Noooo...the end of EMH?

[TwinPrincessMermaids]

I also think these are going the wayside. Our community is 90% vacation rentals since several families, or those staying for several weeks at a time (like a lot of our UK tourists), or those who like to travel with pets, or snowbirds, etc., there are so many that prefer the offsite experience. Disney eliminates all the potential money they would spend if they were there longer. I KNOW I can make it to 10pm or 11 without snacking again. BUT 1am...? I'm going to buy some more food the later I stay. Since the labor costs are the same, it makes more sense to give them something that doesn't cost (hope I don't get killed for this, but something like an extra FP or something) and then keep everything open late for everyone. I still think the early EMH makes sense, and you might as well reward the early bird diehards. THat's easier to control. But if you can keep the people there, you can keep the people spending. That's economics 101...

 

[JennaDeeDooDah]

But I wonder if they really want attendance disbursed throughout the 4 parks, every day of the year. I always thought that part of EMH was so that they could increase staffing at the busy park, but then decrease staffing at the others. But maybe I'm off on that thinking. Of course, it could be to the point where they need to do something to decrease the crowding at the MK and using FP+ might be it. BUT they'd have to get rid of the tiers at DHS and Epcot for this to work. Who cares if you get a 4th FP+ to use at Nemo, ya know?

And they might not care if it is evenly dispersed or not, but they have said that a big reason for FP+ was so you were locked in to a specific park and they knew what park it was, They can better plan for staffing and all that good stuff. By splitting up the resorts into 4 groups, they can offer incentives to keep people on property and know which park they are most likely to visit on a given day. And I would get rid of the tiering for the bonus fast passes.

 

[MrInfinity]

- 60 Day FP+ YES I will say that is a nice perk to have for guest. Have I found it necessary. No. 7DMT, A&E and TSMM are the only three "selling" out. A&E has a limited market but then I've gotten FP+ for it one week out over holiday weekend and numerous times day of. 7DMT also picked up week out and day of. TSMM seems to be harder to snag but arrive early or stay late or skip it (I think it's underwhelming). But at 30 days we still are able to book all we want and change around. Nice, yes, mandatory for successful trip, no.
- Extended Theme Park Hours YES YES YES Huge perk and the most valuable one there is. No offsite guest can replicate experience. It is being handed a pile of FP+.
- Complimentary Transportation and Parking. YES Buses if you fly in and don't want to rent a car. Otherwise I can easily get to parks and back to my hotel probably faster than onsite guests. In March from arrival at DHS bus stop to my room at POP (practically walkable) almost 1.5 hours. Had I just driven it would have been maybe 15 minutes. Parking fee nothing compared to rooms savings.
- Complimentary MagicBands. NO. You can use your ticket, you can use old MagicBands or you can buy some that might not break the budget given your hotel savings. Not necessary.
- Complimentary Airport Service YES if you are not going to rent a car. I always say if you won't have a car, stay onsite out of necessity.
- Access to Disney Dining Plan. NO. I can book all the same restaurants and they will scan my credit card just like they scan a MagicBand. I've done the math and it's not a savings dollar wise. Many lose money on it. While it is convenient it is more restricted in what I order so not a plus for me.
- ADRS at 180+10. NO. There are a couple harder to get such as BOG dinner, but I've booked if four times at around the 60 day mark, I've gotten Wishes Dessert Party and multiple times of Dining with Imagineer - all at fairly last minute. Now if Disney has guests only dining like they did for BOG lunch for awhile then yes that is a perk.

While they don't list location it is what many talk about. Maybe a better term would be bubble.

Yep the biggest perk is a combination of location and bubble. It's "just being there". It's also a hard sell to someone who doesn't know. It's coming home from the MK to your hotel via an uncrowded boat, and then hanging out on the beach. Waking up in the morning to Mickey Waffles and right off to the parks. Monorail, boats, whatever. It's all part of the experience. At no point do you have to hop in your car and drive anywhere from 10 to 30 min to get to your hotel. It's just different. For anyone wanting to experience a vacation in Disney World, I recommend onsite. Note I tend to recommend either an Epcot or MK area resort. I don't think the Values add very much, with some long walks to the bus and long waits. They do need to make sure to keep those differentiated. Not sure how to do this while keeping the cost in the $120-range.

I'll note...

60+10... yes, agree, this is not a game-changer
Extended hours... not really. We have stayed late at Epcot, and didn't find it to be all that. Stayed late at MK, same. Guess we differ here.
Transportation... yes, huge, especially for anyone not driving in.
ADRs... I value this one quite high. Already for December, pretty much everything good is booked up. It was a big benefit for us to get in early.

 

[HopperFan]

While the on-site guest is more profitable, it isn't nearly a 10-to-1 ratio. Consider the following common example comparing two families of 4 staying for 5 days.

Hotel: =$160 per night on site versus $0. (Remember that the vast majority of Disney rooms do not rent out for $300 per night, and taxes and fees are not revenue for Disney. They go to "the man", not "the mouse").

Park Passes: (5 Day Non-Hopper with 3 "Disney Adults" and one "Disney Child" = $1,240 for both on site and off site.

Breakfast: On site family mixes in some sit-down meals with some quick service meals = average of $50 per day, or $250. Off site family eats exclusively off site, (an assumption that may not be true, and if not, shaves the difference down further still) = $0.

Lunch: Both on site and off site eat on property and mix in some sit down meals with quick service = average of $70 per day, or $350.

Dinner: On site family eats all 5 dinners on site at an average cost of $140 per meal = $700. Off site eats 3 dinners on property at the same daily average = $420.

Mousellaneous: Both families buy Mickey Bars, popcorn, Mouse Ears, T-Shirts in similar volume, but we will give the advantage to the on-site guests for no apparent reason. (Maybe they buy resort-themed shirts or shot glasses). On-site = $40 per day, or $200. Off site = $25 per day, or $125.

Grand totals:
On-site = $800 hotel + $1,240 passes + $250 Breakfast + $350 Lunch + $700 Dinner + $200 Mousellaneous =$3540. (Or $885 per person)

In order to hit the 10-to-1 ratio, the off-site family would have to spend $354, or $88 per person. That won't even get you in the parks. Instead, their expenses would be: $0 Hotel + $1,240 passes + $0 Breakfast + $350 Lunch + $420 Dinner + $125 Mousellaneous = $2,135. (Or $533 per person).

So over the course of 5 days, the on-site guest is worth $350 more per person. Or $70 per day. It is significant, but not ginormous.

You need to take out the cost of operating that Disney hotel. With all the CMs they have constantly doing landscape work, lifeguards (most offsite don't have), extra security, extra front desk folks, etc ... that $800 will drop considerably to what they are making. The offsite doesn't make them any but it surely wouldn't be the full $800 Disney is losing. All the other items have the same profit margins.

AND I stayed offsite for 10 days in May. We ate 9 of our lunches and 7 dinners at Disney and that was numerous TS. They got most our food money and probably more than my share of Mousellaneous with the Star Wars Party etc. When we stay on property we spend less on food, eat in room and pack sandwiches for lunch. With money we save off property we eat almost all our meals at Disney.

Disney hotels do one thing over most others - heavily staff in every area and do nonstop 24/7 maintenance on grounds and buildings. That is costly.

 

[HopperFan]

We use at least 2 if not all 3 late EMH every time we visit, which are multiple weeks during the year. Getting to that age where we are no longer rope drop people but we do like to close down the parks at night. It's a major factor for us staying onsite, extra FP+ would not be an equivalent replacement for us.

This is us. Sleep in - close the parks down, even hopping to close two down. Night EMH is the best!

 

[JimmyV]

As a resort guest, I would be okay with this. I never stay for late EMH's anyways, and morning ones only benefit us one or two days. Instead a free FP+ on every day of our stay would be far more valuable.

For a 5 day stay, this would get me 5 additional "no line" rides. When we stay for evening EMH, we get no fewer than 3 per night. Sometimes many, many more. More often than not, we have been allowed to remain on certain rides without even getting off to ride them over and over again. A single extra FP cannot replicate this feeling. And perhaps it is just the emotion rather than the experience, but still, that is something. My daughter likes to recall her fond memories of riding BTMRR 3 times in a row without even having to exit. Will she spin a tale about the time she got an extra FP? Probably not.

3) 60-day any? Well of course this is the best. There would be the supply, since the Tier-1 rides are being expanded. At DHS we'll have Star Wars which will provide some major Tier-1 competition for TSMM and RR. The capacity will be there.

I am not as confident as you in the math. At AK, I already get one for the Safari, Everest and Rapids. If you give me a fourth and I can't repeat what I already have, I am at a loss to figure out what line I strategically need to bypass. At DHS and Epcot, getting an additional headliner would be great. But it would wipe them out much, much faster than they get wiped out now. (30,000 rooms x 3.3 people per room = 100,000 additional FPs doled out. If 23% of those go to people going to Epcot (using the ratios provided by the recent attendance report), that means 22,000 additional FPs at Epcot each day. Someone who knows more about ride capacity and FP capacity can clue us in as to whether or not this means that you will get one for Soarin' or Test Track. At the MK, the 4th FP would be useful. No doubt. But they should just go ahead and make that a permanent 4th FP for everyone. That park can handle it.

 

[MrInfinity]

Reposting below w corrections...

 

[JimmyV]

You need to take out the cost of operating that Disney hotel. With all the CMs they have constantly doing landscape work, lifeguards (most offsite don't have), extra security, extra front desk folks, etc ... that $800 will drop considerably to what they are making. The offsite doesn't make them any but it surely wouldn't be the full $800 Disney is losing. All the other items have the same profit margins.

AND I stayed offsite for 10 days in May. We ate 9 of our lunches and 7 dinners at Disney and that was numerous TS. They got most our food money and probably more than my share of Mousellaneous with the Star Wars Party etc. When we stay on property we spend less on food, eat in room and pack sandwiches for lunch. With money we save off property we eat almost all our meals at Disney.

Disney hotels do one thing over most others - heavily staff in every area and do nonstop 24/7 maintenance on grounds and buildings. That is costly.

100% correct. I was using "expense" numbers and not "profit" numbers. When one does, the gap narrows considerably, as you rightfully point out.

 

[lauradis]

No more evening magic hours might be the tipping point for us to stay offsite and use taxi

 

[drea21]

We've stayed onsite every one of our trips and have never once used EMH. I honestly never thought too much about them. After reading this I realize that we have been missing out! Definitely planning on taking advantage on our upcoming trip! We stay onsite to take advantage of not needing to lug car seats through the airport and to be in the Disney "bubble".

 

[JimmyV]

Now you showed me an offsite guest that's spending $900/day. I bet that is not a typical offsite guest.

You lost me here. My offsite family spent $533 per person for the whole 5 days. That is $106 per person per day. Not sure where the $900 comes from.

 

[pigletto]

I've speculated as far as I am willing to go with the other stuff. Now I'm just wondering how the heck I will know which park to avoid if there is no EMH?

 

[MrInfinity]

You lost me here. My offsite family spent $533 per person for the whole 5 days. That is $106 per person per day. Not sure where the $900 comes from.

Oh, that was $700 total? Okay. I thought you were saying you were going to have a spendy lunch and a spendy dinner at the parks every day. If not, then it goes even more extreme. I'll have to look it over. Wish there was excel out here, math in text format kind of sucks.

 

[danny1649]

I think until Disney makes official announcement don't get stressed out about this issue.When or if they do I think will be the time to discuss this issue.

 

[MrInfinity]

You lost me here. My offsite family spent $533 per person for the whole 5 days. That is $106 per person per day. Not sure where the $900 comes from.

Here you go, rerunning with your numbers, but switching from a Value to a Deluxe. I put 50% margin on everything, but you could change that to whatever.
Onsite Profit Offsite Profit
Hotel 1600 800 0 0
Passes 1250 0 1250 0
Breakfasts 250 125 0 0
Lunches 350 175 350 175
Dinners 700 350 420 210
Miscellaneous 200 100 125 62.5
1550 447.5
You have to visualize the tabs. But it's around 3.5X. Only cuz this offsite guest you described bought lots of food and misc. In a scenario in which an offsite guest attempts to eat most of their meals offsite as well, it's a different story. To the original point, I think we agree that Disney has every incentive to get a guest onsite. What is more likely to do so... EMH or extra FP+'s? I think I'd still take the extra FP+'s.

 

[JimmyV]

I think until Disney makes official announcement don't get stressed out about this issue.When or if they do I think will be the time to discuss this issue.

There is no way that Disney is going to "officially announce" this. At best, it would be footnoted in some press release touting Character Caravans and/or extra FPs.

 

[maxiesmom]

There is no way that Disney is going to "officially announce" this. At best, it would be footnoted in some press release touting Character Caravans and/or extra FPs.

They tried something similar a few years ago, and it failed miserably. They tried to replace the extra hours with Character Caravans.

I'm truly hoping they are not so stupid as to try to cut EMHs again.

 

[jtowntoflorida]

You also quoted $800 for a hotel. You talking Value here? Our hotel runs us $2500 for 8 days. Redo the math considering a $2500 hotel (which is very cheap for the poly, at only $300/nt)... say that's $1700 profit, and now its $2550 vs $515 or $2550 vs $315 comparable profits. That's 5x for a deluxe guest vs an offsite guest when the offsite guest buys dinner, and 9x for comparing to an offsite guest that buys dinner offsite.

According to Disney's 2014 Annual Report, per room guest spending (which includes hotel cost + food and merchandise purchased at the hotels only) is $280 at the domestic resorts. So, on average, a 5 night stay gives Disney $1400 in revenue per room...somewhere in the middle of your guesses. From the way Disney reports its results, it's hard to see the standalone profitability of either the "parks" or the "resorts" in the Parks & Resorts operating segment, so I'm assuming both of you are guessing on that.

 

[JimmyV]

In a scenario in which an offsite guest attempts to eat most of their meals offsite as well, it's a different story.

I agree. But I think that Disney has done such a good job integrating the dining experience into the overall park visit that they capture a fair percentage of offsite meal money (just as Hopper showed us above.)

To the original point, I think we agree that Disney has every incentive to get a guest onsite.

Absolutely. Disney needs offsite guests for sure. But they would rather that the first 100,000 people book their hotels and let the next 100,000 people scramble for offsite space.

 

[ArwenMarie]

If this happens, they are definitely going to have to announce it formally. Probably before they start selling 2016 packages on the 22nd.

At minimum, they are going to have to update their perks part of the website like this page
https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/plan/my-disney-experience/benefits/

The other thing they could do if this is the direction they want to go in is just lower the amount of hours they have. That way they can keep touting it as a perk and not have to officially address anything or cause a fuss.