News Round Up

[minnie-apple-mouse]

Not all that different

 

[linzbear]

My hope is some kind of superhero area that houses incredibles, big hero 6, and guardians of the galaxy. That would be awesome.

 

[notnothin]

Agreed.

Needs to go here IMO:

That would be a great fit!

 

[luisov]

Disney could see Malestrom as a "temporary" Frozen fill in. Obviously Disney temporary can mean 10 or 15 years (One Mans Dream and the Hat). I wouldn't be surprised if a Frozen land is being thought about, but I am also not expecting it. On wdwmagic a couple of them are saying there is a phase 4 that is really far away and might not happen at all. Now I wouldn't count on a phase 4, but if there is a phase 4 Frozen would make sense. That would be about 10 years away and at that point it should be known if Frozen has staying power. The Frozen Maelstrom ride would also be 10 years old by then and Disney could end up swapping that out again.

They have plans for a Frozen land for sure. In fact, they probably have plans for several different lands that will never see the light of day. It just depends on how big Frozen is in the upcoming years. Cars is still selling tons of merch almost 10 years after the first film. Toy Story is still selling after 20 years. If Frozen is part of that category, we don't know yet, but I think they'll contemplate many different possibilities until they find a property that is safe to bring a lot of money in the long term.

 

[minnie-apple-mouse]

That would be a great fit!

And its not Disney related at all anyway, XMAS music and decor.

 

[916chipndale]

They have plans for a Frozen land for sure. In fact, they probably have plans for several different lands that will never see the light of day. It just depends on how big Frozen is in the upcoming years. Cars is still selling tons of merch almost 10 years after the first film. Toy Story is still selling after 20 years. If Frozen is part of that category, we don't know yet, but I think they'll contemplate many different possibilities until they find a property that is safe to bring a lot of money in the long term.

Yep, Disney has a lot of plans for DHS that we will never know about.

 

[Eoghann]

I think a Cars/Pixar addition is more likely than Arendelle. I mean, what can they build to justify two rides based on the same property but in completely different parks, especially if one of them has a whole land built around it?

I was thinking of Guardians of the Galaxy, but in reality it's a bit too similar to Star Wars thematically speaking. Also, let's remember that Disney is trying to revive some interest in both Muppets and Indiana Jones. They might be waiting to see the potential of those properties before taking a decision.

Cars is by far the most likely. It's a proven success, they have a design (even if they end up cutting it down for the DHS version) and it fits naturally into the park. The only reason they've been doing Frozen there is they needed something to hold up attendance in the short term. Which is the role Frozen is clearly intended to have in Epcot next year.

 

[waffles77]

Tom Staggs spoke to the Merrill Lynch 2015 Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference this morning and talked about many of the topics that have been discussed on the boards.

- Disney is and will continue to repurchase stock to benefit shareholders and upped their plans during recent downturn
- Disney's not worried about Shanghai despite China economy because it is a long-term investment and more than 330 million "income qualified" residents live within a 3 hour drive of park.
- Disney also is considering future expansion in China beyond Shanghai
- Star Wars Land construction will start in 2016 for both parks. Both SW lands will feature a cantina and allow guests to pilot the Millennium Falcon. He would not give an opening date, of course.
- Toy Story Land will open before Star Wars (no surprise, but first time I've heard that mentioned by Disney)
- Disney is working on more Marvel projects beyond Hong Kong, but not ready to disclose
- Disney has 11 franchise with over $1 billion in retail sales

Is that number correct? Does Shanghai really have the whole population of the United States (income qualified at that) within a 3 hour drive to the new park?

 

[rteetz]

Is that number correct? Does Shanghai really have the whole population of the United States (income qualified at that) within a 3 hour drive to the new park?

I wouldn't doubt it. China's population is much higher than the U.S.

 

[Reddog1134]

Is that number correct? Does Shanghai really have the whole population of the United States (income qualified at that) within a 3 hour drive to the new park?

I wouldn't doubt it. China's population is much higher than the U.S.

The city of Shanghai alone has over 14 million people.

 

[Josh Hendy]

Is that number correct? Does Shanghai really have the whole population of the United States (income qualified at that) within a 3 hour drive to the new park?

Staggs said he should check his numbers a bit more carefully before he goes on the record.

The only places that are anywhere near within a 3 hour drive of Shanghai DL are Shanghai itself, and the provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

The total population of these regions is:

Shanghai 23,019,148
Jiangsu 78,659,903
Zhejiang 54,426,891

Many of those people live farther than 3 hours drive away and presumably a lot of them aren't "income qualified". The roads around Shanghai are pretty congested and the rail lines are not all bullet trains. And in any case I gather that there isn't a direct high-speed train to SDL. So even if you drew a 200 km circle around SDL you would come up with far less than 150 million potential day trippers.

The park should have lots of customers though. I suppose there are around 50 million people who could actually do a day trip to SDL, most of whom are probably "income qualified". Whatever that means.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I think a Cars/Pixar addition is more likely than Arendelle.

Expanded Pixar...maybe...

Cars or marvel...no.

It's been awhile... So I'll throw my chip back in the pot...

Carsland as constructed doesn't work for disneyworld...weather and capacity issues would make it impossible to manage...especially with an influx of attendance.

I don't see any way they cross promote any marvel franchise with the old vivendi contract in place. No one marvel franchise exists that strong enough to differentiate it/sell it on it's merits at MGM that wouldn't be linked to xmen/Spider-Man/hulk/fantastic four across town...

Just don't see the feasible angle.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Staggs said he should check his numbers a bit more carefully before he goes on the record.

The only places that are anywhere near within a 3 hour drive of Shanghai DL are Shanghai itself, and the provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

The total population of these regions is:

Shanghai 23,019,148
Jiangsu 78,659,903
Zhejiang 54,426,891

Many of those people live farther than 3 hours drive away and presumably a lot of them aren't "income qualified". The roads around Shanghai are pretty congested and the rail lines are not all bullet trains. And in any case I gather that there isn't a direct high-speed train to SDL. So even if you drew a 200 km circle around SDL you would come up with far less than 150 million potential day trippers.

The park should have lots of customers though. I suppose there are around 50 million people who could actually do a day trip to SDL, most of whom are probably "income qualified". Whatever that means.

It's all "china is great!" Misdirection that has been a Disney salesline since Eisner...

It's just a really tough/hard sell these last few months.

I can only imagine how much money they're made off the " factories" in the last 7 calendar days though...admittedly they've made a fair share off me.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

The city of Shanghai alone has over 14 million people.

How many of them can afford a Disney park?

Nobody from Washington heights in the Manhattan would be going to Disneyland if it were in west Chester county...I'm just saying.

 

[luisov]

Expanded Pixar...maybe...

Cars or marvel...no.

It's been awhile... So I'll throw my chip back in the pot...

Carsland as constructed doesn't work for disneyworld...weather and capacity issues would make it impossible to manage...especially with an influx of attendance.

I don't see any way they cross promote any marvel franchise with the old vivendi contract in place. No one marvel franchise exists that strong enough to differentiate it/sell it on it's merits at MGM that wouldn't be linked to xmen/Spider-Man/hulk/fantastic four across town...

Just don't see the feasible angle.

Not necessarily Carsland, but a watered-down indoor Cars attraction could be in the plans. That's still one of Disney's biggest franchises, so it's possible that they are looking for different ways to exploit that beyond the third movie.

I agree that Marvel seems unlikely. The stuff they can use from them is very limited/obscure for anyone to care about it. They can always build a big land with different attractions based on different IP's, though given the model they've been following since Harry Potter appeared, that's unlikely as well. Unless Pixar Land is happening after all.

 

[rteetz]

Expanded Pixar...maybe...

Cars or marvel...no.

It's been awhile... So I'll throw my chip back in the pot...

Carsland as constructed doesn't work for disneyworld...weather and capacity issues would make it impossible to manage...especially with an influx of attendance.

I don't see any way they cross promote any marvel franchise with the old vivendi contract in place. No one marvel franchise exists that strong enough to differentiate it/sell it on it's merits at MGM that wouldn't be linked to xmen/Spider-Man/hulk/fantastic four across town...

Just don't see the feasible angle.

Definitely not marvel but cars is still being talked about. It also wouldn't be an entire California cars land either it would be pieces of it likely a different version of RSR and a quick service restaurant or something along those lines.

 

[Reddog1134]

Definitely not marvel but cars is still being talked about. It also wouldn't be an entire California cars land either it would be pieces of it likely a different version of RSR and a quick service restaurant or something along those lines.

The problem is that anything short of a Carsland clone will be viewed as a major disappointment to the hardcore Disney fans. And for that matter, a clone would also probably be viewed as a failure.

 

[Josh Hendy]

Staggs said he should check his numbers a bit more carefully before he goes on the record.

Oops I meant, "Staggs should check his numbers a bit more carefully before he goes on the record."

I'm as bad as him

Not following this very closely but it's possible right now that the number one thing that's occupying Disney execs is coming up with enough cash to do all the stock buybacks they want to.

http://247wallst.com/media/2015/09/...ying-back-stock-aggressively-in-the-sell-off/

Staggs said that Disney took advantage of buying back stock “at meaningfully lower prices” and he also noted that (with caveats) the reaction had been overdone. In a little over a month it was about $2.4 billion that the firm spent to buy back shares — for a total of about $5.6 billion in total for fiscal 2015. The plan remains to buy back $6 billion to $8 billion in shares in its fiscal 2016.

If anyone is keeping score, and FWIW, the repurchases in less than 2 years add up to several times more than the amount they're going to spend on theme parks (what we call "growing the business") for the next 5 years.

Either they really know what they're doing or else the board and the typical shareholder are really anxious to make a buck in FY 2015 and 2016 and quite a bit less anxious about the prospects for 2020 and beyond.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I can definitely see an expansion of Pixar beyond you story...cars in some form would be workable but not a 4 hour wait in DCA workable. That just wouldn't work. They won't risk it.

But you know...coming full circle...
Doesn't make sense to "expand the appeal" with this third land?

The suits have made comments about "refocusing the park to be about being in the movies as opposed to making them"...

Kinda like what you would do at a magic kingdom LTE...

You know what will be "missing" from studios in 5 years? And one of the key product/interest demographics?

I think you can see where this one is going.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Oops I meant, "Staggs should check his numbers a bit more carefully before he goes on the record."

I'm as bad as him

Not following this very closely but it's possible right now that the number one thing that's occupying Disney execs is coming up with enough cash to do all the stock buybacks they want to.

http://247wallst.com/media/2015/09/...ying-back-stock-aggressively-in-the-sell-off/



If anyone is keeping score, and FWIW, the repurchases in less than 2 years add up to several times more than the amount they're going to spend on theme parks (what we call "growing the business") for the next 5 years.

Either they really know what they're doing or else the board and the typical shareholder are really anxious to make a buck in FY 2015 and 2016 and quite a bit less anxious about the prospects for 2020 and beyond.

Hmmm...if only there was a published, easy to understand reason behind the buyback that would make sense...

Like the end of an employment contract rich with SEC machinations...

If only