Offical Hurricane Frances thread!

[mrsnesbit]

I just spoke to Disney cruise line on the phone and was told that the 9/2 cruise is the cruise to nowhere. No changes as of yet 9:30 pm eastern time have been made to the 9/4 or 9/5 cruises. They will making a decision by 1:00pm tomorrow(Thursday). I am on the 9/5.

 

[Kalypso]

I "wonder" (pardon the pun) if they will offer the $300 shipboard credit to all of the cruises that end up being "cruises to nowhere"?? anybody have any thoughts on this?

 

[alexandrew]

$300.00 ....how laughable....

 

[cjsmith]

Originally posted by Cap
Here's Intellicast's storm track.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/US...harts&product=HurTrack1&prodnav=none&pid=none

Thanks Cap for the website. ABC just broke in again and showed the it hitting low in Florida, where the heck are they getting their info. It needs to just go away........

 

[QueenTrident]

I've been watching Weather Channel obsessively, thinking of you all. Prayers and pixie dust to everyone, living in Florida or crusing from it. Please take care and let us know as soon as you can how you fared.

BTW, have you seen the satellite image of Frances. It's HUGE! I don't know how CC or any of the Bahamian islands are going to survive.

 

[Krystina'sMommy]

Originally posted by Kalypso
I "wonder" (pardon the pun) if they will offer the $300 shipboard credit to all of the cruises that end up being "cruises to nowhere"?? anybody have any thoughts on this?

I guess they would have to wouldn't they? I mean they would have ALOT of unhappy passengers if they gave one cruise to nowhere 300.00 stateroom credit and not the other. Does it make sense that the compensation coincides with the # of nights (3night Wonder = $300)? I'm on the 4night Wonder (on the 19th) and I just want to make it to the ship!!!

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Well, we are finishing up our preps--hubby is bushed. He has "given up"--we have our french doors and a kitchen window left--we will put boards up on the inside of the doors--but it is a done deal--we need a better drill!

Melbourne International Airport is closing tomorrow night after it's final flight in the evening.

Hurricane Track--new info at 10pm on Fox news
still points it towards my area

Our vehicles are just about loaded.

Thank you for letting me be a part of this thread--I feel like an honorary DCL DISer--even though I haven't been on a Mouse Boat Cruise--someday maybe....

My South Beach Diet has been crashed--I indulged in cookies--but I had a sugar stopper with them--so I still followed the principles ...I just couldn't take it anymore!!!!!

I will be at Wilderness Lodge tomorrow trying to relax after all these preps. Perhaps I can make a door sign in my spare time teeth: ) practice for that cruise....

Lisa Loves Pooh is signing off

 

[Kalypso]

I just talked to DBF and told him that more than likely we will be on a cruise to nowhere on the 9/9 Wonder if Frances keeps up the current track - but we are just going to make the best of it and hope we all get the shipboard credit - I think you're right...I would think they would have to give it to all the cruises...

 

[WisconsinDisneyGirl]

Just got off the phonw with DCL. No changes as of yet. How can there be no changes? All the info given on every website and TV are calling for one big hit. At this point all I want to do is rebook for next Sunday (12th) with no rebooking fees. That is all I ask. The last DCL I booked back for June 1998 fell through. The ship was still in Italy. They gave us nothing. I hope this time is different. They have 6 years experience now. I don't mean to sound bad. I just want to get a some answers so I can make alternate plans. So many people have much bigger problems than I do. At this point I don't want to come to FL (right now). I don't think FL needs anymore folks from out of town at this point. Stay safe and make good choices.

 

[mushck]

Originally posted by steineymel
I'm a really bad decision maker LOL!

We are supposed to be flying into WDW 9/7 thru the 15th. We are using frequent flyer miles and at this very moment we have the option if moving back our arrival until the 9th without a penalty. Normally it would be $300. Should we arrive on the 9th instead of the 7th incase there is massive damage to WDW? opinions please!!!!

Melodi

Melodi - Move your travel dates if possible. With cancelled flights and power outages it will probably be much less stressfull to travel a couple of days later. I don't think there will be "massive damage" to WDW, but there will be a dissruption of services in the area. They are already telling us to expect power outages for a couple of days. WDW should have power but if you want to go off property things could be closed and gas may be hard to find.

HTH

 

[Debbie H]

My SIL is at Kennedy hurricane proofing his satellite that is due to go up in October. (yeah, my SIL is a rocket scientist) NASA had him fly down yesterday "STAT" to hurricane proof it. They are done and he tried to get a flight back to Baltimore before his scheduled flight on Friday evening. There are absolutely no flights out. He was able to secure a room though at the airport.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Hurricane watch up for East coast florida...

Now I am really signing off

 

[sillylxix]

Carolyn,
Check out http://www.accuweather.com , http://www.weather.com , http://intellicast.com and http://www.weatherunderground.com

Jan,
The mushrooms are know as bollards if shore/pier based, dolphins if in the water

Lisa,
Be safe, enjoy Wilderness Lodge

(sorry for the delay was awaiting activation)


Anyone know what is what with the current Magic sailing? Orlando Sentinel say's it is due back Saturday at PC though the actual port calls have been changed around enroute (Frances is due there at that time lol) ... Am supposed to be meeting a friend when she disembarks (we were going to stay on the coast for a day away).


My Current Position:
N 28° 50.896'
W 81° 54.169'

Distance To WDW:
55 Miles

 

[CM_Mom]

Hey Friends,

For those of you concerned about why DCL hasn't made any decisions, the Hurricane Specialist on the Weather Channel said that they just DON'T KNOW where Frances will make landfall. He cautioned people to pay attention to the "potential strike cone" and NOT assume that Frances will go right up the middle of the cone. He said it's still too early to tell whether she will turn westward and make landfall in the Miami area, turn northward early and make landfall in the Carolinas or turn northward late and go right up the coast with 130 - 140 MPH winds.

Maybe we should be saying

Turn NORTH SOON Baby Turn NORTH SOON!

Lisa Loves Pooh, I can continue to post the reports from NOAA at least in the evenings and early morning. Can only post at lunchtime at work.

Let's keep up the prayers for safety for everyone.

For those concerned about the folks on the Magic, that's the safest place to be right now and they're having a great time.

 

[JLSE50]

Originally posted by sillylxix
Jan,
The mushrooms are know as bollards if shore/pier based, dolphins if in the water

Thanks, I will write it down.

Jan

 

[inkkognito]

Although Frances should be gone for our 9/9 sailing, I'm wondering about the effect of any damage. Let's all sing the Byrds song that I think is most appropriate at this time: "Turn, Turn, Turn!"
Barb

 

[tifandjim]

:thewave: TURN!! TURN!!

SWIM TO THE NORTH!! TO THE NORTH!!

 

[tap & dap]

PORT CANAVERAL - Due to the approach of Hurricane Frances, the Canaveral Port Authority administrative office will be closed Thursday and Friday, September 2 and 3. The Port Authority administrative office is scheduled to re-open on Tuesday, September 7. This date could change depending on the severity of the storm.

The evacuation of the Canaveral Harbor must be completed and all vessels must be out of the Harbor no later than 10:00 a.m. on Friday, September 3rd at which time the harbor will be closed. Failure to remove a vessel can result in a fine of $1,000 per hour, in accordance with Florida Statutes. The Port will work in cooperation with the Brevard Office of Emergency Management and the U.S. Coast Guard to determine when it will be safe to re-open.

Schedules for the cruise ships are subject to change based on the movement of the hurricane. Cruise passengers should stay in constant contact with the cruise lines.

Click here for a copy of the Port's evacuation order.

For the most current information on Port operations, please call the public advisory information line at 321-783-7831 and listen for the prompts. All information is subject to change

 

[CM_Mom]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 020244
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED SEP 01 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES BATTERING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH... INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SOME OR ALL OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THURSDAY MORNING. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS
IS ALSO ABOUT 585 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE LARGE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRANCES REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH...220 KM/HR ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...GRAND TURK ISLAND REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 72 MPH...115 KM/HR...AS THE EYE OF FRANCES PASSED TO THE NORTHWEST. HAM RADIO REPORTS INDICATE THAT DAMAGE TO TREES AND ROOFS HAS OCCURRED ON THE ISLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHRA ISLAND...AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...22.6 N... 72.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

 

[CM_Mom]

I changed the case to upper and lower so maybe it's easier to read - although still written in WEATHER speak.

000
Wtnt41 knhc 020225
Tcdat1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004

Recon this afternoon and evening indicated the central pressure had decreased to 939 mb. A dropsonde at 01/1904z indicated winds of 154 Kt...or 177 mph...at the 850 mb level. The highest 700 mb recon flight-level wind at 2210z was 134 kt...equal to about a 121-kt Surface wind. Based on this information...Frances is being held at 120 kt...which may be a little conservative.

The initial motion is 295/12. However...there has been considerable wobble in the track the past 12 hours due to the eyewall replacement cycles that have been occurring. Frances has been moving west-northwestward for the past 24 hours under the influence of the subtropical ridge to the north...which is expected to remain intact through at least 48 hours. The Gulfstream-iv jet and an AFRES c-130 have been releasing dropsondes around the periphery of Frances. The sonde data has produced some interesting and disturbing results. The height data for the various pressure levels...compared to 18z surrounding upper-air data...appear to be at least 20 meters too low. However...the wind data clearly indicate a mid-tropospheric high pressure center near 30n 75w...or about 500 nmi northwest of Frances with a ridge axis extending west-southwestward across north Florida and into the northeast gulf of mexico. In the short term...this would suggest that Frances should continue moving at 295 or even 290 degrees motion for the next 24 hours or so. Also...00z upper-air data indicate that the 18z NOGAPS and 12z UKMET models have verified the 00z 500 mb ridge and heights the best...while the 18z GFS and GFDL models were much too weak...at least 20 meters too low...with the strength of the ridge. Since the 00z model runs will have the new GPS dropsonde data included in those runs for the 06z advisory...no significant change is being made to the previous forecast track. However...with high pressure located to the Northwest of Frances...I would not be surprised to the 00z model tracks shift a little more westward.

Frances is expected to move over warmer water near and within the Bahama islands chain in 24-48 hours. Given the already impressive outflow pattern...some additional strengthening seems plausible. Also...the very dry mid-level air...30-40 percent humidity...that Frances has been traversing through and ingesting over the past 5 days is forecast to increase to more than 60 percent in 36-60hr...which may also help with the intensification process.

Forecaster Stewart

Forecast positions and max winds

Initial 02/0300z 22.6n 72.0w 120 kt
12hr vt 02/1200z 23.5n 73.7w 120 kt
24hr vt 03/0000z 24.7n 75.6w 125 kt
36hr vt 03/1200z 25.8n 77.3w 125 kt
48hr vt 04/0000z 26.6n 78.5w 125 kt
72hr vt 05/0000z 28.0n 81.0w 105 kt...inland
96hr vt 06/0000z 30.0n 83.0w 35 kt...inland
120hr vt 07/0000z 33.5n 85.0w 25 kt...inland



I don't like this............................