New DVC Contract for Wilderness Lodge?

[RaymOOOnd]

I don't like that the current villas are not a part of the actual lodge. I also think that the current resale prices are too high given the contract expiration date. Keep in mind that the yearly cost in dues can approach the cost of a stay in a cash room, especially at a place like Wilderness (not true at resorts with crazy-expensive regular rooms like Contemporary and GF). I would wait on the issuing of the new points if I were you, rather than regret that you took a not-so-great deal and potentially look enviously toward the new offering when it is announced.

 

[jerseyduke]

I was calculating from $180, the guessed retail price of VWL2. I was not calculating from $95 which is the current resale price of VWL1. As I indicated in my edit, I am not sure I am happy with the numbers since I don't know the full history of resale prices for VWL1. I am pretty sure your number of 167 is low since that would have the resale of VWL2 being below the original retail price.

Depends on how you look at it. For example, when SSR first opened the points cost $1.90 each. When I purchased my resale contract last year they were worth $2.05 each. Looking around now, it looks like they are averaging $2.23 each. From an IRS standpoint, that is more value. From an adjusting for inflation standpoint, that is less value.

I was bringing 95$ current value into 2042. Bringing 180$ into 2042 (using the established 2.2%) is indeed 310.

You are taking the price per point, and making it a price per point per year; and that is not something you can do, because they are not equal year to year.

Think about it, you are making the assertion that VWL2@ at 180 per point, is the same value as VWL1@95 per point. If that is the case, then buying them on the resale market makes virtually no sense, since it is not a better value.

Another way to look at it; you can rent out your current SS points for about 14$ per point. they are worth 14$ each, but you can not buy them for 2.23$ resale right now... how much can you rent out your 2052 points for right now? That is not to say the points are worthless in general; they just have a current value of 0. That will change. But that is exactly why time must be factored into the math.

 

[ColinBlair]

Think about it, you are making the assertion that VWL2@ at 180 per point, is the same value as VWL1@95 per point. If that is the case, then buying them on the resale market makes virtually no sense, since it is not a better value.

I find the conversation fun and interesting, I am worried that we are off topic for this thread. Would you be interested in moving to the thread where I am discussing my numbers? Also, if there are improvements that can be made, I would love to make them: http://www.disboards.com/threads/resort-cost-spreadsheet.3484699/

To answer the above point however, in the case of VWL and VWL2 I am saying that, ignoring the future and using the fuzzy values we started with, they are of roughly equal value. I am not saying that the future (and time value of money, etc) isn't important and should not also be considered. I am saying that the future is just a guess and you can build many different scenarios for what the future can bring. That being the case, I think a model that can compare resorts to each other using just today's money is more useful then a model that tries to forecast the future. I am very interested in being shown that I am wrong, and VWL1 vs VWL2 is about the most extreme example that I have seen.

Speaking of scenarios, imagine this:
Person 1 buys 200 points of VWL1 @ $95 for a total of $19,000
Person 2 buys 200 points of VWL2 @ $180 for a total of $36,000

After 25 years:
Person 1 has an expired contract so has $0
Person 2 sells their contract @ $310 a point for $62,000

In that case, Person 1 would have to make an interest rate of 5.32% on the $17,000 they saved on the resale market to keep parity with Person 2. Assuming that Person 2 has the money on hand to afford VWL2 retail and is planning to visit Disney for at least 25 years, then under that scenario buying resale instead of retail does make sense.

 

[pmaurer74]

I don't like that the current villas are not a part of the actual lodge. I also think that the current resale prices are too high given the contract expiration date. Keep in mind that the yearly cost in dues can approach the cost of a stay in a cash room, especially at a place like Wilderness (not true at resorts with crazy-expensive regular rooms like Contemporary and GF). I would wait on the issuing of the new points if I were you, rather than regret that you took a not-so-great deal and potentially look enviously toward the new offering when it is announced.

I own at WLV and the yearly cost of dues is $1200 for us and I can get 12 nights in a studio = $100 a night, nowhere near the cash room price of $300+. We are also getting two 2 bedroom units for 5 nights in December costing me about $2,200 in MFs, the cash stay of those rooms is about $14,000. I do wish the villas were apart of the main lodge though and I will have DVC envy when the new WLVII comes out.

 

[jerseyduke]

I don't like that the current villas are not a part of the actual lodge. I also think that the current resale prices are too high given the contract expiration date. Keep in mind that the yearly cost in dues can approach the cost of a stay in a cash room, especially at a place like Wilderness (not true at resorts with crazy-expensive regular rooms like Contemporary and GF). I would wait on the issuing of the new points if I were you, rather than regret that you took a not-so-great deal and potentially look enviously toward the new offering when it is announced.

10 nights in December (2 Weekend nights) is 152 points for a a studio (Adventure season) and that is 944.71 in dues, which is 94.47 per night. That is a long ways away from cash rates. Cash rates at the All Stars, including tax, will be more than 94.47!

Also, WL has long had rumors of occupancy issues; which spawned the rumor that some of the Lodge rooms will be converted to DVC, after the Poly. Rumors aside, the room conversion will take Lodge rooms out of inventory, which will probably increase the price on the remaining rooms. Poly rooms seem to be more expensive now, although i do not have hard data.

Furthermore, every new DVC en-devour seems to bring about more point expensive rooms. I for one can not see a Lodge room being the same number of points per night as a room at the Villas.


And if you think the resale price is high (and maybe it is), how do you react to the resale prices of BWV, and BCV, which are both higher, and still 2042 resorts?

 

[zavandor]

Furthermore, every new DVC en-devour seems to bring about more point expensive rooms. I for one can not see a Lodge room being the same number of points per night as a room at the Villas.

I agree. However they would have to justify somehow the increased expense. They cannot just say: this room costs 50-100% more points that the older villas because it's in the main lodge. They could be bigger, have a different bathroom configuration, be concierge level, have washer/dryer in studios or something else new. What would be required for you to spend the same amount of points as the Poly to stay in the new WL DVC rooms?

 

[disneynutz]

I agree. However they would have to justify somehow the increased expense. They cannot just say: this room costs 50-100% more points that the older villas because it's in the main lodge. They could be bigger, have a different bathroom configuration, be concierge level, have washer/dryer in studios or something else new. What would be required for you to spend the same amount of points as the Poly to stay in the new WL DVC rooms?

IMO they don't have to justify anything, the new rooms will have a higher point cost and a higher number of points required to book the rooms.

Bill

 

[_auroraborealis_]

They certainly didn't do much to justify the high points cost at Poly. The extra bathroom area is a lot less useful than extra living area would be.

 

[DisDadDVC]

They certainly didn't do much to justify the high points cost at Poly. The extra bathroom area is a lot less useful than extra living area would be.

I LOVED having the extra bathroom. With myself and 3 females, it really helps. There was plenty of room for the bed and the pullout, so I'm not sure what I would have done with extra living space.

 

[jerseyduke]

They will have a "better" view.
Justified.
"New" Resort.
Justified.


They might not exceed the Poly, but at least 50% more than VWL would not surprise me in the least

 

[Dean]

I agree. However they would have to justify somehow the increased expense. They cannot just say: this room costs 50-100% more points that the older villas because it's in the main lodge. They could be bigger, have a different bathroom configuration, be concierge level, have washer/dryer in studios or something else new. What would be required for you to spend the same amount of points as the Poly to stay in the new WL DVC rooms?

They really don't have to justify it. It's just another way of increasing the price and people can buy or not. They do have to sell it though and as long as people buy, that's justification enough. Early on DVC didn't do the increase points AND price as a way of further increasing prices/profits but they have done so more recently. One could argue when this started. One might say by making VWL the same as BWV was an example and could use the same argument for SSR being more than OKW. BLT was more for more and AKV likely was fairly neutral as well. For WDW I'd say VGF was the very first resort one could truly be sure they used points to increase the price itself but I could see the argument the other way Certainly the Poly was that.

 

[zavandor]

Yes, but in this case there is a full building right next door that would cost less! Even with BWV and BCV, price points are very similar (a part from standard), having different point cost structure in the same resort would be very confusing and hard to justify to potential owners. I agree that DVD can do whatever they want and they already did more than I expected, so I'm not ruling out that this could happen. But I think there should be a difference in the rooms enough to give guides an argument if people will ask why the old and new rooms have different point costs.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Yes, but in this case there is a full building right next door that would cost less!

But we quite frequently see people even here who don't realize resale is an option, have fear/concern about a 2042 end date, or worry that resale limits their point usage. So I wouldn't discount any of those factors, especially as some guides make free use of them.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I too think it will be interesting how they integrate these new rooms into DVC and deal with the point creep that has occurred since the original VWL build. Jambo/Kidani - all the same when it was done but of course just one "resort". But I find it doubtful that Disney wants to regress on the margins they have been getting with the two newest resorts which included both large point creep and large price/point increases. Throw in the resale prices for the existing VWL and it's an interesting conundrum.

 

[jerseyduke]

Yes, but in this case there is a full building right next door that would cost less! Even with BWV and BCV, price points are very similar (a part from standard), having different point cost structure in the same resort would be very confusing and hard to justify to potential owners. I agree that DVD can do whatever they want and they already did more than I expected, so I'm not ruling out that this could happen. But I think there should be a difference in the rooms enough to give guides an argument if people will ask why the old and new rooms have different point costs.

I am sure they are going to be two different resorts. Just at the same physical location.

Also, VWL2 will get 11 month booking advantage for the Bungalows. Rooms will have a better view. Really a big knock on VWL is the lack of a view. Marketing can spin this any way they want. "But you are actually in the main building" yada yada. I would prefer the view the main building offers over that of the villas.

Then again, that is a benefit to Disney of the 2 pronged pricing structure. They can make the new rooms the same point cost as the old ones. And sell the new points starting at 200 per point. Or they can raise the points per night and start selling at 170. If Disney wants 30K for a week in a studio during Season A, $per point X points needed is going equal 30K, just a question of what the two numbers are.

Also there are people who know about the resale market, and still buy direct.

I hope I am wrong, I hope the rooms are the same point rate as the villas. But I sure do not expect them to be.

 

[DisDadDVC]

I am sure they are going to be two different resorts. Just at the same physical location.

Also, VWL2 will get 11 month booking advantage for the Bungalows. Rooms will have a better view. Really a big knock on VWL is the lack of a view. Marketing can spin this any way they want. "But you are actually in the main building" yada yada. I would prefer the view the main building offers over that of the villas.

Then again, that is a benefit to Disney of the 2 pronged pricing structure. They can make the new rooms the same point cost as the old ones. And sell the new points starting at 200 per point. Or they can raise the points per night and start selling at 170. If Disney wants 30K for a week in a studio during Season A, $per point X points needed is going equal 30K, just a question of what the two numbers are.

Also there are people who know about the resale market, and still buy direct.

I hope I am wrong, I hope the rooms are the same point rate as the villas. But I sure do not expect them to be.

I don't think there is ANY chance of that.

 

[sleepydog25]

I am sure they are going to be two different resorts. Just at the same physical location.

I hope I am wrong, I hope the rooms are the same point rate as the villas. But I sure do not expect them to be.

I'm firmly in the camp that the new VWL suites will be notably higher than the current VWL suites. Beyond the value creep we've seen in recent years, DVC can easily argue--at a minimum--new materials, new floor plans, location (I actually prefer the separate building), and the fact they'll have a much later expiration date. The actual price point and points for a stay are arguable, but they'll undoubtedly go up and as with GF and Poly fans, not hard to justify the new price points at all. Apparently, PVB sales haven't gone as swimmingly as they'd hoped, so I expect 1BRs and 2BRs in the new build. All speculation at this point which is fun in its own right.

 

[Dean]

Yes, but in this case there is a full building right next door that would cost less! Even with BWV and BCV, price points are very similar (a part from standard), having different point cost structure in the same resort would be very confusing and hard to justify to potential owners. I agree that DVD can do whatever they want and they already did more than I expected, so I'm not ruling out that this could happen. But I think there should be a difference in the rooms enough to give guides an argument if people will ask why the old and new rooms have different point costs.

New, slightly different, bungalows, later RTU expiration, etc. It's really not significantly different than resale vs retail is now.

I am sure they are going to be two different resorts. Just at the same physical location.

Also, VWL2 will get 11 month booking advantage for the Bungalows. Rooms will have a better view. Really a big knock on VWL is the lack of a view. Marketing can spin this any way they want. "But you are actually in the main building" yada yada. I would prefer the view the main building offers over that of the villas.

Then again, that is a benefit to Disney of the 2 pronged pricing structure. They can make the new rooms the same point cost as the old ones. And sell the new points starting at 200 per point. Or they can raise the points per night and start selling at 170. If Disney wants 30K for a week in a studio during Season A, $per point X points needed is going equal 30K, just a question of what the two numbers are.

Also there are people who know about the resale market, and still buy direct.

I hope I am wrong, I hope the rooms are the same point rate as the villas. But I sure do not expect them to be.

I don't think there's any chance the points will be similar to the current resort setup there, IMO look at the Poly and scale them down slightly though I doubt the bungalows will be quite as high, maybe similar to where the bungalows will be after a reallocation. They couldn't legally change the points structure for the existing resort other than reallocations that are neutral overall. What they could do would be to extend the current resort and resell the points at a higher price. Other option they could do would be to convert points by swapping them out old for new. They could also institute a VIP program that would give some options not currently available. They'll likely raise the resale price for the old resort once he new sales approach. I'm sure there are other similar thoughts we could come up with.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

where the bungalows will be after a reallocation

A Poly reallocation is terrifying, because at some level I'd expect them to have to raise the points-per-night on studios to keep it point-neutral.

 

[DisDadDVC]

Picking a random date of July 12th, here is where I think VWL2 will land:

VWL1 = 17
BLT std = 19
BLT lake = 21
VWL2 = 22
PVB std = 23
PVB lake = 27