Occupancy Trends Change over Time?

[Beth]

I was just wondering...

DVC is celebrating 10 years this year.

For some, their children were already grown when they joined the club. But, for others - they may have just been starting their families.

Do any of you think that, in maybe 10 more years or so, we'll see greater difficulty booking in the off season at the DVC resorts - <i>especially</i> the older resorts - OKW, HH, VB, & BWV - as those families are no longer limited to traveling during school breaks?

Granted, as time goes on, grandchildren will be an issue - but they won't be traveling EVERY year, EVERY trip...

I wonder if this trend could, then, prompt a re-vamping of the current point schedules?

We have no children and have no plans to have any - so we greatly enjoy being able to travel during the "off season," but I've often wondered if we'll "always" be able to enjoy the "relative" ease of getting reservations that we are, now.

Just a thought... - FWIW.

 

[CRobin]

and has some validity, IMHO.

To take it a step further, will just the two of you be forced to take a "larger than needed unit" bacause you're now sharing the resort with a lot more "couples only" families and the demand for studios overwhelms the supply?

Makes for interesting conjecture.

 

[Beth]

That's a good thought, too, CRobin.

Maybe, then, the "fixed week" timeshares wouldn't be so much less appealing - as competition for the 1BR or studios during off-season becomes more fierce on the point system.

 

[Granny]

This is an interesting thought....it has crossed my mind from time to time but I never gave it much analysis.

As the DVC owner population ages, their vacation needs will almost certainly change. I know that DW and I have already talked about being able to go in the low point off season when we are empty-nested. I can see times like the Thanksgiving - Christmas being very difficult to book even with the 11 month window.

This could result in some re-assessment of seasonal points. Since it's a zero sum game, any increase at one time of year would have to have a corresponding decrease at another time of year. Maybe the summer points would go down since us oldtimers can't handle the heat.

The accommodation mix brought up by CRobin is also an interesting issue. That's why I'm glad to see that there aren't a lot of dedicated 2BR...provides DVD with more booking options.

As long as they keep building new DVC's (two more on the books after BCV), that should help keep the average DVC owners age from going up too rapidly. Also, it provides a larger universe of rooms to book.

Interesting.....

 

[DVCDAVE]

I agree with the above observations....all good, and valid points.

Another arguement for buying more points that you 'think' you really need. Also another reason why DVC may have been initially right in requiring the minimum purchase to be 250 points, not 150 points. More points in fewer people's hands.

 

[Beth]

Could this possibly be a valid reason to convince my DH to buy another add-on?!?

WooHOO!!!

 

[DisneyKidds]

There is a flip side, as not all current DVC owners are families with older children that won't be a deciding factor in when vacations are taken in the near future. There are plenty of "younger" families buying in now.

Right now we have young children who are not in school yet. We will be taking two off season trips a year until they are school age. Once they are school age it will mean no more off season trips for us for 20 years until all the kids are out of school .

As with anything else, there will be pluses and minuses that will probably result in no significant net change in vacation patterns for the foreseeable future. For every family that converts to off season trips there will be another who converts to prime time trips.

20 plus years from now the "older" DVC members will be passing their memberships to their kids who may have kids in school and will need to go prime time - just in time for us to fill those off season trips.

And the cycle goes on....

Just my twist on your theory .