New Owner - Direct vs. Resale

[sethschroeder]

The fact that the resale buyer can only stay at Riviera instead of being able to stay at all of the current resorts (minus Riviera) will likely hurt Riviera in resale in the future compared to the other resorts.

Just to point it out every year we get closer to 2042 the less options current resale buyers are going to have more people buy to stay at the 2042 resorts themselves. In 2042 you will only be able to move to MK but thing is will you?

You assume there will be space in VGF, POLY, BLT, or CCV. CCV already has issues by itself, POLY only has Studios (so might eliminate it for you), and now you are left with just BLT/VGF.

So if your flexibility is for AKV, SSR, OKW, or AUL then I guess but is that a large benefit (nope not getting VGC likely that often). I have broken down the room quantities before for this as well.

You are losing a significant percentage of bookable rooms in the most sought after location within DVC (Epcot/MK area).

For total rooms just at WDW:
4679 total rooms in the resorts without restrictions
25% at MK
17% at Epcot
13% at AK
44% at SSR/OKW

In 2042:
20% of rooms will expire (all near MK/Epcot)
28% of rooms by MK
0% of rooms by Epcot
16% of rooms by AK
56% of rooms at SSR/OKW
14% loss of rooms by MK/Epcot (SSR/OKW rooms increase by 27% of total pool of rooms)


There are currently 25,485,757 points in resorts next to MK or EPCOT without resale restrictions:
39% of points pool that are next to MK/EPCOT will expire
100% of points pool that are next to EPCOT will expire in 2042
17% of points pool that are next to MK will expire in 2042

Currently there are 70,230,462 points in resorts without resale restrictions:
25% of points are next to MK
11% of points are next to Epcot
11% of points are next to AK
31% of points are OKW/SSR

In 2042 there will be 57,367,132 points left in resorts without resale restrictions:
23% of points will be next to MK
0% of points will be next to Epcot
13% of points will be next to AK
38% of points will be OKW/SSR
13% loss of points by MK/EPCOT

And yes someone will say "I get VGC whenever I want and 2x on Sunday" which is fine but that is the slim minority and without as limited as options that will be occurring in the future.

 

[Marionnette]

I'll answer this point solely. Number of new resorts in the next 25 years, let's call it..

Essentially the minimum number:
Disneyland Tower
Beach Club VIllas II
Boardwalk Villas II
Boulder Ridge Villas II
Hilton Head Villas II (unless Disney simply dissolves DVC there)
Vero Beach Villas II (unless Disney simply dissolves the location)

That's 5-7 minimum.

Additionally -- Can expect they will EVENTUALLY return to the Reflections development, and likely build in 1-2 new locations during the next 2 decades.

So how many do I expect -- At the point Riviera contract reaches mid-age, I expect 7-10 new resorts. I expect "original" resorts will be down to 9 resorts.
Meaning, I expect in 25 years, that non-direct purchasers will be limited to only about 50% of the resort locations, including no available locations in the Epcot/DHS area.

I believe that it’s a given that 1 resort will be added to DVC in the near future. That resort being the Disneyland tower in 2023, giving direct buyers the additional choice of 2 resorts over what a resale purchaser can access. Resale purchasers will still have access to 14 resorts.

Fast forward 21 years from now, when those 2042 resorts expire. If I own at one of the 2042 resorts, my contract is done and I might be considering a direct purchase at one of the newer resorts. Or I might just be done with Disney completely. If I bought direct at RIV, my contract is almost half finished and I just lost 6 resorts that I previously was able to trade into. They’re not going to be available to trade into until units are declared by DVD as villas in new resorts and that will be dependent on how quickly renovations can be completed and how brisk sales are (both being at the whims of the economy), and whether DVC decides to even keep them as a part of DVC I.

IMO, the expiration of the 2042 resorts would be the perfect time to create a DVC II. You have 4 (well, 3+) ready-made resorts in WDW that just need some sprucing up and voila! I can see them taking their time, completing the renovations of those 4 resorts so as to spread out the sales and future expiration dates. Trading would still be thru the Buena Vista Trading Company but “trading power” could be something like 3.0 RIV : 2.0 BCV2, or 4.0 SSR : 2.0 BWV2. There’s nothing to prevent that from happening. It’s in the POS. BVTC can also charge an exchange fee if demand at a particular resort is out of sync with another resorts. Right now, we all trade for free into non-home resorts thru the BVTC. It’s just that it’s a 1:1 trade and it’s done seamlessly, without anyone being the wiser. However, the option to change things up does exist.

If I’ve learned anything new about DVC over the past couple of years, it’s that they will try to skirt around timeshare law, purposefully make their own rules ambiguous and do not always act with the best interest of their members in mind. Right now, the only thi

 

[aoconnor]

I think your reasoning on the benefits of direct vs. resale is sound HOWEVER - do you love the resort and plan on staying there most of the time? That's more important, IMO. I wouldn't buy it just because it's the direct resort they happen to be selling now.

 

[havoc315]

Trading would still be thru the Buena Vista Trading Company but “trading power” could be something like 3.0 RIV : 2.0 BCV2, or 4.0 SSR : 2.0 BWV2. There’s nothing to prevent that from happening. It’s in the POS. BVTC can also charge an exchange fee if demand at a particular resort is out of sync with another resorts. Right now, we all trade for free into non-home resorts thru the BVTC. It’s just that it’s a 1:1 trade and it’s done seamlessly, without anyone being the wiser. However, the option to change things up does exist.

They already can affect the real-world trading value by introducing new point charts for the new resort, and with different point costs.
For example, they could make BCV2 1,000 points per night... While only charging $5 per point. That would give BCVII buyers massive trading power into the old resorts, and make it nearly impossible for old resort buyers to trade into BCVII.
No reason to resort to a 3:2 system... which would create a massive point imbalance. Even what I suggested, would create a massive point problem -- Buyers of DVCII would overwhelm the supply of DVCI at booking.

But even under the scenario I indicated, why would Disney do that?

Looking at it another way -- A big selling point of any timeshare club is property diversity -- whether the Marriot timeshare club, Hyatt, whichever... huge value in being able to book multiple locations. So why would Disney ruin this incentive by limiting 2042 new DVCs to just 4 properties, when there would be much greater value in offering 15 resorts!

To me, there is no chance that future DVC will have a wall against older DVC.

That doesn't mean there is no danger: There has been a trend AWAY from timeshares, towards Condo-tels.
Come 2042, Disney could stop doing new DVC at all. They could convert Beach Club Villas to Condos... Sell them as individual units. Instead of getting $20,000-40,000 per buyer, and having to sell million of points... Sell 300 units at $2 million each! And the new owners of those condos could rent out their units to others for most of the year.. with Disney making money as the property manager!

That's the greatest danger to DVC, or something like it. But to me, there is no danger that DVCII would have a firewall against DVC1.

 

[kandlsutton]

I think your reasoning on the benefits of direct vs. resale is sound HOWEVER - do you love the resort and plan on staying there most of the time? That's more important, IMO. I wouldn't buy it just because it's the direct resort they happen to be selling now.

Our kids (26, 20, and 16) love the resort and actually contributed to the decision to pursue direct purchase at Riviera. DH and I stayed at YC in Oct 2019 and loved the proximity to HS and EPCOT and feel like this location is similar and has Skyliner access (can’t stand waiting for a bus). We are now planning a trip for early December 2021 as a family of 7, and the room size and bed configuration (King, 2 queens, plus the queen murphy bed) of the 2BR Villa is what I really like. SSR also has similar bed configuration, but no direct park access. And even though the tower studios are small, DH and I may try them out if we have some extra points.

We absolutely love AK, Poly and WL, but we no longer have little kids and the MK draw just isn't there (for now). RIV is more centrally located than AKV and CCR, which also makes more sense to us.

 

[Eric Smith]

Just to point it out every year we get closer to 2042 the less options current resale buyers are going to have more people buy to stay at the 2042 resorts themselves. In 2042 you will only be able to move to MK but thing is will you?

You assume there will be space in VGF, POLY, BLT, or CCV. CCV already has issues by itself, POLY only has Studios (so might eliminate it for you), and now you are left with just BLT/VGF.

So if your flexibility is for AKV, SSR, OKW, or AUL then I guess but is that a large benefit (nope not getting VGC likely that often). I have broken down the room quantities before for this as well.



And yes someone will say "I get VGC whenever I want and 2x on Sunday" which is fine but that is the slim minority and without as limited as options that will be occurring in the future.

VGF, Poly, BLT, CCV, SSR, OKW, AKV, Aulani and VGC give you a lot better chance than just being able to stay at Riviera (or any other future resort).

 

[RanDIZ]

I'll answer this point solely. Number of new resorts in the next 25 years, let's call it..

Essentially the minimum number:
Disneyland Tower
Beach Club VIllas II
Boardwalk Villas II
Boulder Ridge Villas II
Hilton Head Villas II (unless Disney simply dissolves DVC there)
Vero Beach Villas II (unless Disney simply dissolves the location)

That's 5-7 minimum.

Additionally -- Can expect they will EVENTUALLY return to the Reflections development, and likely build in 1-2 new locations during the next 2 decades.

So how many do I expect -- At the point Riviera contract reaches mid-age, I expect 7-10 new resorts. I expect "original" resorts will be down to 9 resorts.
Meaning, I expect in 25 years, that non-direct purchasers will be limited to only about 50% of the resort locations, including no available locations in the Epcot/DHS area.

These are all great points. Disney is slowly washing out the resale market. I intend to dump my resales in 10 years, hopefully for a nice profit, then just buy direct. Resales are only becoming more restricted with less options. I don't see how any of the 2042's will get over $100/pt in 10-12 years.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

RIV is a beautiful resort buy direct and enjoy it!

 

[5th gate dreamers]

Advice on the boards and various websites indicate that buying direct at Riviera is a non-starter for a lot of people. However, I”m guessing this advice is probably coming from existing owners that do not have restrictions on their current points.

But as a potential new owner, I have a few other considerations:
1. I am not buying for an investment and don’t plan on selling.
2. I will not be financing the purchase.
3. I will not be around in 2070, but my 3 children will.
4. We still have 20-30 years to enjoy Disney with our adult kids and one day grandkids.
5. Buying direct will allow us, and my kids down the road, a ton of flexibility for booking all existing future resorts.

The resale limitations are probably here to stay. IMO, new owners aren't in the same situation as existing owners who don”t have to worry about point restrictions. All resales are now subject to the “inverse” limitations - resale contracts won’t be able to book at any new resorts and that seems like a big negative over the next 50 years. Granted, the limitations at RIV are harsher because resale buyers here will only be able to book at one resort. I’m not planning on selling but I’m also not planning on buying RIV resale either.

My biggest regret is I didn’t pull the trigger in 2016 for PVB at $168pp. But I can get RIV at $180pp today (5 years later) and I believe $pp will continue to increase as it has historically. I can’t see paying $200pp for Copper Creek when I can get it resale for $140-150.

$180pp is higher than resale, but doesn’t the future flexibilty and additional years on the contract have value as well?

What am I missing?

Thanks for any additional thoughts!

This was us exactly...1, this isn't an investment and you never need to sell (you can just rent your points for the rest of your contract if you've had enough of disney). 2, we did not finance. Skip to 5, flexibility to book all resorts. We sold all of our other points and dove headfirst into riviera and people in your situation should do the same. Resale restrictions are hopefully here to stay and it behooves you to buy direct if you want full access to the dvc menu. 50 years is a long time and who knows what your taste will be for in 5 years, let alone 20 or 40.

The counter argument of the "boo riviera" crowd isn't a counter to "I understand this is prepaid vacations and nothing more and want full access to resorts". They are two separate angles. One angle is "I want access to some amount of disney for the cheapest price possible" while your (and our) angle is "I have a little more to spend and want the full treatment". It's like economy car fans vs luxury car buyers...neither is right or wrong. One wants as cheap a way as possible from point a to point b, and the other is buying more than that.
Your kids and grandkids will appreciate in 35 years that you spent a little (or a lot...whatever) more today for a full menu of 20 or so dvc resorts.

 

[sethschroeder]

If I bought direct at RIV, my contract is almost half finished and I just lost 6 resorts that I previously was able to trade into.

You likely didn't lose because more than likely the ones that matter (WDW locations) are coming back in to DVC. Plus guess what if BWV/BCV leave DVC then RIV just became that much more valuable as the only Epcot resort.

Fast forward 21 years from now, when those 2042 resorts expire. If I own at one of the 2042 resorts, my contract is done and I might be considering a direct purchase at one of the newer resorts. Or I might just be done with Disney completely.

This is something people have to ask. Is the same concept if you are 60 obviously you might not care about a 50 year contract but for someone 30 its a bigger deal.

I would say its a large downside (IMO) to need to buy back in to DVC in 20-30 years time for just 10-20 years of usage. All the "benefit" to DVC is years 15-50 as all cost is front loaded. Its why I decided to sell off some of my BWV for RIV so I didn't have another upfront expenditure when I am post kids college and thinking about early retirement.

IMO, the expiration of the 2042 resorts would be the perfect time to create a DVC II.

I personally don't see it. There is no benefit to a DVC 2.0 instead of just slowly adjusting the system like they have now with RIV resale restrictions.

Trading would still be thru the Buena Vista Trading Company but “trading power” could be something like 3.0 RIV : 2.0 BCV2, or 4.0 SSR : 2.0 BWV2. There’s nothing to prevent that from happening.

This is possible sure but...

It’s in the POS.

This statement is the .... where just because something can be done does not mean its useful or beneficial to do so. Disney has not intention to stop selling DVC. By making large sweeping changes, making things even more complicated (upfront like resort trading), and by doing other aspects they hurt the brand and their ability to sell.

A great example is resale restrictions which have 0 impact to direct buyers. It accomplishes something Disney wants without really any direct impact to those purchasing from them.

For example, they could make BCV2 1,000 points per night... While only charging $5 per point.

Great example on how it can be controlled long term. While I have thought about exchange rates at times with DVC the one thing I know is that it would make it way more complicated to the point that it could slow down direct sales.

VGF, Poly, BLT, CCV, SSR, OKW, AKV, Aulani and VGC give you a lot better chance than just being able to stay at Riviera (or any other future resort).

For a RIV resale buyer it will come down to knowing the restrictions. Not banking normal years so that if something comes up you can bank. Renting out spec reservations will also possibly be more common for the resale buyer who can't go last minute. I will also mention at RIV there is not "wasted" points as an example 33% of the CCV points are in Cabins which causes a shortage within its own points pool. Plus remember its a longer contract so pricing will reflect possibly completely losing multiple years of points ($125 resale price vs CCV at $145).

For the remainder of the original resorts how many of those points will have "flipped" and are locked to only booking that resort pool as well on a dwindling list of resorts at WDW. Of those in that group what is the draw of VGC/VGF/BLT/CCV to book elsewhere and open up availability? In addition 20% of the points will be at AUL.

In the end when we hit 2042 there is likely going to be a tightening across the board for the OG resale group.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Advice on the boards and various websites indicate that buying direct at Riviera is a non-starter for a lot of people. However, I”m guessing this advice is probably coming from existing owners that do not have restrictions on their current points.

But as a potential new owner, I have a few other considerations:
1. I am not buying for an investment and don’t plan on selling.
2. I will not be financing the purchase.
3. I will not be around in 2070, but my 3 children will.
4. We still have 20-30 years to enjoy Disney with our adult kids and one day grandkids.
5. Buying direct will allow us, and my kids down the road, a ton of flexibility for booking all existing future resorts.

The resale limitations are probably here to stay. IMO, new owners aren't in the same situation as existing owners who don”t have to worry about point restrictions. All resales are now subject to the “inverse” limitations - resale contracts won’t be able to book at any new resorts and that seems like a big negative over the next 50 years. Granted, the limitations at RIV are harsher because resale buyers here will only be able to book at one resort. I’m not planning on selling but I’m also not planning on buying RIV resale either.

My biggest regret is I didn’t pull the trigger in 2016 for PVB at $168pp. But I can get RIV at $180pp today (5 years later) and I believe $pp will continue to increase as it has historically. I can’t see paying $200pp for Copper Creek when I can get it resale for $140-150.

$180pp is higher than resale, but doesn’t the future flexibilty and additional years on the contract have value as well?

What am I missing?

Thanks for any additional thoughts!

1) Most don't buy for investment and most don't plan to sell. But many end up selling for some reason or another - life is not always predictable. I go in with the thought it's good to consider exit strategy and RIV doesn't provide the best.
2) non-factor for direct vs resale
3) That can just as easily be a burden instead of a positive.
4) It's 21 years until any DVC resort expires so your timeframe fits within most or all the DVC resorts.
5) Several resorts have been cancelled by DVC over the years and even they point out to not count on anything else ever being built. Of course it will as long as it continues to make money for them. For myself there's already an excellent selection that I must decide between. And yes I do have points that allow me to stay at new resorts but I'm actually good with what there is now. If I didn't that would be ok as owning points that allow stays at new resorts isn't necessary to stay at them for the odd time or two. I could rent out my points and rent at the new resort or get a transfer or just pay cash. The future resorts are touted by DVC as something you want to own access to but it was added to DVC to create FOMO. If there's something that comes along that you absolutely love and want to stay at almost exclusively then you probably would want to buy there anyway.

This caught my eye:
"I can’t see paying $200pp for Copper Creek when I can get it resale for $140-150.

$180pp is higher than resale, but doesn’t the future flexibilty and additional years on the contract have value as well?"

Buying either resort direct will get you access to future benefits and resorts. If you sell one of them it will allow a new buyer access to 14 resorts. If you sell the other it will allow the new buyer access to 1 resort. And the direct to resale price difference is pretty similar. I don't necessarily recommend CCV though because of availability issues.

I've already outlined why I discount value in staying at future (unknown) resorts. For the odd time or two there are plenty of other ways to stay at them.

 

[Brian Noble]

(emphasis added)

But with that mentality, nobody should buy DVC, period. Not direct or re-sale. Unless you expect to break even within 2-3 years (not really mathematically possible), you really can't rely on anything.

Interestingly, that's a great summary of why we didn't buy DVC just over a dozen years ago---we put the payoff horizon at something like 7-10 years, and that seemed too uncertain for us. Looking back, that was a good decision. Mind you, we could have made a purchase work, but there were definitely major changes in how/where/with whom we vacationed that we did not anticipate during that 7-10 years.

 

[Lorana]

That's where the O14 are a known quantity, as opposed to the locked down RIV. I actually think RIV and future restrictions will help VGF resale in the future.

For the same reason people are arguing we don't know the future of RIV, we also don't know the future of O14 resorts on the resale market. Disney could continue to introduce new restrictions, as you are only ever promised access to your home resort.

I think it IS worth considering the possibility that your DVC purchase cannot be sold in 10-20 for anything near its current value, and I feel that is true for whether you buy RIV Direct or O14 resale, and then determine if that proves true, are you comfortable with that risk.

 

[Eric Smith]

For the same reason people are arguing we don't know the future of RIV, we also don't know the future of O14 resorts on the resale market. Disney could continue to introduce new restrictions, as you are only ever promised access to your home resort.

I think it IS worth considering the possibility that your DVC purchase cannot be sold in 10-20 for anything near its current value, and I feel that is true for whether you buy RIV Direct or O14 resale, and then determine if that proves true, are you comfortable with that risk.

I don't think they can modify anything on contracts that already exist. It's written in the contract which resorts you have the ability to use points at the original DVC resorts. Here's the relevant part of my contract:

"Resale contracts purchased for the existing 14 Disney Vacation Club Resorts will only be able to exchange Points into those 14 Resorts. "

They could always further restrict resale in the future.

 

[CastAStone]

Advice on the boards and various websites indicate that buying direct at Riviera is a non-starter for a lot of people. However, I”m guessing this advice is probably coming from existing owners that do not have restrictions on their current points.

But as a potential new owner, I have a few other considerations:
1. I am not buying for an investment and don’t plan on selling.
2. I will not be financing the purchase.
3. I will not be around in 2070, but my 3 children will.
4. We still have 20-30 years to enjoy Disney with our adult kids and one day grandkids.
5. Buying direct will allow us, and my kids down the road, a ton of flexibility for booking all existing future resorts.

The resale limitations are probably here to stay. IMO, new owners aren't in the same situation as existing owners who don”t have to worry about point restrictions. All resales are now subject to the “inverse” limitations - resale contracts won’t be able to book at any new resorts and that seems like a big negative over the next 50 years. Granted, the limitations at RIV are harsher because resale buyers here will only be able to book at one resort. I’m not planning on selling but I’m also not planning on buying RIV resale either.

My biggest regret is I didn’t pull the trigger in 2016 for PVB at $168pp. But I can get RIV at $180pp today (5 years later) and I believe $pp will continue to increase as it has historically. I can’t see paying $200pp for Copper Creek when I can get it resale for $140-150.

$180pp is higher than resale, but doesn’t the future flexibilty and additional years on the contract have value as well?

What am I missing?

Thanks for any additional thoughts!

My rules for Riviera are if you 1) LOVE the resort and will stay there most of the time, and 2) are VERY confident you won’t sell in the next 20 years, enjoy! YOLO and all that.

If either of those isn’t true, it’s a bad idea because of the resale risk and because there’s better ways to get points to use across lots of resorts.

 

[Sandisw]

I don't think they can modify anything on contracts that already exist. It's written in the contract which resorts you have the ability to use points at the original DVC resorts. Here's the relevant part of my contract:

"Resale contracts purchased for the existing 14 Disney Vacation Club Resorts will only be able to exchange Points into those 14 Resorts. "

They could always further restrict resale in the future.

BVTC can decide to remove any of the O14 resorts from trading at anytime they want. So, even owners of those resorts could be stuck,

However, if that happened, it would impact all owners of that resort, not just resale. But, I can definitely see them remove the 2042 resorts a few years before expiration from the club and those owners stuck only there,

If by then, there are 3 or 4 new resorts, and are part of the club, those with direct points will be even more valuable.

 

[Sandisw]

My rules for Riviera are if you 1) LOVE the resort and will stay there most of the time, and 2) are VERY confident you won’t sell in the next 20 years, enjoy! YOLO and all that.

If either of those isn’t true, it’s a bad idea because of the resale risk and because there’s better ways to get points to use across lots of resorts.

I definitely agree with owning RIV if you want to stay at RIV at least for some of your trips.

However, I don’t necessarily agree with the entire 20 years. I think you need to decide what the loss of selling RIV might be if you had to sell short term and whether it is still worth it,

Even now, an owner of RIV, should be able to get 50% back if they sold in 5 years, if the trends continue.

I personally hate having restricted points, now that I do.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

BVTC can decide to remove any of the O14 resorts from trading at anytime they want. So, even owners of those resorts could be stuck,

However, if that happened, it would impact all owners of that resort, not just resale. But, I can definitely see them remove the 2042 resorts a few years before expiration from the club and those owners stuck only there,

If by then, there are 3 or 4 new resorts, and are part of the club, those with direct points will be even more valuable.

As that means nobody else could trade in either, and a lot of the resorts are very popular with all members, I think it's extremely unlikely for them to be removed. Probably not even at the end.

 

[Sandisw]

As that means nobody else could trade in either, and a lot of the resorts are very popular with all members, I think it's extremely unlikely for them to be removed. Probably not even at the end.

Maybe, but I was pointing it out because many new people considering don’t realize that they get to trade because of it being included and that it can change...but it can’t become a resale vs direct change.

As far as 2042, I could see it for sure..20 years to go to find out!

 

[Lorana]

I don't think they can modify anything on contracts that already exist. It's written in the contract which resorts you have the ability to use points at the original DVC resorts. Here's the relevant part of my contract:

"Resale contracts purchased for the existing 14 Disney Vacation Club Resorts will only be able to exchange Points into those 14 Resorts. "

They could always further restrict resale in the future.

That's the point I'm making. If the point is to not get RIV because of the resale restrictions when you sell, it's also possible that there will be additional resale restrictions on O14 contracts as well, especially given that Disney HAS been introducing more and more restrictions on resale over the last few years. If Disney opted in the future to restrict all resale, you'd be in the same situation with any resort you tried to resell later on.