Offical Hurricane Frances thread!

[WisconsinDisneyGirl]

To all the FL people who have posted with updates---thank you! You have given me some good ideas about what I should do. You have been more helpful than DCL and the airlines at this point. I think I am going to fly in Friday and not Sat. for our Sunday cruise. I just have to figure out where the heck to stay as we have no idea where the boat will be docking. I have a list a mile long with phone calls I have to make and get plan B and C ready. I am glad that I put aside extra money for this trip as "just in case money". I am glad that I always do that for everything in my life.

I also want to say that I am praying for all the people in the line of this storm. I feel very selfish for my actions as I am so worried about my own vacation. This vacation is not nearly as important as the people in the line of the storm. Vacations can be rescheduled but a familys house have to be rebuilt and lives can be lost. That is what is really important. I just want to say that even though I vent on this thread I am also very worried about the people in the path of the storm. God Bless you all.

 

[Bigbaby]

Originally posted by WisconsinDisneyGirl

I also want to say that I am praying for all the people in the line of this storm. I feel very selfish for my actions as I am so worried about my own vacation. This vacation is not nearly as important as the people in the line of the storm. Vacations can be rescheduled but a familys house have to be rebuilt and lives can be lost. That is what is really important. I just want to say that even though I vent on this thread I am also very worried about the people in the path of the storm. God Bless you all.

Ditto... you took the words out of my mouth. I forget to mention this in my last post.

 

[cjsmith]

Originally posted by WisconsinDisneyGirl
To all the FL people who have posted with updates---thank you! You have given me some good ideas about what I should do. You have been more helpful than DCL and the airlines at this point. I think I am going to fly in Friday and not Sat. for our Sunday cruise. I just have to figure out where the heck to stay as we have no idea where the boat will be docking. I have a list a mile long with phone calls I have to make and get plan B and C ready. I am glad that I put aside extra money for this trip as "just in case money". I am glad that I always do that for everything in my life.

I also want to say that I am praying for all the people in the line of this storm. I feel very selfish for my actions as I am so worried about my own vacation. This vacation is not nearly as important as the people in the line of the storm. Vacations can be rescheduled but a familys house have to be rebuilt and lives can be lost. That is what is really important. I just want to say that even though I vent on this thread I am also very worried about the people in the path of the storm. God Bless you all.

How about booking a room in the Orlando area? That way you in the middle between Port Canaveral and Tampa if DCL goes there. The only other ports that I can see the ships using is Miami or Fort Lauderdale, but that remains to be seen. Remember, Orlando will be an okay drive to any of these ports and I assume that you were flying into there anyway.

Good luck with your travel plans and thanks for thinking of those who live in Florida, you have a great outlook on life!

 

[Miss Jasmine]

If you are wondering where to stay since you don't know where DCL will be docking, can I suggest WDW? If you are flying into MCO then it is close, and then it's not too far to Tampa if you are renting a car.

However, I have to caution that because if the Hurricane hits around the Ft. Pierce area on the east coast there is a chance it could go through Orlando. Right now predications are it would roll through that area around 2 AM Sunday. I am sure you would know by then where you will catch the Wonder.

Thank you for your concerns. I have about 5 contigency plans going right now myself.

 

[cjsmith]

Originally posted by WisconsinDisneyGirl
To all the FL people who have posted with updates---thank you! You have given me some good ideas about what I should do. You have been more helpful than DCL and the airlines at this point. I think I am going to fly in Friday and not Sat. for our Sunday cruise. I just have to figure out where the heck to stay as we have no idea where the boat will be docking. I have a list a mile long with phone calls I have to make and get plan B and C ready. I am glad that I put aside extra money for this trip as "just in case money". I am glad that I always do that for everything in my life.

I also want to say that I am praying for all the people in the line of this storm. I feel very selfish for my actions as I am so worried about my own vacation. This vacation is not nearly as important as the people in the line of the storm. Vacations can be rescheduled but a familys house have to be rebuilt and lives can be lost. That is what is really important. I just want to say that even though I vent on this thread I am also very worried about the people in the path of the storm. God Bless you all.

How about booking a room in the Orlando area? That way you in the middle between Port Canaveral and Tampa if DCL goes there. The only other ports that I can see the ships using is Miami or Fort Lauderdale, but that remains to be seen. Remember, Orlando will be an okay drive to any of these ports and I assume that you were flying into there anyway.

Good luck with your travel plans and thanks for thinking of those who live in Florida, you have a great outlook on life!

 

[Doctor P]

It appears that the expected path has indeed begun to turn to the north--they are showing the direct hit now to be in the Jacksonville area on the NOAA site.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/311453W5.gif

 

[CRSNDSNY]

Originally posted by Doctor P
It appears that the expected path has indeed begun to turn to the north--they are showing the direct hit now to be in the Jacksonville area on the NOAA site.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/311453W5.gif

In your opinion, how do you think this will affect Friday evening flights into MCO?

 

[cjsmith]

Originally posted by Doctor P
It appears that the expected path has indeed begun to turn to the north--they are showing the direct hit now to be in the Jacksonville area on the NOAA site.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/311453W5.gif

Keep in mind that is just the projected possible path of the hurricane. After living through Charley, you can see that the hurricane didn't follow the projected path and turned at the last minute.
Everyone should keep an eye on this hurricane and plan contingency plans accordingly. It is far too early in the game to know where it's going to hit at all. By Thursday, everyone will have a better idea and I don't care what the maps show, you don't know exactly where it's going until the day of the hurricane.

 

[Doctor P]

I know. I have been through a hurricane before, and I know Charley was kind of funky. But I also have faith in the probability models which are consistently showing the hard northern turn (it's the timing that is going to really determine where it hits). We're prepared for almost anything, but I need a glimmer of hope for a relatively uneventful trip down and embarkation. Once I am on the ship, I don't much care where we go, LOL!

 

[mum of two pirates]

I too would stay at wdw, we just got a postcard in the mail for $49. a night. Then you could visit all the hotels, maybe use the pools and ride the rail. Spend some time in downtown disney- isn't it free as it is just shopping and such. It would just add one more day of fun, just try not to spend all of your fun money there on stuff before your cruise. Have a great ,still wish it was me going.

mum of two

 

[fknaut]

See the lastest track here:

Courtesy of http://www.noaa.gov

How does Castaway Cay prepare?

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Keep in mind--sale rooms are getting more difficult to find at the value resorts b/c us Floridians are booking them up I got the All Star Sports preferred room for FRR of $69--only rack rate was available elsewhere in the values. Also, Orlando is convenient for the turnpike access and should provide a nice drive to Miami (tough to get into Miami sometimes via 95).



11AM advisory--keep in mind, though the models have changed, Frances is still moving WEST. For the Charley experts--all earlier models showed paths straight through central Florida and as he got close, projections moved further west and right at the end shifted right back east to the original plotted path. So optimism is great, but the hurricane can be fickle!

000
WTNT31 KNHC 311455
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...CORE OF POWERFULL HURRICANE FRANCES EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO...HEADING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH 135 MPH
WINDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES
ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM
CAY AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST.
JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY AND
HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PUNTA GORDA.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST
MAARTEN...ST EUSTATIUS...SABA AND GUADELOUPE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
PASSING PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OUTER RAINBANDS
OF FRANCES WILL AFFECT THESE ISLANDS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
FRANCES TODAY.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH COAST OF THE
ISLANDS IN THE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...20.0 N... 64.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA


$$

 

[Miss Jasmine]

I left a cheap room. I went with a moderate with an AP rate.

Thursday will be the telling day I believe.

 

[marylee15]

I just saw on the weather channel at 1:50 P.M. or so that the millibars (pressure) is lowering and the reporter says when the pressure lowers it increases the intensity of the storm. This is really scary. Just keep watching

 

[pogopossum]

i just got through talking to cm at dcl, she was pretty helpful, but, and i don't know who is the source, she advised that the prediction has been moved up and now frances is expected in florida on friday, and that we should look into moving our flight to thursday. this would be good news in that this might allow departure from pc, but the hassle of trying to reroute flight without incurring cost is nerve wracking in that we have to wait for announcements of closures and weather predictions.

on a good note it looks like she steered to the north of sj and st and is only sending slight rain and a few gusts of wind at the islands.

 

[cjsmith]

Originally posted by pogopossum
i just got through talking to cm at dcl, she was pretty helpful, but, and i don't know who is the source, she advised that the prediction has been moved up and now frances is expected in florida on friday, and that we should look into moving our flight to thursday. this would be good news in that this might allow departure from pc, but the hassle of trying to reroute flight without incurring cost is nerve wracking in that we have to wait for announcements of closures and weather predictions.

on a good note it looks like she steered to the north of sj and st and is only sending slight rain and a few gusts of wind at the islands.

I don't know about frances moving in on Friday. That is not what the hurricane center in Miami shows or what we're being told on local news down here in Florida. I have not seen any predictions like that on any site. The current map that was updated at 2 pm shows Saturday.

 

[DuncanLL]

Does anyone have a map of the Bahamas that shows the location of Castaway Cay? I know the coordinates for Castaway, but I've been looking at the Hurricane Center's tracking map and can't figure out exactly where it is.

Anyone???

Linda

 

[TexasGirl]

Disney cruise line called ME about an hour ago. I am on the Sat, Sept 4th Eastern cruise.

She said Disney was contacting all the passengers. They wanted to know if I had a cell phone number, the flight I would be taking, the hotel I would be staying at. She said they would be contacting us, Friday or Saturday or Thursday and needed alternate #'s.

I asked if any decisions had been made and she said that it was still too early. She relayed that "they" (whoever that is) had been in almost constant meetings today talking about the situation and contengencies.

Anyway...thought this was interesting. I don't know if anyone else has been contacted?

 

[selvey]

Surely they wouldn't wait until Friday to tell us - especially if we have to switch ports and drive a long way???

 

[mrsltg]

Surely they wouldn't wait until Friday to tell us - especially if we have to switch ports and drive a long way???

Sure they will. They have to wait and see what the storm is doing.

I have to say, I'm pretty impressed with Disney all over again. They seem to be able to handle anything - that takes A LOT of behind the scenes work.

Erin