News: Disneyland Hotel Villas to have Resale Restrictions

[ocdb8r1]

I strongly believe as more resorts come online with the same restrictions as Riviera we will see all of this balance out.

I think it depends on what you mean by "balance out".

First, I agree that over time the restrictions themselves will become less relevant...but it means the specific location of each resort will become more important. While this already plays into resale pricing to some extent, some of the less desirable resorts from a location perspective likely benefit from the "sleep around" potential (e.g. SSR and to some extent AKL). I also think this will happen sooner than people think as once resorts start to drop in 2042, people will properly internalize the reality of "resort hopping" with resale points going away.

Second, I agree things will eventually "balance out" within the resale market, it will be difficult to predict how things will play out between resale vs. direct as the "standalone resort" on resale reality sets in. If Disney keeps raising prices, I don't know how much lower resale pricing can go. Even if you put a (negative) value on the restrictions, I think current values are quite near lows (save for those resorts approaching expiration...which I think is ultimately what will start to hit resale value the most).

 

[take36]

VDH should sell well given the scarcity and how popular GCV is. Restrictions or not it’s the original and oldest, dvc members will want a piece of that.

 

[Sandisw]

@Sandisw - I did not say that Riviera is tanking or bottoming out, I said it is not holding its value and relative to newness and years remaining on the contract it is not holding what should be the "value"

@Nursemanit - you just keep fighting those windmills, the rest of us will be alright

Which is where we disagree...I do think that is is holding its value at an appropriate rate right now, given it is still in active sales and is, on average, selling for about the same discount of direct that historically, most new resorts do during the active selling phase.

And, right now, the past 4 months, everything is depressed, so we can't use the numbers for RIV in this market and say that the decline is resale restrictions but everything else is because of other factors. If all the other resorts are being impacted by the current conditions, then so is RIV.

Again, given the incentives that they have had on RIV, you can't expect as many resale buyers for it because the direct price is not that far off and worth the extra. It won't be until it is sold out, and DVD raises the direct price before we will see the true impact of what the resale buying market will sustain..

 

[tom1944]

I think the Poly will be a new association - should that be the case, I would still wait until contracts for the new Poly show up on the resale sites and buy it then if I wanted it. But I can certainly see why it would work for you. My kids don't want to be on our contract since they don't want to be saddled with dues they potentially can't afford - at least right now. That, of course, could change and if it does I'll add them. If they are interested in other resorts that are restricted then that's up to them to purchase them - not me. If I win the lottery - all bets are off!

As long as I am alive I pay the dues.

At the point I die my daughter can either sell or use the assets we leave her to continue ownership

Since she has no financial output on the purchase what she sells for really does not matter

 

[tom1944]

I actually think my combination of SSR resale points and potentially direct points at either Riviera or the new POLY resort will really be a perfect combination to get good value from the membership.

As new restricted resorts are built the direct points add more value.

 

[zavandor]

That has no relationship to the equation

If you go to Disney and say I will give you 217 per point for Poly - they will say no it is 250. And 10k points were sold at that price - so it is not unrealistic.

The math still stands

Ok, let's meet at Trader Sam in a few years when RR sells out and see how the resale price stands in comparison to Poly1. If RR is higher I'll pay you a drink, otherwise you pay me one.

 

[CraigInPA]

Nothing says "Forum" like reading a thread that was about VDH having resale restrictions and finding out that half of the discussion is about the Poly Tower and most of the rest are arguments for and against restrictions attempting to use various forms of math to prove the author's point.

Here's my $0.02:
VDH will do well despite restrictions.
Poly Tower will not have restrictions.
Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics. I'm called upon to prove things every day relating to traffic, conversion rates, and sales for a really huge company that you'd all know. Most of the time the marketing people want an answer that confirms their theory, and the data doesn't show it. But, the same question asked a different way can be proven by the data to be a valid theory. About the only thing we can say about resale restrictions having an effect on sales is that Disney wouldn't do it unless there was an advantage to Disney and they thought they could get away with it.

 

[Nursemanit]

Ok, let's meet at Trader Sam in a few years when RR sells out and see how the resale price stands in comparison to Poly1. If RR is higher I'll pay you a drink, otherwise you pay me one.

Since RR will be the only sensible purchase in the Epcot area as the other 2 wind down - I will take that bet.

 

[zavandor]

Since RR will be the only sensible purchase in the Epcot area as the other 2 wind down - I will take that bet.

For me any excuse is good to visit Trader Sam, so I'm a winner in any case

 

[Brian Noble]

Beach Club

I would argue that the anomaly is Beach Club, not Riviera. In particular, the comparison to Boardwalk is very different.

 

[Brian Noble]

know people say this but it just seems to defeat the purpose of making things different.

I have shared that I think it’s more likely we see them offer resale owners a chance to pay a per trip fee to access DVDs own points, similar to OTU points.

There are two other systems that have similar restrictions, in which buying something resale removes it from the larger club: Diamond (now part of Hilton) and Marriott. Both have ways of re-qualifying resales. Both are (large) one-time costs.

For Diamond, a resale reverts to its underlying resort/trust. It requires buying new retail points to re-qualify a similar number of resale points and bring them back into The Club.

For Marriott, pure points are useless if resold and require a (substantial) one-time fee to reactivate them. Marriott resale weeks are un-enrolled if they were bought after sometime in 2010, and revert to just floating weeks at their home resort. They can be re-enrolled, again with a new developer purchase. It is not as simple as Diamond's one-to-one model.

In contrast, I am not aware of any timeshare developer that has the one-time-use model that you are proposing. That doesn't mean that Disney won't do it, but it is a data point.

 

[ocdb8r1]

In contrast, I am not aware of any timeshare developer that has the one-time-use model that you are proposing. That doesn't mean that Disney won't do it, but it is a data point.

I agree, Brian. I think the administration of a "one time" bump for usage is not cost effective, especially compared to the potential of driving direct sales by offering to "requalify" a resale contract such that it has similar usage rights.

I would in fact argue that over time, it's possible DVC will NEED to offer such a program. If too many points at any one resort become "resale" points, unable to be used at other resorts, they cannot make inventory available at that resort (i.e. they can only permit exchanges IN to a resort where there are a similar number of points able to exchange OUT of that resort). It's possible no resort would ever reach a percentage where the number of owned points are "resale" points such that this makes an impact....but it could happen.

 

[peder]

I know people say this but it just seems to defeat the purpose of making things different.

I have shared that I think it’s more likely we see them offer resale owners a chance to pay a per trip fee to access DVDs own points, similar to OTU points.

100% agree with this perspective. It's likely that Disney sees an opportunity for ongoing revenue related to some sort of points marketplace, where either DVC owners exchange points or purchase more one-time-use points, and Disney will be in the middle of the transaction taking a cut.

 

[prs_14]

I also think this will happen sooner than people think as once resorts start to drop in 2042, people will properly internalize the reality of "resort hopping" with resale points going away.

I agree with this. Not exactly sure when this will happen, but at some point folks will realize that post-2042 there will be only 7 DVC resorts at WDW from which to choose if you buy resale from the original 14. And with each new property opened, the FOMO will grow, and resale prices for all of the "old" resorts will decline.

 

[Sparky984]

I would in fact argue that over time, it's possible DVC will NEED to offer such a program. If too many points at any one resort become "resale" points, unable to be used at other resorts, they cannot make inventory available at that resort (i.e. they can only permit exchanges IN to a resort where there are a similar number of points able to exchange OUT of that resort). It's possible no resort would ever reach a percentage where the number of owned points are "resale" points such that this makes an impact....but it could happen.

Things could get tight at some point, who knows how this plays out. I think what’s going to prevent the need is the 2042s. I think they get spaced out a bit or offer a different term length to do that for them. Not everyone wants 50 years anyway, so now they offer direct, active sale term flexibility/options. Then every few years you’ve got a resort deed ending where points, of which many will be resale, are all converting back to direct points to be resold. Where some resorts were tight, those still holding direct points will be interested in trying out the new/renovated hotel and alleviates some of that pressure and opening space for those resale points that can’t move around.

 

[Sparky984]

I agree with this. Not exactly sure when this will happen, but at some point folks will realize that post-2042 there will be only 7 DVC resorts at WDW from which to choose if you buy resale from the original 14. And with each new property opened, the FOMO will grow, and resale prices for all of the "old" resorts will decline.

For this reason, 2042s aren’t bad as the problem never gets worse, you just don’t get new options.

For all those expiring beyond 2042 it will get progressively harder, but by then it will be an accepted fact that you’re probably just staying where you buy…which is generally the advice given here anyway. I enjoy the flexibility of DVC but for many it’s not required. I know people who never stray from their home resort and people are buying Riviera resale already knowing this…and with 47 years left.

 

[intamin]

I agree with this. Not exactly sure when this will happen, but at some point folks will realize that post-2042 there will be only 7 DVC resorts at WDW from which to choose if you buy resale from the original 14. And with each new property opened, the FOMO will grow, and resale prices for all of the "old" resorts will decline.

Yep. This is definitely something to consider as time goes on. At the end of the day, only one thing is guaranteed which is your ability to book the resort where you bought in at. SAP are great and is the reason why I bought my subsidized Aulani contract but once 2042 rolls around and BRV, BWV and BCV that's 3 less resorts people are going to be able to switch into at 7 months. Fortunately I don't really care because I don't mind going to AUL every 2 years (oh no, going to Hawai'i, twist my arm ).Admittedly those overall have a somewhat small inventory already so it was hard to switch at 7 months there but even so the SSR SAP people who would've booked BRV/BWV/BCV are now being forced into the other resorts at 7 months and make the priority booking even more important.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

After 2041 resale owners will be able to choose from OKW, SSR, AKV, AUL, VGC, VGF (1 and 2), Poly (1 and perhaps 2), CCV, and BLT. 9 resorts. We lose BCV, BWV, and BRV, but those in total are like 15% of the DVC system. It’s not going to change much for SAP.

And then after the three largest WDW resorts, OKW, SSR, and AKL, expire in a 3 year period in the 2050s, it will be just a little elite resort club, and I imagine switching resorts will be very easy.

im not seeing the future you all are.

 

[Sandisw]

After 2041 resale owners will be able to choose from OKW, SSR, AKV, AUL, VGC, VGF (1 and 2), Poly (1 and perhaps 2), CCV, and BLT. 9 resorts. We lose BCV, BWV, and BRV, but those in total are like 15% of the DVC system. It’s not going to change much for SAP.

And then after the three largest WDW resorts, OKW, SSR, and AKL, expire in a 3 year period in the 2050s, it will be just a little elite resort club, and I imagine switching resorts will be very easy.

im not seeing the future you all are.

Where it could be an issue is that many owners now want to leave the big three and go to the near park resorts.

So, what you very well could see in 2042 is that booking at BLT and CCR especially due to lower point charts is going to be much harder or that people may be forced into paying for the higher resorts like VGF and PVB if they want to be close to resorts.

The notion of SAPs is going to be different.

 

[sndral]

After 2041 resale owners will be able to choose from OKW, SSR, AKV, AUL, VGC, VGF (1 and 2), Poly (1 and perhaps 2), CCV, and BLT. 9 resorts. We lose BCV, BWV, and BRV, but those in total are like 15% of the DVC system. It’s not going to change much for SAP.

And then after the three largest WDW resorts, OKW, SSR, and AKL, expire in a 3 year period in the 2050s, it will be just a little elite resort club, and I imagine switching resorts will be very easy.

im not seeing the future you all are.

Well, resale owners who bought in 2019 or later will be barred from restricted resorts, there’ll still be many grandfathered resale owners able to book the new resorts.