News Round Up 2016

800M seems on the low end of predictions. It would be a surprise if it did not surpass $1B. Close to $400M after 10 days, and still has not released in 23 markets including Japan, UK, South Korea, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Brazil -- that's 7 of the top 12 international markets. It is also a movie that is showing staying power even after just one weekend (4th best non opening Tuesday, 9th best non opening Wednesday, 8th largest second weekend after the 19th best opening weekends -- jumping 11 spots). In the four largest foreign markets it has opened so far it has had very comparable numbers to Zootopia (36 Million to 32 Million), but it has doubled what Zootopia had done after 10 days domestically (286 Million to 143 Million). With Zootopia crossing $1B, it seems Dory should be able to follow the same path unless it doesn't follow the current pattern. From what I read, they expect it to cross $1B...just sayin

The trade rags are always overly optimistic after a family movie opens big. The biggest number to keep in mind? 4.

There have been a grand total of 4 animated movies in history that got to $1B. And 1 of them JUST happened (Zootopia).

Frozen
Minions
Toy Story 3
Zootopia

While its possible (Nemo got close, good buzz on sequel), its important to look at the list. 1 was an anomaly (Frozen), 2 were big budget big buzz (Minions and Toy Story) and the last was a surprise and appealed to adults as much as kids.

Long story short... watch weekend 3, watch the internationals (UK, Germany)... but personally I think the tea leaves say no. I'm not hearing the buzz (its cute vs you have to see it), and I think the time of year and weird distribution hurt it. I'll split the diff at $900M (if its over $400M by end of next weekend domestic). There are also 2 moderate family movies coming next 2 weekends (BFG and Secret Life of Pets).

Anyhow, not shocked if it hits $1B. But the rags are overly optimistic and I think it will fall short.
 
The trade rags are always overly optimistic after a family movie opens big. The biggest number to keep in mind? 4.

There have been a grand total of 4 animated movies in history that got to $1B. And 1 of them JUST happened (Zootopia).

Frozen
Minions
Toy Story 3
Zootopia

While its possible (Nemo got close, good buzz on sequel), its important to look at the list. 1 was an anomaly (Frozen), 2 were big budget big buzz (Minions and Toy Story) and the last was a surprise and appealed to adults as much as kids.

Long story short... watch weekend 3, watch the internationals (UK, Germany)... but personally I think the tea leaves say no. I'm not hearing the buzz (its cute vs you have to see it), and I think the time of year and weird distribution hurt it. I'll split the diff at $900M (if its over $400M by end of next weekend domestic). There are also 2 moderate family movies coming next 2 weekends (BFG and Secret Life of Pets).

Anyhow, not shocked if it hits $1B. But the rags are overly optimistic and I think it will fall short.
Right now it is way ahead of each of those 4 movies pace. Frozen isn't a good one to compare to, cause Frozen started much slower than any movie to reach $1B. But as of right now it is way ahead of any of these movies. I have yet to read any expert to feel it won't hit $1B. As I said, I would be shocked given the direction it is going right now. Looks to get close to $450 million domestically alone. Getting $600 million. Finding Nemo made $550 Million Internationally, and Finding Dory will make at least that just because of ticket price increases. time will tell...but I believe it will be the 4th movie to break $1B for Disney this year.
 

What's strange about the release of Dory, IMO, is that BFG is opening this week, on a holiday weekend. That could cut into Dory's haul. Maybe not. Dory should have staying power but a new Disney release only weeks after seems a bit odd.

Is this more about Dory or about BFG? Maybe Disney thinks BFG needs a holiday opening to boost ticket sales.
 
What's strange about the release of Dory, IMO, is that BFG is opening this week, on a holiday weekend. That could cut into Dory's haul. Maybe not. Dory should have staying power but a new Disney release only weeks after seems a bit odd.

Is this more about Dory or about BFG? Maybe Disney thinks BFG needs a holiday opening to boost ticket sales.

People will see Dory regardless of its release date. BFG definitely needs that holiday opening, especially given Disney's lack of success with original/non-sequel live-action films.
 
I think the BFG has a decent amount of hype though because its directed by Spielberg and its a famous story.

I am really interested to see how well BFG does as it seems like these types of original, live action movies haven't been doing as great or at least underperformed (Tomorrowland, etc.) for Disney - while the animation is doing great
 
I think the BFG has a decent amount of hype though because its directed by Spielberg and its a famous story.
Oddly enough, while I am definitely looking forward to Dory, I am more looking forward to BFG. I think I will enjoy it, but I do think it won't be received as well as other Disney movies. I am hoping the Spielberg effect will result in a better box office. The BFG was one of my favorite (maybe favorite) book as a kid, and is what got me into Roald Dahl. It was the first time a book just really grabbed me, and made me want to read it again (well, besides Dr. Seuss).

It could be interesting with the quick release after Dory, but I think it is more likely to effect the BFG numbers more than Finding Dory. I could see some people going to see BFG instead of Finding Dory, but more would pick Finding Dory over BFG if given a choice between the two. But personally I think a single weekend can handle a 3rd weekend for Finding Dory and a first weekend for a new film over a holiday. Enough people go to the movies that weekend to satisfy all. Having The Secret Life of Pets the next weekend...now that could be a little trickier terrain to navigate, especially with all three getting (overall) positive reviews from critics.
 
I think the BFG has a decent amount of hype though because its directed by Spielberg and its a famous story.

In general, I think Finding Dory will be the #1 domestic box office movie for 2016 before the holiday season hits. $420-440MM is an estimate. Internationally, $1B seems very possible. It has yet to have been released in Japan, United Kingdom, and Germany, which are huge markets for at least Pixar animated movies. I am beginning to wonder if has been fully released in France because their numbers are fairly low.

As for this weekend, I think Dory will still have a strong standing. I don't think it will be #1 domestically for the weekend. IMO, my guess for this weekend will be:

1. BFG - $65MM
2. Legend of Tarzan - $50MM
3. Finding Dory - $40MM
4. Purge: Election Year - $35MM
5. Indepedence Day : Resurgence - $25MM
 
Agreed. I've actually never seen One Man's Dream and have wanted to finally check it out the last few times I've been, but it's always a movie preview. I don't know why anyone would ever watch that.
Why? because you might only spend 10 minutes watching a preview of a "stinker" like the Good Dinosaur, and not spend your hard earned $ at the theater for a family of 5 :)
 











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