Official Hurricane JEANNE Thread
- Thread starter HumanCookie
- Start date
disneyohdisney
Earning My Ears
- Joined
- May 13, 2002
- Messages
- 38
(already posted track picture deleted)
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
Originally posted by kmiles
I may be wrong on this one but I don't think Jeanne is or has ever been a hurricane.
She was, but only for a very short time lasted for one advisory and it was when she hit the dominican republic.
Tracking info for Tropical Depression Jeanne
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 GMT 09/13/04 16.0N 60.4W 30 1010 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 09/14/04 16.2N 61.2W 30 1010 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 09/14/04 16.6N 62.2W 35 1009 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 09/14/04 16.6N 63.1W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/14/04 16.8N 63.9W 60 998 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/15/04 17.2N 64.5W 60 996 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/15/04 17.5N 65.1W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/15/04 17.8N 65.8W 70 991 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/15/04 18.4N 66.5W 70 991 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/16/04 18.5N 67.3W 65 993 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/16/04 18.8N 68.1W 70 992 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/16/04 18.8N 68.7W 80 986 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/16/04 19.0N 69.3W 70 990 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/17/04 19.4N 69.7W 70 990 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/17/04 19.5N 70.1W 65 992 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/17/04 19.5N 71.2W 65 993 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/17/04 20.2N 71.8W 35 1002 Tropical Depression
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 180248
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2004
...JEANNE UPGRADED BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND ABOUT OR ABOUT 105
MILES... 165 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
JEANNE APPEARED TO BE STATIONARY BUT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES
... 30 KM FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST
OF HISPANIOLA AS JEANNE MOVES AWAY.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF JEANNE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...20.4 N... 72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2004
...JEANNE UPGRADED BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND ABOUT OR ABOUT 105
MILES... 165 KM... SOUTHWEST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
JEANNE APPEARED TO BE STATIONARY BUT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES
... 30 KM FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST
OF HISPANIOLA AS JEANNE MOVES AWAY.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF JEANNE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...20.4 N... 72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
"On top of Spaghetti"
This is why it's called the Spaghetti Model
Lisa - glad to see you posting again. With all these storms, we all need a healthy dose of humor. Sometimes you need to laugh because it's healthier than crying.
Prayers for everyone without power, AC, water pressure, and other daily needs.
This is why it's called the Spaghetti Model
Lisa - glad to see you posting again. With all these storms, we all need a healthy dose of humor. Sometimes you need to laugh because it's healthier than crying.
Prayers for everyone without power, AC, water pressure, and other daily needs.
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 180840
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
...JEANNE NEARS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LATEST PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JEANNE.
CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...20.7 N... 72.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
...JEANNE NEARS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LATEST PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JEANNE.
CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...20.7 N... 72.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 181135
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
...JEANNE NEAR GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OR NEAR THE
EASTERN TIP OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH... 13
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LATEST PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JEANNE.
CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...21.2 N... 72.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1000 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
...JEANNE NEAR GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OR NEAR THE
EASTERN TIP OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH... 13
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LATEST PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JEANNE.
CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...21.2 N... 72.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1000 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 181435
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
...JEANNE BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST...VERY NEAR
GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JEANNE.
CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...21.4 N... 73.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
...JEANNE BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST...VERY NEAR
GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JEANNE.
CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...21.4 N... 73.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 182032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
...JEANNE REFORMS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND VERY
NEAR THE CAICOS ISLANDS.
JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JEANNE.
CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...22.0 N... 72.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT41 KNHC 182034
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
JEANNE THAT WAS TRACKED SINCE IT MOVED AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA HAS RUN
WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AND IS DISSIPATING. SURFACE DATA
FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT A
NEW CENTER HAS REFORMED UNDER THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. THIS BY NO MEANS INDICATES A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAND
TURK. AN UPPER-LOW WHICH GLOBAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING TO MOVE
SOUTH AND WEAKEN...INSTEAD MOVED OVER THE CYCLONE AND AMPLYFIED...
DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS RESULTED IN WEAKENING. NOW THIS
NEW CENTER LOCATION IS UNDER A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYLONE OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GOES ALONG WITH BOTH SHIPS
AND THE GFDL MODELS.
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. IT IS ONLY BEING
SHIFTED EASTWARD DUE TO THE REFORMATION. JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THEREAFTER...A RATHER STRONG HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE THE
TROUGH AND DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH JEANNE MOVES...THE CYCLONE COULD
BE BLOCKED AND MOVE WESTWARD OR COULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH. SINCE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND
3 DAYS...THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP JEANNE NEARLY
STATIONARY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS AT DAYS THREE THROUGH
FIVE. IN FACT...NOW ALL THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS...THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE CYCLONE LOOPING WITHIN THIS REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD OR LONGER.
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
...JEANNE REFORMS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES... 75 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND VERY
NEAR THE CAICOS ISLANDS.
JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JEANNE.
CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...22.0 N... 72.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT41 KNHC 182034
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
JEANNE THAT WAS TRACKED SINCE IT MOVED AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA HAS RUN
WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AND IS DISSIPATING. SURFACE DATA
FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT A
NEW CENTER HAS REFORMED UNDER THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. THIS BY NO MEANS INDICATES A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAND
TURK. AN UPPER-LOW WHICH GLOBAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING TO MOVE
SOUTH AND WEAKEN...INSTEAD MOVED OVER THE CYCLONE AND AMPLYFIED...
DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS RESULTED IN WEAKENING. NOW THIS
NEW CENTER LOCATION IS UNDER A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYLONE OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GOES ALONG WITH BOTH SHIPS
AND THE GFDL MODELS.
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. IT IS ONLY BEING
SHIFTED EASTWARD DUE TO THE REFORMATION. JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THEREAFTER...A RATHER STRONG HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE THE
TROUGH AND DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH JEANNE MOVES...THE CYCLONE COULD
BE BLOCKED AND MOVE WESTWARD OR COULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH. SINCE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND
3 DAYS...THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP JEANNE NEARLY
STATIONARY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS AT DAYS THREE THROUGH
FIVE. IN FACT...NOW ALL THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS...THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE CYCLONE LOOPING WITHIN THIS REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD OR LONGER.
FORECASTER AVILA
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 190236
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
...JEANNE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 40 KM...EAST OF THE EASTERN END OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
JEANNE IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH... 9
KM/HR. WHILE SOME JUMPING AROUND OF THE CENTER IS POSSIBLE AS
JEANNE RE-ORGANIZES...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JEANNE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JEANNE.
CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.4 N... 72.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
...JEANNE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 40 KM...EAST OF THE EASTERN END OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
JEANNE IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH... 9
KM/HR. WHILE SOME JUMPING AROUND OF THE CENTER IS POSSIBLE AS
JEANNE RE-ORGANIZES...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JEANNE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 TO 13 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JEANNE.
CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.4 N... 72.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
Honey, here's hoping that your become even more "poorly" as time goes by. For those of you without a Southern background, "poorly" is southern for sick and often implies getting worse. I hope Jeanne becomes erratically extinct!
DIE JEANNE DIE
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 190839
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
...JEANNE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS PLANS TO DISCONTINUE ALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS EFFECTIVE AT 6 AM EDT...1000Z.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES... 220 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM...TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...23.2 N... 72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
...JEANNE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS PLANS TO DISCONTINUE ALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS EFFECTIVE AT 6 AM EDT...1000Z.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES... 220 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM...TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...23.2 N... 72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT41 KNHC 190839
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING JEANNE
AND THEY FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL...1500 FT...OF 53 KT ABOUT 50 N MI
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. USING A STANDARD REDUCTION FOR THIS
ALTITUDE GIVES A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 40-45 KT. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING AWAY FROM THE DISRUPTING INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE ESTABLISHING A
BETTER-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THEREFORE SOME
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS JEANNE EVENTUALLY RESTRENGTHENING INTO A
HURRICANE... AS DO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS
200 MB WIND FOREAST SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...IMPLYING
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR...OVER THE AREA WHERE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN 72 HOURS. JEANNE MAY HAVE TO OVERCOME A
RATHER HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ON ITS WAY TO REGAINING
HURRICANE STATUS.
BASED ON THE RECON FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/6. A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSUAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND TURN JEANNE NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER...IN 2-3 DAYS...THIS TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BYPASS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH IS PREDICTED...BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...
TO BLOCK THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF JEANNE...AND CAUSE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO EXECUTE A CLOCKWISE LOOP. THIS OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE WIDER LOOP THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT
HAS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA. IT SHOULD BE REPEATED THAT THIS IS A
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
SINCE JEANNE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND HAS
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST
QUADRANTS...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS INTENDS TO DISCONTINUE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS SHORTLY.
FORECASTER PASCH
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING JEANNE
AND THEY FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL...1500 FT...OF 53 KT ABOUT 50 N MI
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. USING A STANDARD REDUCTION FOR THIS
ALTITUDE GIVES A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 40-45 KT. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING AWAY FROM THE DISRUPTING INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE ESTABLISHING A
BETTER-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THEREFORE SOME
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS JEANNE EVENTUALLY RESTRENGTHENING INTO A
HURRICANE... AS DO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS
200 MB WIND FOREAST SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...IMPLYING
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR...OVER THE AREA WHERE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN 72 HOURS. JEANNE MAY HAVE TO OVERCOME A
RATHER HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ON ITS WAY TO REGAINING
HURRICANE STATUS.
BASED ON THE RECON FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/6. A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSUAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND TURN JEANNE NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER...IN 2-3 DAYS...THIS TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BYPASS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH IS PREDICTED...BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...
TO BLOCK THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF JEANNE...AND CAUSE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO EXECUTE A CLOCKWISE LOOP. THIS OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE WIDER LOOP THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT
HAS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA. IT SHOULD BE REPEATED THAT THIS IS A
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
SINCE JEANNE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND HAS
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST
QUADRANTS...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS INTENDS TO DISCONTINUE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS SHORTLY.
FORECASTER PASCH
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 192044
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES... 230 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR IN THE
BAHAMAS.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH... 85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...24.5 N... 72.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
5 PM Discussion
WTNT41 KNHC 192039
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS IN THE STORM AND REPORTS STEP FREQUENCY MICROWAVE
RADIOMETER SURFACE WINDS NEAR 45 KT ALONG WITH 996 MB CENTRAL
PRESSURE. THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW AND BANDING. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING JEANNE TO A
HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS THE GUIDANCE. THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO
SHOWS SOME RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING JEANNE IN 36
HOURS...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HOURS
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A HUGE LOW
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AFTER THAT...JEANNE
GETS FAIRLY CLOSE TO KARL AND THEY COULD INTERACT. IN ANY CASE...A
VERY SLOW MOTION IS INDICATED AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS
SHOWING A SLOW GENERALLY EASTWARD MOTION.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 24.5N 72.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 72.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 26.7N 71.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 27.3N 70.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 27.2N 69.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 26.5N 68.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 26.5N 68.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 27.0N 67.5W 65 KT
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES... 230 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR IN THE
BAHAMAS.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH... 85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...24.5 N... 72.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
5 PM Discussion
WTNT41 KNHC 192039
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS IN THE STORM AND REPORTS STEP FREQUENCY MICROWAVE
RADIOMETER SURFACE WINDS NEAR 45 KT ALONG WITH 996 MB CENTRAL
PRESSURE. THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW AND BANDING. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING JEANNE TO A
HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS THE GUIDANCE. THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO
SHOWS SOME RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING JEANNE IN 36
HOURS...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HOURS
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A HUGE LOW
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AFTER THAT...JEANNE
GETS FAIRLY CLOSE TO KARL AND THEY COULD INTERACT. IN ANY CASE...A
VERY SLOW MOTION IS INDICATED AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS
SHOWING A SLOW GENERALLY EASTWARD MOTION.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 24.5N 72.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 72.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 26.7N 71.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 27.3N 70.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 27.2N 69.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 26.5N 68.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 26.5N 68.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 27.0N 67.5W 65 KT
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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
...JEANNE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST OR ABOUT
325 MILES... 520 KM... EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...26.0 N... 71.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
...JEANNE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST OR ABOUT
325 MILES... 520 KM... EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...26.0 N... 71.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
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WTNT31 KNHC 201440
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
...JEANNE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST OR ABOUT
345 MILES... 560 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND JEANNE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.8 N... 71.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
11 AM Discussion
WTNT41 KNHC 201438
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/06. THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED TIGHT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE INNER-CORE REGION
OF JEANNE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE
INTERIOR PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST 2
HOURS...A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER AND HAS PULLED IT MORE NORTHWARD. SO THE FORWARD MOTION IS A
BLEND OF ALL THOSE WOBBLES. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE STEERING FLOW
IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE NHC MODELS TO REMAIN WEAK...EXCEPT FOR
THE GFS AND THE GFS-BASED BAM MODELS...AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
THAT IS FORECAST TO PICK UP HURRICANE IVAN RUNS OFF AND LEAVES
JEANNE BEHIND. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF JEANNE IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION BY JEANNE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTLIER MODELS ARE THE GFS AND
BAM MODELS...WHICH TAKE JEANNE DUE EAST...AND THE NAVY COAMPS MODEL
...WHICH MOVES JEANNE DUE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT TO PUT A SMALL
ANTICYCLONIC LOOP IN THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
JEANNE HAS GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN
HURRICANE STATUS AS EARLY AS TODAY IF IT CAN MIX OUT THE DRY AIR
THAT HAS BEEN WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. AFTERWARDS...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTHWARD AND INDUCES WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST AND UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1500Z 26.8N 71.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 27.3N 71.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 27.6N 70.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 27.5N 69.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 27.0N 69.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 26.5N 68.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 69.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 26.5N 69.0W 60 KT
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
...JEANNE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST OR ABOUT
345 MILES... 560 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND JEANNE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.8 N... 71.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
11 AM Discussion
WTNT41 KNHC 201438
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/06. THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED TIGHT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE INNER-CORE REGION
OF JEANNE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE
INTERIOR PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST 2
HOURS...A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER AND HAS PULLED IT MORE NORTHWARD. SO THE FORWARD MOTION IS A
BLEND OF ALL THOSE WOBBLES. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE STEERING FLOW
IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE NHC MODELS TO REMAIN WEAK...EXCEPT FOR
THE GFS AND THE GFS-BASED BAM MODELS...AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
THAT IS FORECAST TO PICK UP HURRICANE IVAN RUNS OFF AND LEAVES
JEANNE BEHIND. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF JEANNE IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION BY JEANNE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTLIER MODELS ARE THE GFS AND
BAM MODELS...WHICH TAKE JEANNE DUE EAST...AND THE NAVY COAMPS MODEL
...WHICH MOVES JEANNE DUE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT TO PUT A SMALL
ANTICYCLONIC LOOP IN THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
JEANNE HAS GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN
HURRICANE STATUS AS EARLY AS TODAY IF IT CAN MIX OUT THE DRY AIR
THAT HAS BEEN WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. AFTERWARDS...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTHWARD AND INDUCES WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST AND UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1500Z 26.8N 71.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 27.3N 71.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 27.6N 70.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 27.5N 69.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 27.0N 69.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 26.5N 68.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 69.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 26.5N 69.0W 60 KT
HumanCookie
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WTNT31 KNHC 202035
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
...JEANNE STRENGTHENS BACK INTO A HURRICANE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT 370
MILES... 595 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR... AND
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...27.4 N... 71.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
5 PM Discussion
WTNT41 KNHC 202048
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 035/06. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON
FIX POSITIONS...ALONG WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE JEANNE HAS FINALLY MADE THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
...AND MAY EVEN BE MOVING MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST. NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND THE
GFS-BASED BAM MODELS...THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL COLLAPSE IN
24-48 HOURS AS A DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE MOVES
EASTWARD AND PICKS UP HURRICANE KARL WHILE LEAVING JEANNE BEHIND. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE
AND BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION UNTIL ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVES IN AND REPLACES THE RIDGE IN 96-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND MAINTAINS THE
SMALL ANTICYCLONIC LOOP IN THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
JEANNE HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP GOOD BANDING FEATURES AND THE
INNER-CORE REGION HAS BECOME TIGHTER. A BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS
DEVELOPED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND RECON REPORTS INDICATE A 20-30
NMI CLOSED EYE. A 20/2003Z RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 93 KT AT 5000
FT AND A 983 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE JUSTIFIES INCREASING THE INTENSITY
TO 75 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. AFTERWARDS...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTHWARD AND INDUCES WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 27.4N 71.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 27.6N 70.7W 80 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 27.7N 69.9W 85 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 27.6N 69.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 27.2N 68.8W 75 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 26.5N 69.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 27.0N 69.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/1800Z 28.0N 68.0W 55 KT
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
...JEANNE STRENGTHENS BACK INTO A HURRICANE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT 370
MILES... 595 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR... AND
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...27.4 N... 71.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
5 PM Discussion
WTNT41 KNHC 202048
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 035/06. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON
FIX POSITIONS...ALONG WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE JEANNE HAS FINALLY MADE THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
...AND MAY EVEN BE MOVING MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST. NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND THE
GFS-BASED BAM MODELS...THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL COLLAPSE IN
24-48 HOURS AS A DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE MOVES
EASTWARD AND PICKS UP HURRICANE KARL WHILE LEAVING JEANNE BEHIND. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE
AND BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION UNTIL ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVES IN AND REPLACES THE RIDGE IN 96-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND MAINTAINS THE
SMALL ANTICYCLONIC LOOP IN THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
JEANNE HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP GOOD BANDING FEATURES AND THE
INNER-CORE REGION HAS BECOME TIGHTER. A BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS
DEVELOPED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND RECON REPORTS INDICATE A 20-30
NMI CLOSED EYE. A 20/2003Z RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 93 KT AT 5000
FT AND A 983 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE JUSTIFIES INCREASING THE INTENSITY
TO 75 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. AFTERWARDS...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTHWARD AND INDUCES WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 27.4N 71.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 27.6N 70.7W 80 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 27.7N 69.9W 85 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 27.6N 69.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 27.2N 68.8W 75 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 26.5N 69.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 27.0N 69.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/1800Z 28.0N 68.0W 55 KT
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 210831
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004
...JEANNE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...NO
IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 445
MILES... 715 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. STEERING
CURRENT ARE WEAKENING...AND JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...27.6 N... 70.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
5 AM Discussion
WTNT41 KNHC 210830
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF JEAN HAS FALLEN TO 972 MB...WITH
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT AT 850 MB IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A 45 NM WIDE EYE...OPEN TO
THE SOUTH...WHICH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IS MOSTLY CLOUDED
OVER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 65 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
80 KT BASED MAINLY ON THE 11 MB PRESSURE FALL SINCE THE LAST
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/5. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT JEANNE SHOW
SLOW AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT...MODEL DIVERGENCE
IS AGAIN PRESENT. THE GFS STILL WANT TO TAKE JEANNE OFF TO THE
EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE SHIFTED
CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST OF THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS...CALLING FOR
JEANNE TO LOOP WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEITHER OF THESE MODELS INITIALLY MOVE JEANNE
AS FAR EAST AS IT IS NOW. THE GFDL IS IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...
CALLING FOR A LESS DRASTIC WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE LOOP. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CHANGE PHILOSOPHY TO THAT A LOOP WESTWARD
AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE UKMET
AND THE NOGAPS. THIS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND GUNA.
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATES 20 KT
OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS JEANNE AT THIS TIME. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE OBSERVED DEEPENING SHOULD SOON CEASE IF IT HAS
NOT ALREADY DONE SO. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THE SHEAR SHOULD
PERSIST FOR 24-36 HR AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THIS COULD ALLOW
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IF JEANNE DOES NOT SHEAR OFF BEFORE
THEN...INGEST THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH...OR
UPWELL COLD WATER UNDERNEATH IT WHILE MAKING ITS SLOW LOOP. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AT 48 HR ON
THE ASSUMPTION THAT NONE OF THESE THINGS WILL HAPPEN. AFTER 72
HR...SHIPS FORECASTS AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE
MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR
JEANNE AT THAT TIME RANGING FROM FAVORABLE TO UNFAVORABLE...AND IT
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHICH MODEL HAS THE BEST GRASP OF THE
EVOLUTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS LEAN ON THE SHIPS
MODEL AND CALL FOR WEAKENING AT 96-120 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 27.6N 70.0W 80 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 27.6N 69.6W 80 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 27.1N 69.3W 80 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 26.5N 69.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 26.3N 70.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 26.6N 71.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 27.5N 72.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 29.0N 73.0W 65 KT
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004
...JEANNE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...NO
IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 445
MILES... 715 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. STEERING
CURRENT ARE WEAKENING...AND JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...27.6 N... 70.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
5 AM Discussion
WTNT41 KNHC 210830
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF JEAN HAS FALLEN TO 972 MB...WITH
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT AT 850 MB IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A 45 NM WIDE EYE...OPEN TO
THE SOUTH...WHICH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IS MOSTLY CLOUDED
OVER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 65 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
80 KT BASED MAINLY ON THE 11 MB PRESSURE FALL SINCE THE LAST
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/5. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT JEANNE SHOW
SLOW AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT...MODEL DIVERGENCE
IS AGAIN PRESENT. THE GFS STILL WANT TO TAKE JEANNE OFF TO THE
EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE SHIFTED
CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST OF THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS...CALLING FOR
JEANNE TO LOOP WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEITHER OF THESE MODELS INITIALLY MOVE JEANNE
AS FAR EAST AS IT IS NOW. THE GFDL IS IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...
CALLING FOR A LESS DRASTIC WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE LOOP. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CHANGE PHILOSOPHY TO THAT A LOOP WESTWARD
AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE UKMET
AND THE NOGAPS. THIS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND GUNA.
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATES 20 KT
OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS JEANNE AT THIS TIME. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE OBSERVED DEEPENING SHOULD SOON CEASE IF IT HAS
NOT ALREADY DONE SO. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THE SHEAR SHOULD
PERSIST FOR 24-36 HR AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THIS COULD ALLOW
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IF JEANNE DOES NOT SHEAR OFF BEFORE
THEN...INGEST THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH...OR
UPWELL COLD WATER UNDERNEATH IT WHILE MAKING ITS SLOW LOOP. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AT 48 HR ON
THE ASSUMPTION THAT NONE OF THESE THINGS WILL HAPPEN. AFTER 72
HR...SHIPS FORECASTS AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE
MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR
JEANNE AT THAT TIME RANGING FROM FAVORABLE TO UNFAVORABLE...AND IT
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHICH MODEL HAS THE BEST GRASP OF THE
EVOLUTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS LEAN ON THE SHIPS
MODEL AND CALL FOR WEAKENING AT 96-120 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 27.6N 70.0W 80 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 27.6N 69.6W 80 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 27.1N 69.3W 80 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 26.5N 69.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 26.3N 70.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 26.6N 71.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 27.5N 72.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 29.0N 73.0W 65 KT
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