New neighbor construction update w/photos

[bama_ed]

I don't think the C19 virus will affect timing as much as Riviera DVC sales will, bookwormde.

Before the virus, I watched one of the DIS Unplugged podcasts which said the initial few months of Riviera had trailed the sales rates of similar past DVC projects. If sales are slow and incentives don't help very much, they might slow Reflections until they sell enough Riviera points to give Reflections sales a chance. They typically don't want two properties one cannibalizing sales off the other. Typically they want a good portion of the points of the "current" property sold before they bring a new DVC property on-line.

It's conceivable Disney could bring the hotel portion to completion and slow roll the DVC completion (interiors mostly I guess). But at that point most of the expense has been incurred so they would want to generate revenue.

I have Fort trips planned for Oct20 and Feb21 while the new unit will still be under construction. There's no rush to finish it as far as I'm concerned.

Bama Ed

 

[bookwormde]

I don't think the C19 virus will affect timing as much as Riviera DVC sales will, bookwormde.

Before the virus, I watched one of the DIS Unplugged podcasts which said the initial few months of Riviera had trailed the sales rates of similar past DVC projects. If sales are slow and incentives don't help very much, they might slow Reflections until they sell enough Riviera points to give Reflections sales a chance. They typically don't want two properties one cannibalizing sales off the other. Typically they want a good portion of the points of the "current" property sold before they bring a new DVC property on-line.

It's conceivable Disney could bring the hotel portion to completion and slow roll the DVC completion (interiors mostly I guess). But at that point most of the expense has been incurred so they would want to generate revenue.

I have Fort trips planned for Oct20 and Feb21 while the new unit will still be under construction. There's no rush to finish it as far as I'm concerned.

Bama Ed

I agree the likely further slow down in RR sales will have an impact, but given the lead times, 300 to 400 % profit margin and other "issues" with RR Reflections will be essential to Disney profit (or at least loss mitigation) is essential which is which is why I think it will be of limited duration

Disney has had a bite out of the apple of being in the process of building a hotel and having to shut it down and leave it part completed and empty for many years., so the likelihood of risking that seams unlikely.

 

[gatour]

Remember they stopped construction of one of the value resorts for several years. The buildings sat as empty shells for a period of time. They might have to do a bit a work to get to a mothball status but it is not unprecedented for Disney to stop construction.

 

[Teamubr]

Remember they stopped construction of one of the value resorts for several years.

That was AoA and a result of the 2008 economy tank.

j

 

[daverene]

There is a lot on them stopping reflections on line. There saying that the construction will more than likely stop Disney is slashing every thing they can expecting low crowds for a while

 

[PaHunter]

Just a guess, I expect them to finish the Star Wars hotel, the Star Wars group will come. Reflections, could see them stopping on it for awhile. Tron needs to get done and well half of Epcot is demolished. Maybe they will wait to refurb Spaceship Earth. We will see as things go along.

 

[rideswithchrist]

That was AoA and a result of the 2008 economy tank.

j

http://jimhillmedia.com/columnists1/b/jeff_lange/archive/2006/04/13/1813.aspx
That was actually Pop Century's Legendary Years. I wish we had our lost photos of the old buildings across the water with the giant numbers on them; we stayed at Pop in 2004 and you could walk down the bridge and it just ended and you could see the buildings with the board saying it was going to be the 1900-1940s. I like how they created AoA out of it, but the idea of Vintage Mickey from the 1920s is SO much cooler.
In all likely hood, this will be an economy tank, partly because of people not working and partly because those not wanting to spend it all and deciding to SAVE their money because this pulled the rug out from under so many who thought their jobs were "essential" or at the very least, stable.

I think Chris is right though, anything IN park will be more important than Reflections, and the Star Wars hotel will drum more revenue at first. Epcot needs to be finished! There also could be a limiting of capacity for a year after this covid stuff, so why build another DVC when you can't allow that many people in parks.

The only ones who will see the unfinished resort is us poor Fort dwellers anyway, and we shall just giggle as the boat passes by.

 

[bookwormde]

Permit work for more of the reflections auxiliary structures posted today

 

[Teamubr]

Permit work for more of the reflections auxiliary structures posted today

Here's the link. So much for the rumors of a long furlough for Reflections.

We can still practice "social distancing" when it opens.

j

 

[PaHunter]

Disney also has plans filed for their own Nuclear reactor to provide power, that has never happened. ROI comes to mind, and honestly how many people are going to be looking to buy a high end high roller DVC. Certainly not the record number of unemployed. They may surprise me and finish Reflections, but until they know how the public reacts to this and if they will return and the numbers, not a sure bet. At least not according to my bus driver.

 

[Brett Wyman]

Here's the link. So much for the rumors of a long furlough for Reflections.

We can still practice "social distancing" when it opens.

j

Glad to hear its not on the, possible imaginary, "Defunded" list.

 

[StormyCA]

Just out of curiosity, as of right now has it just been 'land clearing' and maybe some boundary markers put down or has any actual construction begun?

I'm hoping they 'furlough' the construction, too. Wonder how long those permits are good for?

 

[Teamubr]

Stormy,

The permits expire April 2021, so 1 year. There has been a lot more than land clearing. The new stables have gone vertical a while ago. Reports are footings have been poured in some areas and work in the pool area is starting to take shape (retaining walls, foundations).

While is isn't visibly far along, except the stables, once this foundational work is done, it will start to really progress.

j

 

[bookwormde]

one of the permitted items was the new docks. With the size of these it was going to be logistically challenging to install the pilings while maintaining the FW transportation boats and recreational boats, so beginning them now would make a lot of sense

One of the other ones was for a TS restaurant so I am wondering if that might be the changes at HDDR which again would be less disruptive if done now

 

[Stork]

....One of the other ones was for a TS restaurant so I am wondering if that might be the changes at HDDR which again would be less disruptive if done now

bookwormde, help me out here with the abbreviations and acronyms. What's a TS restaurant? And what is HDDR? Thanks.

 

[bookwormde]

bookwormde, me out here with the abbreviations and acronyms. What's a TS restaurant? And what is HDDR? Thanks.

TS is table service HDDR is Hoops-De-Doo Review sp?

 

[StormyCA]

Stormy,

The permits expire April 2021, so 1 year. There has been a lot more than land clearing. The new stables have gone vertical a while ago. Reports are footings have been poured in some areas and work in the pool area is starting to take shape (retaining walls, foundations).

While is isn't visibly far along, except the stables, once this foundational work is done, it will start to really progress.

j

Thanks!

We're planning on May 2021 and we like the 100 loop so I keep hoping against hope that there will be no (visible) construction going on. I was figuring the less that's already started the 'easier' it may be for them to decide to just wait a year (or ten). Sigh. Guess I'm going to have to put my Pollyanna hat back up on that shelf in the closet.

But I will still play the 'Glad Game' inasmuch as I'll still be glad to get back to the Fort even if they have a jackhammer going off next to our trailer!

As far as them 'canning' the whole she-bang, well, "a dream is a wish your heart makes".

 

[Cousin Ed C]

They are WAY beyond just site prep. We left on March 20 and there were many many footings at least 12' x 12 ' with 30 or 40 4-5' re rods in each. These were quite substantial! This started just beyond Pioneer Hall then into River Country (which is now just a memory.

 

[Stork]

TS is table service HDDR is Hoops-De-Doo Review sp?

THANKS. ANOTHER "DUH" MOMENT FOR ME. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

 

[amcc]

Rteez, mod over in the Rumors forum, is reporting that this project is cancelled or on indefinite hold. I want to be happy because of the Fort but it makes me sad that this situation is impacting so much.