New DVC Contract for Wilderness Lodge?

[Dean]

A Poly reallocation is terrifying, because at some level I'd expect them to have to raise the points-per-night on studios to keep it point-neutral.

I think it's inevitable.

Picking a random date of July 12th, here is where I think VWL2 will land:

VWL1 = 17
BLT std = 19
BLT lake = 21
VWL2 = 22
PVB std = 23
PVB lake = 27

Weekday studio is 18 at BCV & 23/27 at both Poly and VGF. Likely overpriced at the Poly compared to VGF. If there are no view distinctions I'd guess it'd be 24 or 25, if it's standard/lake then 21 or 22/25 or 26. That assumes no special amenities or other variation. I still think they missed an opportunity to create mini 1 BR over just large studios at the Poly, where they could have had higher points still and sold more points for more profit creating a better product in the process.

 

[jerseyduke]

A Poly reallocation is terrifying, because at some level I'd expect them to have to raise the points-per-night on studios to keep it point-neutral.

I would not get too terrified.

They have 2 options in a poly reallocation:
1. Reduce the gap between the seasons of a bungalow.
2. There are 360 studios. They would have to drop a bungalow 18 points, which is more than 10% for most seasons, and that would add 1 point to a studio (assuming they treat standard and lake view the same).

Sure, a 1 point rise in studios is not something to shrug off. But, to raise it 2 points, they would have to drop the bungalows 36 points per night! That would make the bungalows a pretty decent deal.

they could of course target one view type of studio more than the other. By adding 2 points to a lake view and 1 to a studio they could drop a bunglow more than 18 points, but less than 36.

the big problem Disney has with a reallocation is the 360 to 20 (18 to 1)ratio, but then again, that can also be the idea that makes a reallocation scary.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I would not get too terrified.

I just think making Poly studios more expensive is a possibility with potentially strange consequences. I don't own Poly, so I can carry on either way, but given how expensive those points were and the number of people who are likely buying just enough, I think a consequence might be to bring many of those people into waitlists or out of the 11-month home booking because they have to consistently buy just enough one-time-use points that an add-on contract makes no sense.

The economics of the Poly from a point cost perspective (both $ and points per night) is pretty interesting.

 

[jerseyduke]

I just think making Poly studios more expensive is a possibility with potentially strange consequences. I don't own Poly, so I can carry on either way, but given how expensive those points were and the number of people who are likely buying just enough, I think a consequence might be to bring many of those people into waitlists or out of the 11-month home booking because they have to consistently buy just enough one-time-use points that an add-on contract makes no sense.

The economics of the Poly from a point cost perspective (both $ and points per night) is pretty interesting.

Very true.
The binary room choice, and at extreme ends of the spectrum, makes the economics of it very interesting. Highest form of accommodations in the Bungalows, and lowest in the studios, really poses problems. If they had 1 bedrooms and 2 bedrooms, things would be more flexible.

Time will tell.

 

[Dean]

I just think making Poly studios more expensive is a possibility with potentially strange consequences. I don't own Poly, so I can carry on either way, but given how expensive those points were and the number of people who are likely buying just enough, I think a consequence might be to bring many of those people into waitlists or out of the 11-month home booking because they have to consistently buy just enough one-time-use points that an add-on contract makes no sense.

The economics of the Poly from a point cost perspective (both $ and points per night) is pretty interesting.

If the demand for the bungalows is as low as I suspect it will be over time, they really won't have a choice. Once it's sold there really aren't any major consequences to DVD/DVC. They might have to do it over 2 years though to stay within the 10% reallocation limit.

 

[jerseyduke]

If the demand for the bungalows is as low as I suspect it will be over time, they really won't have a choice. Once it's sold there really aren't any major consequences to DVD/DVC. They might have to do it over 2 years though to stay within the 10% reallocation limit.

What is this limit? if it means they can only increase a room by 10%, does it round up? (18 + 1.8 goes to 20 - or 19?)

 

[disneylovinfamilyof6]

Anyone want to wager a guess at what WLV2 will sell for pp and when Disney will begin sales?

 

[DisDadDVC]

Anyone want to wager a guess at what WLV2 will sell for pp and when Disney will begin sales?

At whatever PVB is at the time.

 

[disneylovinfamilyof6]

At whatever PVB is at the time.

That's good news! They are selling PVB for less than BLT resale. We'd definitely be in for some WLV2 points.

 

[DisDadDVC]

That's good news! They are selling PVB for less than BLT resale. We'd definitely be in for some WLV2 points.

And I would assume there will be a $5 discount for current DVC owners at the start.

 

[disneylovinfamilyof6]

And I would assume there will be a $5 discount for current DVC owners at the start.

Nice! We are new to DVC. Is the $5 off typical for existing members on new properties?

 

[DisDadDVC]

Nice! We are new to DVC. Is the $5 off typical for existing members on new properties?

http://www.disboards.com/threads/★-☆-★-the-dvc-information-center-★-☆-★.3436037/#post-54182200

 

[jerseyduke]

I am going with pre sales to existing members at 175 per point, followed by general sales at 180.

 

[disneylovinfamilyof6]

I am going with pre sales to existing members at 175 per point, followed by general sales at 180.

No offense, but I like DisDadDVC's guess better.

 

[sleepydog25]

I am going with pre sales to existing members at 175 per point, followed by general sales at 180.

For some reason, that sounds just about right.

 

[disneylovinfamilyof6]

I am going with pre sales to existing members at 175 per point, followed by general sales at 180.

Would you consider WLV2 as "premier" of a property as BLT or VGF though? Enough to demand the same cost pp?

 

[Dean]

What is this limit? if it means they can only increase a room by 10%, does it round up? (18 + 1.8 goes to 20 - or 19?)

They can only change a given room by 10% in a year, no rules on if it's close. But they've already proven this is not deterrent, you just change it over 2 years to get more, they've been there and done that already. It actually may cost members money based on the limitation because they have to work out 2 reallocations to do more than 10% and pay people to do the work and testing.

Would you consider WLV2 as "premier" of a property as BLT or VGF though? Enough to demand the same cost pp?

IMO it is less premier than all other deluxe's except maybe AKV.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

IMO it is less premier than all other deluxe's except maybe AKV.

I think based on how people act, it probably ranks higher than Saratoga for many.

 

[Dean]

I think based on how people act, it probably ranks higher than Saratoga for many.

I wouldn't include SSR or OKW in the deluxe category, IMO they are nice resorts but far closer to moderates in many ways. My answer was with Disney's Deluxe hotel categories in mind, whether ANY DVC resorts are truly deluxe is another matter unto itself. Back years ago when there were few DVC resorts and all of the deluxe hotels were on the DC list except BWI, Disney divided them up by tiers as follows.

1. VGF
2. CR tower, BC/YC, Poly (AKL when added)
3. WL, FW cabins, CR garden
4. Moderates

That was before AKL. Then when AKL came on board, it was added to group 2 though as it evolved, I'm pretty sure Disney tended to lump it in with WL form a cost, demand and rating standpoint. They then proceeded to remove the resorts with a DVC component, I'm not sure there was much overlap when WL & AKL were both on the DC list until they opened things up again relatively recently. I've got the 1999, 200 & 2001 list and 2001-2002 book, I didn't find any time when they were listed on the same list.

 

[jerseyduke]

Many of us enjoy posting and debating here. Debating where Wilderness Lodge stands in terms of "premiere-ness" is certainly a perfectly valid debate.

However, I see it as a totally irrelevant debate with regard to how VWL2 will be priced. No, it is not as premier as VGF. But, will potential buyers be comparing its point charts to VGF? My guess is very few will.

They get the DVC sales pitch. They want to be "in the club". The will come up with an idea as to how many points they need for a typical week. Multiply that by the price per point. If they can do it, they will. The fact that they are paying the same number of points per night as the VGF will go unnoticed by the masses.

Most people really have no idea what they are buying when the buy direct from Disney. I was, to a degree, one of those. I wanted VGF when it went on sale. I did not look at point expensiveness. Even if I had, I do not know that it would have made a difference. And, if that was a mistake on my part, I am certainly not the only one who has made it!

Potential Buyer: "But it seems to me that the wilderness lodge is more expensive than the grand Floridian"
Guide: "yes but it is a newer resort, has a longer contract life"
PB: "Can I get the GF"
G: "No it is sold out"
PB: "Oh, ok"


It is all about what can be sold, and what the market will bear