Obama supporters! - A positive place to talk about his campaign

[chris1gill]

We got the endorsement of the Postal Union today.

How'd you find out? Is it online somewhere? That's great news

 

[chris1gill]

Interesting. But rest assured, Clinton is fighting for fair trade policies, just like she did in those secret WH meetings when she was a cheerleader for NAFTA.

Don't worry, they don't agree on THIS one

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/09/clinton.colombia/index.html

FYI
Factor military duty into criticism

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-oped0404wrightapr03,0,92000.story

While this young man was serving six years on active duty, Vice President Dick Cheney, who was born the same year as the Marine/sailor, received five deferments, four for being an undergraduate and graduate student and one for being a prospective father. Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, both five years younger than the African-American youth, used their student deferments to stay in college until 1968. Both then avoided going on active duty through family connections.

Who is the real patriot? The young man who interrupted his studies to serve his country for six years or our three political leaders who beat the system? Are the patriots the people who actually sacrifice something or those who merely talk about their love of the country?

 

[Fitswimmer]

I was reading Democratic underground this morning and I found some comments that I thought you all would enjoy reading. I don't want to link because the language on that site is not family friendly.

In so many words, he asked them: How perfect would the situation in Iraq have to be for you and the Administration to say, 'OK, enough. We did our job.
Now we can bring our troops home.'

Since they keep moving the goalposts, his question in effect asked them to define what they see as "winning." If things were as they are now, but without our troops
stationed there, would that be an acceptable situation? (After all, Crocker and Petraeus just spent untold hours telling us in glowing terms of the progress that's been made
in Iraq during the last 6 months).

If this war is unwinnable, might as well bring everyone home now.
If it's winnable, how will we know when we get there?

With only the few minutes available to him, I think we got an up-close glimpse of Obama's diplomatic capabilities at work. He brings no anger to the table - just
smart questions and abundant insight, which he uses to get to the bottom of the problem at hand.

The other candidates always seem to need two chairs - one for them, one for their ego.
I did not see that yesterday with Obama.

What I saw was someone who truly wants to end the war, who understands that both sides are invested in their own policies and want to find what they think is the correct path to follow,
He therefore is intent on forging a new path, somewhere between the two existing parallel ones, that everyone can walk.

Once again, I am so happy that I've decided to support Obama, a decision that seems to get reinforced with every new day.

I saw his question, and I saw the stammering and dancing that passed as a response-and it also made me happier about Obama being my first choice.

 

[wvrevy]

Uh, oh...Barack's been busted for making a deal to give someone a job in return for an endorsement from a super delegate!

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/sleuth/2008/04/the_deal_with_sen_klobuchars_e.html

 

[chris1gill]

Uh, oh...Barack's been busted for making a deal to give someone a job in return for an endorsement from a super delegate!

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/sleuth/2008/04/the_deal_with_sen_klobuchars_e.html

That is THE cutest story I'm sure the 12 year old would do a great job, but who would watch her I'd be afraid she'd get lost in that big house



"During her endorsement conversation with him, Klobuchar dropped a not-so-subtle hint when Obama asked how her daughter was doing: Abigail was recently certified as a babysitter by the Red Cross and is "available on Saturday nights until 11 p.m." And thanks for asking.

No promise was extracted, Klobuchar says, though she feels pretty confident that her preferred Democratic presidential candidate would put her daughter high up on the babysitting call list. "

 

[WildernessBride]

I am feeling better about Obama's chances in Pennsylvania every day.....
check it out...
http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/04/09/the-keystone-state-of-play.aspx

Maybe I am a dreamer, or I live to close to Philadelphia, but I am more optmistic as we get closer to the 22nd!!!

 

[NewJersey]

I am feeling better about Obama's chances in Pennsylvania every day.....
check it out...
http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/04/09/the-keystone-state-of-play.aspx

Maybe I am a dreamer, or I live to close to Philadelphia, but I am more optmistic as we get closer to the 22nd!!!

I think if he does extremely well in Southeastern PA, he might be able to come close but I still think he'll lose the state by anywhere from 5-10 points. I never thought it'd be that close a few weeks ago though! This state is tailored for Clinton.

 

[chris1gill]

I am feeling better about Obama's chances in Pennsylvania every day.....
check it out...
http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/04/09/the-keystone-state-of-play.aspx

Maybe I am a dreamer, or I live to close to Philadelphia, but I am more optmistic as we get closer to the 22nd!!!

There's every reason to be optimistic IMHO, even if he doesn't win, every vote is important for that overall popular vote margin he's already got.... you know that come Denver that number will be brought up if he doesn't have it.... No matter what state every one of his voters is important.... He's closing this gap, whether or not he wins, who knows, but it's going to be far closer than it was initially thought!

 

[WildernessBride]

There's every reason to be optimistic IMHO, even if he doesn't win, every vote is important for that overall popular vote margin he's already got.... you know that come Denver that number will be brought up if he doesn't have it.... No matter what state every one of his voters is important.... He's closing this gap, whether or not he wins, who knows, but it's going to be far closer than it was initially thought![/QUOTE]

I agree!!! I feel good about him closing the gap and to me that is a victory. But I do realize that other area besides Phila are not so friendly to Obama...for example my husbands family is from York, Pa and there are not too many dems out there!!!

But, I am having the worst time right now, I want to volunteer for Obama in Pa (because I live on the outskirts of Phila.), but I am presently writing my senior paper in history.....it is driving me nuts that I can't take too much time from writing my paper. I am writing about Bayard Rustin, a civil rights activist, pacifist, and all around extraordinary individual...that most people know very little about. But what I thought was so cool was when I went to meet with my professor, who I meet with once a week to go over my progress, she said that Bayard Rustin reminded her of Obama!!!! In some ways yes, both extraordinary people!!!!

 

[zulaya]

I think what is interesting about that PA blog is the update that they posted at the bottom.

I think it said that the spread was now 3.7%. Now, I may be wrong, but I want to say when I see polls of any kind, the margin of error is typically in that 3%-4% range, isn't it?

So for one poll, it potentially is a statistical dead heat with 12 days to go.

While I am cautiously optimistic, I think this is a sign that Obama will do well in PA.

 

[NewJersey]

There's every reason to be optimistic IMHO, even if he doesn't win, every vote is important for that overall popular vote margin he's already got.... you know that come Denver that number will be brought up if he doesn't have it.... No matter what state every one of his voters is important.... He's closing this gap, whether or not he wins, who knows, but it's going to be far closer than it was initially thought!

That's a good point...she needs to have a HUGE win to start to chip away at his 800K popular vote lead. It doesn't look like she's going to get the margins she needs.

 

[wvrevy]

I think what is interesting about that PA blog is the update that they posted at the bottom.

I think it said that the spread was now 3.7%. Now, I may be wrong, but I want to say when I see polls of any kind, the margin of error is typically in that 3%-4% range, isn't it?

So for one poll, it potentially is a statistical dead heat with 12 days to go.

While I am cautiously optimistic, I think this is a sign that Obama will do well in PA.

Polling is such a complicated process that you really have to look deeply into the polls in order to find any real truth. For example, Keith Olbermann always runs a "Keith Number" with any poll he shows. That number is derived by adding the poll's margin of error to the number of undecideds. For example, a poll that shows Hillary leading 49-41 (as one recent poll did) and has a margin of error of 5 percent would have a "Keith" number of 15...and the higher that Keith number the higher the probability that the poll can't be taken seriously.

You really have to look at how they put the numbers together, too. For example, one recent poll showed Hillary leading by about 6 points. However, if you looked deeper, you'd see a virtual dead heat between the two of them when it comes to voters who consider themselves "firm" in their decision, while Hillary has an edge in those who are merely "leaning" towards one candidate or the other. This also helps explain what happened in Ohio, when polls showed similar results...but "leaners", who tend to be late deciders, broke towards her, which gave her a bigger win than was predicted.

Polls and pollsters have taken a pretty big beating over the last few years, and while some of it was certainly deserved, a lot of it was simply the media's fault for not knowing how to report the poll's findings accurately. Large sample polling can be EXTREMELY accurate in a lot of ways, but it depends so much on how it is done, from how the questions are phrased to how the results are tabulated to when the poll is taken (for example, Hillary supporters are more likely to say they won't vote for Barack right now than vice versa. Why? Partially, because their chosen candidate is getting her political *** handed to her by Barack, and there is a lot of "sour grapes" and poor sportsmanship on the part of some of those being polled...but that's simply my slightly informed opinion. )

And yes, I do know a bit about surveying and polling and how that is done...as I've been doing it (in the form of Customer Feedback Initiatives and similar programs) for several years now, working with some of the best known formulas out there and developing a few of my own along the way. Probability and statistics is something that interests me (yeah, yeah..I know I'm weird ).

 

[Honu]

Humpfh! I've been cut from the pledged delegate candidate list. I guess I didn't do a good job of making my utter disgust with Hillary known. (Well, to the campaign at least.)

I realized when the candidate list for my district got up into the hundreds that this was coming. Thankfully, some really good people are still on the list.

 

[NewJersey]

Probability and statistics is something that interests me (yeah, yeah..I know I'm weird ).

Freak!

But seriously, excellent points. The SUSA poll that had her up 18 the other day had her winning SEPA by 10+...the Quinnipiac (a larger sample too) had her up by 6 or 8 (can't remember) and Obama winning SEPA by 10 or so. I'd say the SUSA poll is off b/c Philly and its suburbs will go for Obama - by how much, is more of the question as was in the Newsweek article above.

 

[chris1gill]

Well, first of all, I very much like Probability and Statistics!

Honu, I'm sorry you were cut from the list, BLECH! Would have been nice if we had someone from the DIS go!!!

 

[Honu]

....Math geeks for Obama!....

I hated statistics in college. I'm loving that I took it now.

 

[chris1gill]

....Math geeks for Obama!....

I hated statistics in college. I'm loving that I took it now.

I always loved statistics! My son is young, but he's excellent at them, the kid has a career in them if you ask me, either that or chemistry... who'd have guessed...

I agree, Math geeks for Obama

 

[WildernessBride]

I always loved statistics! My son is young, but he's excellent at them, the kid has a career in them if you ask me, either that or chemistry... who'd have guessed...

I agree, Math geeks for Obama

I wish I was a good math student, I have no interest at all in math of any sort!!! Me, I am a history geek.

 

[yasmina]

OK, I am WAY too involved with this election!

Last night I DREAMT of Obama. Somehow, we were at a social occasion, not campaign related. He & I started talking and soon we were getting very affectionate. OK, get your minds out of the gutter! Not THAT kind of affectionate, but snugly-like.

Our girls were playing together (mine are about 2 yrs. older than his), and Michelle was busy socializing.

I'll bet Freud would have a ball with this one!

 

[Honu]

Yasmina. My DH has complained (several times) that this Obama guy is getting more of me than he is. I do just want to hug the guy though. He and his message make me happy.