Monorail - Why no expansion?

[quagmire0]

Well, it's money, but it's also priorities. Would you rather they blow all their money on expanding the Monorail, or would you rather a new park/park attraction be built? Parks and attractions attract more customers. A monorail expansion will just be received like "oh, that's nice".

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Are Disney's traffic problems serious enough that the existing transportation system needs tweaking? As you can tell from my sig, I haven't been in over ten years, and even then I always went during non-peak times.

No, they are not. You can't build to handle Christmas levels of attendance, and they handle most days just fine. Cool to talk about, but totally unnecessary.

 

[strat68]

I believe LRT (light rail) would be the ideal solution. Not as expensive (or frankly, unrealistic) as expanding the monorail but an improvement over the existing bus system. Still allows for automation.

Improved in what way? If a train goes down then nobody moves on that track. A bus? Get another one. They already have roads so why build more train tracks?

 

[dreiwhit]

No, they are not. You can't build to handle Christmas levels of attendance, and they handle most days just fine. Cool to talk about, but totally unnecessary.

That's why a scalable transportation system would work. Since its scalable, it would be easily adjustable for lower or higher numbers of people. The only scalable system would be a bus or tram system.

Not trying to hijack the thread, but the only park that I honestly hate getting into is the MK. Having to park, take a shuttle or walk to the TTC, take a monorail or ferry, and finally get to the gate. Every other park is either walk or shuttle to the gate.

 

[hedberg1661]

Helicopters. We need more helicopters. Just imagine leaving at night..."Get to the chopper!"

Sorry I couldn't resist.

 

[Jestocost]

But do all those expenses consider the cost to acquiring and clearing the land? That wouldn't be a requirement at WDW.

It's always a little murky but the adjusted Seattle costs I listed remove the right-of-way costs and some other unusual costs that Disney MIGHT not have to incur, such as two lengthy overwater runs and utility relocation. The reality is that right-of-way costs for monorails are relatively low.

If you want to get really conservative, just the costs for the trains and control systems, power supplies, beams, columns and foundations in Seattle ran $46 million per mile. That means I've left out costs for any design and project administration, maintenance facilities and even station construction. The latter alone for Seattle was budgeted at nearly $6 million each.

 

[OKW Lover]

Honestly, I think all of the above. I know this whole automation process seems to help things. At least they stop where they are supposed to and hit the correct sensors at the platforms to allow the doors to open.

OK, so the previous comment about the age of the actual monorail sets is not the (only) reason that the system is down for maintenance.

 

[Jestocost]

It's always a little murky but the adjusted Seattle costs I listed remove the right-of-way costs and some other unusual costs that Disney MIGHT not have to incur, such as two lengthy overwater runs and utility relocation. The reality is that right-of-way costs for monorails are relatively low.

If you want to get really conservative, just the costs for the trains and control systems, power supplies, beams, columns and foundations in Seattle ran $46 million per mile. That means I've left out costs for any design and project administration, maintenance facilities and even station construction. The latter alone for Seattle was budgeted at nearly $6 million each.

So, just for fun, say Disney wanted to build a little loop from the current Epcot station to the front of DHS with stops at YC/BC, S/D, DHS and BW. Depending on the route that would probably be somewhere between 3 miles and 3.5 miles of track, so just the cost for trains, track and power, plus four stations would be somewhere around $162 million. Estimate design and project management costs at around 25% of that for another $40 million, add a 10% contingency and you are--conservatively--talking about a project in the neighborhood of $220-225 million. That's more than half of what it reportedly cost to build the new Fantasyland expansion, and almost three times as much as it cost to build TSMM.

 

[Robo]

So, just for fun, say Disney wanted to build a little loop from the current Epcot station to the front of DHS with stops at YC/BC, S/D, DHS and BW. Depending on the route that would probably be somewhere between 3 miles and 3.5 miles of track, so just the cost for trains, track and power, plus four stations would be somewhere around $162 million. Estimate design and project management costs at around 25% of that for another $40 million, add a 10% contingency and you are--conservatively--talking about a project in the neighborhood of $220-225 million. That's more than half of what it reportedly cost to build the new Fantasyland expansion, and more than twice as much as it cost to build TSMM.

That's not too bad a cost, really.
(Considering the colossal boondoggle of MyMagic+, costing (and cost over-running) between one and two BILLION dollars!)

Many don't know that the Epcot Monorail station was originally designed and blueprinted to eventually have a second beam, to be added in the future.
You can look at the current station and see that it LOOKS like sort of a "half" of a larger structure
(it is asymmetrical) and its "twin" half was to be built to the east of the current platform.

The sidewalk/parking lot area to the east of (and below) the current Epcot station had large support bases that were
poured during the original construction, in anticipation of the future additional monorail operating out of there.
Those supports remained there for years (sort of in the way) until sometime in the last ten years, at which time Disney
(deciding that there would be no more beams or monorails added) had the supports demolished and removed.

 

[Jestocost]

That's not too bad a cost, really.
(Considering the colossal boondoggle of MyMagic+, costing (and cost over-running) between one and two BILLION dollars!)

Many don't know that the Epcot Monorail station was originally designed and blueprinted to eventually have a second beam, to be added in the future.
You can look at the current station and see that it LOOKS like sort of a "half" of a larger structure
(it is asymmetrical) and its "twin" half was to be built to the east of the current platform.

The sidewalk/parking lot area to the east of (and below) the current Epcot station had large support bases that were
poured during the original construction, in anticipation of the future additional monorail operating out of there.
Those supports remained there for years (sort of in the way) until sometime in the last ten years, at which time Disney
(deciding that there would be no more beams or monorails added) had the supports demolished and removed.

Maybe not too bad. But considering I would expect that loop to realistically cost upwards of $250 million (I didn't include a new maintenance facility, for example) and that it likely wouldn't show anywhere close to the ROI that MyMagic+ did on paper, it's not happening any time soon (or ever).

 

[maxiesmom]

That's why a scalable transportation system would work. Since its scalable, it would be easily adjustable for lower or higher numbers of people. The only scalable system would be a bus or tram system.

Not trying to hijack the thread, but the only park that I honestly hate getting into is the MK. Having to park, take a shuttle or walk to the TTC, take a monorail or ferry, and finally get to the gate. Every other park is either walk or shuttle to the gate.

If you stay on site a bus drops you off right at the park. No shuttle/monorail/ferry needed.

 

[Skywise]

So, just for fun, say Disney wanted to build a little loop from the current Epcot station to the front of DHS with stops at YC/BC, S/D, DHS and BW. Depending on the route that would probably be somewhere between 3 miles and 3.5 miles of track, so just the cost for trains, track and power, plus four stations would be somewhere around $162 million. Estimate design and project management costs at around 25% of that for another $40 million, add a 10% contingency and you are--conservatively--talking about a project in the neighborhood of $220-225 million. That's more than half of what it reportedly cost to build the new Fantasyland expansion, and almost three times as much as it cost to build TSMM.

Yeah, but would it go through the monorail port already built into the Swan and Dolphin?

Actually that's really not bad - $225 million amortized over 30 years is 7.5 million a year or $21,000 a day and MK alone brings in about 4 mil a day just on ticket sales. If you can tie Epcot resort sales to that you've increased the revenue potential of not one but 7 properties (Epcot, DHS and the resorts) (which is intangible because you really can't put a number on that but it will happen plus make it easier to get from DHS to Epcot once Toy Story Land and Star Wars land show up so you spend the day at Star Wars land then have dinner at Epcot)

Heck - you would've just increased the value of the Epcot resorts anyway so just increase the rates there!

 

[OKW Lover]

That's not too bad a cost, really.
(Considering the colossal boondoggle of MyMagic+, costing (and cost over-running) between one and two BILLION dollars!)

Many don't know that the Epcot Monorail station was originally designed and blueprinted to eventually have a second beam, to be added in the future.
You can look at the current station and see that it LOOKS like sort of a "half" of a larger structure
(it is asymmetrical) and its "twin" half was to be built to the east of the current platform.

The sidewalk/parking lot area to the east of (and below) the current Epcot station had large support bases that were
poured during the original construction, in anticipation of the future additional monorail operating out of there.
Those supports remained there for years (sort of in the way) until sometime in the last ten years, at which time Disney
(deciding that there would be no more beams or monorails added) had the supports demolished and removed.

Interesting Robo. I don't recall any demo work near the station in the past 10 years though.

 

[RedAngie]

Consider that the MK monorail does not go to Epcot.
There is a transfer point (to another loop) at TTC.
If not, and they needed to do a repair on any of the Epcot route, they'd have to shut down the MK loop. (All one loop.)

If they built a TTC-Epcot-DHS-DAK route as one HUGE track loop, if there was a breakdown of a train on that loop, or there was a problem with a section of the beam,
the ENTIRE loop:
from TTC to Epcot to DHS to DAK, and back to DHS and Epcot and TTC,
would be shut down. (All one loop.)

They COULD spend more and have a series of switches every half mile or so to divert trains around breakdowns or other problems, like they have on heavy rail subways or elevated trains. But a train switching tracks on a monorail isn't necessarily easy or efficient. Another major limitation and drawback of that mode of transportation.

 

[OKW Lover]

They COULD spend more and have a series of switches every half mile or so to divert trains around breakdowns or other problems, like they have on heavy rail subways or elevated trains. But a train switching tracks on a monorail isn't necessarily easy or efficient.

Agree its not a good solution. We've been stuck on the monorail while switching was occurring. Its a long wait before traffic resumes normal.

 

[k5jm]

FWIW, the right-of-way easement for monorail expansion still exists.

 

[jmkjr72]

System type Cost/Year Info Source System Status

Hitachi


$15 million/km
1964


Tokyo-Haneda Monorail


Operating

Hitachi


$62 million/km
1985


Kitakyushu Monorail


Operating

VSL-
(refurbished Mark IV trains)


$25 million/mile
1995


MGM-Bally's Monorail


Replaced with Bombardier system

Hitachi


$27 million/km
$44 million/mile
2003


Okinawa Monorail


Operating

Kuala Lumpur
MTrans


$36 million/km
2003


Kuala Lumpur Monorail


Operating

Bombardier MVI


$88 million/mile
2004


Las Vegas Monorail
(7 stations/4 miles)


Operating

Hitachi$73.4 million/km
2006Palm Jumeirah MonorailOperating

Metrail


$20 million/km
2008


Metrail


Contracted

Scomi


$27.25 million/km
2008


Mumbai Monorail
(Rites Ltd.)


Operating (2014)

 

[zaccaglin]

Honestly, I think all of the above. I know this whole automation process seems to help things. At least they stop where they are supposed to and hit the correct sensors at the platforms to allow the doors to open.

Not sure where you've been, but during the testing the trains have not stopped where they should dead on but maybe 15% of the time. They're always off by a few inches or so.

 

[Jestocost]

System type Cost/Year Info Source System Status

Hitachi


$15 million/km
1964


Tokyo-Haneda Monorail


Operating

Hitachi


$62 million/km
1985


Kitakyushu Monorail


Operating

VSL-
(refurbished Mark IV trains)


$25 million/mile
1995


MGM-Bally's Monorail


Replaced with Bombardier system

Hitachi


$27 million/km
$44 million/mile
2003


Okinawa Monorail


Operating

Kuala Lumpur
MTrans


$36 million/km
2003


Kuala Lumpur Monorail


Operating

Bombardier MVI


$88 million/mile
2004


Las Vegas Monorail
(7 stations/4 miles)


Operating

Hitachi$73.4 million/km
2006Palm Jumeirah MonorailOperating

Metrail


$20 million/km
2008


Metrail


Contracted

Scomi


$27.25 million/km
2008


Mumbai Monorail
(Rites Ltd.)


Operating (2014)

Not much good without full disclosure that this is from a site set up by an organization that promotes monorail use.

You could go to the other extreme, of course, and use a table set up by an organization that promotes light rail.

Table 1.
Urban Monorails:
System installation Cost
Cost per Mile ($ Millions, 2002)

Chiba (Japan): Monorail (extension) 128.2

Jacksonville: Skyway (new) 81.1

Kitakyushu (Japan): Monorail (new) 205.9

Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) (new) 58.2

Las Vegas (LVMC Project, new) 166.7

Newark: Monorail AGT (new) 223.1

Okinawa (Japan): Monorail (new) 103.9


Average: 138.2

[Sources: Capital Metro, Rapid Transit Project, ADraft B Milestone 2 Executive Summary: Urban Transit Vehicles@, 1 October 2001; Steve Arrington, Jacksonville Transportation Authority, 12 October 2001; Leroy Demery, Jr., May 2002; Monorail Malaysia, news release, 23 April 2001; Jacob Snow, AThe Las Vegas Monorail@, Monorail Society website, 2002/11/02. Calculations by LRP]

Or you could use the more reasonable estimates I have provided previously.

 

[zaccaglin]

Have the problems been with the vehicles? With the track? With the switching equipment? With the MAPO control system?

All of the above. Trains need some serious maintenance, but shop says they don't get enough time. The Epcot beam was built by WDI here in FL and wasn't built to the same quality as the original beams from Washington were. The MAPO transponders are outdated and shop can't get some of the components. Then when they do have the parts they never have enough to take out for the replacement when lightning takes out 6 at a time.. Switches believe it or not usually work without a flaw, they are probably the simplest part of the whole system. I don't think they've had to hand crank them in a while.