat 7 ... 1.92%
Cat 6+ ... 0% Cat 6+ ... 9.62%
Comparing the odds for various cabin catagories broken out for CC and non-CC members shows that for a....
catagory 12 ... a CC member is 2.12%+ and 13.78% more likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 11 ... a CC member is 1.35%+ and 6.38% more likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 10 ... a CC member is 7.69%+ and 44.43% more likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 9 ... a CC member is -1.92% and 7.13% less likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 8 ... a CC member is -0.20% and 2.60% LESS likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 7 ... a CC member is -0.58% and 30.20% LESS likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 6+... a CC member is 100% LESS likely to get this than non-CC
I'm not very impressed by the catagory 6+ implications for CC members. Of course ... this is all fairly unscientific and more educated guess then science.
At least we now have some developing statisitical significance and "indication" here... and the good news simply is that its' not all that bad. Especially with FOUR of 92 DIS folks voting they has a BAD cabin assignment. That translates into a 4.34% of getting an undesirable cabin assignment. As a result some folks posted that they went lateral on their guarantee assignment by buying an upgrade and new location. AND
if you're a CC member there is an 83.50% chance of getting better than a catagory 12 assignment.
And of course,
non-CC members can look forward to an 84.62% chance for a catgory 11 or better! PLUS the 1st timers have the ONLY chance for a 6+ catagory or veranda assignment from 12 guarantee!
Loyalty pays....? Not quite!
You're going on a 
