Offical Hurricane Frances thread!
- Thread starter mostyn17
- Start date
LegalBriefs
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Aug 18, 2004
- Messages
- 270
To the person who asked... I called the DCL reservation number... I guess I called early before they were all told not to give out any info... lol... Plus, it took a bit before I got her to admit anything... LOL... I think our best sources will be the people currently on board... At least initially... If anyone finds anything out, please share... 
WisconsinDisneyGirl
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jan 29, 2004
- Messages
- 573
Okay, it is 2am here in Wisconsin and I can't sleep. Looking at weather.com at the hurricanes path looks like it will hit the coast Sat. night sometime! Our flight comes in Sat. at 6pm--that is great! Well, now I can go to sleep knowing that- sweat dreams....
snelsonbrown
"We are all travelers in the wilderness of this wo
- Joined
- May 23, 2001
- Messages
- 4,419
Hello - this is Shirley here in Cape Canaveral - It appears as tho we are a dead hit for Francis, but then I remembered George - He was suppose to come in like a roaring tiger - I was made to leave my condo and I drove to Kissimmisse with my family to get out of his rage - by the blessings of God, instead of coming 60 miles close, he veered east and headed out to sea - we were very blessed - George was 300 miles away from us so we received very very little damage - Norm and I have gone through many hurricanes and they have changed from when we were young until now - I began to see the difference in hurricanes way back with Andrew - once upon a time I would not leave my home, but as I said storms are different now - oh yes - Norm and I will make a decision on Friday - I will keep this thread updated as times goes by as to the reaction on this side of the world - I know that traffic is getting heavier and the stores are beginning to feel the impact of folks getting ready just in case - neighbors here at home were going to the hardware stores at late as 6pm last night but this is a senior complex so it takes us time to get ready 
Anyhow keep us all here in thoughts and prayers -will post later
Always
Shirley
Anyhow keep us all here in thoughts and prayers -will post later
Always
Shirley
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
Good morning all...
5am advisory...good news that infamous computer model has all guesses pointing away from florida and towards the carolinas (okoay, good for us, bad for them). Bad news--5 day projection still has Frances aimed for the mouse house boat house and latest guess (according to local news--though it conflicts with the map) is Saturday a.m. and NOT Saturday p.m.
link for projection map:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/310923W5.gif
Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 26
Statement as of 5:00 am AST on August 31, 2004
...Category three Frances continuing westward track north of the
Leeward Islands...
at 5 am AST...0900z...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
Hurricane Watch for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands.
At 5 am AST...0900z...the government of Antigua has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua...Barbuda...St. Kitts...and
Nevis.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following Leeward
Islands...St maarten...Anguilla...St. Eustatius...Saba...
guadelopupe...and also for Puerto Rico...Culebra... Vieques and the
U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Thomas...St. John and surrounding
islands...and for the British Virgin Islands.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for St. Martin...
St. Barthelemy...and St. Croix...and for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic from Manzanillo Bay eastward to Cabo engano.
At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 19.9 north...longitude 62.8 west or about 125
miles... 205 km...north of St. Martin in the northern Leeward
Islands.
Frances is moving toward the west near 15 mph...24 km/hr. A gradual
turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24
hours. On this track...the core of the hurricane will pass to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands today.
However...the outer bands of Frances will begin affecting these
islands today.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
is 949 mb...28.02 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches...locally higher...are likely over
portions of the warning area in association with Frances.
Repeating the 5 am AST position...19.9 N... 62.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...125 mph. Minimum central pressure... 949 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am AST.
Forecaster Beven
5am advisory...good news that infamous computer model has all guesses pointing away from florida and towards the carolinas (okoay, good for us, bad for them). Bad news--5 day projection still has Frances aimed for the mouse house boat house and latest guess (according to local news--though it conflicts with the map) is Saturday a.m. and NOT Saturday p.m.
link for projection map:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/310923W5.gif
Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 26
Statement as of 5:00 am AST on August 31, 2004
...Category three Frances continuing westward track north of the
Leeward Islands...
at 5 am AST...0900z...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
Hurricane Watch for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands.
At 5 am AST...0900z...the government of Antigua has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua...Barbuda...St. Kitts...and
Nevis.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following Leeward
Islands...St maarten...Anguilla...St. Eustatius...Saba...
guadelopupe...and also for Puerto Rico...Culebra... Vieques and the
U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Thomas...St. John and surrounding
islands...and for the British Virgin Islands.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for St. Martin...
St. Barthelemy...and St. Croix...and for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic from Manzanillo Bay eastward to Cabo engano.
At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 19.9 north...longitude 62.8 west or about 125
miles... 205 km...north of St. Martin in the northern Leeward
Islands.
Frances is moving toward the west near 15 mph...24 km/hr. A gradual
turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24
hours. On this track...the core of the hurricane will pass to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands today.
However...the outer bands of Frances will begin affecting these
islands today.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
is 949 mb...28.02 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches...locally higher...are likely over
portions of the warning area in association with Frances.
Repeating the 5 am AST position...19.9 N... 62.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...125 mph. Minimum central pressure... 949 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am AST.
Forecaster Beven
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
For the meteorological wannabes--here is the 5am discussion...I did a big ol' "Huh"...but it explains why the computer models are now suggesting that it will not be Florida for a direct hit.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 310839
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004
SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FRANCES IS COMPLETING A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
REPORTS A 30-40 NM DIAMETER OUTER EYEWALL WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 121 KT AT 700 MB...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 949
MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMAINS OF THE EARLIER INNER
EYEWALL ARE STILL PRESENT. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 110 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOWS A WIND
MAXIMA OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER EYEWALL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/13. FRANCES REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
ALL FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WHICH HAVE MAJOR
IMPLICATIONS FOR WHERE FRANCES WILL END UP. DATA FROM THE RECENT
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION HAD SOME INTERESTING EFFECTS ON THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN A LEFT OUTLIER MOST OF
THE TIME...HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW A RIGHT
OUTLIER...MOVING FRANCES NORTHWARD ALONG 77-78W AFTER 72 HR. THE
NOGAPS...WHICH HAS BEEN A RIGHT OUTLIER...IS NOW A LEFT OUTLIER
CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE GFDL AND UKMET
HAVE BOTH SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS TO THE RIGHT AFTER 72 HR. GIVEN THE
LARGE CHANGES IN JUST ONE CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AT ALL...BASICALLY BEING AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. IT IS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE UP TO 72 HR
AND ALONG THE LEFT SIDE THEREAFTER.
WHEN THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE IS FINALLY DONE...FRANCES SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. IT WOULD NOT
BE A SURPRISE TO SEE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS...THE SHIPS...
GFDL...AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST CONDITIONS MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
AFTER ABOUT 48 HR. ALSO...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF OTHER
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES THAT CANNOT CURRENTLY BE FORECAST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 19.9N 62.8W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 20.4N 65.0W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 21.3N 67.7W 120 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 22.2N 70.2W 120 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 23.2N 72.3W 120 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 25.0N 75.5W 120 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 26.5N 78.5W 120 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 28.5N 81.5W 85 KT...INLAND
000
WTNT41 KNHC 310839
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004
SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FRANCES IS COMPLETING A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
REPORTS A 30-40 NM DIAMETER OUTER EYEWALL WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 121 KT AT 700 MB...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 949
MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMAINS OF THE EARLIER INNER
EYEWALL ARE STILL PRESENT. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 110 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOWS A WIND
MAXIMA OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER EYEWALL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/13. FRANCES REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
ALL FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WHICH HAVE MAJOR
IMPLICATIONS FOR WHERE FRANCES WILL END UP. DATA FROM THE RECENT
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION HAD SOME INTERESTING EFFECTS ON THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN A LEFT OUTLIER MOST OF
THE TIME...HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW A RIGHT
OUTLIER...MOVING FRANCES NORTHWARD ALONG 77-78W AFTER 72 HR. THE
NOGAPS...WHICH HAS BEEN A RIGHT OUTLIER...IS NOW A LEFT OUTLIER
CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE GFDL AND UKMET
HAVE BOTH SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS TO THE RIGHT AFTER 72 HR. GIVEN THE
LARGE CHANGES IN JUST ONE CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AT ALL...BASICALLY BEING AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. IT IS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE UP TO 72 HR
AND ALONG THE LEFT SIDE THEREAFTER.
WHEN THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE IS FINALLY DONE...FRANCES SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. IT WOULD NOT
BE A SURPRISE TO SEE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS...THE SHIPS...
GFDL...AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST CONDITIONS MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
AFTER ABOUT 48 HR. ALSO...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF OTHER
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES THAT CANNOT CURRENTLY BE FORECAST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 19.9N 62.8W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 20.4N 65.0W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 21.3N 67.7W 120 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 22.2N 70.2W 120 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 23.2N 72.3W 120 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 25.0N 75.5W 120 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 26.5N 78.5W 120 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 28.5N 81.5W 85 KT...INLAND
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
DISers---
Those who are not already prepared after CHARLIE--those listed in the 5 day forecast would be wise to start stocking up on your supplies now. Even though the computer models (That combine the 5 or so guestimates of path all on one map) suggest it not hitting Florida and other projections suggest Florida and not the Carolinas--now is the time to be prepared.
Those with DCL or Disney reservations:
If flying: Check your work schedule to see if work can accomodate you leaving a day earlier than planned--perhpas flying out on Thursday night or Friday morning instead of Friday evening or Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon flights--very imperative to check for an alternative plan or at the very least make sure you have your Trip Insurance so that you can catch up with the ship.
If driving: Same drill--plan on driving/arriving on Friday instead of Saturday. Spend the night in a hotel instead of fretting with the weather on Saturday a.m.
For cruisers: I know DCL might be getting edgy--but you paid lots of money for your cruise and you have the right to call and ask questions if you are concerned with your high ticket item. They may not know until Thursday or Friday--but should the need for a hurricane warning arrive, it would be posted prior to these days--within 72 hours of expected landfall. Don't let a rude CM get you down. Other route--keep up with your TA--he/she will at least only have calls from her customers instead of all the customers who will be on board this weekend.
For Disney Travelers--don't change your plans unless perhaps it involves flying in on Saturday--come in a day early if you can. Or come in a day late if you can--Saturday is going to be an airline madhouse at airports with any destination in Florida on the boards (at least at this point). Disney is pretty safe during a hurricane--and at the very least it will be a memorable vacation.
Good luck all--just wanted to post some tips that I have seen from reading everyones posts and concerns and responses.
Those who are not already prepared after CHARLIE--those listed in the 5 day forecast would be wise to start stocking up on your supplies now. Even though the computer models (That combine the 5 or so guestimates of path all on one map) suggest it not hitting Florida and other projections suggest Florida and not the Carolinas--now is the time to be prepared.
Those with DCL or Disney reservations:
If flying: Check your work schedule to see if work can accomodate you leaving a day earlier than planned--perhpas flying out on Thursday night or Friday morning instead of Friday evening or Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon flights--very imperative to check for an alternative plan or at the very least make sure you have your Trip Insurance so that you can catch up with the ship.
If driving: Same drill--plan on driving/arriving on Friday instead of Saturday. Spend the night in a hotel instead of fretting with the weather on Saturday a.m.
For cruisers: I know DCL might be getting edgy--but you paid lots of money for your cruise and you have the right to call and ask questions if you are concerned with your high ticket item. They may not know until Thursday or Friday--but should the need for a hurricane warning arrive, it would be posted prior to these days--within 72 hours of expected landfall. Don't let a rude CM get you down. Other route--keep up with your TA--he/she will at least only have calls from her customers instead of all the customers who will be on board this weekend.
For Disney Travelers--don't change your plans unless perhaps it involves flying in on Saturday--come in a day early if you can. Or come in a day late if you can--Saturday is going to be an airline madhouse at airports with any destination in Florida on the boards (at least at this point). Disney is pretty safe during a hurricane--and at the very least it will be a memorable vacation.
Good luck all--just wanted to post some tips that I have seen from reading everyones posts and concerns and responses.
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
One last note--even if the hurricane does NOT hit and makes that last minute (depended upon?) turn to spare the coastline--it will still cause trouble as plans will be in place as if it were going to hit--meaning evacuations, some cancelled flights, et cetera.
so even if you adjust your plans to "beat" the hurricane--do not feel bad if it does turn and you had to "waste" a vacation day or drive instead of fly.
so even if you adjust your plans to "beat" the hurricane--do not feel bad if it does turn and you had to "waste" a vacation day or drive instead of fly.
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
Hurricane FRANCES
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Advisory Forecast/Advisory Discussion Probabilities Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT31 KNHC 311142
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING WESTWARD...A LITTLE
STRONGER...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH
INCLUDES GREAT INAGUA...LITTLE INAGUA...MAYAGUANA...AND FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...
GUADELOUPE...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA... VIEQUES AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM MANZANILLO BAY EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES
...325 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. HOWEVER...
THE OUTER BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE
ISLANDS TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...20.0 N... 63.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Advisory Forecast/Advisory Discussion Probabilities Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT31 KNHC 311142
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING WESTWARD...A LITTLE
STRONGER...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH
INCLUDES GREAT INAGUA...LITTLE INAGUA...MAYAGUANA...AND FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...
GUADELOUPE...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA... VIEQUES AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM MANZANILLO BAY EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES
...325 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. HOWEVER...
THE OUTER BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE
ISLANDS TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...20.0 N... 63.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
Miss Jasmine
Time for something new!<BR><font color=limegreen><
- Joined
- May 23, 2001
- Messages
- 16,856
Turn baby turn! Come on ridge, get the heck out of the way.
Wow the models have really changed.
Wow the models have really changed.
Hey Sherry, where in Naples? Isn't it a great place to live?!! Now if only we didn't have to keep worrying about hurricanes. I was supposed to stay at the Ritz on the beach for our 18th anniversary this weekend and I canceled because you never know with these storms. It's great to see someone else from here on the site!
HookedonMagic
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2001
- Messages
- 692
We're bracing for another hit here in Orlando. Forty-four years with no hurricanes and now (possibly) two within a few weeks. Yikes!
And poor Castaway Cay, Nassau and Freeport. Looks like they will get hammered by this storm with direct hits. We're scheduled on the 9/11 Western Magic. Might be our first time to miss CC
(Not complaining, just stating.)
Of course, my main concern right now is everyone who is actually hit by this terrible storm. Maybe Mother Nature will let us all get through it with little damage or injury.
Keep those prayers going. GO AWAY Francis.
And poor Castaway Cay, Nassau and Freeport. Looks like they will get hammered by this storm with direct hits. We're scheduled on the 9/11 Western Magic. Might be our first time to miss CC
(Not complaining, just stating.)Of course, my main concern right now is everyone who is actually hit by this terrible storm. Maybe Mother Nature will let us all get through it with little damage or injury.
Keep those prayers going. GO AWAY Francis.
Turn baby turn
Ok this is killing me, but I guess I cannot do anything other then continue with my plans. I will be leaving Thurs. for FLA. Should arrive at the Raddison Friday afternoon. BUT if I may... if they decide to dock in Tampa how does this work?
I booked the Rad for the shuttle and parking. Would I have to drive down to Tampa, and park there? How do they handle a shift in the port? Im sure I wont be the only one @ PC, and I was just wondering how I should modify plans if need be. Since DCL is not saying anything right now, it's hard to know esp. when I will be out of the loop Thurs. and Fri. at least online.
Praying for all this to go away.
A side note: Thank to ALL here who keep this thread updated with reports
Ok this is killing me, but I guess I cannot do anything other then continue with my plans. I will be leaving Thurs. for FLA. Should arrive at the Raddison Friday afternoon. BUT if I may... if they decide to dock in Tampa how does this work?
I booked the Rad for the shuttle and parking. Would I have to drive down to Tampa, and park there? How do they handle a shift in the port? Im sure I wont be the only one @ PC, and I was just wondering how I should modify plans if need be. Since DCL is not saying anything right now, it's hard to know esp. when I will be out of the loop Thurs. and Fri. at least online.
Praying for all this to go away.
A side note: Thank to ALL here who keep this thread updated with reports
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
Not sure--landfall is officially when the eyewall hits land...given the sprawl of the hurricane--you may have some yucky weather, but it isn't predicted for central Florida until the overnight hours between Sat and Sun. So if Tampa is the port of choice--you should be okay. Perhaps a little dampened and breeze blown in your embarkation photo--but able to sale nonetheless.
Captain will keep that ship and its passengers safe--it is safer for the ship at sea--worst case scenario is that IF Tampa is the port, he may have to leave Port early before the Port is closed. Be sure to be at whatever Port she is leaving from as early as possible especially if you do not have trip insurance--otherwise it is your expense (and luck?) to catch up with the ship at its next port of call.
Captain will keep that ship and its passengers safe--it is safer for the ship at sea--worst case scenario is that IF Tampa is the port, he may have to leave Port early before the Port is closed. Be sure to be at whatever Port she is leaving from as early as possible especially if you do not have trip insurance--otherwise it is your expense (and luck?) to catch up with the ship at its next port of call.
WisconsinDisneyGirl
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jan 29, 2004
- Messages
- 573
Just got off the phone with a very nice CM with DCL. They have not made any changes yet but she did say they were in the process of makeing some decisions. She said they should know by later this afternoon or tomorrow what DCL is going to do. She did state, as may of you already know, that DCL has never cancelled a cruise.
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
My thoughts are no PC embarkation unless Frances takes a stronger than anticipated Northerly turn within the next 24 hours.
Also--if your ship is able to embark elsewhere--that you still have a nice opportunity for an Eastern Carribbean cruise--if your ship has enough time to get there from, say, Tampa. Those islands have had little effects of Frances and hopefully it stays that way.
Also--if your ship is able to embark elsewhere--that you still have a nice opportunity for an Eastern Carribbean cruise--if your ship has enough time to get there from, say, Tampa. Those islands have had little effects of Frances and hopefully it stays that way.
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