News: Disneyland Hotel Villas to have Resale Restrictions

[Paul Stupin]

Though I don’t think VDH’s restricted points absolutely guarantees that Poly 2 will have the same, it certainly moves the needle closer, and does nothing to bolster the argument that it won’t.

I also think that if DVD did indeed fold Poly 2 into the existing association, it would make their long term strategy a confusing mess that no one would understand, which itself could erode sales over time, hurt ongoing sales at Riviera and possibly even VDH, and alienate current owners of both. The last two new builds have had restrictions, seems logical that the third one will as well. Occam’s razor is kind of useful here, saying that the simplest answer is often the correct one.

 

[Royal Consort]

I also think that if DVD did indeed fold Poly 2 into the existing association, it would make their long term strategy a confusing mess that no one would understand, which itself could erode sales over time, hurt ongoing sales at Riviera and possibly even VDH, and alienate current owners of both. The last two new builds have had restrictions, seems logical that the third one will as well. Occam’s razor is kind of useful here, saying that the simplest answer is often the correct one.

Which is the complete antithisis to Chapek's Razor.

But yes, everything above I completely agree.

 

[Chili327]

If there are 3.3m total points available and we assume an average contract size of 100 points for new members then that would be 33,000 memberships. 100 points gets you ~4 nights in a studio during the busy spring break period. (It would actually be less memberships because there will be some current members who add on 25/50 points contracts, but you get the idea.)

There are ~55 million people in CA, AZ, OR, WA, UT, and NV.

The super simplified pitch:

“
$217pp for 100 points = $21,700.
$21,700 / 50 years = $434/year amortized
$8.5 dues x 100 points = $850
$434+$850 = $1284
$1284/4nights = $331/night
Add $5/night for the closing costs.

“Would you like to lock in $336/night (+ inflation on dues) at the historic Disneyland Hotel for the next 50 years when the going rate for a room $500 - $700 a night during the same spring break period?

Worried about not wanting to go to the parks every year? You can also use the points to book a studio in Hawaii if you want to skip the parks for the year.

Additionally, we recently put forward a Disney Forward vision statement to show how we want to continue to build out the resort to provide you and your family even more magic in the future!

Don’t have the upfront cash? You can lock it in with a $3,000 down payment and $260/monthly payments for 10 years or until you can pay it off early.

Remember, you are locking in vacations for you, your kids, and your grandkids to Disneyland and Hawaii for the next 50 years….”

IMO, there are at least 33,000 west coast families that will buy into that pitch.

Does that math add up if its only 50 point contract.? (i tried to do the math, but somehow it was showing a much cheaper per night)

I could see them several years down the line offer an opportunity to "unrestrict" any resale points (no membership perks/extras, just unrestricted points). I doubt it would be cheap, nor do I think many resale owners would take advantage of it, but it's an easy money grab for them for what's essentially some lines of code.

That would be just a matter of rofr-ing in exchange for direct points.. no.?

Nothing says "Forum" like reading a thread that was about VDH having resale restrictions and finding out that half of the discussion is about the Poly Tower and most of the rest are arguments for and against restrictions attempting to use various forms of math to prove the author's point.

Here's my $0.02:
VDH will do well despite restrictions.
Poly Tower will not have restrictions.
Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics. I'm called upon to prove things every day relating to traffic, conversion rates, and sales for a really huge company that you'd all know. Most of the time the marketing people want an answer that confirms their theory, and the data doesn't show it. But, the same question asked a different way can be proven by the data to be a valid theory. About the only thing we can say about resale restrictions having an effect on sales is that Disney wouldn't do it unless there was an advantage to Disney and they thought they could get away with it.

Agreed, & back to VDH.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Does that math add up if its only 50 point contract.? (i tried to do the math, but somehow it was showing a much cheaper per night)

I was using $217/pp, so I don’t know what would be different except that the closing costs are spread out over less points.

Can you break down your numbers?

 

[Chili327]

I don't have them, but I think my issue started with the $8.5 dues x 50 points (instead of 100), or maybe just cutting too many things in half. lol (basically 50 points wouldn't get me 4 nights, so I probably needed to divide by 2 nights instead)

 

[Paul Stupin]

Nothing says "Forum" like reading a thread that was about VDH having resale restrictions and finding out that half of the discussion is about the Poly Tower and most of the rest are arguments for and against restrictions attempting to use various forms of math to prove the author's point.

Here's my $0.02:
VDH will do well despite restrictions.
Poly Tower will not have restrictions.
Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics. I'm called upon to prove things every day relating to traffic, conversion rates, and sales for a really huge company that you'd all know. Most of the time the marketing people want an answer that confirms their theory, and the data doesn't show it. But, the same question asked a different way can be proven by the data to be a valid theory. About the only thing we can say about resale restrictions having an effect on sales is that Disney wouldn't do it unless there was an advantage to Disney and they thought they could get away with it.

The thing is, the fact that VDH has restrictions, the topic of the thread, relates to the debate about Poly 2, so it seems that any discussion about current resale restrictions is bound to include both resorts. But, that said, did anyone out there really think that VDH wouldn’t have them?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

It wouldn't have mattered if VGC had resale restrictions, nobody was buying it as SAP. It won't matter for VDH either.

I still think this could be a good buy if you want to buy direct, restricted points but maintain resale value. I'd pick it over RIV for sure.

Ah, but back when VGC was in its sales they were sold as SAP. Very discounted in order to sell it. I'm curious to see how VDH does after the 1st few months because VGC really wasn't an easy sell. Things have changed a bit since then but there's still a lot of west coasters that day trip or have history of staying close to DL but not in DL hotels. IF DVC is selling a DL timeshare that has resale restrictions it might cause a pause in thinking. A VGC contract could be sold and easily used at WDW as well as DL but maybe more interesting at Aulani. I'm really not certain what way this will work out for VDH but of course there will always be the uninformed buyer who will buy without pause.

As I said - SSR has more years than beach club and yet drops 50% on resale - so it may be the location and not the restrictions cause the resorts to drop and that is why RR does better than SSR but worse than VGF

Sold out or sales price makes no difference as long as people are buying the resort at the sold out price like they are with most of them. Like it or not that is the direct price - you can’t get direct points for 217 at poly

All that says is that there are far more factors in resale prices than simple years left and original purchase price. Size (availability), location etc are parts of it. And resale restrictions are one of those factors without a doubt. Not long ago in a thread I had read how Riv was doing just fine with resale - it wasn't suffering from the resale restrictions. I finally looked at the resale market. If I were unaware of the whats and why's I'd have wondered what was wrong with it that it was doing so poorly as the new resort.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

The thing is, the fact that VDH has restrictions, the topic of the thread, relates to the debate about Poly 2, so it seems that any discussion about current resale restrictions is bound to include both resorts. But, that said, did anyone out there really think that VDH wouldn’t have them?

Not really. What they did just would have indicated the level of desperation for short term cash. Reducing the point minimum for new buyers shows there is some of that. I wonder a tiny bit if releasing the cash bookings 1st to gauge the interested helped them make the final decision.

 

[broncofan]

The thing is, the fact that VDH has restrictions, the topic of the thread, relates to the debate about Poly 2, so it seems that any discussion about current resale restrictions is bound to include both resorts. But, that said, did anyone out there really think that VDH wouldn’t have them?

I had the faintest sliver of hope. In the end though, I don’t like the restrictions but I think the business rationale for them is just exceptionally strong. There may be a slight sales velocity penalty for them, but it’s still clear they will sell out RR and VDH in due course despite any impact of the restrictions.

Basically they are going to be putting the newest resorts behind a direct buy only paywall. That should increase the premium buyers are willing to pay for direct vs resale over time. It will be especially true after 2042 if they decide to sell the expiring resorts again with the restrictions.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I think Disney’s line of thinking is that if someone buys direct then they can use it anywhere, so there really are no restrictions for those buyers.

Sell out a resort, let the resale value be materially lower because of restrictions, ROFR or foreclose , and resell as shiny new direct points.

 

[Aussie RJ]

I also think that if DVD did indeed fold Poly 2 into the existing association, it would make their long term strategy a confusing mess that no one would understand

If Poly 2 is part of the existing association I fail to see any confusion. If not then it's full steam ahead with restrictions.

Surely Poly 2 is the solution to the Studio only option at what should be DVC's flagship. Using a low cost prefab building which was meant for across the lake at FW.

 

[KimMcGowan]

All they have said is new DVC villas coming to the resort. Maybe it will be Luau Cove tower at Poly Villa resort?

I think your prediction is right on the money. Regardless of the decision to have a new association or not, I think the name was decided right when construction began - I am betting it is Luau Cove.

 

[Paul Stupin]

If Poly 2 is part of the existing association I fail to see any confusion. If not then it's full steam ahead with restrictions.

Surely Poly 2 is the solution to the Studio only option at what should be DVC's flagship. Using a low cost prefab building which was meant for across the lake at FW.

No confusion? Poly 2 will be a new build, and the last two were both restricted. If it’s not, it will undermine DVD’s business strategy and throw into doubt the status of new builds going forward. That’s confusing. And the additional doubt from consumers will benefit the resale market, not Disney. Why buy direct if there’s a chance your resale points can be used to book stays at a new resort?

I also disagree that Poly should be DVC’s flagship. In my opinion, it’s just too dated.

Construction does appear to be low cost, and was surprised to see they’re going prefab. Hopefully it’ll look good when finished.

 

[Chili327]

The thing is, did anyone out there really think that VDH wouldn’t have them?

I think most people expected VDH to have restrictions (w/hopes that it wouldnt), but i do think poly2 is definitely still up in the air… i think no restrictions.

 

[Curiousporpoise]

I wish Disney would stop with these restrictions, they are killing their own market. I planned to buy 400-500 points, but now I’m going to have to rethink that. I know Disney does not care, and my few points won’t make a difference in the grand scheme of things, but I guarantee it will take them longer to sell VDH than originally planned. My kids are young now, but in 15-20 years I might want to sell, and who will want to buy resale points that can only be used at one resort?

 

[Aussie RJ]

No confusion

Nope. Either no restrictions and part of existing association or restrictions and stand alone.

You make a good argument why Poly 2 won’t be part of the existing however. But I still believe Poly 2 is a quick fix to a 50 year problem using the plans and prefab at a low cost.

 

[Miffy]

I wish Disney would stop with these restrictions, they are killing their own market. I planned to buy 400-500 points, but now I’m going to have to rethink that. I know Disney does not care, and my few points won’t make a difference in the grand scheme of things, but I guarantee it will take them longer to sell VDH than originally planned. My kids are young now, but in 15-20 years I might want to sell, and who will want to buy resale points that can only be used at one resort?

You'd think resale restrictions would be a barrier to sales yet we're used to seeing knowledgeable DISers here. I think they're unusual and that many (most?) people who buy timeshares have zero thoughts of wanting to eventually unload it.

Take, for example, a couple I know who own a fancy-schmancy timeshare in Orlando (not DVC). They bought direct and now they want to unload it. Except, guess what? It's worthless. if they're lucky, the timeshare company will take it off their hands for a hefty fee. If not, they're stuck with it for forever. Yes, forever. No expiration date.

My point being that probably most people who buy DVC never factor in the possibility of wanting to or having to sell it at some point so the resale restrictions are meaningless to them.

 

[Sandisw]

You'd think resale restrictions would be a barrier to sales yet we're used to seeing knowledgeable DISers here. I think they're unusual and that many (most?) people who buy timeshares have zero thoughts of wanting to eventually unload it.

Take, for example, a couple I know who own a fancy-schmancy timeshare in Orlando (not DVC). They bought direct and now they want to unload it. Except, guess what? It's worthless. if they're lucky, the timeshare company will take it off their hands for a hefty fee. If not, they're stuck with it for forever. Yes, forever. No expiration date.

My point being that probably most people who buy DVC never factor in the possibility of wanting to or having to sell it at some point so the resale restrictions are meaningless to them.

As long as the parks exist, a DVC contract will never be worth zero and even if it is, there will be someone willing to take it off your hands.

Resale value only matters if you go in wanting to get your purchase prices back. If you go in, like we did, not caring, then restrictions don’t matter because we have full use of our direct points for as long as we own them.

 

[tom1944]

https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/...=7187b0dac13edd18cd4efd0652d2344e&action=view

I just watched this

Is the new resort just as close to GFA as it is to Poly?

It looks like it around 3:30 in the video

 

[Sandisw]

https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/...=7187b0dac13edd18cd4efd0652d2344e&action=view

I just watched this

Is the new resort just as close to GFA as it is to Poly?

It looks like it around 3:30 in the video

The space is what used to be where the Spirit of Aloha was so it’s definitely considered part of Poly.

Having walked between the two many times, it’s definitely closer to Poly.