Both Zootopia and Jungle Book had completely different buzz. Jungle Book was an unexpected hit, and Zootopia had very high word of mouth. Dory mentions are already dropping like a rock.
In terms of "record" I'm referring to $$$. $40+MM in 3rd weekend for an animated movie would be a record (I believe Zootopia holds it as of now at $37MM). Not surprising since Dory holds the opening record, but surprising because some of the slow burners in animated history (Zootopia for one).
BFG and Tarzan are both opening with >3000 theaters. Those spots have to come from somewhere. The advantage Dory has is a weak July 4th lineup... Its hard to say, but something is going to give. Tarzan is a weird movie because its not a "kids" movie, but its not an action adult movie. Maybe a tween? (I smell flop). BFG is family all the way. So, potentially 3 movies targeted to younger audiences? 2 theaters to BFG (3D, non-3D), 1 to Tarzan, Dory drops to 1? Can't see family movies taking up 5/8 or 1/2 of the smaller cineplexes. The next weekend, you have Secret Life of Pets which has been marketed very broadly for a long time - pent up demand? If either BFG or Tarzan show signs of life, Dory is going to be squeezed out pretty quickly. Will be interesting to watch Thursday (how many theaters Dory is in this weekend... sub-3000? Uh oh...)
It is all very interesting... there's 1000 data points to look at and they all tell a slightly different story. History says to get to $1B though you need to either be a franchise (Minions, Toy Story) or a unique movie (Frozen, Zootopia).
Jungle Book failed to reach $1B, fell just short. I like the numbers, I like the statistics and metrics of how movie runs play out. All very interesting. If it was an exact science, then we couldn't debate right? It'd just be fact... so at least the fun part is reading different tea leaves and getting different answers.
