New Disney Ships: News, Rumors, Speculation.....and Names!

[AquaDame]

LMGTFY-

DCL is highly unlikely to allow another cruise line to repurpose a ship. Older ships require a lot in maintenance costs and are not as fuel efficient as newer ships (nor do they have the same draw). Having recently been on the Magic I do not see her making it to 40 but it is possible if DCL is willing to put in some serious money to her upkeep.

If they could strip her of everything that makes her a "disney" ship they might... I just don't know if that would be cost effective vs. just scrapping the whole ship. Just as easily as they made a non Disney ship Disney, I imagine they could undo it as well.

 

[dreamer17555]

If they could strip her of everything that makes her a "disney" ship they might... I just don't know if that would be cost effective vs. just scrapping the whole ship. Just as easily as they made a non Disney ship Disney, I imagine they could undo it as well.

I agree they could be stripped and sold but Disney is so protective of anything they have built. Look at the Epcot Harmonious barges- they dismantled them, no attempt to find a buyer. I foresee them sending them to scrap- not allowing them to sail even if stripped of all DCL touches once they retire them. I could be wrong but it would be out of character IMO for them to do otherwise.

 

[peder]

LMGTFY-

DCL is highly unlikely to allow another cruise line to repurpose a ship. Older ships require a lot in maintenance costs and are not as fuel efficient as newer ships (nor do they have the same draw). Having recently been on the Magic I do not see her making it to 40 but it is possible if DCL is willing to put in some serious money to her upkeep.

Has the maximum age for ships increased? Presumably at some point, cruise ships stopped being belchers of emissions and there's only marginal differences in efficiency between a 30-year-old ship and a brand new one? But 30 years ago that wouldn't have been the case because early efficiency gains were more pronounced?

I wonder if at some point the argument that a ship should be retired at ~30 is outdated thinking, assuming that a ship can be refreshed periodically and still sell staterooms profitably. I think everyone assumes that the Magic and Wonder will be retired fairly soonish (and if for no other reason than defensive / protect the brand, I agree they will not sell the ship to another line), but maybe history will not be our guide with these ships as evidenced by Disney's continued investment, especially in the concierge areas of these ships?

 

[Bibbidi_Boo]

During the covid revenge travel period (Once things started going back to normal) it seemed every cruise line (including DCL) was booming which caused all of them to knee jerk IMO and start rushing to order more and more ships. Many of these ships holding 4000 + guests (across the cruise industry not just DCL). So lots of beds to fill while more and more port cities are not as friendly to the cruise industry.

The cruise lines have also started to both out price their guests and cut back on offerings in the last year- from Carnival switching up their loyalty program, to NCL charging for extra entrees, to both Royal and DCL raising prices on their newest ships to eye watering levels. I personally suspect that the cruise industry is in for a rude awakening in the next few years in the US if there is any economic downturn (which always happens eventually). It will be interesting to see if DCL keeps their commitment to 13 ships. It would not be the first time Disney announced a project and walked it back (looking at you Tony's Town Square Theater and Mary Poppin's ride).

These companies aren't dumb and are watching what is going on in the economy. They very well could be charging as high as they possiblity can now knowing that in time they will have to discount heavily.

 

[peder]

These companies aren't dumb and are watching what is going on in the economy. They very well could be charging as high as they possiblity can now knowing that in time they will have to discount heavily.

It's not related to the economy. Disney doesn't just keep a bunch of money around for a rainy day, that's poor allocation of capital. They either return the money to investors or invest back in the business. Most businesses don't "save for a rainy day" because they face constant competition, and if they aren't extremely efficient with capital investments, somebody else will be and that potentially means loss of future pricing power and/or market share.

But one thing they are ALWAYS doing is trying to profit maximize each and every transaction, with fine-tuning of pricing based on real-time statistics. To do less than this would be effectively malpractice toward its investors and even creditors.

You can see that Disney (outside of post-COVID meltup) prefers to keep a steady amount of cash / cash equivalents on hand:
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/cash-on-hand

 

[dreamer17555]

Has the maximum age for ships increased? Presumably at some point, cruise ships stopped being belchers of emissions and there's only marginal differences in efficiency between a 30-year-old ship and a brand new one? But 30 years ago that wouldn't have been the case because early efficiency gains were more pronounced?

I wonder if at some point the argument that a ship should be retired at ~30 is outdated thinking, assuming that a ship can be refreshed periodically and still sell staterooms profitably. I think everyone assumes that the Magic and Wonder will be retired fairly soonish (and if for no other reason than defensive / protect the brand, I agree they will not sell the ship to another line), but maybe history will not be our guide with these ships as evidenced by Disney's continued investment, especially in the concierge areas of these ships?

I think you are likely right but it will also depend on how much technology advances in the next 30 years and what can and cannot be retrofitted.

In 1998 no one was thinking about streaming WiFi needs on a ship- who knows where we will be in another 30. It will be interesting to see for sure but I sort of feel things become more obsolete more quickly these days. Some of it due to advancing technology, some because it seems many things do not feel like a quality (if you have needed to replace 20-30 year old appliances with the new ones you will know what I mean).

Ships might last much longer but they might not. I am looking at the glass panels breaking on the new Royal ships (not to mention the slide that broke)- they weren't regularly having that issue on older ships. It will come down to the construction and quality of supplies which comes down to how much the company is willing to invest in their ships.