Official Hurricane JEANNE Thread

[HumanCookie]

WTNT31 KNHC 212030
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004

...JEANNE NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND REMAINS NO IMMEDIATE
THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 515
MILES... 830 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.

JEANNE IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...27.3 N... 68.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

5 PM Discussion

WTNT41 KNHC 212046
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES...INDICATE JEANNE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE RAGGED EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY CLOUD-COVERED AND THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS T4.5...OR 77KT...FROM TAFB AND
SAB. AS SUCH...THE INTENSITY ALSO REMAINS AT 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECON FLIGHT WILL INVESTIGATE JEANNE AGAIN AT 22/06Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 140/05. AGAIN...THERE REMAINS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW...EXCEPT FOR THE
GFS...ON JEANNE MAKING A SLOW ANTICYCLONIC LOOP DURING THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS BEFORE MOVING NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD. WHILE
THE GFS IS STILL THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER MODEL...EVEN IT HAS
CONTINUED TO SHIFT ITS TRACK FARTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE REST OF THE
OTHER MODELS. THE DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF
JEANNE AS A LARGE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TWO FORECASTS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS JEANNE IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS
THAN 10 KT IN 36-48 HOURS...SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME. BY 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS JEANNE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG 200 MB ANTICYCLONE. THEREFORE...GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. HWOEVERE...IF JEANNE SHOULD MOVE A LITTLE
FASTER AND A FARTHER WEST LIKE THE NOGAPS MODEL IS FORECASTING...
THEN THE HURRICANE WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN EVEN MORE THAN FORECAST
SINCE IT WOULD BE UNDER STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 27.3N 68.8W 80 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 27.0N 68.7W 80 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 26.5N 68.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 26.2N 69.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 26.4N 69.6W 85 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 27.3N 71.3W 80 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 29.0N 73.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 32.0N 74.5W 60 KT

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT31 KNHC 220833
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

...JEANNE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST OR ABOUT 525
MILES... 845 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD SOUTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...26.6 N... 68.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

5 AM Discussion

WTNT41 KNHC 220831
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 968 MB AT 0609Z WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 83
KT AT 700 MB IN THE SOUTHWESTERN EYEWALL. A DROPSONDE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL SUGGESTED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 80 KT.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 77 KT...AND
THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 80 KT. ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE 15-20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF DRY AIR
SURROUNDING JEANNE. SOME DRY AIR MAY HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHWESTERN
EYEWALL BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 180/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH NORTHEAST OF JEANNE AND A LARGE-DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN
THE TWO FEATURES TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THE RIDGE BUILD OR MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES BY DAYS 4-5. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD START JEANNE ON A
GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK IN 24 HR OR SO...THEN CAUSE A MORE NORTHWARD
MOTION AFTER 72-96 HR. TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD DURING THE FIRST 36 HR...THEN IS SHIFTED
CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DURING THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS POSSIBLE THE FORECAST TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED FARTHER WEST ON SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.

WHILE THE TRACK FORECAST IS MORE CLEAR-CUT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE CURRENT SHEAR
MAY SUBSIDE AS A CUT-OFF LOW OR SHARP CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FORMS
NEAR FLORIDA IN ABOUT 24 HR. INDEED...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVER JEANNE. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT TOTALLY
CLEAR WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT AS AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL OR JUST
CHANGE THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR. BY 48 HR... AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER JEANNE PROVIDING A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS...
EVEN EXPERIMENTAL ONES...FORECAST AN INTENSITY ABOVE 95 KT. THE
REASONS FOR THIS ARE UNCLEAR...BUT IT COULD BE THAT THE DRY AIR IS
RESTRAINING THE DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
MODEST STRENGTHENING...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE JEANNE
GET STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN 72-96 HR. THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE SHEAR IN THE 96-120 HR TIMEFRAME...SO THE
FORECAST WILL SHOW LESS WEAKENING AT THAT TIME.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL
WHICH PART OF THE COAST...IF ANY...MAY BE AFFECTED BY JEANNE.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 26.6N 68.6W 80 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 26.3N 68.8W 80 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 26.1N 69.5W 85 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 26.1N 70.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 26.3N 71.8W 85 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 27.0N 74.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 29.0N 77.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 32.0N 78.0W 65 KT

 

[MarkRG]

Well.

As Miss Jasmine has said, this is the strangest weather pattern I've ever seen.

At this point, there certainly is the possibility for this hurricane to move west.

However, the window of opportunity is not very big, and is certainly not long enough to allow very much westerly movement. It will get turned north by the upper level winds for sure. And once it goes north at all it will be over cooler and cooler ocean which will sap any strength it has left. I still doubt it will make landfall anywhere, and expect it to get pushed east as well as it goes north, moreso than what's being predicted at this point.

 

[CM_Mom]

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHICH PART OF THE COAST...IF ANY...MAY BE AFFECTED BY JEANNE.

None is the only acceptable number. This is the wierdest hurricane I've ever seen.

GO AWAY Jeanne

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I saw another weird hurricane a few years ago, it hit bermuda once and then did a loop-d-loop and hit it again--Jeannes behavior reminds of that.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

I think the NHC knows we are getting bored with this storm and is trying to get us to watch it again.

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT31 KNHC 221426
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

...JEANNE STRENGTHENS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
...EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD BY THURSDAY...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST OR ABOUT 530 MILES
...855 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD SOUTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.3 N... 68.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

11 AM Discussion

WTNT41 KNHC 221425
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

SINCE THE EARLIER HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT THIS MORNING...THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AS INDICATED BY A CONSENSUS DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0...OR 90 KT. HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS BECOME
CLOUD COVERED AGAIN AND 3-HR AVERAGE AODT VALUES ARE T4.6...OR 80
KT FROM CIMSS...AND T4.8...OR 85 KT...FROM TAFB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
JEANNE HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LAST RECON CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORT OF 968 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 180/4. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING. JEANNE HAS MADE A TURN
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION. A DEEP-LAYER HIGH CENTERED OVER OHIO WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY MOVING
EASTWARD. OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR BERMUDA. THE
CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH/RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE
AND MOVE JEANNE NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AND THEN MORE NORTHWARD
BY 96 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...WITH ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL BEING THE WESTERNMOST
OUTLIER IN TAKING JEANNE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS
SCENARIO IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME DUE TO ITS MUCH
SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 5 KT IN 24
HOURS...SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR AT THAT TIME.
HOWEVER...THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS JEANNE UNTIL AROUND 72 HOURS WHEN JEANNE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN PORTION OF A SYNOPTIC-SCALE
ANTICYCLONE WITH A SHARP DIGGING TROUGH TO THE EAST. THAT PATTERN
WOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT
VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURROUND JEANNE AT THAT TIME. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSERVATIVE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL...BUT IF NO DRY AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION
THEN JEANNE COULD EASILY BE 5-10 KT STRONGER THAN FORECAST.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 26.3N 68.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 68.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 26.0N 69.8W 90 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 26.0N 70.9W 90 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.3N 72.3W 90 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 27.5N 75.2W 90 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 29.5N 77.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 33.0N 77.5W 70 KT

 

[mamalle]

not looking good for the east coast of south fla this weekend or the bahamas

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1104W5+GIF/230918W5.gif