This sounds spot on to me! We're also booked for may 2014 and spend almost every dinner conversation trying to decide what construction will be enough to make us switch resorts. We're so desperate to be at the poly I could be okay with the pool remodel as long as the lobby was untouched. But you start messing with the pool, lobby and two buildings all at the same time I'm going want some major discounts! With an awesome rate, a lapu lapu, and a few of chef Eugene's treats in the cl lounge I can get over construction- Mahalo Mickey!
Another huge Mahalo to Tikiman! Your updates and speculations have been awesome- very thankful to be in the know with all of the potential DVC construction. If you're reading this thread and haven't liked his Facebook page- do it asap! Can't imagine booking a TPV CL room only to show up and find the poly is disarray- it pays to know!
I'm trying to decide whether or not I can live with just the pool (and maybe some minor GCH) remodel. I know they'll boat us over to GF but then I start thinking, why not just stay GF and avoid the hassle? But my heart still says Poly (in part, because I want to check out the remodeled Poly rooms and don't particularly care for the decor of the GF rooms).
And on the discount front, I'm concerned that even if the're a lot of construction going on (e.g., pool, GCH, Sunset Point, TTC end of the resort, Tiki torches down at night, etc.) Disney won't be all that motivated to give big discounts because:
(1) Having Tahiti and Rapa Nui out for DVC conversion takes rougly 1/4 of the rooms out of inventory, meaning Disney can live with less resort capacity (and is going to want to milk all they can out of the remaining rooms); and
(2) By early spring, the New Fantasyland (Mine Train, etc.) should be finished, which should increase demand across all of their resort properties, but most especially the Monorail resorts.
I'm still holding on to my Poly ressie but can't help but think I'm irrationally giving into my inner Poly fanboy if I'm honestly considering spending the big money to stay there if it's going to be a construction wall laden/tiki torchless mess.