We just recently stayed at a moderate. We were planning to arrive at Disney on Saturday, but we made good time driving. I called in the afternoon on Friday to see if they could add one more night and they were totally booked. I had them check the other moderates and they were full too. We ended up staying in Ocala and only had a short drive the next morning.
Based on the availability we were expecting a packed resort, but it wasn't bad at all. This was over the 4th of July and we hardly saw people. There would be two to three families at the quiet pool and the food court didn't have long lines. Overall, we were very happy.