News Round Up 2016

[Goofy2015]

That's really optimistic, except maybe for the holdovers...most sites thinks the 3 new movies will all open $10-$20M less than you posted...

Yea I think I put a higher ceiling in my estimate then what is expected. BFG is weird like it is directed by Speilberg, distributed by Disney, family movie, and a major weekend to open. Yet I am not seeing a lot of public hype for the movie. Tarzan is another movie where I am not hearing a lot of people talk about it. Purge was just an estimation based on its Franchise. However, I do feel pretty confident about Dory making around $40MM over the weekend. Maybe less around $35MM.

 

[rteetz]

Yea I think I put a higher ceiling in my estimate then what is expected. BFG is weird like it is directed by Speilberg, distributed by Disney, family movie, and a major weekend to open. Yet I am not seeing a lot of public hype for the movie. Tarzan is another movie where I am not hearing a lot of people talk about it. Purge was just an estimation based on its Franchise. However, I do feel pretty confident about Dory making around $40MM over the weekend. Maybe less around $35MM.

I have a feeling that Tarzan won't do very well with the competition this weekend.

 

[LSLS]

I have a feeling that Tarzan won't do very well with the competition this weekend.

I honestly had no clue there was even a new version of Tarzan coming out until this discussion right now.

 

[dm1996]

I noticed there are now numerous discounts for the Fall room only offer for late October dates. Many rooms at Port Orleans Riverside are discounted by $50 to $60 per night. Even rooms at the Yacht Club are coming up at $110 per night discount which is during the Epcot Food & Wine Festival!

Thanks so much for this notice...I just saved $400 and was able to change everything online without having to call. So much easier.

 

[rteetz]

Photo update

Disneyland Paris update

http://disneyandmore.blogspot.com/2016/06/disneyland-paris-update-animagique.html

 

[HuskieJohn]

What's strange about the release of Dory, IMO, is that BFG is opening this week, on a holiday weekend. That could cut into Dory's haul. Maybe not. Dory should have staying power but a new Disney release only weeks after seems a bit odd.

Is this more about Dory or about BFG? Maybe Disney thinks BFG needs a holiday opening to boost ticket sales.

The BFG will flop in terms of bringing in money.

Dory will get its hit due to that Live of Pets movie.

 

[rteetz]

A look at what was supposed to be with Hyperion Wharf at what is now Disney Springs

http://savepleasureisland.blogspot.com/2016/06/hyperion-wharf-vs-disney-springs.html

 

[Irish_Mike]

While I certainly don't mind Disney Springs's aesthetic, I do wish it had a bit more character like those images of Hyperion Wharf showed.

 

[Budshark]

Yea I think I put a higher ceiling in my estimate then what is expected. BFG is weird like it is directed by Speilberg, distributed by Disney, family movie, and a major weekend to open. Yet I am not seeing a lot of public hype for the movie. Tarzan is another movie where I am not hearing a lot of people talk about it. Purge was just an estimation based on its Franchise. However, I do feel pretty confident about Dory making around $40MM over the weekend. Maybe less around $35MM.

$40MM for Dory would put it in record breaking territory in terms of week to week drop. (two consecutive weeks with less than a 50% drop)

Much more likely to be $30MM, $35 on the very high end.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

$40MM for Dory would put it in record breaking territory in terms of week to week drop. (two consecutive weeks with less than a 50% drop)

Much more likely to be $30MM, $35 on the very high end.

On July 1-4 weekend?

Nah...it will keep churning at least until next week.

The theaters around me have been packed - now that most theaters have reserve seating this is easy to notice - this thing will likely break that small record.

I didn't think the force awakens would make what it did domestically - it wasn't that good - but I won't be wrong by doubting dory.

Nemo is still Probably Pixars best single movie...so the franchise is strong and the fish story translates easily to new kids/generations.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

$40MM for Dory would put it in record breaking territory in terms of week to week drop. (two consecutive weeks with less than a 50% drop)

Much more likely to be $30MM, $35 on the very high end.

Not sure I agree with you there. Zootopia dropped less than 32% the first two weekends and first two weeks. And Finding Dory gets a Holiday weekend for their 3rd weekend, where Zootopia didn't get a holiday till their 4th weekend. I doubt Finding Dory can match Zootopia's drop, but if it were it would be at 52 Million this weekend. So it won't do that, but it just shows that two consecutive weeks like that would not be historic...Zoopotopia already did it. (By the way, so did Jungle Book which had a 29% drop in it's 3rd weekend after a 40% drop in it's second weekend... other animated hits to have less than 50% drops in consecutive first two weekends -- Finding Nemo 33%-39%, Shrek 2 33%-47%, Toy Story 3 46%-49%, Despicable Me 2 47%-43%, Inside Out 42%-43%, Lion King had less than 31% drop for the first 17 weekends, and the list goes on and on...

 

[Budshark]

Not sure I agree with you there. Zootopia dropped less than 32% the first two weekends and first two weeks. And Finding Dory gets a Holiday weekend for their 3rd weekend, where Zootopia didn't get a holiday till their 4th weekend. I doubt Finding Dory can match Zootopia's drop, but if it were it would be at 52 Million this weekend. So it won't do that, but it just shows that two consecutive weeks like that would not be historic...Zoopotopia already did it. (By the way, so did Jungle Book which had a 29% drop in it's 3rd weekend after a 40% drop in it's second weekend... other animated hits to have less than 50% drops in consecutive first two weekends -- Finding Nemo 33%-39%, Shrek 2 33%-47%, Toy Story 3 46%-49%, Despicable Me 2 47%-43%, Inside Out 42%-43%, Lion King had less than 31% drop for the first 17 weekends, and the list goes on and on...

Both Zootopia and Jungle Book had completely different buzz. Jungle Book was an unexpected hit, and Zootopia had very high word of mouth. Dory mentions are already dropping like a rock.

In terms of "record" I'm referring to $$$. $40+MM in 3rd weekend for an animated movie would be a record (I believe Zootopia holds it as of now at $37MM). Not surprising since Dory holds the opening record, but surprising because some of the slow burners in animated history (Zootopia for one).

BFG and Tarzan are both opening with >3000 theaters. Those spots have to come from somewhere. The advantage Dory has is a weak July 4th lineup... Its hard to say, but something is going to give. Tarzan is a weird movie because its not a "kids" movie, but its not an action adult movie. Maybe a tween? (I smell flop). BFG is family all the way. So, potentially 3 movies targeted to younger audiences? 2 theaters to BFG (3D, non-3D), 1 to Tarzan, Dory drops to 1? Can't see family movies taking up 5/8 or 1/2 of the smaller cineplexes. The next weekend, you have Secret Life of Pets which has been marketed very broadly for a long time - pent up demand? If either BFG or Tarzan show signs of life, Dory is going to be squeezed out pretty quickly. Will be interesting to watch Thursday (how many theaters Dory is in this weekend... sub-3000? Uh oh...)

It is all very interesting... there's 1000 data points to look at and they all tell a slightly different story. History says to get to $1B though you need to either be a franchise (Minions, Toy Story) or a unique movie (Frozen, Zootopia).

Jungle Book failed to reach $1B, fell just short. I like the numbers, I like the statistics and metrics of how movie runs play out. All very interesting. If it was an exact science, then we couldn't debate right? It'd just be fact... so at least the fun part is reading different tea leaves and getting different answers.

 

[rteetz]

News

Disneyland resort merchandise events for July.

https://disneyparks.disney.go.com/b...disneyland-resort-merchandise-event-snapshot/

 

[rteetz]

Video

The details in Nomad lounge

 

[rteetz]

Today in Disney History

The Grand Floridian Beach Resort opened in 1988 later named the Grand Floridian Resort and Spa.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

Both Zootopia and Jungle Book had completely different buzz. Jungle Book was an unexpected hit, and Zootopia had very high word of mouth. Dory mentions are already dropping like a rock.

In terms of "record" I'm referring to $$$. $40+MM in 3rd weekend for an animated movie would be a record (I believe Zootopia holds it as of now at $37MM). Not surprising since Dory holds the opening record, but surprising because some of the slow burners in animated history (Zootopia for one).

BFG and Tarzan are both opening with >3000 theaters. Those spots have to come from somewhere. The advantage Dory has is a weak July 4th lineup... Its hard to say, but something is going to give. Tarzan is a weird movie because its not a "kids" movie, but its not an action adult movie. Maybe a tween? (I smell flop). BFG is family all the way. So, potentially 3 movies targeted to younger audiences? 2 theaters to BFG (3D, non-3D), 1 to Tarzan, Dory drops to 1? Can't see family movies taking up 5/8 or 1/2 of the smaller cineplexes. The next weekend, you have Secret Life of Pets which has been marketed very broadly for a long time - pent up demand? If either BFG or Tarzan show signs of life, Dory is going to be squeezed out pretty quickly. Will be interesting to watch Thursday (how many theaters Dory is in this weekend... sub-3000? Uh oh...)

It is all very interesting... there's 1000 data points to look at and they all tell a slightly different story. History says to get to $1B though you need to either be a franchise (Minions, Toy Story) or a unique movie (Frozen, Zootopia).

Jungle Book failed to reach $1B, fell just short. I like the numbers, I like the statistics and metrics of how movie runs play out. All very interesting. If it was an exact science, then we couldn't debate right? It'd just be fact... so at least the fun part is reading different tea leaves and getting different answers.

Jungle book still expected to reach $1B, They still haven't opened in one major market, and they are still making over $10 million per week. Experts think Japan will put them over $1B. Not sure why you think Jungle Book won't make $1B

I doubt Finding Dory will lose that many theaters. Why would theaters cut Dory when it was #1 last weekend, rather than cut some of the movies that are really struggling right now. Movie theaters are about the bottom line, and right now Dory is a known money maker.

Right now Dory is trending up not down -- it broke the opening weekend record and the 2nd weekend record for animated movies, but the 2nd weekend was more numbers you seen in blockbusters (see Star Wars and Jurassic World) then animated movies. Animated movies tend to have a better hold. Again, I think BFG will be hurt by Dory more than Dory hurt by BFG.

My prediction - $35M on the low end of predictions, but $40M seems about right. It could do better, but won't make more that $45M. Jungle book breaks $1B on Japan's second weekend.

 

[luisov]

Photo update

Disneyland Paris update

http://disneyandmore.blogspot.com/2016/06/disneyland-paris-update-animagique.html

It's crazy to see how much stuff is being renovated at the moment. At the end it'll be worth it, but it's a shame that all the summer guests will miss so many attractions.

 

[rteetz]

News

Uniqlo opens at Disney Springs July 15th

http://www.**************.net/2016/06/uniqlo-set-to-open-disney-springs-location-on-july-15/

 

[HuskieJohn]

Can there be a separate Disney movie discussion thread?

 

[rteetz]

Can there be a separate Disney movie discussion thread?

We have a Disney movie board.