News Round Up

[wallrock]

It seems that Comcast sees it for exactly what it is - a Theme Park Business - which can be very successful and profitable if run that way.

While Disney is/has been in the Resort/lock guests in Vacation Business which creates a huge infrastructure beast that has to be fed - solely owned resort hotels, transportation, restaurants, golf courses, roads, infrastructure, land, etc., Parks and 70,000+ employees.

A home run with this comment. And gluttony is making the beast lethargic.

 

[wallrock]

And as a aside regarding Star Wars - several of the articles about the euro bailout casually mentioned a major Star Wars addition was confirmed for paris for 2017. Just casually in the text.

I hadn't heard that...but it true it means what I thought...that Disney is using Star Wars attractions as more of a " break the glass" emergency tool...not as a "reward" to the profitable parks....cough cough.

I was worried...and still am...that real Star Wars additions will be prioritized to china and Paris...the Japanese will pay for theirs... Then Anaheim for direct suit access...then...

Hmmm.. Which one did I leave out?

Home run number 2 today. Star Wars will be the tool that's pulled out when the machine starts breaking down - or in the case of Shanghai, an 'extended warranty' on a new machine.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Excellent.

Would shuttering the whole enterprise also be a feasible way out?

I would think throwing the kill
Switch would cause tremendous longterm problems for Disney.

One of the things in the marketplace and business circles that Disney 100% banks on is its reputation for universal appeal.

"Everybody loves Disney"

A failed resort complex that was built specifically for them and was never really successful would be a tremendous hit to their business model that they would suffer long after the park was razed and turned back into cow pastures.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I think Iger is willing to ride this out until the end of his tenure and leave it to the successors to determine. This of course depends on the need for more money in the near future. If they ask him for another check it may be a different story.

Agree 100%

And why I'm not optimistic about them not forcing us to bleed more

 

[Yellowstonetim]

Oh come on! Give me a physical break! Now if Disney uses Star Wars, arguably the biggest franchise in the world, it is desperation and a sign of failure!?

It couldn't be because it is a great product that fans are clamoring for and is a wise business decision and a very good idea.

You can make anything in the world a negative if you try hard enough!

 

[Yellowstonetim]

I would think throwing the kill
Switch would cause tremendous longterm problems for Disney.

One of the things in the marketplace and business circles that Disney 100% banks on is its reputation for universal appeal.

"Everybody loves Disney"

A failed resort complex that was built specifically for them and was never really successful would be a tremendous hit to their business model that they would suffer long after the park was razed and turned back into cow pastures.

I think the only way Disney could ever get out, would be to sell out interests and have a contractual plan to end Disney products in the park over time. So 10 years from now it wouldn't be Disney at all. That would very, very hard to do and who would want that risk?

 

[beer dave]

Oh come on! Give me a physical break! Now if Disney uses Star Wars, arguably the biggest franchise in the world, it is desperation and a sign of failure!?

It couldn't be because it is a great product that fans are clamoring for and is a wise business decision and a very good idea.

You can make anything in the world a negative if you try hard enough!

Yes, I agree.

There's that glass again....

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Oh come on! Give me a physical break! Now if Disney uses Star Wars, arguably the biggest franchise in the world, it is desperation and a sign of failure!?

It couldn't be because it is a great product that fans are clamoring for and is a wise business decision and a very good idea.

You can make anything in the world a negative if you try hard enough!

Not as a sign of failure...

But a tightly gripped ace in the hole.

I'm gonna guess that you're thinking "why wouldn't they put new Star Wars in wdw, DL, etc?... Everybody loves it!!!"

They will put "things"...but to what level is highly suspect.

What I'm thinking?...is that Disney is just not into putting in major admission covered rides to "reward" their existing clientele.

And that's Orlando. The counter argument is that they will get a huge attendance bump... But that is highly suspect. They would get a Star Wars geek bump early...
But wdw is somewhat saturated in its own market. Attendance gains have been more of "inflation" over the time since animal kingdom opened than large raw growth. And the cost has risen to a level, combined with other factors, where they are eliminating alot of their potential clientele.

I think they know it... And that's why we've seen a completely different strategy in themeparks - particularly in the domestic ones - over the last 10+ years.

"If you come...they won't build it"

 

[clsteve]

They also might want to address the weather as suggested. I was at euro in April and honestly...I loved the park by the weather was not comfortable.
The British mob wdw but would be turned off at the French weather outside of summer. Can't grow lobsterbacks in 40 and overcast.
They might try to enclose part of the parks similar to Tokyo...where the locals have no problem showing up in parkas but there is some relief.
Indoor entertainment venues...outdoor sporting complexes that cater to a wide range of Europeans...that all could work.

And they got to lower the price. The only way the continent will become repeat customers is if you make it a great deal.

Net zero is the only really reasonable goal I'm my opinion.

I'm very interested to see if any of the new "investment" moves to address the weather issue. It would be beyond smart.

If you've lived in Northern Europe (and they have the most disposable income right now), there are 3 big things families will do with winter vacations: bake on the beach somewhere like the Costa Del Sol or Greece, go skiing, or (ironically) head to Fla.

Standing in line during blustery Parisian freezing rain isn't high on the list right now.

Their seasonality isn't much different than Williamsburg Va., and BG closes during the winter.

I agree - price is the only real weapon they have right now to combat the attendance issue

And, if I remember correctly, in it's early justification stages, they were counting on a measurable percentage of US travelers to DLP annually.

Before the dollar dived, before the Euro, before US overseas travel took a nose dive, plus 9/11, of course. So, that's not coming back anytime soon.

 

[Yellowstonetim]

Not as a sign of failure...

But a tightly gripped ace in the hole.

I'm gonna guess that you're thinking "why wouldn't they put new Star Wars in wdw, DL, etc?... Everybody loves it!!!"

They will put "things"...but to what level is highly suspect.

What I'm thinking?...is that Disney is just not into putting in major admission covered rides to "reward" their existing clientele.

And that's Orlando. The counter argument is that they will get a huge attendance bump... But that is highly suspect. They would get a Star Wars geek bump early...
But wdw is somewhat saturated in its own market. Attendance gains have been more of "inflation" over the time since animal kingdom opened than large raw growth. And the cost has risen to a level, combined with other factors, where they are eliminating alot of their potential clientele.

I think they know it... And that's why we've seen a completely different strategy in themeparks - particularly in the domestic ones - over the last 10+ years.

"If you come...they won't build it"

I think perception is everything. Many theme parks and theme park companies base there model on giving you something new every few years. That is the way Hershey Park (Next door) works. However this model isn't wise or a good fit for Disney. I think people that visit every year or more frequently want something new. Some of us that are fans but only go every 2 or 3 years (less in the past) are fine with things and don't need new. We would like it and appreciate when it happens, but we don't need it.

Disney needs to make people happy and coming to visit and leave money. If they can achieve that goal without spending hundreds of millions on a fancy new ride, then that is fine. Disney is fun and fantastic as-is. (For the most part, there are exceptions where updates are required - and are coming, such as AK and DHS.) You are spot on: "If you come...they won't build it." Why should they? Just because some want them to spend a billion to make them happy? Many here want lots of change because things are stale to them. Yet every day people arrive and don't find anything stale.

I also think you are right about capacity. All other companies have plenty of room to attract people. I don't know that Disney has that room. They will get boosts from Pandora and Star Wars, but how much of that will be current visitors, like myself that will spend more time in AK and DHS. I don't know what the max capacity is for MK, but it is getting close. You can only grow so much. And Orlando may very well be maxed as far as labor force. Therefore the wisdom in keeping people on site and giving them more reasons to part with their money.

The computerization of the visitor experience with My Magic, magic bands, etc. may have been a necessary effort to prepare for Pandora and Star Wars bumps and long term growth.

 

[clsteve]

The computerization of the visitor experience with My Magic, magic bands, etc. may have been a necessary effort to prepare for Pandora and Star Wars bumps and long term growth.

Why so?

I'm curious - and I mean this only to understand why so many seem to feel that NextGen was necessary for TWDC to be prepared for any additional growth in Orlando. It seems to come up often

I'm truly curious - no hidden intent or any other agenda

Because, they've been very up front from the very beginning about all of the reasons they invested in the NextGen journey - per guest spend being high on the list.

If you read the patent info, listen to every exec interview or analyst call on the subject, there's nothing to support any other agenda but a lower level of granularity on what we do and a higher level of manipulation on what we spend.

I haven't seen, read, heard or interpolated anything that's of benefit to the guest experience - where we should be excited they made the investment

Please point me to why I should be excited -- besides it generating a higher guest spend

 

[Yellowstonetim]

Why so?

I'm curious - and I mean this only to understand why so many seem to feel that NextGen was necessary for TWDC to be prepared for any additional growth in Orlando. It seems to come up often

I'm truly curious - no hidden intent or any other agenda

Because, they've been very up front from the very beginning about all of the reasons they invested in the NextGen journey - per guest spend being high on the list.

If you read the patent info, listen to every exec interview or analyst call on the subject, there's nothing to support any other agenda but a lower level of granularity on what we do and a higher level of manipulation on what we spend.

I haven't seen, read, heard or interpolated anything that's of benefit to the guest experience - where we should be excited they made the investment

Please point me to why I should be excited -- besides it generating a higher guest spend

Increased spending is the upfront reason, but there is so much more. It has been hinted at, but they came right out and said it will give them the ability to add several thousand people to MK. It is a matter of people moving and monitoring. Spreading people out and gathering info about where they are. They will have longer range scanners as well as the "Mickey head" scanners. These will be placed at all choke points and can give them live information on movements tied to demographics. They can adjust offers and FP accordingly to move people. There is a whole science.

You may be walking through the park when all of the sudden you are offered an extra FP for a ride or two at a certain time. This was done based on your historical behavior and was designed to encourage a certain percentage to alter there plans and reduce waits.

The possibilities are endless, and Disney has had them in mind all along.

 

[rteetz]

I have some interesting points regarding DVC from the poster Parentsof4 on wdwmagic

In 2008 WDW occupancy was about 90%

Today WDW has over 5000 empty rooms on most nights

DVC has made hotels lose money, the damage started with the wilderness lodge addition. Resorts that have added DVC to them have seen losses vs old key west and Boardwalk villas which opened with DVC.

Converting rooms to DVC is trying to recapture lost revenue.

Over 21 years as CEO Eisner grew parks and resorts by an average of almost 11% annually

Iger just under 6%

Disney won't admit that their deluxe rooms are way over priced leading to the DVC conversions

 

[beer dave]

I have some interesting points regarding DVC from the poster Parentsof4 on wdwmagic

In 2008 WDW occupancy was about 90%

Today WDW has over 5000 empty rooms on most nights

DVC has made hotels lose money, the damage started with the wilderness lodge addition. Resorts that have added DVC to them have seen losses vs old key west and Boardwalk villas which opened with DVC.

Converting rooms to DVC is trying to recapture lost revenue.

Over 21 years as CEO Eisner grew parks and resorts by an average of almost 11% annually

Iger just under 6%

Disney won't admit that their deluxe rooms are way over priced leading to the DVC conversions

Kind of contradictory. If the conversions have caused lost revenue, then why convert more to try to regain? Makes no sense.

I don't think they would have started the conversions at all had there not already been lost revenues.

 

[skier_pete]

Kind of contradictory. If the conversions have caused lost revenue, then why convert more to try to regain? Makes no sense.

I don't think they would have started the conversions at all had there not already been lost revenues.

I agree that DVC is in part to blame for so many rooms being empty, but it's actually more Disney's greed.

Deluxe rooms start around $300 a night, and are more typically $400 - $500 a night. There's an awful lot of families that can't afford that.

Where DVC fits in is that even for families that CAN afford that, but are also frequent guests - a lot of them probably found that DVC is a better way to go. So, that leaves only the INfrequent wealthy guests left to fill the Deluxe resorts.

However, that said, it isn't just about filling empty rooms. DVC also Disney to pre-sell these rooms. In other words, when they sell those $165 per point rooms at the Grand Floridian, they take ALL the profits for the rooms right away. Going forward, the maintenance fees are enough to maintain the resort.

This means that converting rooms is a double win for Disney. It reduces the number of available rooms for paying customers (supply vs demand) so they can continue to charge high rates. In the meantime, the rooms that were converted, they get to take 50+ years of profit all at once.

The problem being they have also raised the per point rate to the point that they are going to start pricing people out of DVC, at least direct buy from Disney.

 

[rteetz]

I agree that DVC is in part to blame for so many rooms being empty, but it's actually more Disney's greed. Deluxe rooms start around $300 a night, and are more typically $400 - $500 a night. There's an awful lot of families that can't afford that. Where DVC fits in is that even for families that CAN afford that, but are also frequent guests - a lot of them probably found that DVC is a better way to go. So, that leaves only the INfrequent wealthy guests left to fill the Deluxe resorts. However, that said, it isn't just about filling empty rooms. DVC also Disney to pre-sell these rooms. In other words, when they sell those $165 per point rooms at the Grand Floridian, they take ALL the profits for the rooms right away. Going forward, the maintenance fees are enough to maintain the resort. This means that converting rooms is a double win for Disney. It reduces the number of available rooms for paying customers (supply vs demand) so they can continue to charge high rates. In the meantime, the rooms that were converted, they get to take 50+ years of profit all at once. The problem being they have also raised the per point rate to the point that they are going to start pricing people out of DVC, at least direct buy from Disney.

Everything here is exactly right Disneys greed for money is why they are doing this.

 

[rteetz]

Universal and Comcast has announced a 3.27 billion dollar theme park to open in Beijing in 2019.

 

[faneuil]

You may be walking through the park when all of the sudden you are offered an extra FP for a ride or two at a certain time. This was done based on your historical behavior and was designed to encourage a certain percentage to alter there plans and reduce waits.

This brings me to a question I've always wondered about MDE.
As it is now, the app basically requires you to be logged in and monitoring it to be reminded of FP+ or other bookings at the resort. Right?

Wouldn't it be awesome if the app could text you and say, "Hey pal, don't forget, FP+ at Peter Pan starts in 10 minutes! See ya real soon!"

I check my texts during the day. I don't always check the app. If I'm told you can already do this, I'm gonna feel very, very foolish.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Universal and Comcast has announced a 3.27 billion dollar theme park to open in Beijing in 2019.

That's nowhere near what Disney is spending in china...

But...little brother is starting to challenge big brother for the ball, aren't they?

Brian Roberts does not fear Disney...

He didnt fear Eisner (who was way scarier) to the point where he (I will always guess in cahoots with roy Disney) launched a hostile takeover attempt that essentially got mike kicked out the door.

He has a Mickey Mouse dartboard in his office...

But at the end of
The day...this is good for the DISNEY FANS.
Because they aren't with us in Burbank...not to where they should be.

 

[Yellowstonetim]

This brings me to a question I've always wondered about MDE.
As it is now, the app basically requires you to be logged in and monitoring it to be reminded of FP+ or other bookings at the resort. Right?

Wouldn't it be awesome if the app could text you and say, "Hey pal, don't forget, FP+ at Peter Pan starts in 10 minutes! See ya real soon!"

I check my texts during the day. I don't always check the app. If I'm told you can already do this, I'm gonna feel very, very foolish.

Not yet, but I'll bet it is coming. It will remind you of your FP, and it will suggest changes or additions. And as you walk by the gift shop, it will say; "The Guardians of the Galaxy playset you were looking at on the Disney Store Online is available and onsale at this gift shop."

Or: Bookings are down on something: "Congratulations, we have a discount on a ___ special for you. Click if interested."

There are 2 slots open in a tour and 7 different people walking by were looking at the tour at the website. Offer them a discount to join the group.

There are so many possibilities when the computer knows where you are, who you are, your history of activities, interests, and shopping, and what you have inquired about online.

Think of the amazing options.